Riley is adorable. Thanks for the analysis. I think the national polling is a disaster and they are embarrassingly underestimating the power of pissed-off women. I think it’s Kamala in a landslide, at least, that’s what I think in the moments when I’m not immobilized by fear.
Totally agree! Women are NOT ok with having their reproductive rights removed, and being subject to life threatening outcomes! Anyone who underestimates that anger is unlikely to be a woman.
I think that politicians, and pollsters, have all seriously underestimated women's response to the Dobbs decision, and I think that there will be a huge surge of women voters...all voting blue!
I have been thinking the same thing for months, every. time I have heard one of these talking heads saying the abortion issue wasn't going to impact the election very much! How could it NOT???
A very high percentage of older people vote. We Boomer women remember the time before abortion was legal, and we are extremely angry that this right that we’ve had since 1973 was taken away. We know that it’s the Trump-appointed justices that tipped the majority of the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. And now we are voting for Kamala Harris for President who will right this wrong.
I think the national polling is a disaster too. I repeat I don't think papers should be doing polls. That is them creating news not reporting on or analyzing it. It is just wrong, wrong, wrong.
Also, no one I know answers polls. We are all democrats and do not trust giving our personal anything to randos who call, email or text. Come to my door and that is different. I will talk to you.
These two pieces of info seem to concur with Ann Selzer's Iowa poll.
What is important about that, is that it shows that Harris picked up new people in the early voting, which means if she gets the vote out she will have a lot of her regular voters that can be counted on. Trump does not have so many new voters in his early voting which means he has to get them out on election day. Sorry to say, but after over 30 years of teaching, relying on young men to get up and do what you want is not the best bet for an election strategy. I also read a woman saying today she had never polled so many enthusiastic new young women voters as she has in this election. Roe v Wade is all I have to say. I guess it is a bigger issue than the MAGAmen realize. Blue Tsunami please!
"Roe v Wade is all I have to say. I guess it is a bigger issue than the MAGAmen realize. " They severely limited half the population's healthcare, because they're not doctors. In a Roe Vs Bros tiktok random men at large where asked if a woman could still pee with a tampon in. They all declared that no, she can't. Sigh. These are the guys that are voting to limit womens healthcare. Meanwhile actual Doctors that spent tons of time and $$$ to get that medical license are now hesitating and women are dying. They don't realize these archaic laws put ALL women at risk.
Not only all women's health care is at risk, but that of men's too. That is because fewer people will want to be doctors in states that have these laws, and frankly, we have a lot of doctors from other countries and they won't want to come here and may not be allowed in. They will learn other languages and go to European countries instead. Let these men get heart attacks and no treatment because that is what is it like for women right now, not just in red states, but also in blue states are Catholic Health systems takes over more and more hospitals. Could they afford to do this without tax exempt status? I wonder. It is a travesty.
Still, we see signs that women are really getting out to vote and that is good for us. White Suburban women can make the difference in this election. Also, read that young men are voting for Kamala too, the group that Trump is banking on.
Ob-gynecologists are fleeing the ten states with strict abortion laws and creating maternity care deserts because they don’t want to be prosecuted if they perform an abortion to save a woman’s life.
It isn't just pregnant women at risk in red states where doctors don't wish to practice. All women, and girls will be affected simply because there will be inadequate care available to them when OB/GYN doctors flee red states, or are inadequately trained.
So Seltzer's poll is commissioned by the Des Moines Register. Polls, such as NYT/Sienna, are not done by the media organization but by an experienced pollster they commission.
As I said, a poll named NYT/Sierra poll whoever the individuals are creating it, is not what I view as appropriate for news media to be doing. Also, when questioned about their polls, because reporting only results and not methodology, including questions, is a nothing-burger as far as I am concerned, so I don't pay attention to them. So, this is why I appreciated this conversation which is about early ballots, and called Trump's Turnout Trouble. https://youtu.be/EZvQCIsu8Zs?si=fuZYq0DNseQfZMMG
I agree. Red, Wine, and Blue, a group of women throughout the country are knocking on doors today and tomorrow. They are active in Florida, a small group for now but growing. Their target is ridding Florida of Rick Scott, a very worthy goal.
I moved here in '22 and I am impressed with the turnout for this election. The lines have been long (but move quickly) at the Franklin County Board of Elections. There was probably 2 women for every 1 man that I saw the day I went. I think the GOP severely underestimated how galvanizing it would be to deny healthcare for half the population.
Let’s hope. We need Brown to win and issue 1 to pass.
if VP Harris, the House and the Senate all go blue it’s because of women and how damn angry they are. The women in the south are currently living in Gilead hellscape. Rise up ladies. Rise up!
Pollsters failed to "weight" the post-Dobbs female voter cohort, as they were spending too much effort in trying to capture the "hidden" tRump male vote. Well, guess what? The overwhelming pro-Harris vote was "hiding" in plain sight, but never mind, we're looking for that "tRump bro" young male cohort to come out of their mum's basement and crush the vote...uh-huh.
The Selzer cross-tabs re: distribution of women's vote is the real deal here, and surely it's no stretch to project that breakout across the "Blue Wall", if not beyond, to conclude that, yes, women are going strongly for Harris, and an EV blowout is not unreasonable.
Nate Cohn does his usual defense of "weighting", "recalled vote", "poll non-responsiveness/tRump voter", blah-blah-blah, but NOWHERE does he account for a "Dobbs" weighting, which is manifested by the early-vote breakout of both female participation v male and by actual vote preference across all age spreads amongst the female voter cohort. Women's sensibilities concerning reproductive freedom and women's own rights seemingly by agreement amongst pollsters and political mavens have been decreed as secondary to "the economy" and "immigration", thus the confusion and attempted back-filling to somehow account for a late-breaking Harris surge.
When all the dust settles after Election Day, and by mid-December, when Harris-Walz are formally confirmed as the winning ticket, we then will be in the middle of "How did the pollsters get it so wrong in 2024?", when the answer has been staring them in their faces ever since Kamala Harris took the reins from Joe Biden. Hard cheese, guys, better luck next time.
I cannot say enough about how statistically INSANE polls in America are. The way things are weighted are a. usually set according to conservatives who create the 'trends' and b. skew any and all data. You cannot get accurate results from going 'these are the numbers we got and this is how we THINK they're going to apply to the big picture'. If someone tried weighting polls here in Australia as severely as your guys do, it would cause a riot. (Not that that's stopped Murdoch from trying... Remember, he's FROM here, we've been dealing with his bollocks even longer than y'all have.)
Of course the polls here kind of have to be more accurate, given that voting is compulsary here...
That's not what happened in 2016 or 2020. Polls were skewed towards Democrats. In 2022, there were signs the red wave wouldn't happen, which were only caught partially by the polls. The question pollsters have is does this election look more like 2016 or 2020, or more like 2022.
In Australia, turnout is much higher. In the US, modeling who is going to actually vote is one of the pollsters do.
Polls were not off in 2016 - the Comey letter changed the campaign and late deciders broke to trump b/c of Comey and its non-stop media coverage. Pollsters did miss in 2020 but have been over-correcting ever since and as a result (especially post-Dobbs) Dems have been over-performing and maga under-performing all independent/public polling.
Well yes, I know the turnout is higher, I outright said it's compulsary. If we're eligible to vote and don't, we can face fines and even jail time!
Also the factors that led to Trump's 2016 win came late enough and were severe enough that there was no way the polls could've accounted for them properly, and the weighting system threw everything even further off.
I am one of those older women for Harris. I am also an unaffiliated voter who has always voted for the person not the party. This year was different, i voted straight party up and down the ballot for Democrats. I fought for the right to have a safe abortion after one of my dorm mates never came back from a back alley one. I fought for sex Ed in our public schools when I was in High School. I have fought for equal footing with men in my career, I have fought the working mom versus the stay at home mom issue, I have fought the mommy track that some managers (even women ) put other women on. My grandmother's all fought for the right to vote. My dad already fought the Fascists in WWII. My family has served this country in every war from the French and Indian War to the war on Terror (Me, I did that). Everyone in my family at one time or another took an oath to protect and serve the Constitution of the United States. I raised smart children who know it is their civic duty to research the issues and vote. I am damned if I am going to let a traitor to our Constitution win, and I have already fought every single battle that was out there from the time I was 12 on. I am tired, and it doesn't have to be fought again and again, but I see we are going to have to do this again and again because the republican party has become the party of Fascists, and control freaks from the Mothers of Liberty all the way up to trump, Musk and Vance, I don't want them in the Dr.s office with me or any other woman nor the polls, nor schools. Leave us alone and as Tim Walz says so eloquently; "Mind your own damned business." Thank you for Neverland, Riley is adorable and so is Windsor and Shade. I am also fighting for Riley, so she doesn't have to fight these idiots and can concentrate on loving life.
Don’t have to “be” any party. Just have a heart, a brain, and NOT want to be the greediest mthrfr in the valley. Unfortunately, this skews against way too many these days.
Even if Harris loses Iowa, the poll shows normally republican women voting for Harris in large numbers in a state that's 84% white. That movement is not going to be isolated to Iowa. It is also giving permission to other women that voting for Harris is okay.
Though I do appreciate your thoughts and writing of polls, and the upcoming election, as a grandma, the photos of your family, especially Little Miss, got all my attention. Thanks for sharing this magical, tender, pre-election balm to soothe my soul.
Older women remember what life was like when you couldn't rent an apartment or buy a home as a single woman, when you couldn't get a credit card in your own name, when women were fired when we got pregnant. We won't go back!
My mom was fired when she got pregnant with me. I am 58 yrs old. Dudes didn't grow up hearing all the stories- WE did. They overstepped and underthought. We are NOT going back.
I had an old (Republican/Evangelical) friend stop by for an overnight on her way home to FL, last night. The talk eventually turned to the election and she had absolutely nothing good to say about The Orange Menace. She said she had already voted and it was not for tRump. She also shared that she was not telling her Republican friends because she didn't want to lose longtime friends. I suspect this is not an isolated event. I suspect the pollsters are getting some people lying about who they are voting for. I remain cautiously optimistic.
I think there’s a lot of that going on! Nobody likes admitting their mistakes! And brother …a lot of Americans are going to be trying to secretly erase the biggest friggen mistake they ever made in their lives ! 👍🇺🇸 hopefully a new day is dawning !VOTE BLUE ‼️🇺🇸damn red exclamation marks !
Trumpers have little reason to be shy anymore. Their “stamp” is to be in your face, unlike ‘16 when people hid their vote bc he was so controversial.
There are “shy Harris voters”. Apparently now there’s plenty of them. Trumpers are not about to tell family and friends, as you point out with your friend as an example.
I just couldn’t play the game of pretending to sound ok about Trump. It’s so much more than the man. To vote for him and the GOP is a vote for lack of integrity, compassion, kindness, ethical standards .. all of it. Frankly I cannot have such friends. At all.
How sad that we are losing friends on both sides of the aisle depending on our moral compasses. It doesn't and shouldn't have to be this way. Sadly though, the course is set and I'm not too confident it will correct itself ever.
That’s so adorable! I’m working the election polling location through Tuesday, and I’m so encouraged by the amount of people showing up to place their ballots! I never ask them who, but they’ve been overall telling me (😬) just how important this election is. I’m happy to see it. I so appreciate all the hard work you do! Not to mention those costumes! Made me start the day with a smile!
Re: The Harris ground game - I've been participating in it remotely from my home in Colorado since Labor Day. I came to Wisconsin this weekend to knock on doors. I have been blown away by the size, organization and efficiency of the Harris canvassing operation here. I've been going door to door since I was a teenager working on my Congressman's re-election campaign in 1972. I've never seen anything like this. I don't know if we are going to win, but if what I'm seeing here is any indication of what is going on nationally, Harris has a tremendous turnout machine and our donations to her campaign have been very well spent.
Such a sweet fam!!! The eye-to-eye contact between you and Riley is priceless, Jay. Such love! Looks like she can't wait to start sharing her thoughts. Windsor is the cutest croc. Evah! Don't feel bad about not getting Shade into a costume. My cat Izzy would flay me from head to toe if I tried that. Very protective of their dignity, cats. Love your Sunday pics!
Enjoy this while she’s still relatively immobile, Jay. Once she can sit up — certainly once she can roll over! — dressing Riley may become an aerobic event. Low risk, low reward, dude. (I’m SO happy for you!)
What I take away from the Selzer Iowa poll is that Trump clearly hasn't closed the gap with Haley voters. Interesting that this poll covered the period following Trump's disgraceful MSG rally, which clearly did damage to his campaign. Finally, women. As Heather Cox Richardson points out, the partisan gender gap first opened up in 1980 when Ronald Reagan started preaching the John Wayne gospel of rugged American men protecting submissive women. That partisan gender gap has grown into a chasm since the Dobbs decision, and Trump's embrace of bro culture.
I think the women's vote has largely flown under the radar during this cycle. The fact that Kamala Harris has successfully made women's rights a men's issue, too, is starting to show up in late deciders breaking for Harris. I'm just gonna say it: I think America's women are going to save this country from the nightmare of another Trump term and maybe even begin the destruction of MAGA culture.
Riley is adorable. Thanks for the analysis. I think the national polling is a disaster and they are embarrassingly underestimating the power of pissed-off women. I think it’s Kamala in a landslide, at least, that’s what I think in the moments when I’m not immobilized by fear.
Totally agree! Women are NOT ok with having their reproductive rights removed, and being subject to life threatening outcomes! Anyone who underestimates that anger is unlikely to be a woman.
We women aren’t exactly seduced by old and new stories of TFG’s smutty and racist words and behavior either.
"aren't exactly seduced" I CAN'T STOP LAUGHING!!! Understatement of the year! (century?)
Thanks a lot kdsherpa. I hoped someone like you woukd get what I meant. Reading other comments here has helped me loosen and lighten up.
'...whether they like it or not...' - that is not a good choice of words for
anyone interested in winning colleagues, friends or votes.
I think that politicians, and pollsters, have all seriously underestimated women's response to the Dobbs decision, and I think that there will be a huge surge of women voters...all voting blue!
I have been thinking the same thing for months, every. time I have heard one of these talking heads saying the abortion issue wasn't going to impact the election very much! How could it NOT???
A very high percentage of older people vote. We Boomer women remember the time before abortion was legal, and we are extremely angry that this right that we’ve had since 1973 was taken away. We know that it’s the Trump-appointed justices that tipped the majority of the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. And now we are voting for Kamala Harris for President who will right this wrong.
I think the national polling is a disaster too. I repeat I don't think papers should be doing polls. That is them creating news not reporting on or analyzing it. It is just wrong, wrong, wrong.
Also, no one I know answers polls. We are all democrats and do not trust giving our personal anything to randos who call, email or text. Come to my door and that is different. I will talk to you.
These two pieces of info seem to concur with Ann Selzer's Iowa poll.
5 reasons for hope. https://kamala4prez.substack.com/p/5-reasons-for-hope
That was still on polls, but this here is about analyzing early voting called Trump's Turnout Trouble. https://youtu.be/EZvQCIsu8Zs?si=NMM2KMBzYmJb98Xi
What is important about that, is that it shows that Harris picked up new people in the early voting, which means if she gets the vote out she will have a lot of her regular voters that can be counted on. Trump does not have so many new voters in his early voting which means he has to get them out on election day. Sorry to say, but after over 30 years of teaching, relying on young men to get up and do what you want is not the best bet for an election strategy. I also read a woman saying today she had never polled so many enthusiastic new young women voters as she has in this election. Roe v Wade is all I have to say. I guess it is a bigger issue than the MAGAmen realize. Blue Tsunami please!
"Roe v Wade is all I have to say. I guess it is a bigger issue than the MAGAmen realize. " They severely limited half the population's healthcare, because they're not doctors. In a Roe Vs Bros tiktok random men at large where asked if a woman could still pee with a tampon in. They all declared that no, she can't. Sigh. These are the guys that are voting to limit womens healthcare. Meanwhile actual Doctors that spent tons of time and $$$ to get that medical license are now hesitating and women are dying. They don't realize these archaic laws put ALL women at risk.
Not only all women's health care is at risk, but that of men's too. That is because fewer people will want to be doctors in states that have these laws, and frankly, we have a lot of doctors from other countries and they won't want to come here and may not be allowed in. They will learn other languages and go to European countries instead. Let these men get heart attacks and no treatment because that is what is it like for women right now, not just in red states, but also in blue states are Catholic Health systems takes over more and more hospitals. Could they afford to do this without tax exempt status? I wonder. It is a travesty.
Still, we see signs that women are really getting out to vote and that is good for us. White Suburban women can make the difference in this election. Also, read that young men are voting for Kamala too, the group that Trump is banking on.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-election-harris-trump-target-young-male-voters/a-70669006?maca=en-newsletter_en_bulletin-2097-xml-newsletter&at_medium=Newsletter&at_campaign=EN%20-%20Daily%20Bulletin&at_dw_language=en&at_number=20241103&r=67371172426962665&lid=3174265&pm_ln=272477
Ob-gynecologists are fleeing the ten states with strict abortion laws and creating maternity care deserts because they don’t want to be prosecuted if they perform an abortion to save a woman’s life.
Which means the remaining doctors also are more stretched, which will affect male health care too.
It isn't just pregnant women at risk in red states where doctors don't wish to practice. All women, and girls will be affected simply because there will be inadequate care available to them when OB/GYN doctors flee red states, or are inadequately trained.
So true!
So Seltzer's poll is commissioned by the Des Moines Register. Polls, such as NYT/Sienna, are not done by the media organization but by an experienced pollster they commission.
It does not matter who does it, it should not be coming from the media itself.
It's not. The pollsters themselves, like Amn Seltzer, are independent.
As I said, a poll named NYT/Sierra poll whoever the individuals are creating it, is not what I view as appropriate for news media to be doing. Also, when questioned about their polls, because reporting only results and not methodology, including questions, is a nothing-burger as far as I am concerned, so I don't pay attention to them. So, this is why I appreciated this conversation which is about early ballots, and called Trump's Turnout Trouble. https://youtu.be/EZvQCIsu8Zs?si=fuZYq0DNseQfZMMG
It's Siena College, not Sierra.
They are the basically the gold standard pollster of the nation[1][2].
[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
[2] https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state
I posted this from Germany. It is in English. The news on young men is more positive for Harris than we have been led to believe.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-election-harris-trump-target-young-male-voters/a-70669006?maca=en-newsletter_en_bulletin-2097-xml-newsletter&at_medium=Newsletter&at_campaign=EN%20-%20Daily%20Bulletin&at_dw_language=en&at_number=20241103&r=67371172426962665&lid=3174265&pm_ln=272477
I agree. Red, Wine, and Blue, a group of women throughout the country are knocking on doors today and tomorrow. They are active in Florida, a small group for now but growing. Their target is ridding Florida of Rick Scott, a very worthy goal.
I joined RWB to help pass the restoration of Roe here in Ohio.
They are organized, well informed, and tough as nails.
If anyone can help pass abortion rights and get rid of Scott, they can.
I moved here in '22 and I am impressed with the turnout for this election. The lines have been long (but move quickly) at the Franklin County Board of Elections. There was probably 2 women for every 1 man that I saw the day I went. I think the GOP severely underestimated how galvanizing it would be to deny healthcare for half the population.
Let’s hope. We need Brown to win and issue 1 to pass.
if VP Harris, the House and the Senate all go blue it’s because of women and how damn angry they are. The women in the south are currently living in Gilead hellscape. Rise up ladies. Rise up!
It's our turn to fight for our younger sisters just like our brave older sisters did for us.
Indeed a very worthy goal. It looks like they might be successful too according to this early vote analysis. https://youtu.be/EZvQCIsu8Zs?si=NMM2KMBzYmJb98Xi
Nancy, you described my own thoughts/feelings exactly. Here’s hoping and praying we’re both right about the Landslide! ❤️🤍💙
@Jay, Thank you!! 🙏
I love the family's first Halloween pictures. Savor it all. ❤️
Pollsters failed to "weight" the post-Dobbs female voter cohort, as they were spending too much effort in trying to capture the "hidden" tRump male vote. Well, guess what? The overwhelming pro-Harris vote was "hiding" in plain sight, but never mind, we're looking for that "tRump bro" young male cohort to come out of their mum's basement and crush the vote...uh-huh.
The Selzer cross-tabs re: distribution of women's vote is the real deal here, and surely it's no stretch to project that breakout across the "Blue Wall", if not beyond, to conclude that, yes, women are going strongly for Harris, and an EV blowout is not unreasonable.
Nate Cohn does his usual defense of "weighting", "recalled vote", "poll non-responsiveness/tRump voter", blah-blah-blah, but NOWHERE does he account for a "Dobbs" weighting, which is manifested by the early-vote breakout of both female participation v male and by actual vote preference across all age spreads amongst the female voter cohort. Women's sensibilities concerning reproductive freedom and women's own rights seemingly by agreement amongst pollsters and political mavens have been decreed as secondary to "the economy" and "immigration", thus the confusion and attempted back-filling to somehow account for a late-breaking Harris surge.
When all the dust settles after Election Day, and by mid-December, when Harris-Walz are formally confirmed as the winning ticket, we then will be in the middle of "How did the pollsters get it so wrong in 2024?", when the answer has been staring them in their faces ever since Kamala Harris took the reins from Joe Biden. Hard cheese, guys, better luck next time.
I cannot say enough about how statistically INSANE polls in America are. The way things are weighted are a. usually set according to conservatives who create the 'trends' and b. skew any and all data. You cannot get accurate results from going 'these are the numbers we got and this is how we THINK they're going to apply to the big picture'. If someone tried weighting polls here in Australia as severely as your guys do, it would cause a riot. (Not that that's stopped Murdoch from trying... Remember, he's FROM here, we've been dealing with his bollocks even longer than y'all have.)
Of course the polls here kind of have to be more accurate, given that voting is compulsary here...
"...dealing with his bollocks even longer than y'all have" - mixed UK and Dixie jargon, all with an Aussie accent: love it!
What can I say, I was a latchkey kid, learned my slang from 90s TV.
That's not what happened in 2016 or 2020. Polls were skewed towards Democrats. In 2022, there were signs the red wave wouldn't happen, which were only caught partially by the polls. The question pollsters have is does this election look more like 2016 or 2020, or more like 2022.
In Australia, turnout is much higher. In the US, modeling who is going to actually vote is one of the pollsters do.
Polls were not off in 2016 - the Comey letter changed the campaign and late deciders broke to trump b/c of Comey and its non-stop media coverage. Pollsters did miss in 2020 but have been over-correcting ever since and as a result (especially post-Dobbs) Dems have been over-performing and maga under-performing all independent/public polling.
Well yes, I know the turnout is higher, I outright said it's compulsary. If we're eligible to vote and don't, we can face fines and even jail time!
Also the factors that led to Trump's 2016 win came late enough and were severe enough that there was no way the polls could've accounted for them properly, and the weighting system threw everything even further off.
This should be the death of political polling as we know it.
Bingo - this post should be required reading for every pundit and pollster before they try to save face on 11/6.
I am one of those older women for Harris. I am also an unaffiliated voter who has always voted for the person not the party. This year was different, i voted straight party up and down the ballot for Democrats. I fought for the right to have a safe abortion after one of my dorm mates never came back from a back alley one. I fought for sex Ed in our public schools when I was in High School. I have fought for equal footing with men in my career, I have fought the working mom versus the stay at home mom issue, I have fought the mommy track that some managers (even women ) put other women on. My grandmother's all fought for the right to vote. My dad already fought the Fascists in WWII. My family has served this country in every war from the French and Indian War to the war on Terror (Me, I did that). Everyone in my family at one time or another took an oath to protect and serve the Constitution of the United States. I raised smart children who know it is their civic duty to research the issues and vote. I am damned if I am going to let a traitor to our Constitution win, and I have already fought every single battle that was out there from the time I was 12 on. I am tired, and it doesn't have to be fought again and again, but I see we are going to have to do this again and again because the republican party has become the party of Fascists, and control freaks from the Mothers of Liberty all the way up to trump, Musk and Vance, I don't want them in the Dr.s office with me or any other woman nor the polls, nor schools. Leave us alone and as Tim Walz says so eloquently; "Mind your own damned business." Thank you for Neverland, Riley is adorable and so is Windsor and Shade. I am also fighting for Riley, so she doesn't have to fight these idiots and can concentrate on loving life.
Don’t have to “be” any party. Just have a heart, a brain, and NOT want to be the greediest mthrfr in the valley. Unfortunately, this skews against way too many these days.
Love your sass!
Even if Harris loses Iowa, the poll shows normally republican women voting for Harris in large numbers in a state that's 84% white. That movement is not going to be isolated to Iowa. It is also giving permission to other women that voting for Harris is okay.
Sixty-eight year old Iowa Democrat here...blue dot in a red county...
Never underestimate the power of a woman...pollster or voter... :)
Though I do appreciate your thoughts and writing of polls, and the upcoming election, as a grandma, the photos of your family, especially Little Miss, got all my attention. Thanks for sharing this magical, tender, pre-election balm to soothe my soul.
Riley is a very lucky girl, destined for a great life to have such a great Dad!
Older women remember what life was like when you couldn't rent an apartment or buy a home as a single woman, when you couldn't get a credit card in your own name, when women were fired when we got pregnant. We won't go back!
Older women remember when leaving an abusive, deadbeat husband being told by the bank that HE would have to sign for her credit card.
My mom was fired when she got pregnant with me. I am 58 yrs old. Dudes didn't grow up hearing all the stories- WE did. They overstepped and underthought. We are NOT going back.
I had an old (Republican/Evangelical) friend stop by for an overnight on her way home to FL, last night. The talk eventually turned to the election and she had absolutely nothing good to say about The Orange Menace. She said she had already voted and it was not for tRump. She also shared that she was not telling her Republican friends because she didn't want to lose longtime friends. I suspect this is not an isolated event. I suspect the pollsters are getting some people lying about who they are voting for. I remain cautiously optimistic.
I think there’s a lot of that going on! Nobody likes admitting their mistakes! And brother …a lot of Americans are going to be trying to secretly erase the biggest friggen mistake they ever made in their lives ! 👍🇺🇸 hopefully a new day is dawning !VOTE BLUE ‼️🇺🇸damn red exclamation marks !
Trumpers have little reason to be shy anymore. Their “stamp” is to be in your face, unlike ‘16 when people hid their vote bc he was so controversial.
There are “shy Harris voters”. Apparently now there’s plenty of them. Trumpers are not about to tell family and friends, as you point out with your friend as an example.
I just couldn’t play the game of pretending to sound ok about Trump. It’s so much more than the man. To vote for him and the GOP is a vote for lack of integrity, compassion, kindness, ethical standards .. all of it. Frankly I cannot have such friends. At all.
Oh, by the way, Jay - besides the cute baby, that may just be a good look for you!
How sad that we are losing friends on both sides of the aisle depending on our moral compasses. It doesn't and shouldn't have to be this way. Sadly though, the course is set and I'm not too confident it will correct itself ever.
Canvassed in GA...knocked on 350+ doors and talked to 150+ voters. Lots of enthusiasm. Lots of voting.
I drove from Nashville to Jacksonville and there were 3...count 'em...THREE highway billboards for Trump.
I was hotels and Fox News was NOT on. I am sitting in the Delta lounge and...it ain't on here either.
Women are sick of it. This is the last election where we say please.
I’m here in Georgia. Your observations are giving me hope!💙
That’s so adorable! I’m working the election polling location through Tuesday, and I’m so encouraged by the amount of people showing up to place their ballots! I never ask them who, but they’ve been overall telling me (😬) just how important this election is. I’m happy to see it. I so appreciate all the hard work you do! Not to mention those costumes! Made me start the day with a smile!
Re: The Harris ground game - I've been participating in it remotely from my home in Colorado since Labor Day. I came to Wisconsin this weekend to knock on doors. I have been blown away by the size, organization and efficiency of the Harris canvassing operation here. I've been going door to door since I was a teenager working on my Congressman's re-election campaign in 1972. I've never seen anything like this. I don't know if we are going to win, but if what I'm seeing here is any indication of what is going on nationally, Harris has a tremendous turnout machine and our donations to her campaign have been very well spent.
Such a sweet fam!!! The eye-to-eye contact between you and Riley is priceless, Jay. Such love! Looks like she can't wait to start sharing her thoughts. Windsor is the cutest croc. Evah! Don't feel bad about not getting Shade into a costume. My cat Izzy would flay me from head to toe if I tried that. Very protective of their dignity, cats. Love your Sunday pics!
Enjoy this while she’s still relatively immobile, Jay. Once she can sit up — certainly once she can roll over! — dressing Riley may become an aerobic event. Low risk, low reward, dude. (I’m SO happy for you!)
What I take away from the Selzer Iowa poll is that Trump clearly hasn't closed the gap with Haley voters. Interesting that this poll covered the period following Trump's disgraceful MSG rally, which clearly did damage to his campaign. Finally, women. As Heather Cox Richardson points out, the partisan gender gap first opened up in 1980 when Ronald Reagan started preaching the John Wayne gospel of rugged American men protecting submissive women. That partisan gender gap has grown into a chasm since the Dobbs decision, and Trump's embrace of bro culture.
I think the women's vote has largely flown under the radar during this cycle. The fact that Kamala Harris has successfully made women's rights a men's issue, too, is starting to show up in late deciders breaking for Harris. I'm just gonna say it: I think America's women are going to save this country from the nightmare of another Trump term and maybe even begin the destruction of MAGA culture.
I think so, too, Jane!