Yes, to all of that, and it seems like the electorate everywhere is sort of itching for change for change's sake. Not terribly uncommon, but it seems more so now.
I'm encouraged by two things. One, is articles like this, which is a strong GOTV message from an LGBTQ+ publication:
I'm a strong supporter of the LGBTQ+ community but I can't claim to be a direct part of it, so I don't know how influential they are, but it feels important that this kind of stuff is getting out there.
The other thing I'm noticing is that some of the business press is picking up the info from a recent MSNBC video about how Biden outfoxed OPEC using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to flood the market with oil to help stabilize oil prices. He actually bought oil on the cheap, then turned around and sold it for about a $30/per barrel profit, netting the treasury a whole lot of money (I forget the amount). It helps that he's also essentially banned Russian oil from the trading market.
Biden is starting to get incremental credit for thinking through the various economic problems he inherited. The petroleum reserve fix was very creative.
He's the first president to offer a legit chance to stabilize oil prices, and he's mixing that with green infrastructure programs.
Jon Stewart was poking fun at him over his reaction to a question about Trump's conviction. Biden just ignored the question and walked away from the podium. Then he stopped. Stewart was yelling, "No for the love of God don't stop."
Biden just gave this sly, somewhat dark smile and look, then walked on. Stewart, who I do like, complained.
Maybe I'm getting old, but I thought Biden's reaction was gold.
A guy in the small community near me checked out the max allowed,100, LGBTQ books from his library. He encouraged everyone else to do this. So no one could read these “filthy books!”
If they’d just mind their own Fing business this world would be so much better.
Excellent analyses. Here in France 🇫🇷 it seems Pres. Macron’s counter-intuitive move will “call the question” and although a big gamble, I think he’s betting that the EU election results will be a big bucket of cold water splashing in the face of the left and center
I hope so. I’m American but live in the EU now (Sweden). I was glad to see our right wing lost ground. It’s disturbing how influential the right can be.
The consistent movement in the polls towards President Biden since trumps conviction has given me some hope. Gas prices are dropping, and the economy is quite resilient. BUT - ignore the polls and don't get complacent is my mantra.
And with us “officially” in summer now, you can expect gas prices to go up, as they have *always* done historically. You know, that “supply-and-demand” thing.
And don’t be fooled by the media stories! I had a person in the Comments on a Chris Cillizza Substack article (his column is called “So What”) tell me that gas prices are $4.50, when AAA acknowledges that the average price across the US right *now* is $3.64. How did he get the “impression” that it was a dollar more than it is? Misinformation and disinformation.
When you live in California, $4.50 per gallon is considered a good deal. The commenter may simply not have experience with gas prices in Mississippi or Montana. Nor considered them relevant.
People in California know their gas is more expensive than in the rest of the country.
It's just trying to manufacture a narrative. I don't think it can be very effective when people can see the dozens of "$3.49.9" signs they're driving past every day.
For those who don't know: Our gas prices are high here in California because we levy a high tax on it. The tax doesn't change, but the price goes up and down as in the rest of the country.
Strangely, gas around me has gone down dramatically. Although someone is not happy with that, because I see the price of a barrel going up for no good reason. Speculation at it's finest!
Remember, too, that US national polls are meaningless.
The Presidential election is actually 51 separate elections, each with its own set of rules. National polling may terrify or energize some voters, particularly the loyal bases which must shake their collective heads at the strength of the opposition.
We must all focus on what each of us can do--registering voters, for example, helping like-minded voters get to the polls, etc.
More than 6 million US citizens--both military and civilian--reside outside the US and each one of us can vote, too. That includes thousands of college students studying overseas.
I can’t help noticing that the countries where people have had actual experience with autocracies are moving away from them, while the countries that have never experienced autocracy think it’s a fun thing to try.
Regarding Biden and the border, geez I hope they know what they’re doing. I freely admit that they know more about the facts and maybe even the politics, but FFS if they’re thinking “Now Republicans can’t criticize us about the border” I’m gonna throw a chair. Cf. the discourse on the deficit for the past 45 years.
Take Biden's action together with the Republicans tanking their own immigration bill with the explicit, and well publicised, intent of keeping immigration as an issue alive so Trump has something to campaign on.
Then it makes a lot of sense.
As a border resident (I can walk to the Mexican fence), unfortunately immigration is a real issue here, regardless of numbers. Neighbors are complaining about things like trash left behind and campfires being lit that then increase the risk of wildfires. When you have eyewitnesses, friends, who have personally witnessed these things, it becomes hard to explain that the numbers are actually down.
Of course the real problem is that the border wall built in the 1990s turned what used to be a fairly safe crossing into a life-threatening endeavour.
"I can’t help noticing that the countries where people have had actual experience with autocracies are moving away from them, while the countries that have never experienced autocracy think it’s a fun thing to try"
Then how do you explain the move to the right in France, Germany, and the Netherlands?
Germany had an actual autocracy while France and the Netherlands were occupied by one during WWII. One would think they would never want that again. Have they forgotten what it was like or are they so disgusted with the present leadership that an autocracy looks appealing?
The move to the right seems like a world-wide thing, and it's scary.
This is an important point. Those of us old enough to have parents or grandparents who experienced a world war are better attuned to the horrors of fascism and dictatorships. The US today is much more similar politically to 1930s Germany than we’d like to admit. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
If you look which states of Germany voted for the right wing AFD it is the old division between East Germany and West Germany. East voted AFD and West vote conservative middle. Besides getting decades of subsidies the Eastern economy never caught up to the one in the West and that is a breeding ground for populists like the AFD.
Germany actually had *two* autocracies (three if you count the emperor), and the last one is something Millenials have personally experienced. Part of the problem is that Germany utterly mishandled the end of the cold war. As a result, a large share of the population is nostalgic for either East Germany, or is looking for a new authoritarian regime from the right.
PS (I hit Send too soon): Two weeks after Biden’s opponent was convicted of 34 felonies and the administration is talking about the one issue Trump wants the entire election to be about. Makes me nervous.
I totally agree with your first sentence. Once the “funsters” experience Trump’s autocratic rule, they’ll be eager to vote him out. Too late‼️… once he gets back in voting will be rigged to always keep him in power. Or there just might not be any more voting.
‼️Voters better THINK before making their choice this November‼️
From my perspective as a volunteer docent at three museums/gardens in LA County and as a member of several others, the economy is kinda hopping. These places are crowded with families (tally up the admi$$ion prices!) who buy food and souvenirs (tally up the overpri¢ed items!). We have reasonable retirement income, no kids, no debt, and rent not own our abode, so we avail ourselves of dining out ever so often - in restaurants full of families. Indeed, we pass waaay too many folks living (?) on the streets, but folks in general seem to be going places and spending money. Still and all, VOTE!
I sort of use the "retail" test, too. There's a lot of spending going on. People are upset about housing prices. Democrats need to do a better job of helping folks understand that the introduction of private equity to home ownership is helping fuel that.
I also do the crane test. I see them popping up all over the place. New construction is always a good gauge. I haven't looked at numbers in that regard, though. :-)
Retail - indeed, the malls are so crowded I still mask up. Cranes - same here, but then lots of empty storefronts in busy thoroughfares in LA. Scratch my head on that one. I'm not a home-owner or trying to be one, but the prices are outrageous and we've rented the same apartment for 24 years for a rather reasonable amount. I'm not going by any official numbers, either, just my spidey sense as a citizen and talking with my friendly neighbors, ranging in age 2-82.
I think Dems like Biden are aware of the housing situation, but they were left with such a monumental mess they have not yet devised workable solutions. It's not an easy set of fixes, I don't think.
I don't understand how Trump is anywhere near even 30% of the vote. People don't remember the mess he left behind?
It was said of Reagan that he spent his entire time in office running against Jimmy Carter. People are quick to begrudge and slow to reconcile. Republicans have demonized Democrats for so long it's become ingrained in the culture. That, and the fact that Biden is showing up trickledown for the fraud it has been, delivering a serious blow to the Republican ego, even among the very people whose prospects trickledown eroded. Consequently, Biden's success has only worsened his standing with the right. It's the people who don't pay attention to politics who need to be persuaded, and that will take constant messaging in as many outlets as possible.
I truly believe the polls are being gamed, by both the pollsters and the responders. I have resolved not to look at any polls before the election. I live in a red state and I don't have a sense that people are struggling in this economy, nor that people are angry over the multitude of culture wars we are pushed to be angry about. I have a clear sense that people are fed up with the games being played by the Republicans and they will express their displeasure in the voting booth.
One thing that is missing in the media's analysis of these elections is discussion of the overt and covert disinformation campaigns by Russia to support far right wing candidates and undermine anyone who supports Ukraine against Putin's criminal invasion.
I have several comments in response to your post, Jay.
First of all, thank you for mentioning the good news coming out of Eastern Europe. I hadn't seen that. You'd think from the msm coverage it hadn't happened.
Second, not to throw cold water on the good economic news, house prices are still way out of reach and getting worse. I live in the Los Angeles area and I've never seen anything like this. Little nothings are going for close to $2 million. Larger houses are even more outrageously priced. This is happening despite higher interest rates. I would like to move but my husband and I can't begin to afford to. So I can understand people's frustration and I would not say that my state's economy is in good shape (especially since our insurance rates are going up exponentially).
But third, this is something personal that no one seems to be addressing. If the worst happens in November, how are people planning to cope? We are considering moving to the UK, which is where my husband is from, but I don't want to go. I'm 74 years old and I do not want to start over in my old age. And yet the thought of living in this country with Project 2025 looming and a senile mafia boss in control is unbearable. What are all of you planning to do?
I doubt there's any way to control housing costs with Republicans in a majority in Congress. Here in Atlanta, 3 private equity firms own something like 19,000 rental homes.
My understanding is that it's a much worse situation in California. I thought I read somewhere that this problem was being looked at by Newsom and company, but I may be mistaken.
This is probably a pretty terrible time to buy a home. I've bought a couple over the years, and I wouldn't try to buy now. There's definitely a bubble, some of it fueled by industry practice that is overdue for a legislative reckoning.
As for what I'll do if Trump wins? It's sort of too horrible to contemplate. As an older white male, you'd think I'd be just fine, but none of us will be, and how can I be fine if more than half the country is suffering?
Honestly, if I had to go off the grid to fight that regime, I probably would.
One of the things our legislature has done to try to bring supply up and prices down is change zoning so that there are no longer any single-family-home neighborhoods. From my point of view this is a disaster. Subdividing lots devastates community, increases noise and traffic, and strains water and electricity supplies. My fix for the problem is unpopular and will never be implemented: raise taxes and end deductions so that house flipping and short-term rentals are unattractive. This would have to be done largely at the federal level although some things regarding Air B&B and other short-term rentals could be handled locally. Of course reducing inequality, which also has to be done at the federal level, would change everything. But no one listens to me.
When you say off the grid, do you mean leaving the country or literally going off the grid and underground?
I mean underground, depending on how bad things get.
I don't see across the board rezoning like that as a good idea. Locals need some kind of control. In Atlanta, that kind of zoning has worked pretty well, but it has issues. The urban neighborhood I live in is fairly upscale, but there are lots of apartment complexes around here, too. McMansions, old Victorian and Edwardian homes, and apartment complexes. An interesting mix.
I think a way to cut out house flipping would be great, but I am not knowledgeable enough in that area to understand what the best solutions would be.
I really hope it doesn't come to that, for all our sakes.
And yes, locals need control. There are a few things we can do, such as regulate the amount of setback that's required in front of a house, but the basics are set by the state. And BTW, in California that's a Democratic legislature! Shame on them.
I don't even know what "go underground" or off the grid means. Resisting can't involve hurting people, so I don't know what the options are. People talk about moving to other countries, but that's harder than is advertised.
It is very difficult to leave. Some people have managed it already, like my friends who moved to Mexico, but it's a huge undertaking and impossible for some destinations. As far as "underground" is concerned, I would think about what people did during WW II. There are also specific issues that can be addressed, but I won't mention them here. They don't involve hurting anyone though.
The big elephant in the room with housing costs is that it's a darn-if-you-do-darn-if-you-don't situation, politically speaking. The problem is that lower home values would devastate the retirement plans for gazillions of people. Politicians have, for generations, told people that home ownership is the ideal investment and to make home ownership a cornerstone of their retirement plans. Home ownership is not just about having a place to live in retirement, but also about financial security through refinancing, HELOCs, and reverse mortgages.
Politicians of both parties have no choice but to keep housing values stable or rising. But housing values are just the flip side of housing cost.
You've nailed it, Kevin. And for the last 20 years housing has been a business rather than about shelter. Once interest rates started to fall it was all over for everyone but the flippers. And now we're stuck. I don't know how we're going to get out of this.
I am a 72 yr old widow from England and considered looking into going back. Finances are scary for me as I have only one SS check and a little savings, so not sure if I can afford it. (And who knows what will happen w/SS under P25?). The other thing is my five children and 14 grandkids. We should NOT be in the position of thinking of fleeing!
Yikes! I completely agree. We should not have to become refugees. I am writing voter postcards almost every day. I hope that helps but who knows? Please keep in touch. We may both end up in the UK.
I live in Los Angeles as well, and am a native here, and have bought/sold homes 3 times here. To take CA retail home prices and from that throw “cold water” on the clearly good economic news that comes out is the absolute *worst* (and incorrect) conclusion to reach! It’s like taking CA gas prices and thinking the rest of the US is just as bad!
Given that our 3 sons now live outside CA, and we keep our eye on home prices in their areas (Portland OR, Vancouver WA, and Boulder CO), I see the high price of CA RE on a regular basis. We are, and have been, SO out of line with the rest of the country.
Unless you’re talking about Bel Air, Palisades, Brentwood, etc., I think your estimation is a bit exaggerated, ie little homes at $2M. Don’t get me wrong! Prices here are stupid, but I don’t believe they’re quite as bad as you suggest. Example: we live just north of the San Fernando Valley in LA County, and our 1707 sq ft home is now valued at a little under $1.1M. Would we actually *get* that on the market? I doubt it.
We live in Agoura Hills. We bought about 18 years ago for $707K, and after a “market correction”, we’d probably be able to sell reasonably easily for $985K or so. A home in our neighborhood, around 2200 square ft just sold for $1.299M and it wasn’t anything particularly special, ie no outdoor kitchen/dining area, pool, water feature, etc.
OMG, we're neighbors! I live in Simi Valley. We used to live in Agoura backing to Mulholland Highway. (Never should have sold that house.) But the figures you're citing don't surprise me at all. Our house value has doubled in eleven years!
I would like to see an article like that too. I'm convinced that all-cash buyers like private equity are making the problem much worse. I suspect rich foreigners are contributing as well. I don't think there's that much of a shortage either. The problem is one of affordability and holding back houses to rent by the day or week. Now that it's so difficult to make money by working for other people, a lot of people have turned to renting out houses and apartments for parties and vacationers. It's really hurting people who want to buy and rent.
I've already mentioned my solutions for fixing house prices. I'll add to that my solutions for making jobs and incomes better: bring jobs back to the US. No outsourcing, and let's make our own stuff here in the US. Tax policy can help there. Also better support for unions, and limits on CEO compensation and stock buybacks. And trust-busting. Amazon and Wal-Mart need to be broken up.
That's another two cents' worth that no one will listen to. 😀
It’s both and. There really is a housing shortage, inadequate building relative to the trajectory of the population growth, and things like LLCs buying houses. Zoning and building density are also problems, as is poor infrastructure that privileges cars above all else.
The extreme movement of the federal courts to "no more than a political arm of the GOP" was largely empowered by Moscow Mitch's blockade on Obama's appointments, and then changing the rules to allow T-Rump to stack the courts.
Word is that Senate GOP has just announced a similar blockade in hopes of stacking openings for after the election. The country has already had a taste of this tactic, and should, more than any other aspect, drive voters to clear the senate, house, and White House of GOP this fall. Otherwise, we will see the radical, activist courts that are currently letting Trump skate on crimes while stripping away rights of the rest of the nation, become vastly more powerful.
Thanks for talking about the elections in Europe. I just happened to see a post yesterday that linked to the results. These elections in Europe are important, and it’s like the corporate media doesn’t know anything about it.
That’s probably true. However, with all that’s going on in the US and the world, the news that our strongest allies may also be sliding towards the “right” or fascism again is very alarming. We need all the help we can get in the months and years ahead. It must be especially terrifying for Ukraine.
I live in France also, and have been a resident for five years. I appreciate Paris and Prosperity’s comment and agree with the premise. Three things worth considering on what’s going on in France:
1) In spite of the NYTime’s typical sensational reporting, the National Rally party still got just 32% of the vote in France. Not ~40% like the MAGAts in the US. Given that France has a multi-party parliamentary system rather than a two-party system like the US, the sane people are still in charge for the time being.
2) The National Rally party is not as far-right as the Republican Party in the US; that according to political scientist research (easy to look up). Even they advocate for labor protections, for example. And, notably, they do not advocate for throwing out national health care, family support (child/day care, family leave when having a child, etc.), or affordable education. Immigration is a big issue here, too, but on that point, at least, I get it. Read Nicholas Kristoff’s piece in today’s NYT (one of the few worthwhile articles there) about Biden’s recent immigration about-face. That’s a good summation of what the EU is dealing with.
3) Say what you like about Macron, for better or for worse, but the bottom line is, I truly believe he has the best interests of France at heart, and that is, as much as any political calculation, why he’s called for a snap parliamentary election. He’s had a tough time over his first two years having to work on passing legislation with a coalition of parties in Parliament, so I can understand that he’s feeling like, “OK, let the people decide going forward in the next three years of my presidency.” At least then whatever the result is will force those who are elected to work on legislating rather than sinking into resentment and bomb-throwing like Marjorie Three Toes, as a comparison. At the end of the day, France is still a functioning democracy.
I remain optimistic for the EU experiment—and the American democracy experiment, too.
thanks for this important evaluation Jay. I feel like there’s a piece missing that I wanted to bring up and it could be a little touchy. I am a Democrat… Definitely a progressive and most of the people, in my sphere of influence are as well. What I am noticing is, whether people are in their 70s and 80s or in their 20s… And I interact with a lot of people… Most of the ones I know are relatively happy with Biden but there is a silence going on regarding the links to aipac, and not coming down hard enough on Netanyahu. I have a feeling that most of the people who are older are going to vote for Biden… But if we don’t pay attention to the youth, who are disgusted by the genocide against the Palestinians… Biden may not be able to get their votes and they are a pretty important voting population.
In the past, we have discounted the youth vote… But with an attack on reproductive rights, LGBTQ, and now, the Palestinians… I’m really concerned that that voting block will be lost because of the silence regarding Netenyahu.
Just to clarify Hamas is a terrorist organization and what they did on October 7 was horrible… A response needed to happen… However, the displacement and deaths of so many Palestinians… Is unacceptable. The world can see that this is really about a land grab.
Again, I think this issue needs to be addressed… Even if it gets Extremist Zionists unhappy.
I would just add that other than France, the projected right wing wins in the rest of Europe were very small. And hopefully Macron pulls off his snap election. But I think your analysis about voter behavior is spot on and helpful in thinking about the US election and what we can do.
That chart makes me want to scream. How can people possibly believe the economy was better under trump... brain damage from covid? People are traveling more than ever before, and that ain't cheap. The markets are soaring, but yeah, that's only great for the already wealthy. I do worry about private firms owning so much housing.
I like the wording and message on the sign shown on the intro photograph. Democrats need to use that, but also mention who we all will get if voters sit out the top of the ticket.
As for Jay’s thoughts on the SC -
“So far, however, the Biden Campaign has not leaned harder on the question of the Court’s corruption and the dire need for reform, instead being satisfied with attacking horrific decisions like Dobbs. Perhaps we will see more calls from the Biden Campaign for voter rejection of the extremist Court as Election Day nears.”
I’m hoping those gloves come off and the corruption and bias of the SC is directly addressed by the Biden campaign, but I’m guessing they’re waiting until after the end of the current session on or slightly after June 30. No need to give Alito, Thomas and Roberts more cause to rewrite what is probably already a draft of a disastrous decision and make it even more devastating. Then again the six conservative injustices like using the shadow docket as their personal pulpit.
Yes, to all of that, and it seems like the electorate everywhere is sort of itching for change for change's sake. Not terribly uncommon, but it seems more so now.
I'm encouraged by two things. One, is articles like this, which is a strong GOTV message from an LGBTQ+ publication:
https://www.losangelesblade.com/2024/06/05/be-afraid-maga-wants-a-christian-theocracy/
I'm a strong supporter of the LGBTQ+ community but I can't claim to be a direct part of it, so I don't know how influential they are, but it feels important that this kind of stuff is getting out there.
The other thing I'm noticing is that some of the business press is picking up the info from a recent MSNBC video about how Biden outfoxed OPEC using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to flood the market with oil to help stabilize oil prices. He actually bought oil on the cheap, then turned around and sold it for about a $30/per barrel profit, netting the treasury a whole lot of money (I forget the amount). It helps that he's also essentially banned Russian oil from the trading market.
Biden is starting to get incremental credit for thinking through the various economic problems he inherited. The petroleum reserve fix was very creative.
He's the first president to offer a legit chance to stabilize oil prices, and he's mixing that with green infrastructure programs.
He's much sharper than he gets credit for, IMO.
He's MUCH sharper than he gets credit for.
Jon Stewart was poking fun at him over his reaction to a question about Trump's conviction. Biden just ignored the question and walked away from the podium. Then he stopped. Stewart was yelling, "No for the love of God don't stop."
Biden just gave this sly, somewhat dark smile and look, then walked on. Stewart, who I do like, complained.
Maybe I'm getting old, but I thought Biden's reaction was gold.
A guy in the small community near me checked out the max allowed,100, LGBTQ books from his library. He encouraged everyone else to do this. So no one could read these “filthy books!”
If they’d just mind their own Fing business this world would be so much better.
Excellent analyses. Here in France 🇫🇷 it seems Pres. Macron’s counter-intuitive move will “call the question” and although a big gamble, I think he’s betting that the EU election results will be a big bucket of cold water splashing in the face of the left and center
I hope you and he are right, and that it’s not Brexit 2.
I hope so. I’m American but live in the EU now (Sweden). I was glad to see our right wing lost ground. It’s disturbing how influential the right can be.
It has been disturbing. Some of us are watching.
This makes sense to me, too. I don't live in Europe, but I read enough about politics there to get the sense that this is exactly his plan/hope.
The consistent movement in the polls towards President Biden since trumps conviction has given me some hope. Gas prices are dropping, and the economy is quite resilient. BUT - ignore the polls and don't get complacent is my mantra.
And with us “officially” in summer now, you can expect gas prices to go up, as they have *always* done historically. You know, that “supply-and-demand” thing.
And don’t be fooled by the media stories! I had a person in the Comments on a Chris Cillizza Substack article (his column is called “So What”) tell me that gas prices are $4.50, when AAA acknowledges that the average price across the US right *now* is $3.64. How did he get the “impression” that it was a dollar more than it is? Misinformation and disinformation.
When you live in California, $4.50 per gallon is considered a good deal. The commenter may simply not have experience with gas prices in Mississippi or Montana. Nor considered them relevant.
If I saw gas here for $4.50, I’d have to wonder “what’s wrong with that gas?”. 🤣. It’s $5.30 a gallon here now…
People in California know their gas is more expensive than in the rest of the country.
It's just trying to manufacture a narrative. I don't think it can be very effective when people can see the dozens of "$3.49.9" signs they're driving past every day.
For those who don't know: Our gas prices are high here in California because we levy a high tax on it. The tax doesn't change, but the price goes up and down as in the rest of the country.
Strangely, gas around me has gone down dramatically. Although someone is not happy with that, because I see the price of a barrel going up for no good reason. Speculation at it's finest!
Remember, too, that US national polls are meaningless.
The Presidential election is actually 51 separate elections, each with its own set of rules. National polling may terrify or energize some voters, particularly the loyal bases which must shake their collective heads at the strength of the opposition.
We must all focus on what each of us can do--registering voters, for example, helping like-minded voters get to the polls, etc.
More than 6 million US citizens--both military and civilian--reside outside the US and each one of us can vote, too. That includes thousands of college students studying overseas.
Overseas Americans can request their ballot via votefromabroad.org
Also read Civil Discourse by Joyce Vance’s Substack dated June 5 for more ways to help out this election.
I can’t help noticing that the countries where people have had actual experience with autocracies are moving away from them, while the countries that have never experienced autocracy think it’s a fun thing to try.
Regarding Biden and the border, geez I hope they know what they’re doing. I freely admit that they know more about the facts and maybe even the politics, but FFS if they’re thinking “Now Republicans can’t criticize us about the border” I’m gonna throw a chair. Cf. the discourse on the deficit for the past 45 years.
Take Biden's action together with the Republicans tanking their own immigration bill with the explicit, and well publicised, intent of keeping immigration as an issue alive so Trump has something to campaign on.
Then it makes a lot of sense.
As a border resident (I can walk to the Mexican fence), unfortunately immigration is a real issue here, regardless of numbers. Neighbors are complaining about things like trash left behind and campfires being lit that then increase the risk of wildfires. When you have eyewitnesses, friends, who have personally witnessed these things, it becomes hard to explain that the numbers are actually down.
Of course the real problem is that the border wall built in the 1990s turned what used to be a fairly safe crossing into a life-threatening endeavour.
"I can’t help noticing that the countries where people have had actual experience with autocracies are moving away from them, while the countries that have never experienced autocracy think it’s a fun thing to try"
Then how do you explain the move to the right in France, Germany, and the Netherlands?
Germany had an actual autocracy while France and the Netherlands were occupied by one during WWII. One would think they would never want that again. Have they forgotten what it was like or are they so disgusted with the present leadership that an autocracy looks appealing?
The move to the right seems like a world-wide thing, and it's scary.
In those countries you mentioned their grandparents, and great-grandparents experienced fascism, they’ve only learned about it.
This is an important point. Those of us old enough to have parents or grandparents who experienced a world war are better attuned to the horrors of fascism and dictatorships. The US today is much more similar politically to 1930s Germany than we’d like to admit. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
"Have they forgotten what it was like"
That was 80 years ago. We US Americans can't even remember what things were like during the Trump administration. So, yes. They have.
If you look which states of Germany voted for the right wing AFD it is the old division between East Germany and West Germany. East voted AFD and West vote conservative middle. Besides getting decades of subsidies the Eastern economy never caught up to the one in the West and that is a breeding ground for populists like the AFD.
Occupation is not like an elected right wing government. It’s about nationalism and fear oh how the countries ar3 changing with immigrants.
Germany actually had *two* autocracies (three if you count the emperor), and the last one is something Millenials have personally experienced. Part of the problem is that Germany utterly mishandled the end of the cold war. As a result, a large share of the population is nostalgic for either East Germany, or is looking for a new authoritarian regime from the right.
PS (I hit Send too soon): Two weeks after Biden’s opponent was convicted of 34 felonies and the administration is talking about the one issue Trump wants the entire election to be about. Makes me nervous.
I totally agree with your first sentence. Once the “funsters” experience Trump’s autocratic rule, they’ll be eager to vote him out. Too late‼️… once he gets back in voting will be rigged to always keep him in power. Or there just might not be any more voting.
‼️Voters better THINK before making their choice this November‼️
From my perspective as a volunteer docent at three museums/gardens in LA County and as a member of several others, the economy is kinda hopping. These places are crowded with families (tally up the admi$$ion prices!) who buy food and souvenirs (tally up the overpri¢ed items!). We have reasonable retirement income, no kids, no debt, and rent not own our abode, so we avail ourselves of dining out ever so often - in restaurants full of families. Indeed, we pass waaay too many folks living (?) on the streets, but folks in general seem to be going places and spending money. Still and all, VOTE!
I sort of use the "retail" test, too. There's a lot of spending going on. People are upset about housing prices. Democrats need to do a better job of helping folks understand that the introduction of private equity to home ownership is helping fuel that.
I also do the crane test. I see them popping up all over the place. New construction is always a good gauge. I haven't looked at numbers in that regard, though. :-)
Retail - indeed, the malls are so crowded I still mask up. Cranes - same here, but then lots of empty storefronts in busy thoroughfares in LA. Scratch my head on that one. I'm not a home-owner or trying to be one, but the prices are outrageous and we've rented the same apartment for 24 years for a rather reasonable amount. I'm not going by any official numbers, either, just my spidey sense as a citizen and talking with my friendly neighbors, ranging in age 2-82.
I think Dems like Biden are aware of the housing situation, but they were left with such a monumental mess they have not yet devised workable solutions. It's not an easy set of fixes, I don't think.
I don't understand how Trump is anywhere near even 30% of the vote. People don't remember the mess he left behind?
It was said of Reagan that he spent his entire time in office running against Jimmy Carter. People are quick to begrudge and slow to reconcile. Republicans have demonized Democrats for so long it's become ingrained in the culture. That, and the fact that Biden is showing up trickledown for the fraud it has been, delivering a serious blow to the Republican ego, even among the very people whose prospects trickledown eroded. Consequently, Biden's success has only worsened his standing with the right. It's the people who don't pay attention to politics who need to be persuaded, and that will take constant messaging in as many outlets as possible.
I truly believe the polls are being gamed, by both the pollsters and the responders. I have resolved not to look at any polls before the election. I live in a red state and I don't have a sense that people are struggling in this economy, nor that people are angry over the multitude of culture wars we are pushed to be angry about. I have a clear sense that people are fed up with the games being played by the Republicans and they will express their displeasure in the voting booth.
Good points. The results of every special election that I can think of so far say that you are correct.
One thing that is missing in the media's analysis of these elections is discussion of the overt and covert disinformation campaigns by Russia to support far right wing candidates and undermine anyone who supports Ukraine against Putin's criminal invasion.
I have several comments in response to your post, Jay.
First of all, thank you for mentioning the good news coming out of Eastern Europe. I hadn't seen that. You'd think from the msm coverage it hadn't happened.
Second, not to throw cold water on the good economic news, house prices are still way out of reach and getting worse. I live in the Los Angeles area and I've never seen anything like this. Little nothings are going for close to $2 million. Larger houses are even more outrageously priced. This is happening despite higher interest rates. I would like to move but my husband and I can't begin to afford to. So I can understand people's frustration and I would not say that my state's economy is in good shape (especially since our insurance rates are going up exponentially).
But third, this is something personal that no one seems to be addressing. If the worst happens in November, how are people planning to cope? We are considering moving to the UK, which is where my husband is from, but I don't want to go. I'm 74 years old and I do not want to start over in my old age. And yet the thought of living in this country with Project 2025 looming and a senile mafia boss in control is unbearable. What are all of you planning to do?
I doubt there's any way to control housing costs with Republicans in a majority in Congress. Here in Atlanta, 3 private equity firms own something like 19,000 rental homes.
https://news.gsu.edu/2024/02/26/researchers-find-three-companies-own-more-than-19000-rental-houses-in-metro-atlanta/
My understanding is that it's a much worse situation in California. I thought I read somewhere that this problem was being looked at by Newsom and company, but I may be mistaken.
This is probably a pretty terrible time to buy a home. I've bought a couple over the years, and I wouldn't try to buy now. There's definitely a bubble, some of it fueled by industry practice that is overdue for a legislative reckoning.
As for what I'll do if Trump wins? It's sort of too horrible to contemplate. As an older white male, you'd think I'd be just fine, but none of us will be, and how can I be fine if more than half the country is suffering?
Honestly, if I had to go off the grid to fight that regime, I probably would.
There are currently 3 bills for the California Legislature to consider on private equity buying houses.
Vickie, are these pro, con, or something else?
Con
I'm glad to hear that. I don't expect them to pass now but maybe eventually.
Charles,
One of the things our legislature has done to try to bring supply up and prices down is change zoning so that there are no longer any single-family-home neighborhoods. From my point of view this is a disaster. Subdividing lots devastates community, increases noise and traffic, and strains water and electricity supplies. My fix for the problem is unpopular and will never be implemented: raise taxes and end deductions so that house flipping and short-term rentals are unattractive. This would have to be done largely at the federal level although some things regarding Air B&B and other short-term rentals could be handled locally. Of course reducing inequality, which also has to be done at the federal level, would change everything. But no one listens to me.
When you say off the grid, do you mean leaving the country or literally going off the grid and underground?
I mean underground, depending on how bad things get.
I don't see across the board rezoning like that as a good idea. Locals need some kind of control. In Atlanta, that kind of zoning has worked pretty well, but it has issues. The urban neighborhood I live in is fairly upscale, but there are lots of apartment complexes around here, too. McMansions, old Victorian and Edwardian homes, and apartment complexes. An interesting mix.
I think a way to cut out house flipping would be great, but I am not knowledgeable enough in that area to understand what the best solutions would be.
I really hope it doesn't come to that, for all our sakes.
And yes, locals need control. There are a few things we can do, such as regulate the amount of setback that's required in front of a house, but the basics are set by the state. And BTW, in California that's a Democratic legislature! Shame on them.
I don't even know what "go underground" or off the grid means. Resisting can't involve hurting people, so I don't know what the options are. People talk about moving to other countries, but that's harder than is advertised.
It is very difficult to leave. Some people have managed it already, like my friends who moved to Mexico, but it's a huge undertaking and impossible for some destinations. As far as "underground" is concerned, I would think about what people did during WW II. There are also specific issues that can be addressed, but I won't mention them here. They don't involve hurting anyone though.
The big elephant in the room with housing costs is that it's a darn-if-you-do-darn-if-you-don't situation, politically speaking. The problem is that lower home values would devastate the retirement plans for gazillions of people. Politicians have, for generations, told people that home ownership is the ideal investment and to make home ownership a cornerstone of their retirement plans. Home ownership is not just about having a place to live in retirement, but also about financial security through refinancing, HELOCs, and reverse mortgages.
Politicians of both parties have no choice but to keep housing values stable or rising. But housing values are just the flip side of housing cost.
You've nailed it, Kevin. And for the last 20 years housing has been a business rather than about shelter. Once interest rates started to fall it was all over for everyone but the flippers. And now we're stuck. I don't know how we're going to get out of this.
I am a 72 yr old widow from England and considered looking into going back. Finances are scary for me as I have only one SS check and a little savings, so not sure if I can afford it. (And who knows what will happen w/SS under P25?). The other thing is my five children and 14 grandkids. We should NOT be in the position of thinking of fleeing!
Neita,
Yikes! I completely agree. We should not have to become refugees. I am writing voter postcards almost every day. I hope that helps but who knows? Please keep in touch. We may both end up in the UK.
I live in Los Angeles as well, and am a native here, and have bought/sold homes 3 times here. To take CA retail home prices and from that throw “cold water” on the clearly good economic news that comes out is the absolute *worst* (and incorrect) conclusion to reach! It’s like taking CA gas prices and thinking the rest of the US is just as bad!
Given that our 3 sons now live outside CA, and we keep our eye on home prices in their areas (Portland OR, Vancouver WA, and Boulder CO), I see the high price of CA RE on a regular basis. We are, and have been, SO out of line with the rest of the country.
Unless you’re talking about Bel Air, Palisades, Brentwood, etc., I think your estimation is a bit exaggerated, ie little homes at $2M. Don’t get me wrong! Prices here are stupid, but I don’t believe they’re quite as bad as you suggest. Example: we live just north of the San Fernando Valley in LA County, and our 1707 sq ft home is now valued at a little under $1.1M. Would we actually *get* that on the market? I doubt it.
Hi, Larry,
Native Angeleno here too!! (Waving!)
I get what you're saying. But check this out: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4149-La-Salle-Ave-Culver-City-CA-90232/20432185_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare. There are similar houses in my old neighborhood of Woodland Hills, which is not a fancy area. Here in the Conejo Valley it's a bit better but not by much, and if you're looking in Westlake or Agoura it's comparable. As I said, I've never seen anything like this.
We live in Agoura Hills. We bought about 18 years ago for $707K, and after a “market correction”, we’d probably be able to sell reasonably easily for $985K or so. A home in our neighborhood, around 2200 square ft just sold for $1.299M and it wasn’t anything particularly special, ie no outdoor kitchen/dining area, pool, water feature, etc.
OMG, we're neighbors! I live in Simi Valley. We used to live in Agoura backing to Mulholland Highway. (Never should have sold that house.) But the figures you're citing don't surprise me at all. Our house value has doubled in eleven years!
I would like to see an article like that too. I'm convinced that all-cash buyers like private equity are making the problem much worse. I suspect rich foreigners are contributing as well. I don't think there's that much of a shortage either. The problem is one of affordability and holding back houses to rent by the day or week. Now that it's so difficult to make money by working for other people, a lot of people have turned to renting out houses and apartments for parties and vacationers. It's really hurting people who want to buy and rent.
I've already mentioned my solutions for fixing house prices. I'll add to that my solutions for making jobs and incomes better: bring jobs back to the US. No outsourcing, and let's make our own stuff here in the US. Tax policy can help there. Also better support for unions, and limits on CEO compensation and stock buybacks. And trust-busting. Amazon and Wal-Mart need to be broken up.
That's another two cents' worth that no one will listen to. 😀
Sorry, I wasn’t listening. What did you say? Just kidding, you are so right.
🤣🤣
It’s both and. There really is a housing shortage, inadequate building relative to the trajectory of the population growth, and things like LLCs buying houses. Zoning and building density are also problems, as is poor infrastructure that privileges cars above all else.
The extreme movement of the federal courts to "no more than a political arm of the GOP" was largely empowered by Moscow Mitch's blockade on Obama's appointments, and then changing the rules to allow T-Rump to stack the courts.
Word is that Senate GOP has just announced a similar blockade in hopes of stacking openings for after the election. The country has already had a taste of this tactic, and should, more than any other aspect, drive voters to clear the senate, house, and White House of GOP this fall. Otherwise, we will see the radical, activist courts that are currently letting Trump skate on crimes while stripping away rights of the rest of the nation, become vastly more powerful.
Thanks for talking about the elections in Europe. I just happened to see a post yesterday that linked to the results. These elections in Europe are important, and it’s like the corporate media doesn’t know anything about it.
I feel like many Americans aren’t interested in global news (unless it’s a war or a gossip piece),
That’s probably true. However, with all that’s going on in the US and the world, the news that our strongest allies may also be sliding towards the “right” or fascism again is very alarming. We need all the help we can get in the months and years ahead. It must be especially terrifying for Ukraine.
I live in France also, and have been a resident for five years. I appreciate Paris and Prosperity’s comment and agree with the premise. Three things worth considering on what’s going on in France:
1) In spite of the NYTime’s typical sensational reporting, the National Rally party still got just 32% of the vote in France. Not ~40% like the MAGAts in the US. Given that France has a multi-party parliamentary system rather than a two-party system like the US, the sane people are still in charge for the time being.
2) The National Rally party is not as far-right as the Republican Party in the US; that according to political scientist research (easy to look up). Even they advocate for labor protections, for example. And, notably, they do not advocate for throwing out national health care, family support (child/day care, family leave when having a child, etc.), or affordable education. Immigration is a big issue here, too, but on that point, at least, I get it. Read Nicholas Kristoff’s piece in today’s NYT (one of the few worthwhile articles there) about Biden’s recent immigration about-face. That’s a good summation of what the EU is dealing with.
3) Say what you like about Macron, for better or for worse, but the bottom line is, I truly believe he has the best interests of France at heart, and that is, as much as any political calculation, why he’s called for a snap parliamentary election. He’s had a tough time over his first two years having to work on passing legislation with a coalition of parties in Parliament, so I can understand that he’s feeling like, “OK, let the people decide going forward in the next three years of my presidency.” At least then whatever the result is will force those who are elected to work on legislating rather than sinking into resentment and bomb-throwing like Marjorie Three Toes, as a comparison. At the end of the day, France is still a functioning democracy.
I remain optimistic for the EU experiment—and the American democracy experiment, too.
Now, go out and vote.
thanks for this important evaluation Jay. I feel like there’s a piece missing that I wanted to bring up and it could be a little touchy. I am a Democrat… Definitely a progressive and most of the people, in my sphere of influence are as well. What I am noticing is, whether people are in their 70s and 80s or in their 20s… And I interact with a lot of people… Most of the ones I know are relatively happy with Biden but there is a silence going on regarding the links to aipac, and not coming down hard enough on Netanyahu. I have a feeling that most of the people who are older are going to vote for Biden… But if we don’t pay attention to the youth, who are disgusted by the genocide against the Palestinians… Biden may not be able to get their votes and they are a pretty important voting population.
In the past, we have discounted the youth vote… But with an attack on reproductive rights, LGBTQ, and now, the Palestinians… I’m really concerned that that voting block will be lost because of the silence regarding Netenyahu.
Just to clarify Hamas is a terrorist organization and what they did on October 7 was horrible… A response needed to happen… However, the displacement and deaths of so many Palestinians… Is unacceptable. The world can see that this is really about a land grab.
Again, I think this issue needs to be addressed… Even if it gets Extremist Zionists unhappy.
modi does not lead any "democracy." India consistently harasses and kills Muslims, and ravages women.
I would just add that other than France, the projected right wing wins in the rest of Europe were very small. And hopefully Macron pulls off his snap election. But I think your analysis about voter behavior is spot on and helpful in thinking about the US election and what we can do.
That chart makes me want to scream. How can people possibly believe the economy was better under trump... brain damage from covid? People are traveling more than ever before, and that ain't cheap. The markets are soaring, but yeah, that's only great for the already wealthy. I do worry about private firms owning so much housing.
I like the wording and message on the sign shown on the intro photograph. Democrats need to use that, but also mention who we all will get if voters sit out the top of the ticket.
As for Jay’s thoughts on the SC -
“So far, however, the Biden Campaign has not leaned harder on the question of the Court’s corruption and the dire need for reform, instead being satisfied with attacking horrific decisions like Dobbs. Perhaps we will see more calls from the Biden Campaign for voter rejection of the extremist Court as Election Day nears.”
I’m hoping those gloves come off and the corruption and bias of the SC is directly addressed by the Biden campaign, but I’m guessing they’re waiting until after the end of the current session on or slightly after June 30. No need to give Alito, Thomas and Roberts more cause to rewrite what is probably already a draft of a disastrous decision and make it even more devastating. Then again the six conservative injustices like using the shadow docket as their personal pulpit.