The last time the NYT polls showed trump leading, I went to the cross tabs. What did I find? The times is STILL over sampling republicans (3 points), and conservatives (14 points). The are also under sampling young voters 18-44.
Side note about Insider Advantage; they don't allow you to see their cross tabs, so you can't tell the demographics they are covering in their polls.
So tired of the NYT's oversampling of Republicans! It's been exposed...you'd think they might make a correction. Ah well...the "results" help them with their click-bait ledes.
I guess it would depend HOW they poll people. Do they use landlines? What time do they call? Even if they call the same areas. Is it the same amount of people each time. That's why polls are subjective and shouldn't be taken into account, for anything but a basic overview.
I got rid of my landline years ago. I only use my iPhone and to avoid scams, advertisers and political BS, if not on my accepted contacts list, my phone doesn't ring. If someone calls, can't get through and doesn't leave a message, I block them. If they do leave a message, I can choose whether to call them back or delete them permanently.
Bottomline, I know many people doing this and of the one's I know, they are ALL Democrats voting for Harris. However, my sample size is small and biased since I have no reason to talk with MAGAs.
Related: do you know anyone under the age of 30 who, first, answers their phone when it rings, and second, wouldn’t prefer to text? I don’t know how they’re getting anybody under the age of 30 and trying to say it’s representative.
I'm 64 and behave essentially the same vis-a-vis phone access. No more land line, screen ALL calls, routinely unsubscribe from texts, ignore or block voice mails from unknown callers. I text preferentially except for known callers, even then prefer to call back rather than take calls primarily. It's a profound change in behavior from even 10 years ago, driven by invasion of my privacy on a massive scale by advertisers and pols.
A reason I stopped subscribing to the NYT is because I do not approve of papers polling because that is them creating news, not just reporting it. I was also critical of their polls, and instead of posting my response, the editor wrote me back some stuff, and I did not agree with it. I wanted more information on their sample, and what their questions were. Every time I wrote to the post I got some imbecilic millennial editor, who did not have the life experience of a Kumquat, mansplaining some totally irrelevant to what I was saying crap. So, I could not even in good conscience continue to do puzzles in the times.
How do they expect people to trust their polls with such dodgy sampling? Don't they understand - hedging the selection to a candidate is NOT going to produce accurate results.
Also, don't be afraid. Put your signs up, wear your shirts and hats, Chucks and pearls. So many are finding they aren't as alone in the blue as they thought.
Great to hear that I wasn't alone in my anxiety yesterday evening!
A quick note that in addition to those Jay cites, those interested in following PA closely might want to check out Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) and Tom Bonier. Both are looking at the data in this piece in some detail, comparing not just to 2020 but also to statewide elections in 2022 (Senate and Governor) and 2023 (Supreme Court). Bonier is, as many probably know, an honest but clearly pro-Harris voice, while Smithley probably also votes Dem but his analysis of facts is cold and doesn't reflect that. As a short, non-expert summary: the early hard data available looks like 2020, 2022, and 2023 far more than 2016. Both will also be posting and assessing mail-in ballot returns once they start in a couple of weeks (that's when things really get predictive).
FWIW, for all the need to be realistic and not overconfident, Harris has better odds of winning PA at the moment than Trump does and he's showing no signs of gaining momentum. Anything can happen, but IMO the situation is better than "winnable" - we are winning and the race remains "loseable".
After moving to Oregon, where ALL voting is done by mail, I was very pleased with the process and wondered why other states don’t follow. It's soooo easy.
So, those 2020 mail ballot voters in PA might have similarly been happy with mail ballots and choose that route again. I know that I would. Why would you choose to stand in line?
Also an Oregon resident since 2005 after braving the funky lines and machines in NYC for many years, mail-in voting is one thing Oregon has figured out.
Yes it has. We were in Michigan, where I literally walked 1.5 blocks to an elementary school to vote. Short or non-existent lines; I used to think that was the gold standard... not anymore. States should really follow their example, but they'd lose that ability to supress voting, and we know how "important" that is for (their) election "integrity."
Washington is also an all-mail voting state. When we made the change several years ago, I was bummed. Like you, I walked a little over a block to my polling station, always went early, never suffered any lines--and I LOVED the experience. But ya know...after several years of mail-in voting, I have come to love it. It just makes sense to make voting as easy as possible for the largest number of people. And the ability to track my ballot through my local election office is like icing on the cake.
Been doing it in Ca for years. Make much more sense for the down-ballot races where there is little information available, so digging is required (I.e. school board, judges, etc).
"Washington my home, wherever I may roam," is the only line I know from our state song, but it applies aptly to mail-in ballots. I live abroad and can scan my completed ballot and attach it to an email, then check online to confirm its been received.
hear, hear! Oregon voter, grateful for the chance to vote with ballot, voter guide and additional sources on local candidates at hand, along with a cup of coffee or adult beverage, weeks before election day. It doesn't get any better than this!
I would choose not to stand in line if I lived in a blue state, but I live in Ohio. I am afraid of all the things the Republican legislature might do to screw around with ballots and vote counting, so I go directly to the polls, as early as I am allowed to. This is a great difficulty for me, because I am disabled, and it is really hard for me to go stand in line. But I feel compelled anyway. I am grateful that I am able to do that. There are so many disabled people for whom the polls are inaccessible, and live in places where mail in voting is either very difficult or not allowed.
I'm a PA mail voter (since the 2020 election). Our process is trackable and works well. My ballot is submitted at an official drop box monitored both by video and by an election worker who asks if we signed and dated the ballot before submission. The only negative is the inability for mail ballots to be pre-canvassed before elections day...a needed change which would speed up tabulation and largely eliminate the Trump election night false spew.
I live WA and I love doing mail-in voting, especially for initiatives. They can be complicated, so it’s nice to be able to do analysis while filling out the ballot. All of my postcard writing thus far in this election has been to swing states urging voters to request mail-in ballots.
I’m voting in person because PA has a convoluted rule about dating the envelope- which disqualified thousands of votes in the last election. The rule has been fought repeatedly in the courts because the date is of no practical significance, yet the latest ruling reversed a previous decision to count ballots which are incorrectly dated. I don’t want there to be any chance my vote won’t be counted. Also, there are no lines most years at my polling location, and it’s close to home.
Easy is exactly what the GQP wants to avoid/prevent. They KNOW they lose in a fair election, so they’ve been focused on voter suppression for well over a decade.
"In Erie, Harris leads female voters by an even wider 55%-35% margin. Trump leads among male voters in Northampton 53%-44% and male voters in Erie 52%-42%."
Thank you, ladies, once again. And thanks Jay for the numbers and encouragement.
Those numbers among men are infuriating.
We men who loathe Trump need to intensely verbalize our positions and work hard to find ways to get some of these men to change their minds. I already know most of the processes for doing so at a meta level because they're talked about a lot here and similar forums, and I do what I can.
But for me, it also must happen during one on ones, like this:
"Hey, up for some pickleball?"
"Are you voting for Trump?"
"Well... ummmm..." (because nobody admits it)
"No. I only play pickleball with people whose brains have not been pickled during the last 8 years."
Sorry, MAGAs and I run in totally different circles. Also, even though not religious, I like the biblical saying about not casting one's pearls before swine. In the past I learned there is nothing I can say that will unwash the dug in MAGA mindset.
I live in Georgia. I probably have about 3 friends who I suspect to be Trump supporters, but they won't admit it. I will say I think they, and others, will sit this one out, something the polls do not reflect.
I’m thinking the same as you Charles. I suspect some Republicans will get to the point they can’t hold their noses tight enough and leave the top of the ticket empty, but then check ‘R’ all of the rest of the way down. That may not bode well for the senate.
I'll be very interested to see how these numbers change after the VP debate on October 1st. I assume they will change in favor of Kamala/Walz, but honestly how can we even be this close?
I don’t understand why there are undecided voters. The choice between hate and love should be clear. A con liar felon versus a prosecuting attorney? Good grief, Charlie Brown!
A lot of people just don't follow the news -- and I can't say I blame them. They're living their lives. All they know is that gas and groceries are more expensive.
Those are the people Harris has to reach. The good news is that it doesn't take much to remind them of Jan. 6 and other things they've flushed out of their short-term memories.
Chris Bouzy released his newest electoral maps. The national election for Prez. looks great, but the Senate is a cliffhanger. Tester and Allred need help, or we need better polling.
Bouzy has Harris-Walz winning 349 electoral votes, Trump 166. The Senate is a dead heat, 50-50.
Tester MAY be helped by the abortion rights amendment on the ballot.
Let’s hope the folks who vote yes will also vote for Tester.
Ditto for here in Ohio. We have an anti gerrymandering amendment on the ballot.
Hopefully it helps Sherrod Brown.
(Really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to vote for the Maga when you’re voting to restore a women’s bodily autonomy or restore fair representation.)
Totally agreed that if reproductive rights are important to a voter they should never vote Republican - but some of them absolutely will- especially the ones who think they are safe in a blue state like California, NY, NJ where abortion is legal. They need to learn about the Comstock Act, which will absolutely be used if Trump gets into the White House.
Too many people do not understand how politics and overall government works, at the US or state level.
In this era, I no longer hold much faith polls because (1) very few except the elderly have landlines, and (2) most people don't answer unknown numbers on the cell phones.
In 2016 and 2020, I preferred to observe lawn signs and political placards around my county. Living in Ohio, in a very red gerrymandered county, in 2016, Trump flags and signs were all over the rural areas, People were flying them from silos. In more urban areas, it was Clinton. 2020 was much the same, except with the notable observation that many clear Republican voters left out the headline ticket, but put up signs supporting down-ballot Republicans.
This year, at least in my county of Ohio, I'm seeing DEVOUT Republicans sneaking in a Democrat running for county commissioner -- which is somewhat of a shock. Most Republicans are also not putting out Trump/Vance signs, but *are* putting out down-ballot signs. OTOH, the Democrats have Trump/Walz signs all over their yards, along with the down-ballot races.
This trend is a wildfire after the Springfield events of last week. On one corner in our village, there is a guy who has confederate flags, Trump flags and placards (and, well, of course, Ohio State fags). This has developed into somewhat of a gas war (remember those?) because his neighbors have all started hanging their Harris/Walz signs, Vote yes on Issue #1 (putting an end to gerrymandering), and signs for the first Democrats to actually run here, when Republicans have been uncontested for years. One cheeky homeowner even put up a Michigan flag.
Simon Rosenberg calls outfits like InsiderAdvantage 'red wave pollsters' because they're paid for by republicans for the sole purpose of jacking the state polling margins with aggregators like 538 to make Trump and republicans look stronger than they actually are. They missed by a mile in 2022.
I think women are smart enough not to trust Trump or Vance when it comes to abortion, IVF or anything else to do with women's bodily autonomy. Likewise, the vile, racist attacks on Haitian immigrants are repulsing women voters. Finally, Trump's unwillingness during the debate to side with Ukraine over Russia will NOT land well with the large Polish American communities in PA. They know what happened in Europe under German and then Russian occupation. Trump left that door wide open, and Kamala Harris walked through it and locked arms with the Polish communities.
What is being done to protect against DeJoy messing around with mail-in votes, delaying delivery, or just 'losing' the mail, particularly in places like AZ, NV, and PA? In VA I can check on whether they counted my vote and have a pretty high degree of confidence it was counted accurately. I tend to do mail-in so I can do my research and fill it out at the kitchen table in my own time, but I no longer trust dropping that mail-in ballot off at USPS, I walk it down to the local city hall polling station to a box dedicated to mail-in ballots down there.
I suspect the younger people will lean towards doing that over heading physically to the polls. Or do early voting in-person, if their state has it at all.
Cannot wait for the Voting Rights Act to pass and start to be vigorously enforced. Voting should be easy, not a goddamn obstacle course.
Here in PA, we can avoid the DeJoy effect by taking our mail ballots to an official election drop box, where ballots are collected each night and delivered to the election office...avoiding the post office altogether. My drop box is at the local library, 5 minutes away. It works very well indeed.
I live in Mexico but am a US citizen and am eligible to vote, using PA as my home state. I have registered over the internet with the Bucks County Board of Elections. When I receive my online ballot, I'll print it out, sign and date it, and take to the US Embassy, which is a short walk from my apartment in Mexico City. Embassy personnel will send off all the ballots they receive, so that they'll be counted in a timely fashion. Of course, I'll be voting Blue all up and down the ballot!
This is a fantastic break-down of how polls work. I’m excited about the numbers in polls leaning Harris and increasing, but especially happy about the county break-down leaning Harris. Let’s all keep working to bring Harris/Walz victory November 5, 2024. Blue for the win! Thank you Jay for all you do.
Perhaps the good women of Erie County and Northampton County in Pennsylvania -- or good women in any county anywhere -- could employ Lysistrata's famous approach to induce their male partners to join them in voting for the sanity of Harris and Walz instead of the insanity and viciousness of trump and vance.
I posited that same approach several months ago. In case Lysistrata isn’t familiar to you, to put it bluntly, the women cut their warring husbands off until their lower brains finally kicked in and figured the way to peace.
Very cogent and compelling analysis regarding a totally must-win state for Harris-Walz. I subscribed to the Phila. Inquirer just to get some insight into the race there, and a recent article highlights the Dem problems in working-class counties outside Pittsburgh and Philly. Luzerne County was formerly a Democratic stronghold, but now it's tRump country, and this piece illustrates why:
Don’t you think one of the reasons Ms. Harris didn’t pick Josh Shapiro was so he could work PA like it has never been worked before to help get PA firmly in the Dem electoral column?
I thoroughly support the choice of Coach Tim as Veep. In fact, when the names were first released to the press as to whom Kamala was looking at I picked Coach as my choice.
It's mind-boggling after all these years that working class people have not learned what Republicans do to them - or, the outrageous salaries that these Executives make on their backs.
“The PA Dems Voter Protection and Organizing teams are working hard to make sure that every voter's voice is heard this November and we need your help! Please join us in making calls to voters who need help "curing" their ballots.”
I'm so sick of the racist, antiquated Electoral College, I could vomit. 5 states should not decide anything for the entire country, especially something this important.
The last time the NYT polls showed trump leading, I went to the cross tabs. What did I find? The times is STILL over sampling republicans (3 points), and conservatives (14 points). The are also under sampling young voters 18-44.
Side note about Insider Advantage; they don't allow you to see their cross tabs, so you can't tell the demographics they are covering in their polls.
So tired of the NYT's oversampling of Republicans! It's been exposed...you'd think they might make a correction. Ah well...the "results" help them with their click-bait ledes.
I guess it would depend HOW they poll people. Do they use landlines? What time do they call? Even if they call the same areas. Is it the same amount of people each time. That's why polls are subjective and shouldn't be taken into account, for anything but a basic overview.
I got rid of my landline years ago. I only use my iPhone and to avoid scams, advertisers and political BS, if not on my accepted contacts list, my phone doesn't ring. If someone calls, can't get through and doesn't leave a message, I block them. If they do leave a message, I can choose whether to call them back or delete them permanently.
Bottomline, I know many people doing this and of the one's I know, they are ALL Democrats voting for Harris. However, my sample size is small and biased since I have no reason to talk with MAGAs.
Related: do you know anyone under the age of 30 who, first, answers their phone when it rings, and second, wouldn’t prefer to text? I don’t know how they’re getting anybody under the age of 30 and trying to say it’s representative.
I'm 64 and behave essentially the same vis-a-vis phone access. No more land line, screen ALL calls, routinely unsubscribe from texts, ignore or block voice mails from unknown callers. I text preferentially except for known callers, even then prefer to call back rather than take calls primarily. It's a profound change in behavior from even 10 years ago, driven by invasion of my privacy on a massive scale by advertisers and pols.
A reason I stopped subscribing to the NYT is because I do not approve of papers polling because that is them creating news, not just reporting it. I was also critical of their polls, and instead of posting my response, the editor wrote me back some stuff, and I did not agree with it. I wanted more information on their sample, and what their questions were. Every time I wrote to the post I got some imbecilic millennial editor, who did not have the life experience of a Kumquat, mansplaining some totally irrelevant to what I was saying crap. So, I could not even in good conscience continue to do puzzles in the times.
How do they expect people to trust their polls with such dodgy sampling? Don't they understand - hedging the selection to a candidate is NOT going to produce accurate results.
Thanks Jay. This is great to hear. It’s definitely winnable if we all do our jobs — volunteer, donate, represent, and VOTE!
Also, don't be afraid. Put your signs up, wear your shirts and hats, Chucks and pearls. So many are finding they aren't as alone in the blue as they thought.
And send post cards (which I'm doing)
Great to hear that I wasn't alone in my anxiety yesterday evening!
A quick note that in addition to those Jay cites, those interested in following PA closely might want to check out Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) and Tom Bonier. Both are looking at the data in this piece in some detail, comparing not just to 2020 but also to statewide elections in 2022 (Senate and Governor) and 2023 (Supreme Court). Bonier is, as many probably know, an honest but clearly pro-Harris voice, while Smithley probably also votes Dem but his analysis of facts is cold and doesn't reflect that. As a short, non-expert summary: the early hard data available looks like 2020, 2022, and 2023 far more than 2016. Both will also be posting and assessing mail-in ballot returns once they start in a couple of weeks (that's when things really get predictive).
FWIW, for all the need to be realistic and not overconfident, Harris has better odds of winning PA at the moment than Trump does and he's showing no signs of gaining momentum. Anything can happen, but IMO the situation is better than "winnable" - we are winning and the race remains "loseable".
After moving to Oregon, where ALL voting is done by mail, I was very pleased with the process and wondered why other states don’t follow. It's soooo easy.
So, those 2020 mail ballot voters in PA might have similarly been happy with mail ballots and choose that route again. I know that I would. Why would you choose to stand in line?
Also an Oregon resident since 2005 after braving the funky lines and machines in NYC for many years, mail-in voting is one thing Oregon has figured out.
Yes it has. We were in Michigan, where I literally walked 1.5 blocks to an elementary school to vote. Short or non-existent lines; I used to think that was the gold standard... not anymore. States should really follow their example, but they'd lose that ability to supress voting, and we know how "important" that is for (their) election "integrity."
Washington is also an all-mail voting state. When we made the change several years ago, I was bummed. Like you, I walked a little over a block to my polling station, always went early, never suffered any lines--and I LOVED the experience. But ya know...after several years of mail-in voting, I have come to love it. It just makes sense to make voting as easy as possible for the largest number of people. And the ability to track my ballot through my local election office is like icing on the cake.
Been doing it in Ca for years. Make much more sense for the down-ballot races where there is little information available, so digging is required (I.e. school board, judges, etc).
"Washington my home, wherever I may roam," is the only line I know from our state song, but it applies aptly to mail-in ballots. I live abroad and can scan my completed ballot and attach it to an email, then check online to confirm its been received.
https://spoutible.com/thread/35986112
Visualize it, make it so!
Likewise in WA, probably THE most vote- friendly state in the country, said proudly!
Mail in ballots have been working great in WA for at least 20 years, too!!
hear, hear! Oregon voter, grateful for the chance to vote with ballot, voter guide and additional sources on local candidates at hand, along with a cup of coffee or adult beverage, weeks before election day. It doesn't get any better than this!
I would choose not to stand in line if I lived in a blue state, but I live in Ohio. I am afraid of all the things the Republican legislature might do to screw around with ballots and vote counting, so I go directly to the polls, as early as I am allowed to. This is a great difficulty for me, because I am disabled, and it is really hard for me to go stand in line. But I feel compelled anyway. I am grateful that I am able to do that. There are so many disabled people for whom the polls are inaccessible, and live in places where mail in voting is either very difficult or not allowed.
I'm a PA mail voter (since the 2020 election). Our process is trackable and works well. My ballot is submitted at an official drop box monitored both by video and by an election worker who asks if we signed and dated the ballot before submission. The only negative is the inability for mail ballots to be pre-canvassed before elections day...a needed change which would speed up tabulation and largely eliminate the Trump election night false spew.
I live WA and I love doing mail-in voting, especially for initiatives. They can be complicated, so it’s nice to be able to do analysis while filling out the ballot. All of my postcard writing thus far in this election has been to swing states urging voters to request mail-in ballots.
I’m voting in person because PA has a convoluted rule about dating the envelope- which disqualified thousands of votes in the last election. The rule has been fought repeatedly in the courts because the date is of no practical significance, yet the latest ruling reversed a previous decision to count ballots which are incorrectly dated. I don’t want there to be any chance my vote won’t be counted. Also, there are no lines most years at my polling location, and it’s close to home.
Easy is exactly what the GQP wants to avoid/prevent. They KNOW they lose in a fair election, so they’ve been focused on voter suppression for well over a decade.
Oregon is so ahead, you guys have a few progressive driving laws too! Glad to to be allowed to pump my own fuel now!
"In Erie, Harris leads female voters by an even wider 55%-35% margin. Trump leads among male voters in Northampton 53%-44% and male voters in Erie 52%-42%."
Thank you, ladies, once again. And thanks Jay for the numbers and encouragement.
Those numbers among men are infuriating.
We men who loathe Trump need to intensely verbalize our positions and work hard to find ways to get some of these men to change their minds. I already know most of the processes for doing so at a meta level because they're talked about a lot here and similar forums, and I do what I can.
But for me, it also must happen during one on ones, like this:
"Hey, up for some pickleball?"
"Are you voting for Trump?"
"Well... ummmm..." (because nobody admits it)
"No. I only play pickleball with people whose brains have not been pickled during the last 8 years."
Thank YOU for being one of those men who want progress regarding gender equality!
Sorry, MAGAs and I run in totally different circles. Also, even though not religious, I like the biblical saying about not casting one's pearls before swine. In the past I learned there is nothing I can say that will unwash the dug in MAGA mindset.
I live in Georgia. I probably have about 3 friends who I suspect to be Trump supporters, but they won't admit it. I will say I think they, and others, will sit this one out, something the polls do not reflect.
I’m thinking the same as you Charles. I suspect some Republicans will get to the point they can’t hold their noses tight enough and leave the top of the ticket empty, but then check ‘R’ all of the rest of the way down. That may not bode well for the senate.
I'll be very interested to see how these numbers change after the VP debate on October 1st. I assume they will change in favor of Kamala/Walz, but honestly how can we even be this close?
I don’t understand why there are undecided voters. The choice between hate and love should be clear. A con liar felon versus a prosecuting attorney? Good grief, Charlie Brown!
A lot of people just don't follow the news -- and I can't say I blame them. They're living their lives. All they know is that gas and groceries are more expensive.
Those are the people Harris has to reach. The good news is that it doesn't take much to remind them of Jan. 6 and other things they've flushed out of their short-term memories.
I highly doubt there are true undecideds. These folks are leaning one way and don’t want to admit it.
Either you love TFG and agree with all his racist, malicious acts or you absolutely hate him.
I’m in the latter group.
Trumpites live in an information universe in which they only encounter “facts” approved by Trump and his ilk.
I'm very much looking forward to the Walz/couch boy debate!
Chris Bouzy released his newest electoral maps. The national election for Prez. looks great, but the Senate is a cliffhanger. Tester and Allred need help, or we need better polling.
Bouzy has Harris-Walz winning 349 electoral votes, Trump 166. The Senate is a dead heat, 50-50.
Tester MAY be helped by the abortion rights amendment on the ballot.
Let’s hope the folks who vote yes will also vote for Tester.
Ditto for here in Ohio. We have an anti gerrymandering amendment on the ballot.
Hopefully it helps Sherrod Brown.
(Really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to vote for the Maga when you’re voting to restore a women’s bodily autonomy or restore fair representation.)
Totally agreed that if reproductive rights are important to a voter they should never vote Republican - but some of them absolutely will- especially the ones who think they are safe in a blue state like California, NY, NJ where abortion is legal. They need to learn about the Comstock Act, which will absolutely be used if Trump gets into the White House.
Too many people do not understand how politics and overall government works, at the US or state level.
In this era, I no longer hold much faith polls because (1) very few except the elderly have landlines, and (2) most people don't answer unknown numbers on the cell phones.
In 2016 and 2020, I preferred to observe lawn signs and political placards around my county. Living in Ohio, in a very red gerrymandered county, in 2016, Trump flags and signs were all over the rural areas, People were flying them from silos. In more urban areas, it was Clinton. 2020 was much the same, except with the notable observation that many clear Republican voters left out the headline ticket, but put up signs supporting down-ballot Republicans.
This year, at least in my county of Ohio, I'm seeing DEVOUT Republicans sneaking in a Democrat running for county commissioner -- which is somewhat of a shock. Most Republicans are also not putting out Trump/Vance signs, but *are* putting out down-ballot signs. OTOH, the Democrats have Trump/Walz signs all over their yards, along with the down-ballot races.
This trend is a wildfire after the Springfield events of last week. On one corner in our village, there is a guy who has confederate flags, Trump flags and placards (and, well, of course, Ohio State fags). This has developed into somewhat of a gas war (remember those?) because his neighbors have all started hanging their Harris/Walz signs, Vote yes on Issue #1 (putting an end to gerrymandering), and signs for the first Democrats to actually run here, when Republicans have been uncontested for years. One cheeky homeowner even put up a Michigan flag.
Life in the Alice's Looking Glass goes on.
A Trump/Walz sign must be an odd bird! :)
Simon Rosenberg calls outfits like InsiderAdvantage 'red wave pollsters' because they're paid for by republicans for the sole purpose of jacking the state polling margins with aggregators like 538 to make Trump and republicans look stronger than they actually are. They missed by a mile in 2022.
I think women are smart enough not to trust Trump or Vance when it comes to abortion, IVF or anything else to do with women's bodily autonomy. Likewise, the vile, racist attacks on Haitian immigrants are repulsing women voters. Finally, Trump's unwillingness during the debate to side with Ukraine over Russia will NOT land well with the large Polish American communities in PA. They know what happened in Europe under German and then Russian occupation. Trump left that door wide open, and Kamala Harris walked through it and locked arms with the Polish communities.
People lie on polls all the time to throw off trend lines. Lots of nefarious maneuvering. I stopped paying attention to them a long time ago.
I do believe that women and the 65’ers (Social Security and Medicare group) will carry us over the finish line this year.
I hope people will vote STRAIGHT BLUE to help down ballot races for House and Senate.
What is being done to protect against DeJoy messing around with mail-in votes, delaying delivery, or just 'losing' the mail, particularly in places like AZ, NV, and PA? In VA I can check on whether they counted my vote and have a pretty high degree of confidence it was counted accurately. I tend to do mail-in so I can do my research and fill it out at the kitchen table in my own time, but I no longer trust dropping that mail-in ballot off at USPS, I walk it down to the local city hall polling station to a box dedicated to mail-in ballots down there.
I suspect the younger people will lean towards doing that over heading physically to the polls. Or do early voting in-person, if their state has it at all.
Cannot wait for the Voting Rights Act to pass and start to be vigorously enforced. Voting should be easy, not a goddamn obstacle course.
Here in PA, we can avoid the DeJoy effect by taking our mail ballots to an official election drop box, where ballots are collected each night and delivered to the election office...avoiding the post office altogether. My drop box is at the local library, 5 minutes away. It works very well indeed.
I live in Mexico but am a US citizen and am eligible to vote, using PA as my home state. I have registered over the internet with the Bucks County Board of Elections. When I receive my online ballot, I'll print it out, sign and date it, and take to the US Embassy, which is a short walk from my apartment in Mexico City. Embassy personnel will send off all the ballots they receive, so that they'll be counted in a timely fashion. Of course, I'll be voting Blue all up and down the ballot!
This is a fantastic break-down of how polls work. I’m excited about the numbers in polls leaning Harris and increasing, but especially happy about the county break-down leaning Harris. Let’s all keep working to bring Harris/Walz victory November 5, 2024. Blue for the win! Thank you Jay for all you do.
Perhaps the good women of Erie County and Northampton County in Pennsylvania -- or good women in any county anywhere -- could employ Lysistrata's famous approach to induce their male partners to join them in voting for the sanity of Harris and Walz instead of the insanity and viciousness of trump and vance.
I posited that same approach several months ago. In case Lysistrata isn’t familiar to you, to put it bluntly, the women cut their warring husbands off until their lower brains finally kicked in and figured the way to peace.
Very cogent and compelling analysis regarding a totally must-win state for Harris-Walz. I subscribed to the Phila. Inquirer just to get some insight into the race there, and a recent article highlights the Dem problems in working-class counties outside Pittsburgh and Philly. Luzerne County was formerly a Democratic stronghold, but now it's tRump country, and this piece illustrates why:
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-coal-town-voters-harris-20240917.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mnl_9_17_2024&clickText=leaning-light-red-in-luzerne&clickHeader=leaning-light-red-in-luzerne&int_promo=newsletter&utm_term=Morning%20Newsletter
It's a battle in PA, Dems aren't taking anything for granted, for obvious reasons.
Don’t you think one of the reasons Ms. Harris didn’t pick Josh Shapiro was so he could work PA like it has never been worked before to help get PA firmly in the Dem electoral column?
Maybe! But damn if Walz isn’t as American as Apple Pie and he has bird dog!
I thoroughly support the choice of Coach Tim as Veep. In fact, when the names were first released to the press as to whom Kamala was looking at I picked Coach as my choice.
and a gun! and free food for all school kids ... now that's a winning formula!
Yes. She needs him in place there.
And also to safeguard election results as he did in 2020.
Ummm . . . it might not have needed so much work if he’d been on the ballot.
It's mind-boggling after all these years that working class people have not learned what Republicans do to them - or, the outrageous salaries that these Executives make on their backs.
Great article, thanks.
“The PA Dems Voter Protection and Organizing teams are working hard to make sure that every voter's voice is heard this November and we need your help! Please join us in making calls to voters who need help "curing" their ballots.”
https://www.mobilize.us/2024yesshecancampaign/event/676131/
Kathy, are calls only to registered Dems? Tia.
I'm so sick of the racist, antiquated Electoral College, I could vomit. 5 states should not decide anything for the entire country, especially something this important.
I don't think I'll breathe easy until the election is over and Harris is Madame President.