Just a little off the subject but I believe most Americans who think Trump’s legal woes are Biden’s doing, have no idea that the grand juries handing down indictments are made up of regular citizens. They think Jack Smith (or Fanni etc) did it all on his own. Can we get the press to better educate these idiots?
At this point, if they don’t understand that they probably can’t come around to the idea. It doesn’t fit with Trump’s narrative, so their brains are twisting themselves in knots to make it make sense.
Maybe your work on other platforms, geared to younger voters, can take on this task? I also think people in most states do not know how their voting process works. That’s different in every state, so more of a challenge, but still worth an effort.
I was on a federal grand jury. Those people do not mess around. We heard about 50-75 cases and voted not to indict in one, and it's not because we were a bunch of reactionaries, believe me -- they don't bother bringing cases unless they have the receipts, often literally.
You're right about that - and it is also the kind of thing that more people need to participate in. And never mind a Grand Jury - most people I know will tie themselves in knots to avoid regular jury service - along with voting, the most basic of civic duties.
True story: I became a US Citizen in August of 2008, just before the first Obama election. The first two things I dropped into the mailbox when I got home from swearing in were my passport application and voter registration card. Later that day, I was talking to people at this small local art gallery where I was volunteering. I was SO excited. And this one woman told me, "Oh, I am not registered to vote - I am not going to. That's how they pull you into jury duty." I wanted to shake her. Honestly, I don't know how I kept my temper. I was in the immigration system FOURTEEN YEARS for the right to vote in this country, and she just.... couldn't be bothered. Boggles the mind.
I, too, wonder what goes through so many American heads that they avoid voting and jury duty. When I was a young adult some wise person told me to look at jury duty thinking as the person on trial and what sort of persons would I like to have on my jury.
It may not be my favorite activity but only with an upcoming surgery have I ever asked to be excused.
When it comes to voting, I have always seen it as the right, privilege, and duty of an American adult. While I was able I would let co-workers, who might not have a car, know that I would give them a ride to their voting location. I also really felt for those poll workers who came in so early and worked with the grumpy masses for the day. I took in a pizza or cookies for them each election day.
I agree that jury duty should be an obligation. However, the system needs to change so that jury duty is not seen a s burden (which it can be when people have to lose paycheck and receive, in its place, the measley jury pay.) I was lucky enough to be a union employee whose contract required my company to pay my salary while on jury duty. THAT should be the law. It was also very frustrating to see so many prospective jurors arriving at the waiting hall only to be dismissed because they spoke no English. IMHO, English should be a requirement for naturalization if, for no other reason, than new citizens should be able to sit for jury duty like every other citizen and be able to read the laws in their new country.
Maria K., you might contact your county or county to see how you get your name on a grand jury list. It can be hard & time consuming but again, volunteers willing to participate are so needed.
It was, but of course there's only so much I can say about it, at least I think. @jaykuo -- if you're listening, what's the deal?
I definitely got the impression that crypto is for child porn, gun running and drugs, and any benign uses for it are incidental. Granted, my perspective may be skewed ...
"... crypto is for child porn, gun running and drugs, and any benign uses for it are incidental."
Well, you aren't wrong as it turned out - and many of us had a clue about that when it first began to be a thing. The dudes who started it were just high-tech libertarians who think government ought to have nothing to do with anything whatever - particularly as regards control of the economy. I think they thought of the uses you mention as a minor and necessary cost of doing business, since they themselves do not respect any amount of dough less than a billion.
And it also turns out - crypto is not nearly as anonymous as they (and of course, the criminals using it) had hoped. It isn't easy to track it, but it is possible, and it does happen.
I’ll just say I am close to someone who currently serves on a grand jury, and they report indictments on nearly every count, just as you say. The evidence is tight and compelling, and law enforcement do their job meticulously.
We are talking about people who still believe the election was stolen. Unfortunately, for a far too large segment of the population, there is no educating them.
My hope is that if they knew how grand juries work, they would start to realize there’s a basis for all of these indictments, which then might make them question the big lie, too. I know....it’s just a dream....
In that vein, eff Iowa, big news is the E Jean Carroll defamation trial and the damages to be awarded the plaintiff kicks off today...Judge Lewis Kaplan promised no circus atmosphere, and the jury will be asked to pay out boatloads of compensatory dollars to Ms Carroll for enduring years of insults and calumnies visited upon her by the Orange Gobshite...let's roll!
I absolutely agree Linda, but having watched my college educated little brother completely buy into the maga fascists, I truly believe that these people will continue to remain willfully ignorant. They simply have no desire to hear facts or the truth. It’s sad and completely maddening to try to communicate with people who have bought into this cult wholeheartedly. 💙
I guess it’s true that having a college education cannot overcome one’s prejudices or grievances. It’s apparently personal with these people; and that is more important than doing the right thing for the country.
Absolutely but is anyone pushing back on them? NO. We act Pollyannish when we assume people will use common sense and not buy propaganda. The GOP and Trump have a huge head start on this war.
The willfully ignorant sheep that believe Cheetolini's lies also believe that all of the media lies to them EXCEPT the deeply dishonest right-wing sites . . . They aren't listening to anything that would interfere with or contradict their twisted worldview.
Also, I would wonder what majors those college graduates are in? Business? When we see how American profs are teaching economics, it is small wonder that their graduates believe in the trickle down lie. Another BIG LIE! When I skimmed the reports on the IOWA caucus, which I don't care about because these are all Republicans voting, and that is minus the people who did not come out because of the frigid weather. We can assume that more Haley and DeSatin voters just did not brave the cold. So, that skews things too. The questions are: what percentage of Americans vote Republican? According to this, it is about evenly split.
So, this is not a Trump mandate, or a Republican mandate. I am glad Biden skipped it. A state that hardly represents the diversity of our nation should not be where elections start. It is like saying, let us start off by hearing from one of the least diverse states. That might represent the Republican party, but it does not represent the Democrats.
Yep - you can all have her in '28 - we need her now, but she's term limited, and will be available then - assuming she would want to, which she may not.
I found it discouraging tha MSNBC and CNN spent 24 hours covering his ridiculous caucus, as if it was the deciding factor of the entire election. Thank goodness football, basketball, and Australian Open tennis was on, so I could avoid realizing over and over how terribly deranged the 51% of Iowans truly are! And how awful it is that 90% of white Iowans worry about immigration as their top concern! Thank you Jay for keeping our perspective in check! Meanwhile Biden raised $ 97 million in his last quarter of 2023!! Focus on that news organizers!
Exactly, and that’s what I’ve been waiting for someone to point out. It’s a statistical blip in the big picture. Iowa sends only a small number to the Republican convention. Caucus turnout was low due to weather and it was mostly the diehard tRump cultists that showed up. So no big surprise on the results, but based on 51% of 15% of a small number of convention delegates, in a rural mostly white farm state, MSM has crowded tRump the steamroller winner right through the convention and into November.
I live in Mi and work with a woman who says all the illegal immigrants coming across the southern border "terrifies her" and she "fears for her life because they are dangerous people". Again, we are in Michigan. As a matter of fact we work in Dearborn, Mi where our immigrants come over on planes which ironically doesn't bother her. It doesn't bother me either, it's just a fact. But she is fearful of people who will most likely never make it into our state. But it was her excuse for supporting trump so there ya go.
The tropes from Fox News' 24/7 barrage leak into the mainstream press. The problem becomes: People don't need to watch Fox to be influenced by it, because the mainstream press often picks up their themes and runs with them.
This comment hit me as a sad commentary that these people really are fearful, because of the lies & propaganda. They believe it all. If we do end up in a fascist dictatorship they will be actually have a reason to be fearful.
What's really sad is that intelligent people who listen to and believe the propoganda but don't do any due diligence and research what they are hearing. And then they spread the propoganda to others. It's a true uphill battle for those of us who don't believe everything we are fed and would rather spread truth as opposed to fear.
Alas, Pam! Your friend is suffering from excessive propaganda/ gaslighting/ lies, etc!
Back in the ‘50s we called it “brainwashing”! That’s kind of a more descriptive term to understand! Over time one really comes to BELIEVE the B.S. they’re being fed!
Over the years propaganda techniques (and delivery systems - thanks internet algorithm created info silos) brainwashing has become even more effective - and dangerous!
I agree and this woman suffers from a lot of delusions LOL I literally don't discuss this kind of stuff with her, she doesn't hear logic and never has. I stopped trying years ago. Fortunately we work from home more days than we are in the office now and I don't have to listen to her convoluted rants :)
Remember: it was only 110,000 of the 590,000 Republicans who voted in the last few elections in Iowa. Therefore it was only 51% of that number...not an overwhelming number, by any stretch.
And from my years of living in Iowa, your average Iowan doesn’t caucus. These are the hardcore supporters. Having said that, the average Iowan is sadly not who I’d want to be friends with any longer. So many of my former friends, people I thought were smarter than that, are MAGATs.
Jay, thank you. You give us hope in the midst of this dystopian landscape. Thank you-we need the hope of rational, reasonable decency to energize us to work for better. You voice that. Thank you!💙
Maybe I'm just grumpy and uncharitable today, but I'm not seeing any of the silver linings you're seeing. The people who "should know better" don't know better because they don't want to know better. Trump is not out there as some unknown entity talking about policy. Everyone knows he sent a mob to kill Congress so he could stay president; everyone knows he'd do it again, and everyone knows he thinks we're vermin. That's all he talks about anymore. Anyone who voted for him, that's what they're voting for. They know it and they want that.
I don't even know what percentage of people who say "the 2020 election was stolen" even really believe it was, and how many know Trump lost but they don't care -- they think he should just be president by force because he and they are the only Americans who count. (I guarantee the latter group is not zero, though.)
None of this is to say Biden can't win. In fact I think he probably will. But there's something about seeing what the Republican Party is in actual vote counts that's sobering and clarifying. Of course, the people who make six and seven figures covering national politics will be sure to do anything BUT clarify that.
It's going to be a depressing year even if Biden wins, is what I'm saying.
It’s critical that Democrats pull themselves out of the “funk” that they are in. We can’t win an election only begrudgingly going to the ballot box to vote. We need fire and determination. That’s why I highlight good election indicators when I note them.
Mind you, given the poor turnout, a whole bunch of eligible Republican voters opted to stay home, likely because of the weather, opting not to follow through with TFG's advice to get to the caucus or "die trying." That's somewhat hopeful. The ones that did come were the base of the base.
Sure; I get that. And if I had to pick right now, I'd say Biden will win in November. There was a poll saying that a plurality of Nikki Haley voters will vote for Biden over Trump -- I don't know whether that was Iowa or nationwide, or how many of those voters are Democrats crossing over to create chaos, but sure -- that's a hopeful sign.
I'm not trying to be discouraging; I'm hoping people remember how bad another Trump term would be, in the face of a multibillion-dollar media machine that's actively promoting it and another one that's saying it wouldn't really be so bad.
Totally agree. I don't see the silver linings either except maybe the number of voters being down. The fact that he got 51% of the vote is still scary and eye opening. As my Repub counterpart in my job as a poll worker said when I asked him why he would still vote for trump his answer was "Because he's trump. I don't care what he's accused of, the only reason I need is that he's trump". Damn scary reasoning. And this man has admitted he knows the election wasn't stolen so that has nothing to do with it. These people are literally blind cult followers.
Convert that 51% to real numbers. There were only 110,000 votes. That's out of the possibility of about 1.7 million. 51% of 110, 000 is only 56,100. I see not a whole lot of Iowans willing to take the effort to vote for trump.
True but that also could be because the ones who didn't vote also assumed he was the front runner so why bother. Not to look on the "gloom and doom" side of it but I worry that 51% of the 1.7 million would vote for him. Though I just don't get why anyone in this country would vote for him yet here we are.
I mean, there are reasons to be hopeful, like Jay says, but "There are signs Republicans are backing away from Trump and deciding to rejoin America" isn't one of them. And this is Iowa, which likes to brag that, being first in the nation, they really stay on top of things.
Did you ask your counterpart what "Because he's Trump" means? Or explain "Yeah that's exactly why I'm voting against him"? I'd be curious to know the response to either of those.
I didn't because when I get answers that just escape logic it tends to piss me off and I needed to work with this guy the entire day (he's the chair, I'm the co chair). He also believes all the charges brought against trump are bogus, that was already enough to make my head explode.
He knows how I feel about trump, we've had that discussion before. He's also a person who is looking to move from Mi to Ohio because Ohio is red so most of the time I'm not sure about the logic going on in his head LOL I mean when we aren't on the subject of trump he's a nice guy but we are never going to be friends
"... he and they are the only Americans who count" - if he gets elected again, a lot of them are going to find out that they count a good deal less than they thought they would...
Foregone conclusion...zero interest in how hard-right religious jerks, tRumpy cultists, and the generally uninformed voted. Can't believe the media attention wasted on this "race"...NYT and its "needle", LOL!
Like GOPers everywhere, nearly 2/3 of Iowans "believe" the 2020 'lekshun was stolen, and same percentage would vote for tRump even if he were convicted on one or more felonies. Eff these morons.
A large portion of the eligible electorate stayed home! The turn out was horrid, the weather awful, so only the diehards showed up to honor their "dear leader" who told them to show up even if it killed them.
That's the take-away and it is not a winning proposition.
Thank you for your insightful breakdown. Winning the Iowa Caucus was a bit of a "Person, woman, man, camera, TV" test for Trump.
Something that has occurred to me because of your piece is that in the minds of his adherents he IS the incumbent, which he has managed to propagate by whining about losing non-stop since 2020. This offers him an advantage inside the GOP over any potential rival that goes a long way towards offsetting his legal troubles.
Democrats need to stop quoting facts and statistics proving how great Joe Biden is, and reframe the argument with some good one-liners. If Biden said something like "At least you have toilet paper this year" he'd get a laugh, it would stick in people's minds, and it would deftly point out that under Trump the shelves in the stores were BARE in May, 2020. Call Al Franken in my state. I'm sure he'd help.
Biden has a lot of great one liners that I see regularly on social media. But the media doesn’t report them because they for some reason believe it is uncool to portray Biden in a positive way.
You win the stuffed toy.😺 I personally think they are hedging their bets against a Trump victory. They don't want him coming after them if that occurs.
Living in Vermont, I get to see the NH commercials for Haley, trump and that Dean Phillips guy, who's latest ad has Sasquatch looking for Joe Biden in NH, complete with a missing person poster. One of trump's ads goes after Nikki for raising the retirement age to 70. It literally claims that "president" trump would never touch Social Security. Spit out my tea at that one. Nikki has an ad claiming that she'd beat Joe Biden by 17 points. I can't wait for this to be over. The media's not helpful, as usual, treating trump like a normal candidate and his supporters as just regular folks with different ideas. Good grief.
I love your comment Karen! Living in very blue southern California, we fortunately do not see any republican ads. Your description of the Sasquatch one had me laughing uncontrollably because, of course they did! My gawd! Will the circus never leave town? Try your best to stay sane and warm up there! It’s going to be a very long year!🫶🏼
It'll be better ad-wise after the NH primary. You should try to Google it. It's ridiculous. Thanks, snowing and 24 today. Have a great day. Say hello to the sun for me. Lol
On Monday Evangelicals gave Trump huge support in Iowa. On Tuesday he goes on trial in New York to determine the amount of damages he must pay to a woman he sexually abused. His liability ("he did it") has already been established in that case. I do not understand what it means to be an Evangelical Christian.
There is nothing Christian about them. It’s all about preserving the patriarchy, white supremacy, and the rich getting richer. They just use “Christ” as a front in an often successful attempt to shut down their critics.
And just to clarify: Carroll won her lawsuit. LOTUS was sentenced to pay $5million to her. He also defamed her on previous occasions, which a judge subsequently confirmed. This new trial is only to set the penalties he must pay for the additional slanderings.
I am convinced there is a significant number of angry voters who will vote Trump no matter what. They see the privileges they received just for being white and straight eroding, and it scares the sh*t out of them. And they are led and encouraged every step of the way by politicized right wingnut Evangelical leaders, who stuff their coffers with the money and influence those true believers give them. Why the IRS hasn't gone after these leaders, (who would lose their tax exempt status if citizens actually reported them for political speech from the pulpit) is a damn shame.
As always Jay, thanks for the insight. I am see. some folks panicking in the aftermath of the Iowa caucus. Put in context this all makes sense. Let's hope those who skip the polls will do their do diligence and actually not be lazy and vote. I am concerned about folks still not convinced about Joe Biden. We have our work cut out for the sake of Democracy, and common decency in this nation
Three fourths of the undecideds don’t yet believe Trump will actually be the GOP nominee. So this win plus the upcoming contests in Feb and Mar should dispel them of that soon, and we can begin to reach them.
The GOP has fully embraced MAGA fascist White Christian nationalist authoritarianism. If they are not thoroughly rejected in November and beyond our democratic experiment could be over. The oligarchs will reign supreme in a Handmaid’s Tale like dystopia.
This is THE issue of our time. I want to believe true American small-d democrats will stand up and do the right thing, but the ongoing (and increasing) threats of violence sure are making a lot of folks nervous. They have to get the message that the only way to slow or stop it is to vote down those who foment and encourage it.
Population of Iowa: 3.193 million. Registered voters in Iowa: 2.08 million. Turnout for caucus: 110,000. Trump votes: 56,260. What’s the big deal about Iowa? Honestly, why should we care?
The reason we are forced to care about this is because msm made headlines of tdrump's win at every chance. Looks different without the backup data. Magats eat that stuff for breakfast.
He tells them their worst fears are coming true, and that he, and only he is the answer. They desperately want to believe SOMEBODY has the answers, so they will believe him. Since those who do not remember history are doomed to repeat it, as the old saw says, the MAGAts are eagerly awaiting what will turn out to be a Gestapo that will sooner or later come for them.
What's worse, he legitimizes the worst in them. Racism, homophobia, sexism, xenophobia - anything goes. I disagree with people who say - maybe MAGAts turned that way under Trump's influence. No. They have always been that way. They were just limiting their vile remarks to the Thanksgiving dinner arguments, until they found a worthy leader for themselves, who said out loud, from the podium, what they have all been thinking.
Just a little off the subject but I believe most Americans who think Trump’s legal woes are Biden’s doing, have no idea that the grand juries handing down indictments are made up of regular citizens. They think Jack Smith (or Fanni etc) did it all on his own. Can we get the press to better educate these idiots?
At this point, if they don’t understand that they probably can’t come around to the idea. It doesn’t fit with Trump’s narrative, so their brains are twisting themselves in knots to make it make sense.
Maybe your work on other platforms, geared to younger voters, can take on this task? I also think people in most states do not know how their voting process works. That’s different in every state, so more of a challenge, but still worth an effort.
I was on a federal grand jury. Those people do not mess around. We heard about 50-75 cases and voted not to indict in one, and it's not because we were a bunch of reactionaries, believe me -- they don't bother bringing cases unless they have the receipts, often literally.
Wow, that must have been an amazing experience. See.... this is the kind of thing that people need to know more about.
You're right about that - and it is also the kind of thing that more people need to participate in. And never mind a Grand Jury - most people I know will tie themselves in knots to avoid regular jury service - along with voting, the most basic of civic duties.
True story: I became a US Citizen in August of 2008, just before the first Obama election. The first two things I dropped into the mailbox when I got home from swearing in were my passport application and voter registration card. Later that day, I was talking to people at this small local art gallery where I was volunteering. I was SO excited. And this one woman told me, "Oh, I am not registered to vote - I am not going to. That's how they pull you into jury duty." I wanted to shake her. Honestly, I don't know how I kept my temper. I was in the immigration system FOURTEEN YEARS for the right to vote in this country, and she just.... couldn't be bothered. Boggles the mind.
I, too, wonder what goes through so many American heads that they avoid voting and jury duty. When I was a young adult some wise person told me to look at jury duty thinking as the person on trial and what sort of persons would I like to have on my jury.
It may not be my favorite activity but only with an upcoming surgery have I ever asked to be excused.
When it comes to voting, I have always seen it as the right, privilege, and duty of an American adult. While I was able I would let co-workers, who might not have a car, know that I would give them a ride to their voting location. I also really felt for those poll workers who came in so early and worked with the grumpy masses for the day. I took in a pizza or cookies for them each election day.
Which is why some (many?) states have laws that if you have a driver's license, you're registered for jury duty.
It should be ALL states. And voting should be mail-in, and required!
I agree that jury duty should be an obligation. However, the system needs to change so that jury duty is not seen a s burden (which it can be when people have to lose paycheck and receive, in its place, the measley jury pay.) I was lucky enough to be a union employee whose contract required my company to pay my salary while on jury duty. THAT should be the law. It was also very frustrating to see so many prospective jurors arriving at the waiting hall only to be dismissed because they spoke no English. IMHO, English should be a requirement for naturalization if, for no other reason, than new citizens should be able to sit for jury duty like every other citizen and be able to read the laws in their new country.
Maria K., you might contact your county or county to see how you get your name on a grand jury list. It can be hard & time consuming but again, volunteers willing to participate are so needed.
Thank you, I'll take a look!
It was, but of course there's only so much I can say about it, at least I think. @jaykuo -- if you're listening, what's the deal?
I definitely got the impression that crypto is for child porn, gun running and drugs, and any benign uses for it are incidental. Granted, my perspective may be skewed ...
"... crypto is for child porn, gun running and drugs, and any benign uses for it are incidental."
Well, you aren't wrong as it turned out - and many of us had a clue about that when it first began to be a thing. The dudes who started it were just high-tech libertarians who think government ought to have nothing to do with anything whatever - particularly as regards control of the economy. I think they thought of the uses you mention as a minor and necessary cost of doing business, since they themselves do not respect any amount of dough less than a billion.
And it also turns out - crypto is not nearly as anonymous as they (and of course, the criminals using it) had hoped. It isn't easy to track it, but it is possible, and it does happen.
Just came across this today, and thought of you - you might like it:
https://www.wired.com/story/27-year-old-codebreaker-busted-myth-bitcoins-anonymity/#intcid=_wired-right-rail_51b350fb-5dbf-47c0-bc0e-72ab5657659b_popular4-1-reranked-by-vidi_fallback_cral-top2-2
I’ll just say I am close to someone who currently serves on a grand jury, and they report indictments on nearly every count, just as you say. The evidence is tight and compelling, and law enforcement do their job meticulously.
I've been saying the same thing. There needs to be more pushback when Trump claims Biden is prosecuting him because right now there's practically none
We are talking about people who still believe the election was stolen. Unfortunately, for a far too large segment of the population, there is no educating them.
My hope is that if they knew how grand juries work, they would start to realize there’s a basis for all of these indictments, which then might make them question the big lie, too. I know....it’s just a dream....
They really don't want to know. Ignorance is deliberate.
Oh, just try to get them to SIT on one, if they even get called. They will wriggle and flop like a hooked trout to get out of it.
We don't need to educate all that many of them to keep this clown out of office. Educate 10% of them, and that will do the trick.
If they could be educated, they would have figured it out already. The boat has sailed for the willfully ignorant.
In that vein, eff Iowa, big news is the E Jean Carroll defamation trial and the damages to be awarded the plaintiff kicks off today...Judge Lewis Kaplan promised no circus atmosphere, and the jury will be asked to pay out boatloads of compensatory dollars to Ms Carroll for enduring years of insults and calumnies visited upon her by the Orange Gobshite...let's roll!
I absolutely agree Linda, but having watched my college educated little brother completely buy into the maga fascists, I truly believe that these people will continue to remain willfully ignorant. They simply have no desire to hear facts or the truth. It’s sad and completely maddening to try to communicate with people who have bought into this cult wholeheartedly. 💙
I guess it’s true that having a college education cannot overcome one’s prejudices or grievances. It’s apparently personal with these people; and that is more important than doing the right thing for the country.
There are also colleges out there (Hillsdale comes to mind) that actively feed this particular troll.
Absolutely but is anyone pushing back on them? NO. We act Pollyannish when we assume people will use common sense and not buy propaganda. The GOP and Trump have a huge head start on this war.
The willfully ignorant sheep that believe Cheetolini's lies also believe that all of the media lies to them EXCEPT the deeply dishonest right-wing sites . . . They aren't listening to anything that would interfere with or contradict their twisted worldview.
Also, I would wonder what majors those college graduates are in? Business? When we see how American profs are teaching economics, it is small wonder that their graduates believe in the trickle down lie. Another BIG LIE! When I skimmed the reports on the IOWA caucus, which I don't care about because these are all Republicans voting, and that is minus the people who did not come out because of the frigid weather. We can assume that more Haley and DeSatin voters just did not brave the cold. So, that skews things too. The questions are: what percentage of Americans vote Republican? According to this, it is about evenly split.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/467897/party-preferences-evenly-split-2022-shift-gop.aspx
Then, the next questions are how many IOWANs vote Republican and how many of them voted? Again, for the first question it is about even,
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/state/iowa/party-affiliation/
according to this, less than 15% of registered Republicans in IOWA turned out.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-caucus-turnout-2024/
So, this is not a Trump mandate, or a Republican mandate. I am glad Biden skipped it. A state that hardly represents the diversity of our nation should not be where elections start. It is like saying, let us start off by hearing from one of the least diverse states. That might represent the Republican party, but it does not represent the Democrats.
https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2023/09/23/iowa-us-census-data-shows-increasing-diversity-growing-multiracial-population-buena-vista-county/70925790007/#:~:text=Despite%20increase%2C%20Iowa%20remains%20among%20least%20diverse%20states&text=Iowa's%20overall%20ranking%20for%20diversity,compared%20to%2075.1%25%20in%202010.
It would have to be Rupert Murdoch and i think he refused already.
Of course the hats the case and as a side note they would not care if they did know
About what I expected. Not surprised by Haley's low #'s.
As for her "beating Joe in a landslide"...yeah, that will never happen.
Jeffries will be the Speaker of the House before the end of '24
Biden/Harris will beat their butts in '24
'26 wont look much better for the Republicans.
'28, Gavin Newsom.
I second everything you said, but would like to add Newsom/Buttigieg 2028!
How about Whitmer/Buttigieg in 2028
Yep - you can all have her in '28 - we need her now, but she's term limited, and will be available then - assuming she would want to, which she may not.
I found it discouraging tha MSNBC and CNN spent 24 hours covering his ridiculous caucus, as if it was the deciding factor of the entire election. Thank goodness football, basketball, and Australian Open tennis was on, so I could avoid realizing over and over how terribly deranged the 51% of Iowans truly are! And how awful it is that 90% of white Iowans worry about immigration as their top concern! Thank you Jay for keeping our perspective in check! Meanwhile Biden raised $ 97 million in his last quarter of 2023!! Focus on that news organizers!
Remember, it wasn't 51% of Iowans, it was 51% of 15% of registered Republicans.
Exactly, and that’s what I’ve been waiting for someone to point out. It’s a statistical blip in the big picture. Iowa sends only a small number to the Republican convention. Caucus turnout was low due to weather and it was mostly the diehard tRump cultists that showed up. So no big surprise on the results, but based on 51% of 15% of a small number of convention delegates, in a rural mostly white farm state, MSM has crowded tRump the steamroller winner right through the convention and into November.
Copied this from a comment in a different thread so can’t guarantee accuracy of the numbers but I believe the relative proportions are correct:
Iowa caucus breakdown:
📍2,083,000 registered voters
📍718,000 registered republicans
📍102,000 people voted
📍53,219 voted for Trump
Substantially less than 51% of Iowans.
Sorry, should have said "51% of 15% of Republicans who caucused."
I live in Mi and work with a woman who says all the illegal immigrants coming across the southern border "terrifies her" and she "fears for her life because they are dangerous people". Again, we are in Michigan. As a matter of fact we work in Dearborn, Mi where our immigrants come over on planes which ironically doesn't bother her. It doesn't bother me either, it's just a fact. But she is fearful of people who will most likely never make it into our state. But it was her excuse for supporting trump so there ya go.
The tropes from Fox News' 24/7 barrage leak into the mainstream press. The problem becomes: People don't need to watch Fox to be influenced by it, because the mainstream press often picks up their themes and runs with them.
unfortunately true
True enough (woulda said "too true" but how is that even possible?)
We live in Trump's world now. Fact and accuracy are meaningless. "Too True" is perfectly acceptable, relatively speaking.
Fair enough. True, too.
This comment hit me as a sad commentary that these people really are fearful, because of the lies & propaganda. They believe it all. If we do end up in a fascist dictatorship they will be actually have a reason to be fearful.
What's really sad is that intelligent people who listen to and believe the propoganda but don't do any due diligence and research what they are hearing. And then they spread the propoganda to others. It's a true uphill battle for those of us who don't believe everything we are fed and would rather spread truth as opposed to fear.
Alas, Pam! Your friend is suffering from excessive propaganda/ gaslighting/ lies, etc!
Back in the ‘50s we called it “brainwashing”! That’s kind of a more descriptive term to understand! Over time one really comes to BELIEVE the B.S. they’re being fed!
Over the years propaganda techniques (and delivery systems - thanks internet algorithm created info silos) brainwashing has become even more effective - and dangerous!
Keep trying to present logic!
Maybe someday she’ll hear!
I agree and this woman suffers from a lot of delusions LOL I literally don't discuss this kind of stuff with her, she doesn't hear logic and never has. I stopped trying years ago. Fortunately we work from home more days than we are in the office now and I don't have to listen to her convoluted rants :)
Remember: it was only 110,000 of the 590,000 Republicans who voted in the last few elections in Iowa. Therefore it was only 51% of that number...not an overwhelming number, by any stretch.
And from my years of living in Iowa, your average Iowan doesn’t caucus. These are the hardcore supporters. Having said that, the average Iowan is sadly not who I’d want to be friends with any longer. So many of my former friends, people I thought were smarter than that, are MAGATs.
😣😢
Actually way less than that, right?
Yes good to remember. when you start looking at it in real numbers it isn't as ominous
Guess things didn’t go better with Koch!
Ha!
Gotta love it when billionaire money only gets show in a three horse race.
Jay, thank you. You give us hope in the midst of this dystopian landscape. Thank you-we need the hope of rational, reasonable decency to energize us to work for better. You voice that. Thank you!💙
Maybe I'm just grumpy and uncharitable today, but I'm not seeing any of the silver linings you're seeing. The people who "should know better" don't know better because they don't want to know better. Trump is not out there as some unknown entity talking about policy. Everyone knows he sent a mob to kill Congress so he could stay president; everyone knows he'd do it again, and everyone knows he thinks we're vermin. That's all he talks about anymore. Anyone who voted for him, that's what they're voting for. They know it and they want that.
I don't even know what percentage of people who say "the 2020 election was stolen" even really believe it was, and how many know Trump lost but they don't care -- they think he should just be president by force because he and they are the only Americans who count. (I guarantee the latter group is not zero, though.)
None of this is to say Biden can't win. In fact I think he probably will. But there's something about seeing what the Republican Party is in actual vote counts that's sobering and clarifying. Of course, the people who make six and seven figures covering national politics will be sure to do anything BUT clarify that.
It's going to be a depressing year even if Biden wins, is what I'm saying.
It’s critical that Democrats pull themselves out of the “funk” that they are in. We can’t win an election only begrudgingly going to the ballot box to vote. We need fire and determination. That’s why I highlight good election indicators when I note them.
Mind you, given the poor turnout, a whole bunch of eligible Republican voters opted to stay home, likely because of the weather, opting not to follow through with TFG's advice to get to the caucus or "die trying." That's somewhat hopeful. The ones that did come were the base of the base.
Sure; I get that. And if I had to pick right now, I'd say Biden will win in November. There was a poll saying that a plurality of Nikki Haley voters will vote for Biden over Trump -- I don't know whether that was Iowa or nationwide, or how many of those voters are Democrats crossing over to create chaos, but sure -- that's a hopeful sign.
I'm not trying to be discouraging; I'm hoping people remember how bad another Trump term would be, in the face of a multibillion-dollar media machine that's actively promoting it and another one that's saying it wouldn't really be so bad.
Totally agree. I don't see the silver linings either except maybe the number of voters being down. The fact that he got 51% of the vote is still scary and eye opening. As my Repub counterpart in my job as a poll worker said when I asked him why he would still vote for trump his answer was "Because he's trump. I don't care what he's accused of, the only reason I need is that he's trump". Damn scary reasoning. And this man has admitted he knows the election wasn't stolen so that has nothing to do with it. These people are literally blind cult followers.
Convert that 51% to real numbers. There were only 110,000 votes. That's out of the possibility of about 1.7 million. 51% of 110, 000 is only 56,100. I see not a whole lot of Iowans willing to take the effort to vote for trump.
True but that also could be because the ones who didn't vote also assumed he was the front runner so why bother. Not to look on the "gloom and doom" side of it but I worry that 51% of the 1.7 million would vote for him. Though I just don't get why anyone in this country would vote for him yet here we are.
Check out Simon Rosenberg's substack Hopium Chronicles. He's looking at the statistics & is more positive.
I mean, there are reasons to be hopeful, like Jay says, but "There are signs Republicans are backing away from Trump and deciding to rejoin America" isn't one of them. And this is Iowa, which likes to brag that, being first in the nation, they really stay on top of things.
Did you ask your counterpart what "Because he's Trump" means? Or explain "Yeah that's exactly why I'm voting against him"? I'd be curious to know the response to either of those.
I didn't because when I get answers that just escape logic it tends to piss me off and I needed to work with this guy the entire day (he's the chair, I'm the co chair). He also believes all the charges brought against trump are bogus, that was already enough to make my head explode.
He knows how I feel about trump, we've had that discussion before. He's also a person who is looking to move from Mi to Ohio because Ohio is red so most of the time I'm not sure about the logic going on in his head LOL I mean when we aren't on the subject of trump he's a nice guy but we are never going to be friends
I swear I feel myself losing brain cells when I listen to those people when they do those interviews
"... he and they are the only Americans who count" - if he gets elected again, a lot of them are going to find out that they count a good deal less than they thought they would...
Foregone conclusion...zero interest in how hard-right religious jerks, tRumpy cultists, and the generally uninformed voted. Can't believe the media attention wasted on this "race"...NYT and its "needle", LOL!
But that's the beauty of this caucus. As Jay pointed out, a very large share - 49% ! - didn't vote as you would expect.
Granted, in the big scheme of things, Iowa is not particularly important.
Like GOPers everywhere, nearly 2/3 of Iowans "believe" the 2020 'lekshun was stolen, and same percentage would vote for tRump even if he were convicted on one or more felonies. Eff these morons.
the numbers are scary. Still way too many dumb asses out there willing to put the orange moron in offic
Yep. Even if this only represents a small number of the voters it's still baffling
A large portion of the eligible electorate stayed home! The turn out was horrid, the weather awful, so only the diehards showed up to honor their "dear leader" who told them to show up even if it killed them.
That's the take-away and it is not a winning proposition.
Thank you for your insightful breakdown. Winning the Iowa Caucus was a bit of a "Person, woman, man, camera, TV" test for Trump.
Something that has occurred to me because of your piece is that in the minds of his adherents he IS the incumbent, which he has managed to propagate by whining about losing non-stop since 2020. This offers him an advantage inside the GOP over any potential rival that goes a long way towards offsetting his legal troubles.
Democrats need to stop quoting facts and statistics proving how great Joe Biden is, and reframe the argument with some good one-liners. If Biden said something like "At least you have toilet paper this year" he'd get a laugh, it would stick in people's minds, and it would deftly point out that under Trump the shelves in the stores were BARE in May, 2020. Call Al Franken in my state. I'm sure he'd help.
Biden has a lot of great one liners that I see regularly on social media. But the media doesn’t report them because they for some reason believe it is uncool to portray Biden in a positive way.
Hmm. To paraphrase George Carlin, maybe it is their "corporate overlords" looking for $$?
You win the stuffed toy.😺 I personally think they are hedging their bets against a Trump victory. They don't want him coming after them if that occurs.
I know and it just infuriates me.
Thanks, Jay, for the as-usual great post!
One question: shouldn't Ted Cruz say (R-Cancun)? /s
Living in Vermont, I get to see the NH commercials for Haley, trump and that Dean Phillips guy, who's latest ad has Sasquatch looking for Joe Biden in NH, complete with a missing person poster. One of trump's ads goes after Nikki for raising the retirement age to 70. It literally claims that "president" trump would never touch Social Security. Spit out my tea at that one. Nikki has an ad claiming that she'd beat Joe Biden by 17 points. I can't wait for this to be over. The media's not helpful, as usual, treating trump like a normal candidate and his supporters as just regular folks with different ideas. Good grief.
I love your comment Karen! Living in very blue southern California, we fortunately do not see any republican ads. Your description of the Sasquatch one had me laughing uncontrollably because, of course they did! My gawd! Will the circus never leave town? Try your best to stay sane and warm up there! It’s going to be a very long year!🫶🏼
It'll be better ad-wise after the NH primary. You should try to Google it. It's ridiculous. Thanks, snowing and 24 today. Have a great day. Say hello to the sun for me. Lol
OMG 30° warmer than Michigan! We never see the sun, either - dang Great Lakes.
Rough time of year. Stay safe and warm.
On Monday Evangelicals gave Trump huge support in Iowa. On Tuesday he goes on trial in New York to determine the amount of damages he must pay to a woman he sexually abused. His liability ("he did it") has already been established in that case. I do not understand what it means to be an Evangelical Christian.
There is nothing Christian about them. It’s all about preserving the patriarchy, white supremacy, and the rich getting richer. They just use “Christ” as a front in an often successful attempt to shut down their critics.
You'd think there would be a "smote*" of some kind from "On High" laid on these so-called "Christians" who are anything but, so far....nothing.
*preferably a lightning bolt or perhaps a giant hand with a finger waggling menacingly at the miscreants. But nope, nada.
Hmmmmm…kind of makes you think, doesn’t it?
And just to clarify: Carroll won her lawsuit. LOTUS was sentenced to pay $5million to her. He also defamed her on previous occasions, which a judge subsequently confirmed. This new trial is only to set the penalties he must pay for the additional slanderings.
LOTUS is a slander MACHINE!
I am convinced there is a significant number of angry voters who will vote Trump no matter what. They see the privileges they received just for being white and straight eroding, and it scares the sh*t out of them. And they are led and encouraged every step of the way by politicized right wingnut Evangelical leaders, who stuff their coffers with the money and influence those true believers give them. Why the IRS hasn't gone after these leaders, (who would lose their tax exempt status if citizens actually reported them for political speech from the pulpit) is a damn shame.
Let’s hope there are more angry Democratic voters who don’t want our nation collapsing into autocracy.
As always Jay, thanks for the insight. I am see. some folks panicking in the aftermath of the Iowa caucus. Put in context this all makes sense. Let's hope those who skip the polls will do their do diligence and actually not be lazy and vote. I am concerned about folks still not convinced about Joe Biden. We have our work cut out for the sake of Democracy, and common decency in this nation
Three fourths of the undecideds don’t yet believe Trump will actually be the GOP nominee. So this win plus the upcoming contests in Feb and Mar should dispel them of that soon, and we can begin to reach them.
The GOP has fully embraced MAGA fascist White Christian nationalist authoritarianism. If they are not thoroughly rejected in November and beyond our democratic experiment could be over. The oligarchs will reign supreme in a Handmaid’s Tale like dystopia.
https://open.substack.com/pub/deanobeidallah/p/trumps-big-win-in-iowa-confirms-that
This is THE issue of our time. I want to believe true American small-d democrats will stand up and do the right thing, but the ongoing (and increasing) threats of violence sure are making a lot of folks nervous. They have to get the message that the only way to slow or stop it is to vote down those who foment and encourage it.
Population of Iowa: 3.193 million. Registered voters in Iowa: 2.08 million. Turnout for caucus: 110,000. Trump votes: 56,260. What’s the big deal about Iowa? Honestly, why should we care?
The reason we are forced to care about this is because msm made headlines of tdrump's win at every chance. Looks different without the backup data. Magats eat that stuff for breakfast.
In presidential election years, you MUST care. It's the law. Plus, once the Stupor Bowl is over what else ya gonna do?
I still can't understand how, ANYONE can support Trump. It just.... doesn't compute.
He tells them their worst fears are coming true, and that he, and only he is the answer. They desperately want to believe SOMEBODY has the answers, so they will believe him. Since those who do not remember history are doomed to repeat it, as the old saw says, the MAGAts are eagerly awaiting what will turn out to be a Gestapo that will sooner or later come for them.
When they tell you who they are, believe them.
What's worse, he legitimizes the worst in them. Racism, homophobia, sexism, xenophobia - anything goes. I disagree with people who say - maybe MAGAts turned that way under Trump's influence. No. They have always been that way. They were just limiting their vile remarks to the Thanksgiving dinner arguments, until they found a worthy leader for themselves, who said out loud, from the podium, what they have all been thinking.