The election of Trump is only going to increase Iran's involvement in Lebanon and Yemen, not to mention their continued domination of Iraq. Now the Iranians have even less of a reason to negotiate, or permit Hezbollah and the Houthis to negotiate with anybody.
Iran's lready got evidence that a second Trump administration i…
The election of Trump is only going to increase Iran's involvement in Lebanon and Yemen, not to mention their continued domination of Iraq. Now the Iranians have even less of a reason to negotiate, or permit Hezbollah and the Houthis to negotiate with anybody.
Iran's lready got evidence that a second Trump administration is likely going to target them (the drone strike on Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad and the US unilaterally pulling out of the nuclear deal.) A proxy war in Lebanon is the cheapest way for them to fight the US and Israel.
Given Trump's anti-Chinese rhetoric and likely trade war, Xi's also now got an even bigger reason to keep supporting Hamas. The more the US is sucked back into the Middle East, the easier it is for China in the Pacific.
Additionally, what Trumpists (and Bibi) really don't understand is the same thing W and American policymakers didn't understand when the US invaded Afghanistan.
The Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist groups are "ideas" just as much as they are organizations. You can't militarily defeat ideas. Furthermore, some of these groups will continue to garner support because they provide social services the local government is unwilling or unable to provide.
You can destroy the fighting force militarily, but absent replacing them with a better idea and a more effective government you're going to lose. It's just going to take you longer to lose.
Hamas has already been utterly destroyed as a capable fighting force, and according to a October 28 report issued by the Institute for the Study of War, Hezbollah is "badly damaged" and disorganized.
However, none of this actually matters all that much. If Israel ends combat operations it'll only take a matter of a few months, at most, before Hamas and Hezbollah regroup and rearm or successor organizations form. Especially with the aid of client states like Iran and China.
The people who learned the most from America's 20-year misadventure in the Middle East are the terrorists, Iran and China.
The "best" Trump and Bibi are going to get in Gaza and Lebanon is an Iraq and Vietnam-like quagmire.
No, they're not.
The election of Trump is only going to increase Iran's involvement in Lebanon and Yemen, not to mention their continued domination of Iraq. Now the Iranians have even less of a reason to negotiate, or permit Hezbollah and the Houthis to negotiate with anybody.
Iran's lready got evidence that a second Trump administration is likely going to target them (the drone strike on Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad and the US unilaterally pulling out of the nuclear deal.) A proxy war in Lebanon is the cheapest way for them to fight the US and Israel.
Given Trump's anti-Chinese rhetoric and likely trade war, Xi's also now got an even bigger reason to keep supporting Hamas. The more the US is sucked back into the Middle East, the easier it is for China in the Pacific.
Additionally, what Trumpists (and Bibi) really don't understand is the same thing W and American policymakers didn't understand when the US invaded Afghanistan.
The Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist groups are "ideas" just as much as they are organizations. You can't militarily defeat ideas. Furthermore, some of these groups will continue to garner support because they provide social services the local government is unwilling or unable to provide.
You can destroy the fighting force militarily, but absent replacing them with a better idea and a more effective government you're going to lose. It's just going to take you longer to lose.
Hamas has already been utterly destroyed as a capable fighting force, and according to a October 28 report issued by the Institute for the Study of War, Hezbollah is "badly damaged" and disorganized.
However, none of this actually matters all that much. If Israel ends combat operations it'll only take a matter of a few months, at most, before Hamas and Hezbollah regroup and rearm or successor organizations form. Especially with the aid of client states like Iran and China.
The people who learned the most from America's 20-year misadventure in the Middle East are the terrorists, Iran and China.
The "best" Trump and Bibi are going to get in Gaza and Lebanon is an Iraq and Vietnam-like quagmire.