I am reminded of James Carville's quip during the Clinton Bush campaign. "Its the economy, stupid."
We all know where that went.
Twice in my life have I seen this in action on a personal level. The first was following Clinton's election, when a Wall St. friend & Clinton supporter was celebrating. I knew nothing at the time so asked why. "The economy ALWAYS does better under Democrats!"
The second was after the 2020 campaign, when a friend and his wife were talking about their daughter's vote for Biden. "I hope she understands the damage she has done to the economy," he said.
Yet, *government* statistics show that under Democrats the economy thrives, while under Republicans, it tanks. The two most notable being the situation in 1929 (Republican businessman president, Republican Congress, and Republican Supreme Court) which worked out so well for this country. The next, and honorable mention goes to Shrub, which swept Obama into office.
I cannot get past this belief in Republican economic knowledge. It is a load of horseshit.
About 2006, an article in US News & World Report said that based on past history, voting for a Republican for president was tantamount to voting FOR a recession. Republicans are not fiscally prudent.They spend tons of moneyon things like tax cuts for rich people. Then Democrats have to come in and pay to fix all the things Republicans broke. But Republicans, ever the party of sound bites and one liners call Democrats the "tax and spend party." It's all lies Stuart Stevens says.
Molly Ivens. may she rest in peace, referred to George W as "Shrub." I loved it. That nitwit, manipulated by Cheney sent my son and thousands of others to a futile war in Iraq.
I firmly believe that President Biden will not allow the country to default, and has an alternate course of action prepared in case (very, very likely case) that McCarthy and the Republicans don't get their shit together. The question is how long will he let them flail and disrupt the financial markets. I'd say it's odds on that this will cost McCarthy the speakership as well.
There are a couple of legal or procedural options, but they all create uncertainty bc they are subject to legal challenge. And that alone could drive markets into a tail spin.
14th Amendment? The first sentence seems to cover the public debt.
SECTION 4.
The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
Agreed - Joe Biden has been doing this since Kevin McCarthy was drooling in his pablum. And yes, I'm pretty sure McCarthy's days as Speaker are numbered. And the number is headed downward.
For at least 45 years, perhaps longer, I have wondered why people devote so much energy to making life more difficult for themselves and each other. After all, we have earthquakes, tornadoes, droughts and floods, forest fires and earthquakes, cancer and diabetes and Covid-19, slips, falls, tumbles, car accidents--the list of things that go wrong is far too long. Do we, the people, really need a self-imposed economic disaster dropped on us by McCarthy and his nut job cronies in the House GOP? Not that I wish them bad luck, but couldn't they all go home and check to see if their AR-15s are loaded by looking down the barrel and... Yeah, I'm irritated. I apologize. It's just hard to share the planet with such dangerous fools.
"It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get nothing! You lose!" 😆👍
Fourteenth Amendment Public Debt Clause would like to enter the chat. Biden may be willing to go there. Litigation would take years; meanwhile the bills get paid. (Because any judge granting a stay to the Republicans would be personally responsible for the destruction of the world’s economy.)
Definitely a crucial data point - but would that uncertainty be worse than what we’re otherwise facing, with the clown car ready to drive off a cliff & take everyone with them? I’m grasping at straws for a way out of this impending disaster. I’m through thinking “they can’t be so foolish as to go there”, for any value of “there”. They blow past “there” without particularly noticing it. If they get their way, disaster in USA. If they don’t, disaster dominoes worldwide.
So what happens when McCarthy inevitably agrees to pass a clean raise of the debt ceiling and they remove him as speaker? Who steps into that spot? I can’t believe he’d take the hit of bringing down our financial power.
"McCarthy is not...known for being terribly bright." sums it up...
What he lacks in smarts he substitutes in childlike glee over titles and imaginary power, to the degree that he will accept unsolvable riddles in exchange for a nameplate on an office door.
The gavel is the point.
He would grab that gavel in a grubby unfinessed fist while the sky falls, chortling all the while.
McCarthy's pretend play is going to slip away, no matter his degree of denialism.
He is after, all, one to whom we can also demand: WTF, Dumbo
The GOP has a problem, and it’s much worse than McCarthy and his ineptitude. There are two major factions of the party, and neither wants to work with the other side to have a coherent single strategy for elections or governing. The last time a major party had this kind of split was in 1860. The D party split along the North-South divide, and endorsed 2 candidates for president, Breckinridge (S) and Douglas (N), which allowed the young GOP to win in only their second presidential election.
The D party survived the split, but would not rise back to validity until 1880, when the GOP had become corrupt with almost unlimited political power. I have the feeling that this is where we’re headed with the GOP.
I still think that Prez. Biden should state clearly and regularly that he will follow the constitution and honor the country’s debt obligations. The 14th amendment requires nothing less. This deadbeat limit B.S. is just a fabricated crisis that is completely unnecessary.
When the time comes, he should order the treasury to continue to service the debt and challenge the “originalist” morons on the Robert’s Kangaroo court to twist themselves into pretzels to make up some sort of reason that the constitution should be ignored.
All future spending bills passed by the Democrats should include a clear statement that if approved, the treasury is required to pay any debt incurred by this bill without interference by future bills or court decisions.
Why would there be a crisis if the president announced (probably via executive order) that all debts will continue to be paid without interruption? The mass media bubble-heads will breathlessly prove their ignorance, but they seem to find ways to do that on a near daily basis anyway . . .
I don't see any alternative unless the house dems pull their heads out and start the rather long process to force a vote, and get enough GQP votes to make it stick. And then the Senate would have to get around the obstruction of the GQP + the GQP-lite types (Manchin, et al), AND have all their members present . . .
I know McCarthy tried to alleviate the Wall Street concerns, promising that he would... fix it all. But how can he promise anything to anyone - specifically, promise the financial analysts that there will be no default - if he has no plan to prevent one? And what CAN be done to keep these bozos from dragging the whole country down with them? We know they don't have a budget. We know they have no desire to come up with one. We know they won't negotiate. So.... what do we do?
This is a pickle. I dont really see a path forward for him. Yesterday McConnell seemed to say that the WH needed to work with McCarthy but on what? WH submitted a budget now yo to House, right? What a pickle mess.
They do not know how to govern, only to obstruct.
And insurrect…
I am reminded of James Carville's quip during the Clinton Bush campaign. "Its the economy, stupid."
We all know where that went.
Twice in my life have I seen this in action on a personal level. The first was following Clinton's election, when a Wall St. friend & Clinton supporter was celebrating. I knew nothing at the time so asked why. "The economy ALWAYS does better under Democrats!"
The second was after the 2020 campaign, when a friend and his wife were talking about their daughter's vote for Biden. "I hope she understands the damage she has done to the economy," he said.
Yet, *government* statistics show that under Democrats the economy thrives, while under Republicans, it tanks. The two most notable being the situation in 1929 (Republican businessman president, Republican Congress, and Republican Supreme Court) which worked out so well for this country. The next, and honorable mention goes to Shrub, which swept Obama into office.
I cannot get past this belief in Republican economic knowledge. It is a load of horseshit.
About 2006, an article in US News & World Report said that based on past history, voting for a Republican for president was tantamount to voting FOR a recession. Republicans are not fiscally prudent.They spend tons of moneyon things like tax cuts for rich people. Then Democrats have to come in and pay to fix all the things Republicans broke. But Republicans, ever the party of sound bites and one liners call Democrats the "tax and spend party." It's all lies Stuart Stevens says.
Shrub. Ha!
That was not mine. It was the work of the incomparable Molly Ivins. It just caught on in the vernacular.
For those that don't know of her, and I am constantly surprised how many people don't (she was amazing and I miss her wit every day):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molly_Ivins#:~:text=Mary%20Tyler%20%22Molly%22%20Ivins%20(,%2C%20political%20commentator%2C%20and%20humorist.
Molly Irvins was a national treasure.
I loved her, too
Molly Ivans made living in Dallas tolerable. Molly and Heinie Winery, in downtown Euless Tx ❤️❤️❤️🤣
Molly Ivens. may she rest in peace, referred to George W as "Shrub." I loved it. That nitwit, manipulated by Cheney sent my son and thousands of others to a futile war in Iraq.
I firmly believe that President Biden will not allow the country to default, and has an alternate course of action prepared in case (very, very likely case) that McCarthy and the Republicans don't get their shit together. The question is how long will he let them flail and disrupt the financial markets. I'd say it's odds on that this will cost McCarthy the speakership as well.
There are a couple of legal or procedural options, but they all create uncertainty bc they are subject to legal challenge. And that alone could drive markets into a tail spin.
14th Amendment? The first sentence seems to cover the public debt.
SECTION 4.
The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
I wrote a piece about this way back. It has its champions and detractors...
Agreed - Joe Biden has been doing this since Kevin McCarthy was drooling in his pablum. And yes, I'm pretty sure McCarthy's days as Speaker are numbered. And the number is headed downward.
For at least 45 years, perhaps longer, I have wondered why people devote so much energy to making life more difficult for themselves and each other. After all, we have earthquakes, tornadoes, droughts and floods, forest fires and earthquakes, cancer and diabetes and Covid-19, slips, falls, tumbles, car accidents--the list of things that go wrong is far too long. Do we, the people, really need a self-imposed economic disaster dropped on us by McCarthy and his nut job cronies in the House GOP? Not that I wish them bad luck, but couldn't they all go home and check to see if their AR-15s are loaded by looking down the barrel and... Yeah, I'm irritated. I apologize. It's just hard to share the planet with such dangerous fools.
I’m reminded of a tag-line I saw back in the UseNet days:
“I cannot fathom those that insist on taking their dose of reality rectally.”
Oh I wish there was a laugh emoji on Substack!
Re: The Debt Ceiling, I'm reminded of this quote;
"It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get nothing! You lose!" 😆👍
Fourteenth Amendment Public Debt Clause would like to enter the chat. Biden may be willing to go there. Litigation would take years; meanwhile the bills get paid. (Because any judge granting a stay to the Republicans would be personally responsible for the destruction of the world’s economy.)
Litigation is a bad thing when the question is market uncertainty...
Definitely a crucial data point - but would that uncertainty be worse than what we’re otherwise facing, with the clown car ready to drive off a cliff & take everyone with them? I’m grasping at straws for a way out of this impending disaster. I’m through thinking “they can’t be so foolish as to go there”, for any value of “there”. They blow past “there” without particularly noticing it. If they get their way, disaster in USA. If they don’t, disaster dominoes worldwide.
Petulant children
So what happens when McCarthy inevitably agrees to pass a clean raise of the debt ceiling and they remove him as speaker? Who steps into that spot? I can’t believe he’d take the hit of bringing down our financial power.
“I can’t believe he’d take the hit of bringing down our financial power.”
Where it comes to todays Republican Party, one should NEVER start a sentence with “I can’t believe they’d...”
They’ve shown for many years (decades) that there is nothing they won’t stoop to. Their attacks on the United States know no bounds.
So, Kevin's plan is to go back to 2022 levels because he's too lazy and incompetent to actually plan a budget?
"McCarthy is not...known for being terribly bright." sums it up...
What he lacks in smarts he substitutes in childlike glee over titles and imaginary power, to the degree that he will accept unsolvable riddles in exchange for a nameplate on an office door.
The gavel is the point.
He would grab that gavel in a grubby unfinessed fist while the sky falls, chortling all the while.
McCarthy's pretend play is going to slip away, no matter his degree of denialism.
He is after, all, one to whom we can also demand: WTF, Dumbo
The GOP has a problem, and it’s much worse than McCarthy and his ineptitude. There are two major factions of the party, and neither wants to work with the other side to have a coherent single strategy for elections or governing. The last time a major party had this kind of split was in 1860. The D party split along the North-South divide, and endorsed 2 candidates for president, Breckinridge (S) and Douglas (N), which allowed the young GOP to win in only their second presidential election.
The D party survived the split, but would not rise back to validity until 1880, when the GOP had become corrupt with almost unlimited political power. I have the feeling that this is where we’re headed with the GOP.
Thank you.
I still think that Prez. Biden should state clearly and regularly that he will follow the constitution and honor the country’s debt obligations. The 14th amendment requires nothing less. This deadbeat limit B.S. is just a fabricated crisis that is completely unnecessary.
When the time comes, he should order the treasury to continue to service the debt and challenge the “originalist” morons on the Robert’s Kangaroo court to twist themselves into pretzels to make up some sort of reason that the constitution should be ignored.
All future spending bills passed by the Democrats should include a clear statement that if approved, the treasury is required to pay any debt incurred by this bill without interference by future bills or court decisions.
I wrote about this in an earlier piece. But I'm not convinced it solves the crisis that could engulf the markets.
Why would there be a crisis if the president announced (probably via executive order) that all debts will continue to be paid without interruption? The mass media bubble-heads will breathlessly prove their ignorance, but they seem to find ways to do that on a near daily basis anyway . . .
I don't see any alternative unless the house dems pull their heads out and start the rather long process to force a vote, and get enough GQP votes to make it stick. And then the Senate would have to get around the obstruction of the GQP + the GQP-lite types (Manchin, et al), AND have all their members present . . .
I know McCarthy tried to alleviate the Wall Street concerns, promising that he would... fix it all. But how can he promise anything to anyone - specifically, promise the financial analysts that there will be no default - if he has no plan to prevent one? And what CAN be done to keep these bozos from dragging the whole country down with them? We know they don't have a budget. We know they have no desire to come up with one. We know they won't negotiate. So.... what do we do?
What are the chances that a Manchin-Sinema performance could further complications to this Republican Gordian Knot?
*shudder*
So how does the GOP House Majority’s record look, at just over 100 days in?
From where we sit, it’s something like a clown car: stuffed with fools, stalled out on the side of the road with no clear way forward.
-George Takei
This is a pickle. I dont really see a path forward for him. Yesterday McConnell seemed to say that the WH needed to work with McCarthy but on what? WH submitted a budget now yo to House, right? What a pickle mess.
Is it possible for Biden to raise the debt ceiling by executive order?
Nope - but he can create money to negate it - the trillion-dollar platinum coin caper. Nobody likes that solution - but it IS a solution.