Liz Cheney Is Almost Certainly Toast. But What Does That Mean for the GOP?

“We can’t embrace the notion the election is stolen. It’s a poison in the bloodstream of our democracy,” said Rep. Liz Cheney told a gathering of the conservative American Enterprise Institute at Sea Island, Georgia. Her remarks were published by AP, which cited an anonymous person familiar with the event and willing to discuss it. “We can’t whitewash what happened on January 6 or perpetuate Trump’s big lie. It is a threat to democracy. What he did on January 6 is a line that cannot be crossed.”

Photo Credit: Melina Mara/EPA

Cheney’s private remarks to the fundraising crowd echoed her earlier public statements. “The 2020 presidential election was not stolen,” she tweeted on May 3. “Anyone who claims it was is spreading THE BIG LIE, turning their back on the rule of law, and poisoning our democratic system.”

Cheney is the third most powerful leader in the House Republican caucus. Her public break with GOP House Leadership—and specifically with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy who has courted Trump’s support and believes the party needs him and his voters to regain the majority in 2022—could and very likely will ruin her politically. As such, they are no small matter within Republican circles. Reactions from Trump supporters were swift across social media:

Cheney still has some lonely defenders among the party’s moderate wing. Senator Mitt Romney, for example, who has been harassed at airports by Trump supporters, booed at his party’s state convention, and barely survived a censure vote himself, tweeted his support for Cheney:

Every person of conscience draws a line beyond which they will not go: Liz Cheney refuses to lie. As one of my Republican Senate colleagues said to me following my impeachment vote: “I wouldn’t want to be a member of a group that punished someone for following their conscience.”

Cheney’s statements will nearly certainly result in an even greater fracture within the party. The House Republican Conference Chair, the position Cheney currently holds, is primarily responsible for the party’s messaging. But there isn’t really a world in which statements from the GOP Conference Chair could be so dramatically at odds with the position of the House Minority Leader. On Tuesday, according to the New York Times which cited a leaked recording of the interview, Minority Leader McCarthy privately told a Fox News reporter, “I’ve had it with her” and “I’ve lost confidence.” In the part of the interview that aired publicly, McCarthy said that Cheney could “no longer carry out the message” of the party. 

Cheney had gained the ire of many within her party when she led a group of 10 GOP House members in voting to impeach then-President Trump, even while 138 of her GOP House colleagues voted to object to the election based on the Big Lie she now publicly decries. Cheney survived an anonymous vote to keep her in her role back in February, in part because McCarthy had indicated he wanted to protect her and would urge her to talk less about Trump. The secret no confidence vote failed by a wide margin of 145-61.

Now that Minority Leader McCarthy has signaled he will no longer support Cheney, however, a serious push to oust her from her role has gained steam. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, an acolyte of Trump, has indicated that she would like to challenge Cheney for the leadership position. GOP vote counters seem confident that Stefanik could prevail. Should this happen, it would eliminate all remaining opposition to Trump within the GOP House leadership.

Cheney’s removal would also send a strong signal to local GOP politicos considering primary runs for House seats in 2022: Loyalty to Trump remains a basic litmus test within the party. This would likely result in hard swings to the right by candidates, with many doubling down on Trump’s nativist, authoritarian brand, breeding even more extremist candidates in the style of Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Madison Cawthorn and Matt Gaetz.

This could of course backfire on the GOP. With Republican primaries likely to go all-in for Trump, the party could lose the support of moderates and independents in the general election while creating outrage and fueling turnout among Democrats, even in an off-year cycle. After all, many of the most extreme candidates within the GOP participated in the organizing of the insurrection and have questionable personal histories, and some are even facing pending criminal investigations. That was a recipe for GOP catastrophe in 2018 when Doug Jones prevailed in his senate race in deeply red Alabama after voters simply could not stomach voting for a man like Roy Moore, even though he enjoyed wide support with the hard-core GOP base.

Minority Leader McCarthy may have realized that he cannot stand against the sheer numbers and power of Trump and his supporters. He has made this calculus even while corporate America, which once stood firmly with and funneled regular funds to his party, pulls back its support to the howls, jeers and calls for boycotts by party extremists. The ex-president himself has declared he is prepared to campaign against the few holdouts who are left, including Senator Lisa Murkowski, whom he has branded “disloyal” and, according to Politico, has specifically targeted for a primary challenge. 

McCarthy also likely has run the math and understands that Trumpian candidates will sweep the GOP primaries, and moderates within the GOP who dared to speak out or vote their conscience simply won’t be around much longer. The Cheney battle and a likely removal from her leadership position will mark a key turning point in the downward spiral of the GOP as it cannot seem to stop eating and destroying its own.