How We Hold the Senate

My two picks for where to strategically donate this year to help hold the chamber

This is a nail biter of an election, particularly for the White House and the Senate. We’ve done amazing work here as a community supporting the Harris for President campaign as well as three key House races that could help determine the majority in that chamber.

But what about the Senate?

Let’s be clear-eyed here. This is a very difficult map. Democrats are defending many seats, while there are only a few realistic pick-up opportunities for them. We have a 51-49 majority, but it’s really a 50-50 split because there is no way that we can hold West Virginia without Joe Manchin running for his old seat.

A net loss for Democrats of a single seat outside of the one down in West Virginia results in Republican control of the Senate. And that means gridlock on judicial appointments and far less that can be accomplished legislatively under a Harris administration.

The good news is that Democrats are consistently leading, at least in the polls, for what they’re worth, in the key battleground states. And in Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a slim lead over his extremist GOP challenger.

That leaves Sen. Jon Tester in Montana, who unfortunately is currently trailing in the polls. Our job is to help turn things around and prove those polls wrong. Montana is a state that went heavily for Trump, making Tester something of a political unicorn. His race is winnable, but it’s the toughest in the country. And we need him in the Senate.

If Tester loses, we need some kind of insurance policy. That means picking up a seat, and our best chance to flip one is either in Florida or Texas. I’m leaning toward Florida and senatorial candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

I like her race and chances for three reasons. First, incumbent Senator Rick Scott is vulnerable and unpopular in his own state—some believe even more so than Sen. Ted Cruz is in Texas. Second, Mucarsel-Powell is a Latina running in a year where another minority woman is at the top of the ticket, and she can tap into key demographic support and voter outrage over extremist policies.

The third reason is common to both Tester and Mucarsel-Powell: Abortion rights are on the ballot in their respective states. Reproductive rights activists have fought hard to put constitutional amendments restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade up for a vote in November in both Florida and Montana (as well as other key states like Arizona and Nevada). This will increase voter turnout among women and young people—perhaps enough to overcome whatever is being missed in the polling, just as we’ve seen elsewhere.

Before you ask, “But what about…?” let me acknowledge that, yes, there are many other important senate races out there, including wildcard possibilities such as an independent flipping the GOP seat in Nebraska and a pick-up in Texas. And yes, we face difficult races in other states including Ohio, Maryland, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin to name a few. But if the national mood is such that we can’t hold all of these races, we probably can’t win Montana and Florida anyway.

The hard math lays it out plainly: If we lose Montana and can’t make up for it somewhere else like Florida, we will lose our Senate majority. That’s why my advice today is, if you’re going to make any donations this year in the Senate races, contribute to Sen. Jon Tester in Montana and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida.

Here’s how:

To re-elect Jon Tester of Montana:

To elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Florida:

Note: Some of you have commented in the past that you won’t use Act Blue because of the emails and texts that inevitably follow. I understand this concern and I share your pain. I delete hundreds of texts and emails daily. But this nuisance is short-lived, and it’s a small price to pay, I believe, to help save our democracy, restore integrity to our courts, and move forward as a country under Harris with a trifecta of government.

But if it’s seriously too much for you, please instead send checks! Here is where to donate by mail:

Montanans for Tester, P.O. Box 1135 Helena, MT, 59624

Debbie for Florida, P.O. Box 432250, South Miami, FL 33243

Thanks for listening, and comment below if you have joined in this effort!

Jay