A few niggles from a retired surety lawyer. The surety isn't a "lender." It is a guarantor. Getting a loan is a different kettle of fish. If he finds a surety dumb enough to write a bond, it will be for the full amount of the judgment plus the additional %and the plaintiffs will be able to walk away with the money if he loses the appeal. Or even wins one only as to reduced amount.
The surety will be protected by both common law right of indemnity and a years-perfected indemnity agreement--the latter will undoubtedly provide for attorney fees to the prevailing party (in the fight between trump and surety) and interest on the penal sum from the date it is paid, at whatever the legal rate is in NY. The PREMIUM is non-refundable, will vary with the risk of recovery involved, and will depend on what is filed with the state. The surety can insist on as much collateral as it wants to, from zip to 100%. It can tie up every asset he owns. In trump's case, event the most MAGAT surety CEO (if such exists) is going to be very careful about sewing him up tight.
Whether he HAS collateral a surety would want is another question. Sureties aren't happy being second or lower on a deed of trust. And they would be cautious about taking a DOT on some property owned by a subsidiary of Trump Org who could separately file BKO without endangering the whole enterprise.
The surety will have to be licensed in the state. It can't be some off shore outfit.
For an actual loan, he will have to pay interest at whatever rate the lender wants, subject only to usury laws of the location of the lender. Who knows what that might be. Deutsch Bank, for example, could insist he pay them the amount he cheated them out of by his false valuations (the interest they lost by having the wrong info) before agreeing to make a loan. So he'd get hit by the amount twice--from the Bank AND in the judgment.
One possibility would be to take one of his really wealthy buddies as a cosigner on either loan or bond. I'm not sure a PAC could do it for the same reasons a PAC can't just put up the money. I suspect the IRS would treat amounts paid by a Just Buddy co-signor as a gift, and so he'd have to pay tax on it when the "donor" pays the surety or lender.
I’m guessing that nearly all of his properties are mortgaged to the hilt, with very little available equity.
I wonder if the holders of his many current loans will consider calling them based on the proven fraud and the actual appraisal value of the subject properties? That would likely trigger a death spiral as folks line up to get paid before the assets run dry.
Depends on how many construction contractor owners and executives of the companies there are--that is the major thrust of surety, although there are a bazillion types of other bonds. Of course a lot of small contractors who need a bond to get a license don't actually know either. Their agent just says "you need this, sign here" and since it is an insurance agent they think it is insurance as usually understood. It comes as a shock when we tell them the thing they signed promised to pay the surety back.
No one who doesn't need a bond to do business really ever thinks about sureties, at least until they realize they have a claim on someone's bond.
I happenstanced on being involved in surety. First good job offer I got after leaving my job at the court of appeals. I had to go home and look up surety after the first interview. I guess the law firm didn't EXPECT me to understand surety at the first go round. Sadly, this was long before smartphones, so I couldn't just excuse my self to check in the bathroom.
I believe that would also include contractors who need a bond to bid on a public project. They understand that how their assets are structured affects the cost of the bond, but more than that, they view the bond as simply a cost of doing business. Thank you for your obviously knowledgeable input.
Thanks for all the details in your post. On the ABA website, there is an article about appeal bonds and says that there are only 2 surety issuers who accept real estate as collateral. Also, if those surety issuers are licensed in NY then they may not be available to Trump because of the stipulation in the court order.
I very much doubt that only 2 sureties who will accept real estate as collateral. It is probably less taken for appeal bonds than other types, because the appeal bond decision is on-off: win or lose appeal. If the appeal looks shaky I can see not bothering with real estate. But if that is excluded, trump doesn't have a whole lot of other collateral to offer. The whole "stock in Truth Social" thing isn't likely to happen in 30 days.
I've pondered the bit about "chartered lenders." I suspect that it involves more than just having a license. Big sureties have licenses in every state. But they are domiciled or originally incorporated in just one.
Sureties are licensed via the Insurance Commissioner of each state, though they don't provide insurance as most people understand it. Instead of protecting the guy who takes out "the policy" they protect OTHER people from the wrongdoing of the guy who gets the bond (the "principal") Wrongdoing includes failure to pay. They are most common for construction contracts but there are a bazillion types of "miscellaneous bonds" including appeal bonds.
Frankly, since Donald has been essentially screwing everyone (i.e. contractors, subcontractors, lawyers, financial entities, etc.) but the Mob for decades in NY, I'm not sure ANY entity who has 1/2 a functioning collective brain cell would be very willing to risk covering him for the cost of a bottle of water.
While I understand that Trump and Co. now must play "Mother, may I" with both the Independent Monitor (the Hon. Barbara Jones) as well as a yet-to-be-determined Independent Director of Compliance before they can essentially wipe their behinds, I still have some doubts.
He isn't in a very good place, and I, among a few others are happy as can be. I keep mentioning to his supporters that none of this is being done TO him. It's being done BECASUSE of his actions and words.
Fantastic info. Serious question: Does Trump even have lawyers who can parse all this kind of information? The best lawyer in his orbit seems to be Ashleigh Merchant, and she's a criminal lawyer, for one thing, and is defending Michael Roman, for another. I would think someone who knows this side of the law well would want nothing to do with Trump.
This is Big Law A Team stuff that would be handled by the outfit willing to consider the credit. Assuming that Trump wanted to have even a vague notion of what he would be signing on to, he’d need the same level of expertise, but could probably get it from a boutique. The Law Offices of My Cousin Vinny™️ probably doesn’t have new client credit criteria, but the A Team guys sure as hell do.
I've been trying to figure out the difference between licensed and chartered. I think that chartered means NY is their home state. Out of state banks can usually operate in a state by getting a license. aka registration. Turns out chartered is complicated and google returns a lot of items no related to that particular question.
My antiquated understanding is that is right. But not every registered foreign bank is automatically good-to-go for surety work; permitted financial activities are limited to those extended in the certification. Federally chartered banks, again based on very rusty understanding, aren't subject to state examination/registration requirements, at least for core banking activities. But, curiouser and curiouser does the order operate to preclude the defendants from obtaining a bond from a New York chartered or registered in New York as falling under the three year prohibition?
ORDERED that defendants DonaldTrump, the DonaldJ. Trump Revocable Trust, the Trump Organization, Inc., Trump Organization LLC, DJT Holdings LLC, DJT Holdings Managing Member, Trump Endeavor 12 LLC, 401 North Wabash Venture LLC, Trump Old Post Office LLC, 40 Wall Street LLC, are hereby enjoined from applying for loans from any financial institution chartered by or registered with the NewYork Department of Financial Services for a period of three years.
Horseback guess—it wouldn't apply to the acceptability of the surety bond, but reasonably should extend to any agreement the defendants enter into with the surety to provide comfort that they will be able to get repaid promptly by having to pay out on the surety. Continuing that thought, the surety would want a guarantee from an out-of-state financial institution (but of New York capital markets scale) in lieu of a reimbursement agreement with Trump. Goodie, another player!
wow. I didn't see that 'registered" bit. Far as I can tell, "chartered in New York" is mainly used to distinguish State from Federally chartered bank. Both need to be registered/licensed. Judge E probably correctly must have felt he couldn't rule on Federal chartered stuff--but that 'registered" could be a big deal, indirectly.
Surety bonds are issued by insurance companies, not banks. Query whether that counts as a financial institution and whether a loan of credit (which is what a guaranty is at base) is the kind of loan in the order.
Technical details, but after Engoron's ruling tRump can't go to any bank chartered in NY for a loan, but could he work with an in-state guarantor? Can he put up NY properties controlled by tRump Org as collateral?
No matter how much Tucker Carlson groveled and debased himself, if Putin is being realistic about tRump's re-election chances, he knows funding tRump has a 50% chance - or less - of scoring Russia a quid pro quo.
My guess is that we will see overtures to the Saudis very soon. MBS can better afford funding tRump than Putin can, both politically and financially, if tRump loses his reelection bid.
I doubt the court would take anything from a non-licensed "guarantor" because that is really surety and those have to be licensed (though not home-based) in the state. The court wants cash or an immediate source of cash: a surety can provide it (assuming they have the reserves needed to get the license); a guarantor can welsh and have to be sued which is the last thing the court wants. Any surety company big enough to write this bond who "welshes" would find itself in receivership right smartly. A lender obviously provides the cash; it is important to note that such cash does NOT earn interest. Interest on the loan is trump's responsibility.
I don't think the judgment prevents him from putting up collateral that is located in NY for either a surety bond (at least a surety domiciled outside NY) or a lender domiciled outside NY. The question is: is this collateral acceptable, ie easily gettable if the surety or lender needs to be paid back.
Isn’t Putin under sanctions, along with many (hopefully most) of his oligarch buddies? I would think/hope that taking funds from someone under sanction would be at least frowned upon and hopefully illegal.
Again, I'm outside my lane because I'm not a commercial lawyer, but in the areas in which I was most familiar a collateral agreement is just that—it's collateral to some other agreement, not a standalone. So how to characterize that agreement. If it is a re-imbursement agreement does that mean it is not [also] a loan?
Not to mention that it is very doubtful that Trump has any property free of SOMEONE already in a first lien position. Attornment and subordination agreement, anyone? Sure, we finance guys have tricks for anything, but only assuming that the client blows past the Danger Will Robinson™️ signs we wave in their face. Or fear of bank examiners. Or reputational risk, including share price sentiment (being always mindful whether one's vested by unexercised stock options remain in the money.
And the idea of liquidating an equity interest in commercial real estate secured, probably, by a claim on rents within the time available is too implausible even to be adapted into a Marvel flyer.
The surety requires an indemnity agreement, with or without collateral. Those have been honed over time to be very pro surety, needless to say. Any collateral secures performance of the indemnity agreement.
I didn't have to actually go after anyone for the indemnity agreement; we had a specialized collections guy for that, or hired outside counsel. I do have war stories galore at some of the shenanigans folks used to avoid the indemnity agreement when there was no collateral.
When (or if, as you put it) tRump loses his reelection bid, why would either MBS or Putin want to help bail him out? I can't imagine that tfg's "friendship" with MBS is anything more than opportunism on the part of MBS (a just-in-case friendship).
I agree completely - every tRump relationship is entirely transactional. If/when his reelection bid fails, and the prosecutions against him succeed, he'll have little to offer anybody. He'll be relegated to hawking trinkets on late-night TV - I don't know, say, over-priced gold lame sneakers mad in China.
His theft of government documents to sell didn't work out as he'd hoped, except maybe the reason he claims to have $400 million cash on hand has something to do with a missing binder full of kopmpromat on Russian election interference.
At this point it looks to me like tRump is aging like listeria-infected milk
My guess is that the Saudis could buy a Trump property and give him the option to repurchase it at a later date for a small premium. That gives Trump cash for the appeal bond.
I dunno - they absolutely COULD do something like that - the PIF is essentially bottomless. MBS, however, is no one's fool, and he could be coming around to the idea that cheetolini is damaged goods on a scale that precludes him from doing the Saudis any good. He will cut his losses without thinking twice (as will Putin).
Isn't the ultimate question is who wants to take the credit risk on the surety bond? I mean Brand Name Big Bucks Surety could insure/reinsure with a Berkshire-Hathaway grade outfit. It piles credit decision upon credit decision if so single Warren Buffet wants all of it and the whole deal has to be syndicated.
In your experience, is the size of this precedented?
And am I right (mere California lawyer that I am, and a deal guy to boot) that Ms Jones can serve a notice of enforcement and then Trump is at the mercy of the Sheriff after about 20 days if he hasn't gotten a discretionary stay pending appeal from the judge that he has done so much to endear himself to?
I'm pretty sure re-insurers have to be licensed also in the state. I was very rarely involved with reinsurance other than noting if we had it (and involvement long ago in an SBA guaranteed small contractor program). For a bond this size a reinsurance treaty no doubt kicks in. I suspect there are bonds that big, though I don't know about appeal bonds. But there are certainly big construction contracts that get written; my company didn't write anything this big. We tapped out at a few million. The biggest claim I handled involved two 8 million dollar projects (two bonds, same principal).
Trump is apparently at the mercy of the Sheriff right now, unless he gets that bond. The automatic stay does not go into effect until BOTH bond and notice of appeal are in place. That's NY; not sure how it works elsewhere. I wasn't on the underwriting side, except insofar as I had to interact with them if claim came up.
Even if there is precedent for this size appeal bond, I'm not at ALL sure there have been many appeal bonds requested where FRAUD damages are the things being appealed. I know I would choke with laughter if someone asked me if we should write such a bond without full collateral. Right, just trust the integrity of the principal. Uh Huh.
I'm not sure if a Letter of Credit to the Court would work. It doesn't look like it. It might work as collateral for the surety, if the bank was big enough to honor it. That just kicks the problems of collateral down the line.
Makes me wish I were still in the game (or at least close enough that I could follow the inside-baseball gossip before it became news). But then I remember my dinners consisting of scrounging the leftover pastry when I began feeling faint at 3 am, and the desire evaporates.
I retired in early 2010. Gotta tell you that the 2008 recession kept me busy late into the 3 AM time. I was doing mostly California Motor Vehicle bonds at that point--getting too creaky for the travel needed for performance/payment bonds. The collapse of the California motor vehicle biz started about a year before we were officially in a recession. Many war stories on THAT one, too.
This. The ones who OWN that money have been known to take bone saws to folks who annoy them. He is managing $2BN in investments, and profiting from fees.
Yeah. If he does get it from some foreign power, do you think that Extremes might cast a baleful look at the assertion that presidents can't be dinged for conflicts of interest?
OK, the folks whose businesses the fund is supposed to invest in would be pissed. Suddenly after all the applications they are told "sorry, we are using the money to cover my father in law's ass."
Wouldn’t using “investment” funds for something like this be pretty equivalent to a pyramid scheme? Not actually investing the money at all. Seems a big no-no unless the “fund” is unregistered and actually just a slush-fund/bribe (or payment for classified information received).
You may be sure that the legal paperwork is in order. And the source of that $2BN is the Saudi PIF (sovereign investment fund) - it belongs to the Saudi royal family. It would be safer to steal from the Mob than to screw with their money.
I love your brilliant, logical mind, Jay. I was wondering if the Saudis or Russia would come to his rescue... havent they invested in him enough? I'm sure they are enjoying the shit show in America. I continually am amazed at how America got to this place, with a monster like Trump who has such a cultish grip on a section of our population. I think, at least for me, he needs to be in jail and let us try to heal from the nightmare. Thanks for your always clear explanations!
Oh, you mean Ronnie “at whose name every head shall bow and every knee shall bend”? I was a college student in California during that guy’s governorship- don’t talk to me about “St. Ronnie” 🤬
Yup I was at UCLA and got to pay tuition where as it was free before. He told the UC if they needed money, just sell the books in the library. The books are the University along with the professors . Nothing else is needed.
Rise in homelessness, rise in corporate and billionaire influence on politics, rise in income inequality, lowering of US manufacturing base, lowering of living standards for all but those millionaires, etc.
Absolutely Reagan is responsible for the homeless epidemic. It started with his policies in his term and has gotten progressively worse. Now we have private equity firms using housing like commodities. We need legislation to make this illegal.
We only had a small population of alcoholic around skid row but RR closed the mental institutions and dumped them all on the streets. I remember the school buses coming into Santa Monica and the next day we had homeless. Then the Vietnam Vets added to that group with PDST and no facilities.
They called it “mainstreaming” and some of it *might* have worked with a well-considered and well-funded plan for those who were able to make the transition.
They had basically nothing. They threw everyone into the ocean and said “The land is that way; sure hope you can swim.” Some headed toward the beach, but crashed on rocks. Some made it to the beach but died of exhaustion. Some very few managed to escape/survive; some very few of them perhaps 🤔 thrived. The vast majority of them swam in circles until they drowned or struck out in the wrong direction and were eaten by sharks.
The Russians are a possibility but Jared's MBS fund is, for me, much more likely a funding source. There are sanctions on the Russians but they can funnel the money thru Deutsche Banks private investment funds that have funded Trump in the past (remember "We have all the funding we need from Russia...").
Susan reading this validated every opinion thought and feeling reading Jay's brilliant piece. I have hope that Alvin Bragg will throw the book at him and put him in jail for the maximum 4 years and no parole. Time for the curtain to come down already!
And if there is gonna be an uprising then let it be when he is in jail and the rest of the cult get thrown in jail w him
Civil penalties are the icing on the criminal-conviction cake...I want to see him writing checks to cover settlements whilst clothed in an orange jump-suit.
I want the world's first prison cam to be permanently focused on the steel table where he plays poker for bags of ramen soup. In fact, that should be part of a future court order to prevent him from cheating.
Prison is the one place you do NOT want to be caught cheating. Dead is the least horrible thing that would happen, and I'm pretty sure he would be aware of that - all the mobsters he knows and all.
Well, given that he's who he is, I wouldn't be surprised he will get home arrest if he ever really gets jail time. Make him bunk in over at Hillary and Bill's!
One of my friends is convinced that neither he, nor ANY other POTUS will ever do one minute behind bars. He's probably right, but that doesn't stop me from hoping.
I read this morning that in the Go-Fund-Me created to pay off his fines, something like perhaps 20,000+ was raised as of yesterday. So, either Joe Blow Six-Pack is waiting to get his paycheck at the beginning of the month to dig in and come up with it, or people are tapped out, at least for paying these fines. I mean, it's not like Trump is a like-able guy. He is an a--hole! A--holes who are top might get people's money, those who look like losers get less.
A separate substack thread mentioned this go fund me, and that it explicitly violates the terms of service. A bunch of folks were reporting it to go fund me. Should be interesting to see if they shut it down.
I think the guy's pair were signed by Trump. I think those are going on the display case of Trump memorabilia in the guy's house. It reminds me of my Nazi great-uncle telling me there was something of Hitlers that the family in East Germany had. I told him, "I don't want to hear about it." Fortunately that great uncle is long gone, and I don't have any family here in the US that is for Trump.
He also got booed off the stage in Philly (I think it was Philly) for hawking these things. He's completely insane. That's really the scariest thing about him, even more than the awfulness.
China. Where else. I wonder if Trump will cough up the money from his secret Chinese Bank Account that they discovered awhile back? He's dealt with them a lot despite his projecting this on Biden.
Shouldn’t he (Trump) be under constant scrutiny by the Feds as a possible foreign asset? Regardless if he’s POTUS, a former POTUS or a potential future POTUS this is a national security issue. It still baffles me how he was able to get away with his years of influence peddling before his first run.
This has been the fight for many years now. There was certainly ample evidence to suggest that he was colluding with the Russians and that they had kompromat on him, but not enough for Mueller to recommend charging him with conspiracy. This battle is still ongoing, with multiple players, including former AG Barr and Rudy Giuliani.
Barr's probably too slippery to get anywhere with, but Rudy's on the hook for 9 figures - which he does not have, or anything like it. At this point, he can be gotten to, I believe. He was really enjoying his life before he got mixed up with the orange thingy, and now he is not.
It bugs me to no end how the nation has essentially discarded the findings of Robert Mueller. The report stated that Russia interfered with the 2016 election "in sweeping and systematic fashion" and identified a massive web of connections with Trump associates. But because of a massive obfuscation effort by Trump associates, including false testimony, deleted communications and such, no action was taken on this report.
Garland, among many other weak-kneed responses he has had towards Trump, could have taken further action on this report, but instead he mothballed it.
He should be fired today and replaced with someone with the tenacity of Lina Khan.
The Mueller findings are out of the public eye, but DOJ and FBI are watching for Russian activity like never before. A couple days ago Wray reported at the Munich Security Conference that FBI had recently dug out a tick that Fancy Bear had installed on routers to create a botnet (https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/02/doj-turns-tables-on-russian-hackers-uses-their-malware-to-wipe-out-botnet/). I find it interesting that Wray made this public at this time. I suspect we're going to see more of this as the election nears.
Thanks. A lot of routers are using a pretty old XML-based authentication protocol (SAML) that requires extreme monitoring diligence. The threat vectors come from a lot places, though, including the Chinese government. But you're right, the threats will start multiplying this year.
In this case, I suspect that Department of the Treasury (or is it the Secret Service?) is monitoring all cash flows linked to Russia as a matter of routine, which would likely make it much easier to have solid evidence.
Forewarned is forearmed and I thank you for the final section of this report. Yes, Trump will access his overseas autocrats, tap his children, and his MAGA base for cash infusion and likely he’ll get what he asks for. BUT, with the press and public watching like never before maybe 🤔 he will finally be caught out for the financial fraud that he has always been. Cross fingers and toes the light comes on for his base to finally see him for the charlatan that he always has been.
If Trump doesn't loot the RNC directly, he'll use it to cut off funds to any Republicans who offend him besides looking at opportunities for kickbacks like he did with the Presidential Pardons.
Oh, the party's just a subsidiary of Trump Org now - lock, stock, and barrel. All you need to know you saw when the GQP insisted on a border deal, and then killed it when they got it because himself wants the issue for his campaign.
That’s seems to be true. Trump Org doesn’t need to operate in New York when they have an entire country full of MAGA to manipulate with the help of the RNC.
I love your use of the term “wrecking balls“ because nothing means more to Trump than his reputation. The fact that he’s now selling fake gold-plated sneakers with his name on them tells us how bad things are for him at the moment. May they only get worse.
He will take any foreign help offered and will make promises to make good if he's president. In Putin's case, just the chaos that Trump brings to the American political landscape is well worth the investment. Expect some land deal(s) for way over appraised value this year as Putin and co. get the cash to him.
Many people are saying - only the best people, of course - that he'll give to Russia the portion of Alaska that you can see Russia from. Or maybe all of Alaska if he really gets desperate.
I listened to a snippet from one of his speeches (one of the speech showing mental deterioration) and at the end he said, very clearly and cogently, “When I get elected, you’ll all get a new house and a new car.”
I had to watch it 3 times before I could believe it.
It depends on how the money came through. There are certain oligarchs whose assets are frozen and who couldn’t make the loan. But it’s still considered a commercial loan that has to be repaid, rather than a gift or income. So it’s unclear what would be allowed.
This could get so interesting. There are options for loans that are never paid back or collateralized, not paid back and the collateral never taken. Or, as happened in 2008, Dmitry Rybolovlev just way overpaid for Trump’s palm beach property.
" As Richard Pildes, a professor of constitutional law at NYU Law School, noted in response to an inquiry from Politico, “Campaign funds cannot be used for that purpose regardless of whether the PAC is the decision-maker.”
Chapter 11 is an option for Trump. Solvency doesn't preclude it. While the defamation judgment is most likely not subject to discharge, collection would nevertheless be stayed by the filing. As for New York's recent judgment, it seems doubtful that Section 523 of the Bankruptcy Code would except it from discharge. The option is still unappealing because Trump would have to testify under oath about his financial condition and taking the 5th during the testimony would probably set him up for a Chapter 11 trustee who would oust him from possession and be a thorn in his side. Also, Trump would have to come up with a sizeable retainer to get any competent bankruptcy lawyer to take his case.
Schadenfreude is what I'm feeling whenever someone talks about details that will make Trump's life mentally distracting and difficult, just as he has made it difficult for the rest of us to enjoy our lives with the threat of Trump hanging over us. A sort of doomsday feeling.
I read from a couple of posts Elon Musk had visited trump after the judgment from Engoron was announced. I cannot find any information concerning this however. Do you know if this is true?
The ElonJet Mastodon account is helpful here. His Jet flew from Austin into West Palm Beach 2 days ago, and departed 18 hours ago back to Austin. Of course we don't know what Musk did in Palm Beach, or whether he even was on board those flights, but the inference is strong.
Bingo! Musk gives Dementia J. T. a personal loan for some but not all of the amount, using some of Dementia’s stock in the merged Truth Social - Digital World Acquisition Corp. formed from the SPAC as collateral. Simple interest only, one payment due annually, no principal due for ten years. In about one year, Truth Social hires or contracts Musk as a social network media consultant under a ten year employment contract, pay is in stock options to Truth Social shares equal to the amount of the annual loan payment plus ten percent of the loan amount. It’s up to Musk if he wants to exercise the options. If the shares go up, Musk can make a profit by exercising and selling. If they go down, no big deal, it’s only chump change to Elon.
This piece has been updated with some helpful comments from bankrupty and surety specialists below. Thanks for the clarifications!
A few niggles from a retired surety lawyer. The surety isn't a "lender." It is a guarantor. Getting a loan is a different kettle of fish. If he finds a surety dumb enough to write a bond, it will be for the full amount of the judgment plus the additional %and the plaintiffs will be able to walk away with the money if he loses the appeal. Or even wins one only as to reduced amount.
The surety will be protected by both common law right of indemnity and a years-perfected indemnity agreement--the latter will undoubtedly provide for attorney fees to the prevailing party (in the fight between trump and surety) and interest on the penal sum from the date it is paid, at whatever the legal rate is in NY. The PREMIUM is non-refundable, will vary with the risk of recovery involved, and will depend on what is filed with the state. The surety can insist on as much collateral as it wants to, from zip to 100%. It can tie up every asset he owns. In trump's case, event the most MAGAT surety CEO (if such exists) is going to be very careful about sewing him up tight.
Whether he HAS collateral a surety would want is another question. Sureties aren't happy being second or lower on a deed of trust. And they would be cautious about taking a DOT on some property owned by a subsidiary of Trump Org who could separately file BKO without endangering the whole enterprise.
The surety will have to be licensed in the state. It can't be some off shore outfit.
For an actual loan, he will have to pay interest at whatever rate the lender wants, subject only to usury laws of the location of the lender. Who knows what that might be. Deutsch Bank, for example, could insist he pay them the amount he cheated them out of by his false valuations (the interest they lost by having the wrong info) before agreeing to make a loan. So he'd get hit by the amount twice--from the Bank AND in the judgment.
One possibility would be to take one of his really wealthy buddies as a cosigner on either loan or bond. I'm not sure a PAC could do it for the same reasons a PAC can't just put up the money. I suspect the IRS would treat amounts paid by a Just Buddy co-signor as a gift, and so he'd have to pay tax on it when the "donor" pays the surety or lender.
He's not in a very good place here.
Thanks for the clarification. I’m not specifically versed in the surety business so this is helpful.
you and about 98% of the population. Sadly. But a lot are learning fast.
Thank you for the details. Very helpful.
I’m guessing that nearly all of his properties are mortgaged to the hilt, with very little available equity.
I wonder if the holders of his many current loans will consider calling them based on the proven fraud and the actual appraisal value of the subject properties? That would likely trigger a death spiral as folks line up to get paid before the assets run dry.
Mighty happy thought to ruminate on. . 😁
Thank you, Susan!
I believe your estimate may be low. 99.9%?
Depends on how many construction contractor owners and executives of the companies there are--that is the major thrust of surety, although there are a bazillion types of other bonds. Of course a lot of small contractors who need a bond to get a license don't actually know either. Their agent just says "you need this, sign here" and since it is an insurance agent they think it is insurance as usually understood. It comes as a shock when we tell them the thing they signed promised to pay the surety back.
No one who doesn't need a bond to do business really ever thinks about sureties, at least until they realize they have a claim on someone's bond.
I happenstanced on being involved in surety. First good job offer I got after leaving my job at the court of appeals. I had to go home and look up surety after the first interview. I guess the law firm didn't EXPECT me to understand surety at the first go round. Sadly, this was long before smartphones, so I couldn't just excuse my self to check in the bathroom.
I believe that would also include contractors who need a bond to bid on a public project. They understand that how their assets are structured affects the cost of the bond, but more than that, they view the bond as simply a cost of doing business. Thank you for your obviously knowledgeable input.
certainly does. But most of the owners of the bigger guys get indemnity explained to them.
Thank you. This information is incredibly helpful in understanding the financial impact he faces.
Thanks for all the details in your post. On the ABA website, there is an article about appeal bonds and says that there are only 2 surety issuers who accept real estate as collateral. Also, if those surety issuers are licensed in NY then they may not be available to Trump because of the stipulation in the court order.
I very much doubt that only 2 sureties who will accept real estate as collateral. It is probably less taken for appeal bonds than other types, because the appeal bond decision is on-off: win or lose appeal. If the appeal looks shaky I can see not bothering with real estate. But if that is excluded, trump doesn't have a whole lot of other collateral to offer. The whole "stock in Truth Social" thing isn't likely to happen in 30 days.
I've pondered the bit about "chartered lenders." I suspect that it involves more than just having a license. Big sureties have licenses in every state. But they are domiciled or originally incorporated in just one.
Sureties are licensed via the Insurance Commissioner of each state, though they don't provide insurance as most people understand it. Instead of protecting the guy who takes out "the policy" they protect OTHER people from the wrongdoing of the guy who gets the bond (the "principal") Wrongdoing includes failure to pay. They are most common for construction contracts but there are a bazillion types of "miscellaneous bonds" including appeal bonds.
Frankly, since Donald has been essentially screwing everyone (i.e. contractors, subcontractors, lawyers, financial entities, etc.) but the Mob for decades in NY, I'm not sure ANY entity who has 1/2 a functioning collective brain cell would be very willing to risk covering him for the cost of a bottle of water.
While I understand that Trump and Co. now must play "Mother, may I" with both the Independent Monitor (the Hon. Barbara Jones) as well as a yet-to-be-determined Independent Director of Compliance before they can essentially wipe their behinds, I still have some doubts.
A still-to-be determined Director of Compliance had got to hurt big time.
Yay!
He isn't in a very good place, and I, among a few others are happy as can be. I keep mentioning to his supporters that none of this is being done TO him. It's being done BECASUSE of his actions and words.
Fantastic info. Serious question: Does Trump even have lawyers who can parse all this kind of information? The best lawyer in his orbit seems to be Ashleigh Merchant, and she's a criminal lawyer, for one thing, and is defending Michael Roman, for another. I would think someone who knows this side of the law well would want nothing to do with Trump.
This is Big Law A Team stuff that would be handled by the outfit willing to consider the credit. Assuming that Trump wanted to have even a vague notion of what he would be signing on to, he’d need the same level of expertise, but could probably get it from a boutique. The Law Offices of My Cousin Vinny™️ probably doesn’t have new client credit criteria, but the A Team guys sure as hell do.
What he needs is a top APPELLATE lawyer, most of whom will go URP after looking at Judge E's decision. Alina is way out of her league.
What does URP mean?
the sound of an upchuck.
Ha! I thought it was some complicated legal acronym, and Google was no use. Cheers
Upvoting for respecting the Vinny trademark.
Thank you! So helpful.
Q: Aren't banks registered in NY State barred from making loans to Trump?
I've been trying to figure out the difference between licensed and chartered. I think that chartered means NY is their home state. Out of state banks can usually operate in a state by getting a license. aka registration. Turns out chartered is complicated and google returns a lot of items no related to that particular question.
My antiquated understanding is that is right. But not every registered foreign bank is automatically good-to-go for surety work; permitted financial activities are limited to those extended in the certification. Federally chartered banks, again based on very rusty understanding, aren't subject to state examination/registration requirements, at least for core banking activities. But, curiouser and curiouser does the order operate to preclude the defendants from obtaining a bond from a New York chartered or registered in New York as falling under the three year prohibition?
ORDERED that defendants DonaldTrump, the DonaldJ. Trump Revocable Trust, the Trump Organization, Inc., Trump Organization LLC, DJT Holdings LLC, DJT Holdings Managing Member, Trump Endeavor 12 LLC, 401 North Wabash Venture LLC, Trump Old Post Office LLC, 40 Wall Street LLC, are hereby enjoined from applying for loans from any financial institution chartered by or registered with the NewYork Department of Financial Services for a period of three years.
Horseback guess—it wouldn't apply to the acceptability of the surety bond, but reasonably should extend to any agreement the defendants enter into with the surety to provide comfort that they will be able to get repaid promptly by having to pay out on the surety. Continuing that thought, the surety would want a guarantee from an out-of-state financial institution (but of New York capital markets scale) in lieu of a reimbursement agreement with Trump. Goodie, another player!
Three ways from Sunday screwed he is.
wow. I didn't see that 'registered" bit. Far as I can tell, "chartered in New York" is mainly used to distinguish State from Federally chartered bank. Both need to be registered/licensed. Judge E probably correctly must have felt he couldn't rule on Federal chartered stuff--but that 'registered" could be a big deal, indirectly.
Surety bonds are issued by insurance companies, not banks. Query whether that counts as a financial institution and whether a loan of credit (which is what a guaranty is at base) is the kind of loan in the order.
Up that creek with no paddle in sight, perhaps.
Oh, he can't get loans from banks chartered or registered in NY must be a spiked dildo up the a##.
Thanks. I THINK I follow, but your last sentence is actually good enough for me.
Technical details, but after Engoron's ruling tRump can't go to any bank chartered in NY for a loan, but could he work with an in-state guarantor? Can he put up NY properties controlled by tRump Org as collateral?
No matter how much Tucker Carlson groveled and debased himself, if Putin is being realistic about tRump's re-election chances, he knows funding tRump has a 50% chance - or less - of scoring Russia a quid pro quo.
My guess is that we will see overtures to the Saudis very soon. MBS can better afford funding tRump than Putin can, both politically and financially, if tRump loses his reelection bid.
I doubt the court would take anything from a non-licensed "guarantor" because that is really surety and those have to be licensed (though not home-based) in the state. The court wants cash or an immediate source of cash: a surety can provide it (assuming they have the reserves needed to get the license); a guarantor can welsh and have to be sued which is the last thing the court wants. Any surety company big enough to write this bond who "welshes" would find itself in receivership right smartly. A lender obviously provides the cash; it is important to note that such cash does NOT earn interest. Interest on the loan is trump's responsibility.
I don't think the judgment prevents him from putting up collateral that is located in NY for either a surety bond (at least a surety domiciled outside NY) or a lender domiciled outside NY. The question is: is this collateral acceptable, ie easily gettable if the surety or lender needs to be paid back.
Isn’t Putin under sanctions, along with many (hopefully most) of his oligarch buddies? I would think/hope that taking funds from someone under sanction would be at least frowned upon and hopefully illegal.
This is such fun!
Again, I'm outside my lane because I'm not a commercial lawyer, but in the areas in which I was most familiar a collateral agreement is just that—it's collateral to some other agreement, not a standalone. So how to characterize that agreement. If it is a re-imbursement agreement does that mean it is not [also] a loan?
Not to mention that it is very doubtful that Trump has any property free of SOMEONE already in a first lien position. Attornment and subordination agreement, anyone? Sure, we finance guys have tricks for anything, but only assuming that the client blows past the Danger Will Robinson™️ signs we wave in their face. Or fear of bank examiners. Or reputational risk, including share price sentiment (being always mindful whether one's vested by unexercised stock options remain in the money.
And the idea of liquidating an equity interest in commercial real estate secured, probably, by a claim on rents within the time available is too implausible even to be adapted into a Marvel flyer.
The surety requires an indemnity agreement, with or without collateral. Those have been honed over time to be very pro surety, needless to say. Any collateral secures performance of the indemnity agreement.
I didn't have to actually go after anyone for the indemnity agreement; we had a specialized collections guy for that, or hired outside counsel. I do have war stories galore at some of the shenanigans folks used to avoid the indemnity agreement when there was no collateral.
Thank you for clarifying things in greater detail.
When (or if, as you put it) tRump loses his reelection bid, why would either MBS or Putin want to help bail him out? I can't imagine that tfg's "friendship" with MBS is anything more than opportunism on the part of MBS (a just-in-case friendship).
I agree completely - every tRump relationship is entirely transactional. If/when his reelection bid fails, and the prosecutions against him succeed, he'll have little to offer anybody. He'll be relegated to hawking trinkets on late-night TV - I don't know, say, over-priced gold lame sneakers mad in China.
His theft of government documents to sell didn't work out as he'd hoped, except maybe the reason he claims to have $400 million cash on hand has something to do with a missing binder full of kopmpromat on Russian election interference.
At this point it looks to me like tRump is aging like listeria-infected milk
That's my take as well.
My guess is that the Saudis could buy a Trump property and give him the option to repurchase it at a later date for a small premium. That gives Trump cash for the appeal bond.
I dunno - they absolutely COULD do something like that - the PIF is essentially bottomless. MBS, however, is no one's fool, and he could be coming around to the idea that cheetolini is damaged goods on a scale that precludes him from doing the Saudis any good. He will cut his losses without thinking twice (as will Putin).
From your pixels to G-d’s receptors.
You must have read my mind Sooz!
That's my thought as well. Wouldn't be at all surprised if tfg's phone number is blocked by MBS once tfg loses in November.
Judith I pray daily he loses even before the election and has no chance of ever seeing the light if day ever again.
They'd sell it back at an inflated price he'd have to take a loan out to make good on.
Isn't the ultimate question is who wants to take the credit risk on the surety bond? I mean Brand Name Big Bucks Surety could insure/reinsure with a Berkshire-Hathaway grade outfit. It piles credit decision upon credit decision if so single Warren Buffet wants all of it and the whole deal has to be syndicated.
In your experience, is the size of this precedented?
And am I right (mere California lawyer that I am, and a deal guy to boot) that Ms Jones can serve a notice of enforcement and then Trump is at the mercy of the Sheriff after about 20 days if he hasn't gotten a discretionary stay pending appeal from the judge that he has done so much to endear himself to?
I'm pretty sure re-insurers have to be licensed also in the state. I was very rarely involved with reinsurance other than noting if we had it (and involvement long ago in an SBA guaranteed small contractor program). For a bond this size a reinsurance treaty no doubt kicks in. I suspect there are bonds that big, though I don't know about appeal bonds. But there are certainly big construction contracts that get written; my company didn't write anything this big. We tapped out at a few million. The biggest claim I handled involved two 8 million dollar projects (two bonds, same principal).
Trump is apparently at the mercy of the Sheriff right now, unless he gets that bond. The automatic stay does not go into effect until BOTH bond and notice of appeal are in place. That's NY; not sure how it works elsewhere. I wasn't on the underwriting side, except insofar as I had to interact with them if claim came up.
Even if there is precedent for this size appeal bond, I'm not at ALL sure there have been many appeal bonds requested where FRAUD damages are the things being appealed. I know I would choke with laughter if someone asked me if we should write such a bond without full collateral. Right, just trust the integrity of the principal. Uh Huh.
I'm not sure if a Letter of Credit to the Court would work. It doesn't look like it. It might work as collateral for the surety, if the bank was big enough to honor it. That just kicks the problems of collateral down the line.
Makes me wish I were still in the game (or at least close enough that I could follow the inside-baseball gossip before it became news). But then I remember my dinners consisting of scrounging the leftover pastry when I began feeling faint at 3 am, and the desire evaporates.
I retired in early 2010. Gotta tell you that the 2008 recession kept me busy late into the 3 AM time. I was doing mostly California Motor Vehicle bonds at that point--getting too creaky for the travel needed for performance/payment bonds. The collapse of the California motor vehicle biz started about a year before we were officially in a recession. Many war stories on THAT one, too.
Maybe Jared's 2 billion?
I don't think that is strictly speaking "his." it is an investment in his company. Other investors would be highly pissed if it was used for this.
I doubt Jared would even consider it...he seen enough and I bet Ivanka has as well. Eric and Don Jr., who knows?
Oh, they're stupid enough to try, and too stupid to actually make anything happen.
This. The ones who OWN that money have been known to take bone saws to folks who annoy them. He is managing $2BN in investments, and profiting from fees.
Yeah. If he does get it from some foreign power, do you think that Extremes might cast a baleful look at the assertion that presidents can't be dinged for conflicts of interest?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Who knows with them? I mean they have their own problems with that concept...
How many other investors are there, though? Wikipedia says, "Its sources of funding are overwhelmingly from the Saudi Arabian government." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affinity_Partners
OK, the folks whose businesses the fund is supposed to invest in would be pissed. Suddenly after all the applications they are told "sorry, we are using the money to cover my father in law's ass."
That sounds right. Also occurred to me Kushner might not want to do that anyway. He's not the charitable type.
Wouldn’t using “investment” funds for something like this be pretty equivalent to a pyramid scheme? Not actually investing the money at all. Seems a big no-no unless the “fund” is unregistered and actually just a slush-fund/bribe (or payment for classified information received).
You may be sure that the legal paperwork is in order. And the source of that $2BN is the Saudi PIF (sovereign investment fund) - it belongs to the Saudi royal family. It would be safer to steal from the Mob than to screw with their money.
I love your brilliant, logical mind, Jay. I was wondering if the Saudis or Russia would come to his rescue... havent they invested in him enough? I'm sure they are enjoying the shit show in America. I continually am amazed at how America got to this place, with a monster like Trump who has such a cultish grip on a section of our population. I think, at least for me, he needs to be in jail and let us try to heal from the nightmare. Thanks for your always clear explanations!
Make America Smart Again! ✌️💙
Thank Reagan and his 'gubmint=bad' rhetoric. IMHO.
Oh, you mean Ronnie “at whose name every head shall bow and every knee shall bend”? I was a college student in California during that guy’s governorship- don’t talk to me about “St. Ronnie” 🤬
Yup I was at UCLA and got to pay tuition where as it was free before. He told the UC if they needed money, just sell the books in the library. The books are the University along with the professors . Nothing else is needed.
Exactly right. Check out Robert Reich’s “Really Big Picture” posting here in Substack from earlier this week. (5 minute read/video)
Reagan changed the core structure of our economy in ways leading *directly* (and predictably) to the rise of American fascism that we’re seeing today.
Article: https://robertreich.substack.com/p/the-really-big-picture
Video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sP0pRIBRcDk
Which includes the rise in homelessness.
Rise in homelessness, rise in corporate and billionaire influence on politics, rise in income inequality, lowering of US manufacturing base, lowering of living standards for all but those millionaires, etc.
Absolutely Reagan is responsible for the homeless epidemic. It started with his policies in his term and has gotten progressively worse. Now we have private equity firms using housing like commodities. We need legislation to make this illegal.
Totally agree.
We only had a small population of alcoholic around skid row but RR closed the mental institutions and dumped them all on the streets. I remember the school buses coming into Santa Monica and the next day we had homeless. Then the Vietnam Vets added to that group with PDST and no facilities.
They called it “mainstreaming” and some of it *might* have worked with a well-considered and well-funded plan for those who were able to make the transition.
They had basically nothing. They threw everyone into the ocean and said “The land is that way; sure hope you can swim.” Some headed toward the beach, but crashed on rocks. Some made it to the beach but died of exhaustion. Some very few managed to escape/survive; some very few of them perhaps 🤔 thrived. The vast majority of them swam in circles until they drowned or struck out in the wrong direction and were eaten by sharks.
The “They” at the beginning of the second paragraph is speaking of those disgorged on the streets. In case you missed me changing the slide.
The Russians are a possibility but Jared's MBS fund is, for me, much more likely a funding source. There are sanctions on the Russians but they can funnel the money thru Deutsche Banks private investment funds that have funded Trump in the past (remember "We have all the funding we need from Russia...").
Susan reading this validated every opinion thought and feeling reading Jay's brilliant piece. I have hope that Alvin Bragg will throw the book at him and put him in jail for the maximum 4 years and no parole. Time for the curtain to come down already!
And if there is gonna be an uprising then let it be when he is in jail and the rest of the cult get thrown in jail w him
Same here. Let’s be done with the national nightmare that is Trump.
Civil penalties are the icing on the criminal-conviction cake...I want to see him writing checks to cover settlements whilst clothed in an orange jump-suit.
I want the world's first prison cam to be permanently focused on the steel table where he plays poker for bags of ramen soup. In fact, that should be part of a future court order to prevent him from cheating.
tRump-branded prison cell?
I love it. They can even paint the tables gold.
😂😂
tRump-branded Ramen would be even better—we all know it’s basically worthless anyway.
Maybe McDonald's will introduce a new McTrumpy line of UnHappy Meals.
Each one “now featuring an extra ketchup packet!”
I'd be happy to have him in solitary confinement for life
No cameras
No attention
No anything
Ever AGAIN
Prison is the one place you do NOT want to be caught cheating. Dead is the least horrible thing that would happen, and I'm pretty sure he would be aware of that - all the mobsters he knows and all.
Well, given that he's who he is, I wouldn't be surprised he will get home arrest if he ever really gets jail time. Make him bunk in over at Hillary and Bill's!
One of my friends is convinced that neither he, nor ANY other POTUS will ever do one minute behind bars. He's probably right, but that doesn't stop me from hoping.
I want him in jail!
This couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. 😂
lol
To all Trump supporters: It’s time to dig in your pocket and donate because he want your money so he can pay for his fine. 😂
I already have this Bye-Don 2024 mug 👇
t.co/pXJyb8JNpA
So funny! 😆
I read this morning that in the Go-Fund-Me created to pay off his fines, something like perhaps 20,000+ was raised as of yesterday. So, either Joe Blow Six-Pack is waiting to get his paycheck at the beginning of the month to dig in and come up with it, or people are tapped out, at least for paying these fines. I mean, it's not like Trump is a like-able guy. He is an a--hole! A--holes who are top might get people's money, those who look like losers get less.
A separate substack thread mentioned this go fund me, and that it explicitly violates the terms of service. A bunch of folks were reporting it to go fund me. Should be interesting to see if they shut it down.
Sure hope so and quickly!
I hope they shut him down fast!
These shoes are real, I believe:
https://gettrumpsneakers.com/cdn/shop/files/GSIMG1.webp?v=1708199500&width=750
Unless it's really grand satire. But i'm pretty sure it's what he was booed off the stage for in Philly the other day.
He was - that was at SneakerCon - and sneakerheads are very much about authenticity. A quality His Orangeness does not possess.
And it's not like one of his minions is gonna say, "Master, sneakerheads are all about authenticity, You can't go there!"
He probably saw he could hawk them at Sneaker Con and thought the con part was right up his alley.
Yes. I saw that bit in Jeff Tiedrich's Substack today. He has a video of Trump hawking them and the rube who bought a pair for 5 thou or maybe 9 thou.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/this-week-in-stupid-february-18-edition?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&comments=true
List price for those sneaks is $399 - if someone paid more, he got taken. Well - anyone who pays the list price is getting taken, so...
I wouldn't take them for free!! That's like buying a nazi plate IMO
I think the guy's pair were signed by Trump. I think those are going on the display case of Trump memorabilia in the guy's house. It reminds me of my Nazi great-uncle telling me there was something of Hitlers that the family in East Germany had. I told him, "I don't want to hear about it." Fortunately that great uncle is long gone, and I don't have any family here in the US that is for Trump.
He also got booed off the stage in Philly (I think it was Philly) for hawking these things. He's completely insane. That's really the scariest thing about him, even more than the awfulness.
Yup! He is a lunatic. Wonder how much of this is drug induced.
Oh. I believe a very good part of it is drug induced. I don't think it's all senility there
I heard someone has bid $9,000 for them. Wonder where they’re made???
China. Where else. I wonder if Trump will cough up the money from his secret Chinese Bank Account that they discovered awhile back? He's dealt with them a lot despite his projecting this on Biden.
They’re made in Mexico. Oh, the irony…
Probably child slave labor in a factory either in a Red State or in Asia, or Latin America.
Def not made in America
However, that is the goal of all these Red States getting rid of child labor protection laws.
Probably made by gulag prisoners in the arctic circle.
Doesn't really matter - they're just crappy high-tops.
Shouldn’t he (Trump) be under constant scrutiny by the Feds as a possible foreign asset? Regardless if he’s POTUS, a former POTUS or a potential future POTUS this is a national security issue. It still baffles me how he was able to get away with his years of influence peddling before his first run.
This has been the fight for many years now. There was certainly ample evidence to suggest that he was colluding with the Russians and that they had kompromat on him, but not enough for Mueller to recommend charging him with conspiracy. This battle is still ongoing, with multiple players, including former AG Barr and Rudy Giuliani.
Barr's probably too slippery to get anywhere with, but Rudy's on the hook for 9 figures - which he does not have, or anything like it. At this point, he can be gotten to, I believe. He was really enjoying his life before he got mixed up with the orange thingy, and now he is not.
It bugs me to no end how the nation has essentially discarded the findings of Robert Mueller. The report stated that Russia interfered with the 2016 election "in sweeping and systematic fashion" and identified a massive web of connections with Trump associates. But because of a massive obfuscation effort by Trump associates, including false testimony, deleted communications and such, no action was taken on this report.
Garland, among many other weak-kneed responses he has had towards Trump, could have taken further action on this report, but instead he mothballed it.
He should be fired today and replaced with someone with the tenacity of Lina Khan.
The Mueller findings are out of the public eye, but DOJ and FBI are watching for Russian activity like never before. A couple days ago Wray reported at the Munich Security Conference that FBI had recently dug out a tick that Fancy Bear had installed on routers to create a botnet (https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/02/doj-turns-tables-on-russian-hackers-uses-their-malware-to-wipe-out-botnet/). I find it interesting that Wray made this public at this time. I suspect we're going to see more of this as the election nears.
Thanks. A lot of routers are using a pretty old XML-based authentication protocol (SAML) that requires extreme monitoring diligence. The threat vectors come from a lot places, though, including the Chinese government. But you're right, the threats will start multiplying this year.
Yes. I love Lina Khan and I was thinking this about Garland the other day!
In this case, I suspect that Department of the Treasury (or is it the Secret Service?) is monitoring all cash flows linked to Russia as a matter of routine, which would likely make it much easier to have solid evidence.
With the sanctions in place, this does make it easier.
Forewarned is forearmed and I thank you for the final section of this report. Yes, Trump will access his overseas autocrats, tap his children, and his MAGA base for cash infusion and likely he’ll get what he asks for. BUT, with the press and public watching like never before maybe 🤔 he will finally be caught out for the financial fraud that he has always been. Cross fingers and toes the light comes on for his base to finally see him for the charlatan that he always has been.
I want to see his life time pension from being President be garnished
And then there is the potential take over of the RNC by Laura Trump (Eric's wife).
But I think even MAGA Republicans up for reelection would balk at this. They need their piece of that money for their own elections.
Lara Trump Vows 'Every Single Penny' RNC Has Will Go to Donald Trump
https://www.newsweek.com/lara-trump-republican-rnc-chair-money-donald-1869737
This was the sad, inevitable place where the GOP would wind up. Just an arm of Trumpism.
They're all so like Putin's cronies, just yes people.
If Trump doesn't loot the RNC directly, he'll use it to cut off funds to any Republicans who offend him besides looking at opportunities for kickbacks like he did with the Presidential Pardons.
Another reason why they're bootlicking even worse than when Trump was POTUS
She married a silly character from SNL (beautifully played by Alex Moffat), and everyone knows it. She'll fade away soon, just like the rest of them.
Have you heard her sing, "I Won't Back Down"? Absolutely horrifying.
No, and I will not seek it out. :-)
Although if I could watch William Shatner sing Rocket Man I guess I can get through anything.
Yeah, don't - I saw and heard about 40 seconds of the video, and I'd love to get that outta my head. Maybe when Stinkybutt loses for the final time.
Does the RNC get a choice in who is running things or does Trump just get to decide? He seems to decide everything else for the GOP these days.
Oh, the party's just a subsidiary of Trump Org now - lock, stock, and barrel. All you need to know you saw when the GQP insisted on a border deal, and then killed it when they got it because himself wants the issue for his campaign.
It's a hostile takeover by a mob boss.
That’s seems to be true. Trump Org doesn’t need to operate in New York when they have an entire country full of MAGA to manipulate with the help of the RNC.
I love your use of the term “wrecking balls“ because nothing means more to Trump than his reputation. The fact that he’s now selling fake gold-plated sneakers with his name on them tells us how bad things are for him at the moment. May they only get worse.
Von trump is an expert in selling snake oil. He must have a trick up his sleeves or somebody else's
Isn't throwing shoes considered a severe insult in some cultures?
Besides, using something with tfgs name on it to step in dog poo seems quite appropriate.
He will take any foreign help offered and will make promises to make good if he's president. In Putin's case, just the chaos that Trump brings to the American political landscape is well worth the investment. Expect some land deal(s) for way over appraised value this year as Putin and co. get the cash to him.
He should give texas as collateral to putin! Good riddance
Many people are saying - only the best people, of course - that he'll give to Russia the portion of Alaska that you can see Russia from. Or maybe all of Alaska if he really gets desperate.
He doesn't even have to win the election. He already demonstrated that even without any official status, he can kill off Ukraine aid bills just fine.
I listened to a snippet from one of his speeches (one of the speech showing mental deterioration) and at the end he said, very clearly and cogently, “When I get elected, you’ll all get a new house and a new car.”
I had to watch it 3 times before I could believe it.
That's what I'm thinking.
Would taking money from foreign governments risk violating sanctions (Russia) or foreign agent registration?
It depends on how the money came through. There are certain oligarchs whose assets are frozen and who couldn’t make the loan. But it’s still considered a commercial loan that has to be repaid, rather than a gift or income. So it’s unclear what would be allowed.
This could get so interesting. There are options for loans that are never paid back or collateralized, not paid back and the collateral never taken. Or, as happened in 2008, Dmitry Rybolovlev just way overpaid for Trump’s palm beach property.
Wow - where did you come from? Anyway, bye boi.
And would taking money from a sanctioned country (Russia) risk Trump ending up sanctioned himself?
" As Richard Pildes, a professor of constitutional law at NYU Law School, noted in response to an inquiry from Politico, “Campaign funds cannot be used for that purpose regardless of whether the PAC is the decision-maker.”
Please Conald, try anyway. Thanks.
Chapter 11 is an option for Trump. Solvency doesn't preclude it. While the defamation judgment is most likely not subject to discharge, collection would nevertheless be stayed by the filing. As for New York's recent judgment, it seems doubtful that Section 523 of the Bankruptcy Code would except it from discharge. The option is still unappealing because Trump would have to testify under oath about his financial condition and taking the 5th during the testimony would probably set him up for a Chapter 11 trustee who would oust him from possession and be a thorn in his side. Also, Trump would have to come up with a sizeable retainer to get any competent bankruptcy lawyer to take his case.
Thank you for this additional explanation. It seems that one way or another, this con artist is in deep trouble, which is exactly where he belongs.
Schadenfreude is what I'm feeling whenever someone talks about details that will make Trump's life mentally distracting and difficult, just as he has made it difficult for the rest of us to enjoy our lives with the threat of Trump hanging over us. A sort of doomsday feeling.
Thank you for the elucidation.
I read from a couple of posts Elon Musk had visited trump after the judgment from Engoron was announced. I cannot find any information concerning this however. Do you know if this is true?
I believe I saw a report that he had flown to Palm Beach but I could not verify.
Haha! The roles in this headline from 2017 have certainly flipped! 🤣😂😅
https://www.nydailynews.com/2022/07/13/trump-i-could-have-made-elon-musk-beg-on-his-knees/
I found several articles dating from 2017 to 2023 but nothing current. Propaganda is everywhere so that is why I asked.
Sorry I don't have current information! But I wouldn't be surprised.
The ElonJet Mastodon account is helpful here. His Jet flew from Austin into West Palm Beach 2 days ago, and departed 18 hours ago back to Austin. Of course we don't know what Musk did in Palm Beach, or whether he even was on board those flights, but the inference is strong.
Yes, you’re seeing the same reports I am.
Just out of curiosity, how many minutes a day do you sleep?
Thank you. I just went to mastodon and checked it out.
Bingo! Musk gives Dementia J. T. a personal loan for some but not all of the amount, using some of Dementia’s stock in the merged Truth Social - Digital World Acquisition Corp. formed from the SPAC as collateral. Simple interest only, one payment due annually, no principal due for ten years. In about one year, Truth Social hires or contracts Musk as a social network media consultant under a ten year employment contract, pay is in stock options to Truth Social shares equal to the amount of the annual loan payment plus ten percent of the loan amount. It’s up to Musk if he wants to exercise the options. If the shares go up, Musk can make a profit by exercising and selling. If they go down, no big deal, it’s only chump change to Elon.
Is this even possible?