Kevin McCarthy, You In Danger

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call / Getty Images

It was supposed to be 95 percent. That’s the number of House Republicans that Speaker Kevin McCarthy initially predicted would back his budget and debt ceiling bill, once negotiations with the White House concluded Saturday night. In response to a critical tweet by Rep. Dan Bishop of the Freedom Caucus, McCarthy assured reporters that there was no issue, saying, “More than 95 percent of all those in the conference were very excited."

Perhaps by “very excited,” McCarthy had included GOP members who were indeed so, just in a very bad way.

As the terms of the deal became publicly known, outrage within the Republican caucus began to build. I’ve been following the rhetoric and the organizing against the bill over the past two days, and it’s now clear that McCarthy is now facing some serious opposition.

As a vote draws near, how are things looking for its passage? And will Kevin McCarthy face a motion to vacate over forcing his party to eat what one member colorfully has dubbed a “turd sandwich”? 

Today, let’s lift the rock and take a look at the little rollie pollies of the GOP.

The bill survives a key test

It all could have ended last night, and it almost did. Few people, other than diehard political nerds, were aware of the high drama playing out in the House Rules Committee, and that’s probably a good thing both for our democracy and our collective sanity.

First, let’s not pretend people are supposed to know what the Rules Committee does. At the risk of oversimplification, the Committee sets rules around bills, such as whether and when they can move to the floor, and importantly whether they can be amended or must be voted on as-is. It’s very wonky, but it’s key to the power of the Speaker of the House.

Speakers normally appoint loyalists to the 13-person Committee to ensure their will is done. But this year, McCarthy had a problem. In order to gain their votes to make him Speaker, he promised three out of the nine GOP seats on the Committee to the radical House “Freedom” Caucus (HFC). On top of that, McCarthy agreed that only bills receiving at least seven GOP committee members’ votes could advance out of it. When you do the math, that means every bill needs at least one HFC member’s support to move forward.

In other words, McCarthy handed the HFC a veto, and that deal with the devil nearly tipped the entire country into catastrophe.

Last night, two of the HFC members—Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC)—voted against moving the bill to the floor. “Not one Republican should vote for this bill,” thundered Roy a few hours before the committee vote. “We will continue to fight it today, tomorrow, and no matter what happens, there’s going to be a reckoning about what just occurred unless we stop this bill by tomorrow.”

That meant it fell to another HFC member, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), to cast the deciding vote. (All four Democrats on the Rules Committee voted against moving the bill forward, but this doesn’t mean that they actually want the bill to fail. Votes in the Committee are typically party-line, with the majority-party supporting the rule and the minority voting against it. Here, per usual, the GOP would have to bail itself out on McCarthy’s bill without the Democrats’ help—in short, no political cover. In any event, under the informal seven-GOP member minimum rule agreed to by the HFC and McCarthy, the Democratic votes are always irrelevant. That means they could cast their votes against the bill, per usual, and as a protest over not having a clean debt ceiling bill in the first place. They could do this while knowing that Massie’s probable “yes” vote would splinter the HFC.)

Massie has many misgivings about the bill, but he did write some of the bill himself, so it was likely he wouldn’t vote it down. Massie pointed to what he called a “redeeming portion” of the agreement that cuts both defense spending and nondefense spending by one percent if all 12 appropriations bills are not signed into law by January 1st of fiscal years 2024 and 2025. The provision sets up a game of chicken: The Democrats don’t want to see nondefense spending slashed, and the GOP don’t want to see defense spending slashed. This means we will likely see a fight later this year over how money gets appropriated, but the limits of that are already set by the rules of this bill, assuming it passes.

In the end Massie sided with McCarthy, and the bill got out of the Rules Committee by a squeaker vote of seven to six, with all seven “yes” votes from the GOP just barely enough to send it through to the floor. I imagine that the HFC is going through some real fractures as a result.

20? 30? 100 votes against?

It was already clear that most of the HFC would oppose the bill. That meant some 20-30 votes against the bill already. 

Then, some existing supporters of McCarthy began to voice their dissent. “The concessions made by the speaker in his negotiations with President Biden fall far short of my expectations and the expectations of my friends and neighbors in Congressional District 38,” tweeted Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), who had backed McCarthy in the speaker race.

“Washington is broken. Republicans got outsmarted by a President who can’t find his pants. I’m voting NO on the debt ceiling debacle because playing the DC game isn’t worth selling out our kids and grandkids,” declared Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), seeming to imply McCarthy is stupider than someone with mental deficiencies. Mace is considered by many to be a “swing” GOP vote in the House.

Powerful extremist lobbying groups, including the Heritage Foundation, the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks, have begun campaigning against the bill, vowing to downgrade the scores of GOP representatives based on how they vote.

McCarthy will need to work hard through today to rally support for the bill from GOP members. Key to his plans are more “centrist” GOP representatives in the Problem Solvers Caucus as well as defectors from the HFC, including two powerful allies: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who have both signaled their support. Greene continued the disgusting metaphor begun by Rep. Roy, labeling the bill a “shit sandwich” that she wants some “good sides” with, including impeachment language. (Narrator: She will get no impeachment sides with her sandwich.)

Presently, no one knows how many “no” votes from the GOP there will be, but it’s clear there will be dozens at least. And it is already very clear to Democratic leadership that McCarthy will need their votes to save him, and the nation, from catastrophe.

“Initially we heard that 95 percent of the House Republican conference would support the agreement. That doesn’t appear to be the case,” said Minority Leader Jeffries with the perfect amount of shade. 

“But what we are also committed to making sure occurs is that the House Republicans keep their promise to produce at least 150 votes.”

If McCarthy falls below that number, Jeffries and his team will have to work hard to whip Democrats on the left who are upset about cuts to increases in the age cut-off for work requirements under SNAP, among other concessions. And that embarrassing spectacle will imperil his position as Speaker of the House, which already hangs by just four votes. 

If McCarthy falls well below that number—particularly if he loses support of more than half his caucus and this turns into a majority Democratic bill—his speakership is doomed.

* * *

It’s day 3 of my special Indictment Offer! Through June 5, you can subscribe as an annual supporter at a 20% off, discounted rate. It’s an incentive for any who have been meaning to upgrade to paid and help an independent writer out (and keep him writing here instead of for a law firm). For each new paid subscriber this week, the gods of karma will up Trump’s chances of indictment just a little more, I swear!