In lieu of a week ahead summary, I thought it might be helpful to discuss how things look a year out from the national election. Polls have folks very much on edge, which I suppose is part of the point, and today’s bad battleground state poll for Biden by the New York Times / Siena is sure to cause much handwringing. The thought of a repeat of Donald Trump is enough to raise the blood pressure of any voter who values the rule of law, pluralism and our democratic institutions.
Your perspective is so valuable, intelligent, and calming. In my gut, I realize that MAGA is a small vocal group, and faith in my fellow citizens has been shaken seeing people toss character, integrity, and decency aside to support such a con artist as Trump. Keep working and looking forward and hope that the legal system will end our nightmare. ✌️💙
My mom always lived by that old saying "the squeaky wheel gets the grease." These days of 24/7 news and so much ad revenue derived form that cycle, the MAGA'S grab headlines and create the clicks---everyone wants to see the latest nightmare. I firmly believe there are NOT enough of them to push Trump to the Oval Office. (Now whether Trump has a scheme to rig the election, well...)
Thank you for this! I opened my email to see that New York Times poll with an exasperated eye roll. I know we have work to do, but there are so many good things that we have going in our favor, and it helps to give talking points for the doomsayers in my life who are currently handwringing. Have a great Sunday!!
Yes, the NYT poll bothered me as well. Furthermore, I do not understand why the media keep harping on the negatives about Biden without reporting the positives. If it wasn't for this email, I'd be very upset. Jay Kuo has kept me sane in the past and continues to do so.
I have found its coverage to be sadly lacking these past few years.
They don’t report accurately on my Presidents administration. It’s a pattern and I’m deeply suspect of a paper that was once a scion of journalistic integrity— now seems out of touch and biased.
I get more headlines with lasagna recipes from NYT than good coverage of my federal government, state elections or international affairs.
I wrote a comment to the NYT questioning the validity of the results of their poll, and the validity of a newspaper polling, namely creating news instead of reporting on it. I got an email back from the NYT, so instead of publishing my comment the person tried to verify the legitimacy of the poll by the demographics I mentioned, except he did not satisfy me, and I told him so. It was to dear.upshot@nyt.com
I knew they would not be publishing my harsh criticism of their editors and polling, and ownership. Why, because when I have written while Trump was president that his child should be removed from his care due to extreme covid neglect they did not print that. When I suggested before any reporter that I was worried that Trump was planning a military coup if he did not win in the election where he did not win, and did stage a coup, they did not report that. In fact, when about a month later I saw one of the more left opinion columnists bringing this up, I thought they missed their chance because I called it first. So, I have no faith in them to be objective, or do their job of critically reporting on the news that actually exists, like why so many idiots think they are better off under Trump, other than that they love having their White male egos stroked, and there is no explaining the rest of the idiots, because armageddon is not really something you want to have happen, it is just a nice myth to get millions of people to put up with and perpetrate a lot of shit!
Newspapers print what sells. But at 76, I’m tired of depressing, fear-mongering news about our economy and society (which I think the GOP is pushing) and I’m not going to read it any more. I think Biden’s doing a great job and he’s got my vote.
You are correct. The message of the maga fascist movement is that the country is in peril, Biden is a crook, Dems eat babies etc etc . Any shit they can throw at the wall to scare the BJeesus out of small town America and push their authoritarian agenda.
I’m also 76 and I fear that there are more MAGAs than ever. Outrageous behavior had become normalized. Anti-semitism and racism are on the rise. Made up stories like “wokeness” “witch hunt” “protecting our children ( but not through gun safety) “ dull the senses.
The international situation is tense and needs a steady leader but Trump talks about isolationism and that’s what people want to hear,”America First”.
"I opened my email to see that New York Times poll with an exasperated eye roll." Why? You don't like the results? Just look at the methodology section at the end. It wasn't a nationwide poll, but in specific battleground states, and they were clear about that. So unless you live there, is not surprising that the results would be different from the experience in your local environment. Since the battlegrounds are also where the next President will be decided, this is an important aspect.
One thing we need to be careful of is to avoid living in the same kind of information bubble that the right wing often lives in.
It’s less about liking the results or not. Polls this far out aren’t super reliable and cause a LOT of freaking out. A good portion of voters aren’t as clued into what’s going on and a lot of them don’t even know that Trump is running again, much less that he’s going to (probably) be a convicted felon when he does. It just seems
To cause unnecessary freaking out doesn’t seem helpful and I’ll admit I’m tired of the constant negative press about Biden. No one wants to give him anything 😬🤦🏼♀️
Completely agree with Kevin’s thinking here. Although polls this far out are highly unreliable, it’s worth noting the ethnic and age demographics in the NYT article where Biden is losing voter strength. They are key winning demographics in those battleground states and should be taken seriously. Biden and the Democrats have had terrible messaging for two years as MAGA republicans have sucked all the oxygen out of every newsroom. Although I’m somewhat buoyed by Jay’s optimism, we must not let this and other similar SubStack posters become an echo chamber.
My son just spent a week at an Obama workshop and his take-away was that there were so many people who are fighting for democracy! I have faith that we will prevail!
Heather Cox Richardson is sensing a movement as she tours the country with her book Democracy Awakening 🇺🇸 Red, Wine, and Blue are experiencing success getting out the word and the vote 👍🏻👍🏻
Women will probably save us again. I think it's time for all the men to pack up their things and go home. Or to the moon. I typically encourage people in my demographic and age group (old white male) to sit this one out.
Other idea: engage all of our old white men colleagues in defending democracy. My OWM husband is on board and on task in Michigan to stay blue.
The dumb NYT/Siena poll will accomplish one thing: kick us Dem's into earlier action in Michigan. While we don't believe for ONE MINUTE that M will vote for Trump (who in the hell were they polling anyway?), we are springing into action tomorrow. No time to lose now (pun intended)!!
I disagree - Please don't sit this one out if you are a thoughtful person. And there are many in your generation of old white males who are also engaged.
I hear there are studies showing that men become more conservative and women become more liberal about most issues over time. So, you demographically and generationally good men-folk, help us women-folk (and all the folks) stem this tide.
VA state elections on Tuesday will be a key barometer of voter sentiment, whether it's a continuing turn against the tRumpian GOP, or blowback against Biden, as suggested by this a.m.'s NYT polling. Sure, "all politics is local", we get that, but there are national issues that invariably affect voters' preferences, and how strongly will matters such as abortion rights; "inflation" - not just today's price of a dozen eggs, but financing rates for major consumer purchases; the sorry state of Congress and GOP incompetence and failed leadership; and other issues of varying importance that impact not only voter turnout, but party preference as well.
What really is needed is an antidote to dismal, one-year-out polling that the Times is featuring, and that would be a robust showing in VA for the forces of progress and good governance, a better marker for 2024 successes (or failures) than early "swing-state" polls.
I'm on the edge of my seat here in VA. A good number of people are early voting (ended yesterday), but we certainly need Dems to turn out in great numbers in their districts. So much of VA is rural red and gerrymandered it makes the House a nail biter every time.
Unfortunately, there will be naive voters who will vote for spoiler candidates and think they’ve voted their “conscious” only to find their conscious vote has plunged us all into a Christo-fascist hellscape. It will be far too late for their oops by then.
A well done summary of the case for Democratic optimism in 2024. That doesn't mean there's not a year of hard work and nail-biting drama ahead of them.
Thanks for this realistic summary of where things stand a year before the next presidential election. Such clear-sighted analysis of the last election is why I decided to become a paying subscriber -- and I've never regretted that decision.
Thank you!! I saw the byline on the NYT...I don't subscribe so couldn't open to read. I was hoping someone would address this news story. So much good Biden has done that gets discounted by so many media sources. I read The Lever, which is supposed to be neutral..I could be wrong...and saw this byline the other day "Bidenomics Failed Its Inflation Test"....article went on to say households are suffering due to higher interest rate costs, credit card debt etc. It's damn if you do and damn if you don't. Jay, I appreciate you bringing a voice of reason and a balanced perspective. Thank you again!!
The frustrating thing is that the press has normalized Trump. They pretend that although he's doing "well" in the polls, that he should be treated like any other presidential contender. The press has abdicated its responsibility, and no longer reports on Trump's erratic behavior and insane rants on Truth Social. They treat MTG (Q-GA) as a normal person, too, and cover her every time she spouts off with her insane rants.
Remember in the 90s when there was a fair amount of press reporting the closure of journalism programs in colleges.. ? It only got worse and now we are reaping the effects of a decline in our educational system (No Child Left Behind, anybody?) also privatization of our Universities and curriculum cancelation— CRT, ethno -history, civics and journalism.
I quit subscribing to the NYT--it’s no longer “all the news fit to print.” More like, “Let’s give voice to the misinformation from the RNC and cash in on the idea of “balanced journalism.”
Nope.....Like many other newspapers unfit even for fishwrap, the NYT has become a worthless rag who seems to be cheerleading for Trump and the authoritarians--for what purpose, only a Mammon knows. Do they actually think they will be spared if by some disastrous series of events, Trump does come to power? Hah... Anybody recall the surprise of the idiot when the leopard ate their face? NYT...keep checking for your face.
Today’s column both eases my mind on many issues, and terrifies me because of the number of delusional idiots out there who still think Trump is a godsend. I’m hoping my better angels can hang on and keep preaching to the few Republicans among my closest friends.
Thank you for your words today. I needed to hear them. I appre so much the way you take all the pieces and help me see what is happening. Your writing is saving my sanity!!
Now, can someone explain to me WHY Jack Smith hasn’t moved to take the Florida case out of Judge Cannon’s hands despite her OBVIOUS prejudice for tRump? Why are they dropping the ball on an espionage case?
Because he has Trump dead to rights in Judge Chutkan's court in DC. Once Trump is convicted in her court sometime in early May, he will appeal all the way up to SCOTUS and lose. He'll already be doing time in Club Fed by the time the Mar-a-Lago case comes to trial.
As many have pointed out, I was missing a “from” in front of the word “blue.” I meant “hard to turn one of these states FROM blue in 2024.”
Not to rorru, we all mak typos at times. <3
Your perspective is so valuable, intelligent, and calming. In my gut, I realize that MAGA is a small vocal group, and faith in my fellow citizens has been shaken seeing people toss character, integrity, and decency aside to support such a con artist as Trump. Keep working and looking forward and hope that the legal system will end our nightmare. ✌️💙
My mom always lived by that old saying "the squeaky wheel gets the grease." These days of 24/7 news and so much ad revenue derived form that cycle, the MAGA'S grab headlines and create the clicks---everyone wants to see the latest nightmare. I firmly believe there are NOT enough of them to push Trump to the Oval Office. (Now whether Trump has a scheme to rig the election, well...)
Thank you for this! I opened my email to see that New York Times poll with an exasperated eye roll. I know we have work to do, but there are so many good things that we have going in our favor, and it helps to give talking points for the doomsayers in my life who are currently handwringing. Have a great Sunday!!
Yes, the NYT poll bothered me as well. Furthermore, I do not understand why the media keep harping on the negatives about Biden without reporting the positives. If it wasn't for this email, I'd be very upset. Jay Kuo has kept me sane in the past and continues to do so.
I am reconsidering my subscription to the NYT.
I have found its coverage to be sadly lacking these past few years.
They don’t report accurately on my Presidents administration. It’s a pattern and I’m deeply suspect of a paper that was once a scion of journalistic integrity— now seems out of touch and biased.
I get more headlines with lasagna recipes from NYT than good coverage of my federal government, state elections or international affairs.
F the NYT.
I canceled my Ny Times and Washington Post subscriptions
The NYT is hardly better than a tabloid now. What a shame. It once stood for the best in America, but no longer.
I wrote a comment to the NYT questioning the validity of the results of their poll, and the validity of a newspaper polling, namely creating news instead of reporting on it. I got an email back from the NYT, so instead of publishing my comment the person tried to verify the legitimacy of the poll by the demographics I mentioned, except he did not satisfy me, and I told him so. It was to dear.upshot@nyt.com
I knew they would not be publishing my harsh criticism of their editors and polling, and ownership. Why, because when I have written while Trump was president that his child should be removed from his care due to extreme covid neglect they did not print that. When I suggested before any reporter that I was worried that Trump was planning a military coup if he did not win in the election where he did not win, and did stage a coup, they did not report that. In fact, when about a month later I saw one of the more left opinion columnists bringing this up, I thought they missed their chance because I called it first. So, I have no faith in them to be objective, or do their job of critically reporting on the news that actually exists, like why so many idiots think they are better off under Trump, other than that they love having their White male egos stroked, and there is no explaining the rest of the idiots, because armageddon is not really something you want to have happen, it is just a nice myth to get millions of people to put up with and perpetrate a lot of shit!
Newspapers print what sells. But at 76, I’m tired of depressing, fear-mongering news about our economy and society (which I think the GOP is pushing) and I’m not going to read it any more. I think Biden’s doing a great job and he’s got my vote.
You are correct. The message of the maga fascist movement is that the country is in peril, Biden is a crook, Dems eat babies etc etc . Any shit they can throw at the wall to scare the BJeesus out of small town America and push their authoritarian agenda.
The facts say otherwise.
I’m also 76 and I fear that there are more MAGAs than ever. Outrageous behavior had become normalized. Anti-semitism and racism are on the rise. Made up stories like “wokeness” “witch hunt” “protecting our children ( but not through gun safety) “ dull the senses.
The international situation is tense and needs a steady leader but Trump talks about isolationism and that’s what people want to hear,”America First”.
Sad
Mine too!
"I opened my email to see that New York Times poll with an exasperated eye roll." Why? You don't like the results? Just look at the methodology section at the end. It wasn't a nationwide poll, but in specific battleground states, and they were clear about that. So unless you live there, is not surprising that the results would be different from the experience in your local environment. Since the battlegrounds are also where the next President will be decided, this is an important aspect.
One thing we need to be careful of is to avoid living in the same kind of information bubble that the right wing often lives in.
It’s less about liking the results or not. Polls this far out aren’t super reliable and cause a LOT of freaking out. A good portion of voters aren’t as clued into what’s going on and a lot of them don’t even know that Trump is running again, much less that he’s going to (probably) be a convicted felon when he does. It just seems
To cause unnecessary freaking out doesn’t seem helpful and I’ll admit I’m tired of the constant negative press about Biden. No one wants to give him anything 😬🤦🏼♀️
Completely agree with Kevin’s thinking here. Although polls this far out are highly unreliable, it’s worth noting the ethnic and age demographics in the NYT article where Biden is losing voter strength. They are key winning demographics in those battleground states and should be taken seriously. Biden and the Democrats have had terrible messaging for two years as MAGA republicans have sucked all the oxygen out of every newsroom. Although I’m somewhat buoyed by Jay’s optimism, we must not let this and other similar SubStack posters become an echo chamber.
I deleted without opening. I just couldn't.
Me too, headed straight for Wordle and Connections and bypassed the rest.
Same here.
Too bad. You should have.
Nope.
That garbage won’t get my click.
The algorithms trace this business. Stop opening bs polls, headlines that feature Trump.
It’s one way to fight the propaganda. Don’t read it.
The negatives are important because focusing on the positive, while emotionally comforting, also leads to complacency.
My son just spent a week at an Obama workshop and his take-away was that there were so many people who are fighting for democracy! I have faith that we will prevail!
Heather Cox Richardson is sensing a movement as she tours the country with her book Democracy Awakening 🇺🇸 Red, Wine, and Blue are experiencing success getting out the word and the vote 👍🏻👍🏻
There should be a group Red, Wine, and Kuo. What could we do?
I'm in!!
Lol, there should!
There's a Red Wine and Blue in my area that I'm considering joining!
https://redwine.blue/
Women will probably save us again. I think it's time for all the men to pack up their things and go home. Or to the moon. I typically encourage people in my demographic and age group (old white male) to sit this one out.
Other idea: engage all of our old white men colleagues in defending democracy. My OWM husband is on board and on task in Michigan to stay blue.
The dumb NYT/Siena poll will accomplish one thing: kick us Dem's into earlier action in Michigan. While we don't believe for ONE MINUTE that M will vote for Trump (who in the hell were they polling anyway?), we are springing into action tomorrow. No time to lose now (pun intended)!!
I'm really curious about the "who" of the polls, too. Nobody I talk to has come close to changing their minds about Trump.
I disagree - Please don't sit this one out if you are a thoughtful person. And there are many in your generation of old white males who are also engaged.
It was mostly a joke. But stats show that the vast majority in my demographic should have their voting rights revoked, lol.
=) Got it.
I hear there are studies showing that men become more conservative and women become more liberal about most issues over time. So, you demographically and generationally good men-folk, help us women-folk (and all the folks) stem this tide.
Agreed!
https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson?r=23g7j3&utm_medium=ios
Thanks for writing an upbeat piece. I’m exhausted by all the negative comments spiraling around a YEAR out.
VA state elections on Tuesday will be a key barometer of voter sentiment, whether it's a continuing turn against the tRumpian GOP, or blowback against Biden, as suggested by this a.m.'s NYT polling. Sure, "all politics is local", we get that, but there are national issues that invariably affect voters' preferences, and how strongly will matters such as abortion rights; "inflation" - not just today's price of a dozen eggs, but financing rates for major consumer purchases; the sorry state of Congress and GOP incompetence and failed leadership; and other issues of varying importance that impact not only voter turnout, but party preference as well.
What really is needed is an antidote to dismal, one-year-out polling that the Times is featuring, and that would be a robust showing in VA for the forces of progress and good governance, a better marker for 2024 successes (or failures) than early "swing-state" polls.
I'm on the edge of my seat here in VA. A good number of people are early voting (ended yesterday), but we certainly need Dems to turn out in great numbers in their districts. So much of VA is rural red and gerrymandered it makes the House a nail biter every time.
We’re rooting for you Linda and your fellow Virginians! 🙏🏻
Thank you! I'll be out at the polls on Tuesday!
After reading the Times article, your post has enabled me to take a deep breath and calm my mind down. Thank you for your clarity as always.
Your keyboard to God’s inbox.
Now is not the time to relax - determined is indeed the word. Thanks Jay, I needed this this morning.
Jay, The Truth. thank you for your clarity. And, yes, "Not one of us can afford to sit this out."
Unfortunately, there will be naive voters who will vote for spoiler candidates and think they’ve voted their “conscious” only to find their conscious vote has plunged us all into a Christo-fascist hellscape. It will be far too late for their oops by then.
A well done summary of the case for Democratic optimism in 2024. That doesn't mean there's not a year of hard work and nail-biting drama ahead of them.
Thanks for this realistic summary of where things stand a year before the next presidential election. Such clear-sighted analysis of the last election is why I decided to become a paying subscriber -- and I've never regretted that decision.
Thank you!! I saw the byline on the NYT...I don't subscribe so couldn't open to read. I was hoping someone would address this news story. So much good Biden has done that gets discounted by so many media sources. I read The Lever, which is supposed to be neutral..I could be wrong...and saw this byline the other day "Bidenomics Failed Its Inflation Test"....article went on to say households are suffering due to higher interest rate costs, credit card debt etc. It's damn if you do and damn if you don't. Jay, I appreciate you bringing a voice of reason and a balanced perspective. Thank you again!!
The frustrating thing is that the press has normalized Trump. They pretend that although he's doing "well" in the polls, that he should be treated like any other presidential contender. The press has abdicated its responsibility, and no longer reports on Trump's erratic behavior and insane rants on Truth Social. They treat MTG (Q-GA) as a normal person, too, and cover her every time she spouts off with her insane rants.
Amen to that!!!
All of this!! Thank you, Charles.
You said it.
We have been failed.
Remember in the 90s when there was a fair amount of press reporting the closure of journalism programs in colleges.. ? It only got worse and now we are reaping the effects of a decline in our educational system (No Child Left Behind, anybody?) also privatization of our Universities and curriculum cancelation— CRT, ethno -history, civics and journalism.
It is not a coincidence.
It’s part of the plan.
I quit subscribing to the NYT--it’s no longer “all the news fit to print.” More like, “Let’s give voice to the misinformation from the RNC and cash in on the idea of “balanced journalism.”
If you subscribe to NY Times Morning newsletter you can read the short version of the poll for free.
Here's a link to the NYT article if you want to read it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html?unlocked_article_code=1.8Ew.uPx6.hCmDEZEVhWIL&smid=url-share
Nope.....Like many other newspapers unfit even for fishwrap, the NYT has become a worthless rag who seems to be cheerleading for Trump and the authoritarians--for what purpose, only a Mammon knows. Do they actually think they will be spared if by some disastrous series of events, Trump does come to power? Hah... Anybody recall the surprise of the idiot when the leopard ate their face? NYT...keep checking for your face.
Today’s column both eases my mind on many issues, and terrifies me because of the number of delusional idiots out there who still think Trump is a godsend. I’m hoping my better angels can hang on and keep preaching to the few Republicans among my closest friends.
Thank you for your words today. I needed to hear them. I appre so much the way you take all the pieces and help me see what is happening. Your writing is saving my sanity!!
Nice.
Now, can someone explain to me WHY Jack Smith hasn’t moved to take the Florida case out of Judge Cannon’s hands despite her OBVIOUS prejudice for tRump? Why are they dropping the ball on an espionage case?
There has to be strong reason to get her replaced. So far she hasn’t provided that.
Because he has Trump dead to rights in Judge Chutkan's court in DC. Once Trump is convicted in her court sometime in early May, he will appeal all the way up to SCOTUS and lose. He'll already be doing time in Club Fed by the time the Mar-a-Lago case comes to trial.
I hope that’s the case--it sounds like a sloppy approach to me.