Speaker Kevin McCarthy is all over my news feed. But is that a good thing? It’s certainly a bit head-spinning. McCarthy is fresh off a win in the House, having recently squeaked through a debt ceiling bill that ties huge federal spending cuts to raising the borrowing limit of the U.S. Treasury. Flushed with new-found confidence, McCarthy also flexed for international audiences on Ukraine, stunning many by berating a Russian reporter who had assumed McCarthy was opposed to further Ukraine aid (as he has indicated consistently in the past). McCarthy declared that, now, he fully supports aid to the country.
Thank you for breaking this down for us. Why is the debt ceiling only an issue when a Democrat is POTUS? It's exhausting. We've seen this movie so many times before.
One other explanation for McCarthy's turnabout on Ukraine is that the military industrial complex explained to him that most of the money sent to Ukraine is in the form of hardware purchased from them. (Or equipment owned by the U.S. military that will then be backfilled by new purchases of the latest models from the military industrial complex.)
I used to work for a large defense contractor. One memorable "All Hands" meeting featured our lobbyist. Paraphrasing; He explained that he only has so much money to throw around so he has to be strategic who he bribes - oops I mean - donates to.
At this moment in time, any Dem, even if on their deathbed, should be wheeled into Congress on a gurney to vote on matters like this. John McCain managed to get his critical, game-changing vote in. Things are that tight.
I was thinking the same thing.... I mean... unless there was a death in the family.... a heart attack... a ruptured appendix. .. They had BETTER not have been golfing!
As for Raskin his doc may have told him to avoid large gatherings for some period of time. Chemo for that kind of cancer takes a toll on the immune system.
Sinema and Manchin I worry and wonder about. The latter especially...he wants all the climate stuff rescinded, does he blow up anything the Senate puts forth, along with Sinema, who's bought and paid for by some of the biggest GOP donors? Basically, if both were in the House, they would have voted for the DOA bill.
What happened to remote or proxy voting? I'm guessing Schumer showed his "brilliance" yet again by letting it expire/not re-enabling it since COVID is "over"?
Deeply clueless of him with such a narrow majority . . .
Thank you SO much for this - this is such fantastic information and, while, as you said, this whole situation is still VERY anxiety-inducing, it's good to know there are some workarounds. Frankly, I don't flipping care how many legislative days they have in May - they should be made to work nights and weekends, every single day between now and June 1 to fix this.
Re: Ukraine. I am originally from Ukraine, my parents still live there - in Zaporizhzhia, 30 miles from the occupied territory. I despise McCarthy from the bottom of my heart for his shenanigans, including his past playing games with the lives of my fellow Ukrainians. BUT the faces of the reporter who asked him the question about aid to Ukraine and the rest of the audience were PRICELESS! I want to have that playing on a loop. It was a good laugh.
Schumer should thank Speaker McCarthy for forwarding a bill then can accept an amendment wiping out all of the provisions except raising the debt limit. Promising open negotiations on the 2024 budget. In that way he puts all of the Rep Senators - and Manchin and Sinema - on the spot to vote against it. They won't. It goes back to the house where the Problem Solvers Caucus calls the question. All it takes is 5 reps to support it along with all the dems and the problem goes away (at least for a moment.) Yes, McCarthy will likely face removal but this way he holds the chair if all the dems and even 5 reps agree to move on. Fantasy? No doubt but one can always hope.
McCarthy usually speaks in line with whatever breeze happens to be passing by at the moment. The meaning of whatever comes out of his mouth is irrelevant.
"There's no such thing as good faith hostage taking."
- end scene-
But, also, why are we beholden, why is the better part of the globe beholden to a merry band of buffoons? Why discuss the merits of a thing that is meritless?
We need to be done indulging the petty, perverse ill-intentioned ridiculousness- by doing so we are helping to breathe to life a monster molded with rancid clay....let's just....not
You mention “sane members” remaining in the House. Wonder who they are. Do any of the sane have Rs next to their names?
You have pointed out the insanity and McCarthy’s deal with the devil. The point about the Rules Committee is especially disturbing.
Which brings me to the conclusion that there are simply too many Republicans in the House.
Here is my solution. And note I have posted a similar idea on other SubStack platforms.
Here is an idea for the “Less-extreme” GOP members in the House.
Seven Steps to avoid disaster and set our country back on the rails:
For those who have a remnant of a conscience and haven’t yet sold their soul, there is a way out.
First, reconnect with your spine.
Second, find others like you in the House.
Third, call for a vote on McCarthy. Thanks to the “Loss of Freedom Caucus” it only takes one of you to call for the vote.
Fourth, be absent for the first roll call vote.
Fifth, when they go around a second time to pick up the stragglers, vote for Rep Jeffries.
Sixth, immediately call a press conference and declare that you are leaving the Republican Party. If you don’t feel good about joining the party of sanity (Democrats) then become Independent.
Seventh, when asked with whom you will caucus……say Democrats. And watch the insane howl and the weak-hearted drop.
The only ones who would do this are the very few who do not wish to be re-elected. I realize this goes directly to the "reconnect with your spine" part of your solution, but that's the hardest part. Anyone who does this will face a primary opponent funded by every imaginable super pac.
Most of those reps are from gerrymandered districts. Running as a Dem might as well just not run. They'd have to be running as Independent, and even then, there would have to be either NO Democratic opposition, or a very weak candidate. Those districts are gonna elect a Republican - the only question is which one.
Is there anyone in the Republican Party that wants to be speaker? I didn't notice anyone challenging McCarthy for the position in the last go a round. It's hard to imagine wanting to Herd that bunch of loonies.
Thank you once again for your excellent reportage and analysis.
To my mind, a newly constituted House that uses the debt ceiling to repudiate the budget passed by the previous House, and for which the nation is already on the hook, is taking a "second bite at the apple." Their party had a chance to vote for or against this budget, the budget passed, and it should now be considered the law of the land. They get to work on the NEXT BUDGET, not renege on the promise to pay last one. Article 14 Section 4 should be executed with or without House approval.
McCarthy is going to have to lay his most precious card on the table, that of his own position, if he wants to avoid the chaos of a default on US debt. He won't get a 'reasonable' bill passed on a party line vote that links the debt limit to the budget. But, he'd be foolish to forget that there are 211 Democratic votes available to pass legislation if he writes something that can garner support from across the isle. There are several ways to approach a balanced budget. The first, which is program spending cuts, isn't flying with the Executive or the Senate. The second, which is raising revenue, won't fly with the radical fringe of the GOP. Simply harvesting uncollected tax sends them into a frenzy. A third is a combination of both. A fourth is freezing 2024 spending at the 2023 target and developing a budget on that basis. The budget is a genuine political form of sausage making. I have no idea why invoking the 14th amendment seems like such a last resort. The house has already demonstrated it can't carry out it's customary and expected role in governing, so why not keep the chaos contained there rather than spread it to the international financial markets? Dragging the maneuvers out to the last minute puts a stamp of EMERGENCY on the 14th amendment gambit rather than "business as usual" under these circumstances. I say, squash the bugs with the constitution.
Thank you for breaking this down for us. Why is the debt ceiling only an issue when a Democrat is POTUS? It's exhausting. We've seen this movie so many times before.
Such hypocrisy
Good point!
Does McCarthy truly not understand how much the far-right owns him, or is he just closing has eyes and flooring the accelerator?
My predictions:
1) McCarthy loses the speakership in all scenarios.
2) Biden will end up invoking Section 4 of the 14th Amendment. It is really hard to see any other outcome.
Or, as I will write about tomorrow, a discharge petition emerges!
I just saw a story about it today. Seems they managed to submit a very generic discharge petition back in January. I'm happily surprised.
I happen to agree. They are basking in the drama of appearing to be able to yank chains.
One other explanation for McCarthy's turnabout on Ukraine is that the military industrial complex explained to him that most of the money sent to Ukraine is in the form of hardware purchased from them. (Or equipment owned by the U.S. military that will then be backfilled by new purchases of the latest models from the military industrial complex.)
I agree.
I used to work for a large defense contractor. One memorable "All Hands" meeting featured our lobbyist. Paraphrasing; He explained that he only has so much money to throw around so he has to be strategic who he bribes - oops I mean - donates to.
That seems the most likely reason why McCarthy did a reversal on Ukraine.
And actually I do t really care about the reason. I support Ukraine. Of course the mercurial Just OK Kevin may say something different tomorrow.
Great write up Jay, as usual, and whew!
But—who were the two dems that didn’t show up to vote?!? WTH?!
At this moment in time, any Dem, even if on their deathbed, should be wheeled into Congress on a gurney to vote on matters like this. John McCain managed to get his critical, game-changing vote in. Things are that tight.
I think one was J Raskin who is recovering from cancer chemotherapy.
I was thinking the same thing.... I mean... unless there was a death in the family.... a heart attack... a ruptured appendix. .. They had BETTER not have been golfing!
I doubt it.
As for Raskin his doc may have told him to avoid large gatherings for some period of time. Chemo for that kind of cancer takes a toll on the immune system.
Sinema and Manchin I worry and wonder about. The latter especially...he wants all the climate stuff rescinded, does he blow up anything the Senate puts forth, along with Sinema, who's bought and paid for by some of the biggest GOP donors? Basically, if both were in the House, they would have voted for the DOA bill.
I am worried also that Sen. Feinstein is still not well enough to come to work...
What happened to remote or proxy voting? I'm guessing Schumer showed his "brilliance" yet again by letting it expire/not re-enabling it since COVID is "over"?
Deeply clueless of him with such a narrow majority . . .
Thank you SO much for this - this is such fantastic information and, while, as you said, this whole situation is still VERY anxiety-inducing, it's good to know there are some workarounds. Frankly, I don't flipping care how many legislative days they have in May - they should be made to work nights and weekends, every single day between now and June 1 to fix this.
Re: Ukraine. I am originally from Ukraine, my parents still live there - in Zaporizhzhia, 30 miles from the occupied territory. I despise McCarthy from the bottom of my heart for his shenanigans, including his past playing games with the lives of my fellow Ukrainians. BUT the faces of the reporter who asked him the question about aid to Ukraine and the rest of the audience were PRICELESS! I want to have that playing on a loop. It was a good laugh.
Schumer should thank Speaker McCarthy for forwarding a bill then can accept an amendment wiping out all of the provisions except raising the debt limit. Promising open negotiations on the 2024 budget. In that way he puts all of the Rep Senators - and Manchin and Sinema - on the spot to vote against it. They won't. It goes back to the house where the Problem Solvers Caucus calls the question. All it takes is 5 reps to support it along with all the dems and the problem goes away (at least for a moment.) Yes, McCarthy will likely face removal but this way he holds the chair if all the dems and even 5 reps agree to move on. Fantasy? No doubt but one can always hope.
EXACTLY!! Sadly, there aren't 50 votes since Feinstein won't show up to work . . .
McCarthy usually speaks in line with whatever breeze happens to be passing by at the moment. The meaning of whatever comes out of his mouth is irrelevant.
"There's no such thing as good faith hostage taking."
- end scene-
But, also, why are we beholden, why is the better part of the globe beholden to a merry band of buffoons? Why discuss the merits of a thing that is meritless?
We need to be done indulging the petty, perverse ill-intentioned ridiculousness- by doing so we are helping to breathe to life a monster molded with rancid clay....let's just....not
You mention “sane members” remaining in the House. Wonder who they are. Do any of the sane have Rs next to their names?
You have pointed out the insanity and McCarthy’s deal with the devil. The point about the Rules Committee is especially disturbing.
Which brings me to the conclusion that there are simply too many Republicans in the House.
Here is my solution. And note I have posted a similar idea on other SubStack platforms.
Here is an idea for the “Less-extreme” GOP members in the House.
Seven Steps to avoid disaster and set our country back on the rails:
For those who have a remnant of a conscience and haven’t yet sold their soul, there is a way out.
First, reconnect with your spine.
Second, find others like you in the House.
Third, call for a vote on McCarthy. Thanks to the “Loss of Freedom Caucus” it only takes one of you to call for the vote.
Fourth, be absent for the first roll call vote.
Fifth, when they go around a second time to pick up the stragglers, vote for Rep Jeffries.
Sixth, immediately call a press conference and declare that you are leaving the Republican Party. If you don’t feel good about joining the party of sanity (Democrats) then become Independent.
Seventh, when asked with whom you will caucus……say Democrats. And watch the insane howl and the weak-hearted drop.
The only ones who would do this are the very few who do not wish to be re-elected. I realize this goes directly to the "reconnect with your spine" part of your solution, but that's the hardest part. Anyone who does this will face a primary opponent funded by every imaginable super pac.
Unless they were to run as a Democrat. Which would only work if they actually changed their party affiliation.
Most of those reps are from gerrymandered districts. Running as a Dem might as well just not run. They'd have to be running as Independent, and even then, there would have to be either NO Democratic opposition, or a very weak candidate. Those districts are gonna elect a Republican - the only question is which one.
Is there anyone in the Republican Party that wants to be speaker? I didn't notice anyone challenging McCarthy for the position in the last go a round. It's hard to imagine wanting to Herd that bunch of loonies.
As you are probably aware, you can't easily herd cats. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_MaJDK3VNE&ab_channel=CBS
This country is in a shambles because of these minority extremists. How much farther will we tolerate their terrorism?
Thank you once again for your excellent reportage and analysis.
To my mind, a newly constituted House that uses the debt ceiling to repudiate the budget passed by the previous House, and for which the nation is already on the hook, is taking a "second bite at the apple." Their party had a chance to vote for or against this budget, the budget passed, and it should now be considered the law of the land. They get to work on the NEXT BUDGET, not renege on the promise to pay last one. Article 14 Section 4 should be executed with or without House approval.
You have such a gift being able to write and explain all of that. I can’t thank you enough.
McCarthy is going to have to lay his most precious card on the table, that of his own position, if he wants to avoid the chaos of a default on US debt. He won't get a 'reasonable' bill passed on a party line vote that links the debt limit to the budget. But, he'd be foolish to forget that there are 211 Democratic votes available to pass legislation if he writes something that can garner support from across the isle. There are several ways to approach a balanced budget. The first, which is program spending cuts, isn't flying with the Executive or the Senate. The second, which is raising revenue, won't fly with the radical fringe of the GOP. Simply harvesting uncollected tax sends them into a frenzy. A third is a combination of both. A fourth is freezing 2024 spending at the 2023 target and developing a budget on that basis. The budget is a genuine political form of sausage making. I have no idea why invoking the 14th amendment seems like such a last resort. The house has already demonstrated it can't carry out it's customary and expected role in governing, so why not keep the chaos contained there rather than spread it to the international financial markets? Dragging the maneuvers out to the last minute puts a stamp of EMERGENCY on the 14th amendment gambit rather than "business as usual" under these circumstances. I say, squash the bugs with the constitution.