64 Comments

This is great news but one thing be must be said repeatedly, never be complacent!

Believing your vote will not matter, is a recipe for disaster. Consider every vote as the difference between winning or losing!

So very proud of the Gen Z and Millennial generations...

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and always be wary of efforts to suppress their votes!

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Thank you Jay.

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May 18, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

Why wait until 2032? I bet we can make the Republican party collapse earlier if we really put in the effort!

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I’m willing to help accelerate that timeline! The sooner we defeat fascism; the better.

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I like the way you think!!

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Right? Let's do this! I'll bring swords, snacks, and home-made pickles!

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I sent a copy of this article to my nephew (fen Z), my niece and her fiancé (Millennials). Our future is indeed in their hands.

I also included an apology on behalf of the boomers (me). We started out strong with a vision to change the world Peace and Love. Somewhere along the line, it was co-opted.

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Some of us are still in Peace and Love mode, so don't write us off yet. I have to say, when I was the age of the gen-Zers and millennials voting was off my radar except in presidential elections. Then came the apathy period (pretty much the Shrub years). Obama was the one who changed that, for a lot of reasons. Now that I am officially an elderly person (I was told by Ohio yesterday I could not renew my driver's license for 8 years because I had passed the age cut-off) I vote in every single election, even if the only thing on the ballot is a silly local issue involving sewers. My mother (89 last January) has stood in protest lines in our village, and her now deceased sister was wheeled through a women's march back in 2016. We all support the League of Women Voters, and mother spent all last week on the phone calling all of the Ohio "representatives" because of what they are trying to thwart.

Yes, we are women, so that does play. Mother, her sister, and I all lived in the pre-Roe world, then the post-Roe world. With age comes some wisdom based on experience.

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You and I must be of a similar age. I remember the pre-Roe times. I vividly remember when Roe was handed down. I too vote in every election. And I vote blue. So many were apathetic in 2016. I tried to reinforce “it’s about the SCOTUS”. But people I knew still voted for Jill Stein because “I don’t like Hillary”. “Oh those emails”. And here we are.

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I, too, tried to reinforce the Supreme Court issue. And, oy vey, Jill Stein. I know people who voted for her "because of Hilary" who couldn't see past naïve ideology about the vote in the 21st century and put a lens on the danger of TFG.

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Yep! For me, the Jill Stein and Gary what’s his name voters are in the same class as those who voted for Trump in 2020. Really. Should have known better.

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The ones I know who did vote for Stein are sorry they did so, but *really*? What did you expect? Voting in the 21st century is not about your conscience, it is strategic. So you don't like Biden. That's fine, but what about the other candidates? Put them on balance, weigh, and vote for who will do the least damage and who might move the country forward.

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Hind sight... but I watch Hilary fart from across the Mississippi River when she was the First Lady of Arkansas, those two were quite a pair, they both were exceptionally smart individuals but they aggravated many people.with

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Sorry my fingers do there own thing at times. Hilary sadly got on many people’s nerves, but our indecisions cost Hillary and got us Donald Trump. It will take years to get rid of the utter corrupt madness, arrogance, stupidity of his one term. We sat while and watched while Leo Lenard/Federalist Society helped him stack our Courts, which has done unbelievable damage for years to come. Finally yes I’m a Senior.

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Some of the Boomers are still very active, myself included.

We are the consistent voters, we simply use our voices rather our feet these days.😘

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Thank you once again for your excellent analysis.

In addition to the democratic turnout that you mention, evangelical turnout for the GOP declined during the midterms. Some evangelicals felt that with the Dobbs decision they had gotten what they wanted. Others felt that the GOP was not continuing to push hard enough to make abortion illegal nationwide. Of course, that put the GOP in a bind because the right to an abortion is the single biggest reason for high democratic turn out, and continuing to be very vocally anti-abortion does not turn out well for Republican candidates.

In order to get evangelicals back to the polls, the GOP is trying to hype other culture wars issues to take the place of abortion. Front and center is LGBTQ and transgender rights.

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Jay, can you next tackle multiple voter suppression laws in red states targeting college students and racial strongholds? How can we effectively blunt their impact? Thanks!!

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author

There are several aspects to their voter suppression efforts. Some of them are already under court review. As things start to shake out, I will come back around to these. It’s my experience, though, that efforts to suppress the youth and minority votes often backfire badly. I hope that happens here, even if we can’t undo them in the courts.

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Thank you, Jay! I rely on your astute analysis, and I really appreciate your openness.

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They are trying very hard in Ohio on the local and state level to exclude students, especially in critical local elections.

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I've been seeing R state legislatures banning college ID's as valid for voting etc. For real??!! Haven't seen a "big picture" analysis yet that is Jay's specialty.

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Victory is nigh.....as long as we can contain those addled "chaos monkeys," and prevent them from rendering the spoils only so much toxic sludge'd earth.

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This is good news, but I'm projecting a bit, hopefully optimistically. The key to 2024, which Jay already implies are the women Millennials and Gen Z voters who live in the six or seven swing states. We know which ones they are. If they are one-issue voters (we know what that is, I'm fine with it) or even more enlightened on every pressing issue (from immigration to the war in Ukraine), that's even better. We need them to come out in droves. We need the equivalent of David Axelrod and David Plouffe (remember them? they got Barack to the gate and to the finish line) to put their shoulders to the wheel when it's crunch time. I'm a little less nervous. I predict that DeSantis will not run, and that the fat man will be doing rallies under a few more indictments.

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DeSantis just said he will enter the race next week.

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Good luck with his fundraising. Having been in politics I can tell you this guy cannot hit or field. He's terrible in a small setting (fundraising and getting the big checks). We already know he can't command a large audience. It's probably a warmup for 2028. I'm surprised.

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He’s already got $110 million according to news reports as of the end of April...OTOH, money isn’t everything.

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Does he have to resign as Governor when he announces?

I thought that was the case, but hadn't heard any mention of it for a while. I remember reading he was going to try to change the law so he didn't have to, but didn't hear what happened with that either.

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My understanding is that desantis has changed the FL law that required a sitting Governor to resign if running for President. I don’t believe he stands a chance in a presidential race, and if he does run it will hopefully expose him to the Floridians who have voted for him.

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This is indeed great news! But we need more in 2024 up and down the ballot to end Trumpism.

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I think it will take more than one shattering election loss…

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May 18, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

Thanks Jay, as always, for your awesome breakdown!

I’m curious to see if/how the upcoming rulings on abortion medication as well as other new frontiers (ending no-fault divorce, red state legislatures taking over their blue cities) affect the upcoming elections at the more micro level. We’ve had some great results this week that hopefully continue to trend out way in places we thought were done for. Also: (dis)honorable mention of the deep corruption of the Supreme Court that just keeps being unveiled more and more—that is definitely getting attention as well.

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IMO, if that kangaroo court in Texas rules against mifepristone, and bases that ruling on the 1873 Comstock law, one of the biggest backlashes we have seen for years will happen in 2024. Like Dobbs being based on faulty (VERY faulty) history, this one is, too. I'm involved in an intense research project on Victoria Woodhull, who, with her sister and husband, were the test case for that vile Comstock; she got off on a technicality, but was bankrupted in the fight.

For a circuit court of three judges to presume **scientific** knowledge, as Alito did with **history** in Dobbs, is absolutely absurd. A JD does not grant all knowledge, and the presumption that it does is astounding.

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May 18, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

So what I don't understand is why a chart that is meant to show the progress Dems are making even has a "far right column". :)

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Hope is always important and Jay you give me hope!

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Oh Jay you just made my day. Thank you!!

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[zombie voice] MMMMMM, DATA! Seriously, this is great - thank you for the numbers and the breakdown. I am still trying to figure out what the GOP and the SCOTUS were thinking with the Dobbs decision. Did they REALLY think that was going to turn out well for them? I mean - considering that, after Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973, it's been one onslaught after another against women's reproductive health, especially during Republican administrations. SURELY they knew this. SURELY. And once Roe v. Wade was overturned, the already angry women got even angrier and decided they'd REALLY had enough.

Also, have you noticed how SCOTUS had upheld the Illinois assault weapons ban? I thought for sure they were going to sink it. But no! They let it stand. Now I think - this is the combined result from the public outcry following the Dobbs decision AND all the scandals, especially for Justice Thomas. The SCOTUS knows their credibility at the moment is far from fabulous and that the public will start demanding of the President to stack the court and swing the balance back to some kind of sanity.

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Re the Illinois assault weapons ban, SCOTUS let it stand For Now while the lower court continues consideration.

Excerpt: "The court denied a request by the National Association for Gun Rights and a firearms retailer for an injunction blocking enforcement of the state law and a similar ban enacted by another Chicago suburb, Naperville, while a legal challenge to the measures proceeds. No justice publicly dissented from the decision."

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-declines-block-illinois-assault-weapons-ban-2023-05-17/

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Yummy. I love data, especially in the form of charts & graphs. #GraphGeek #Facts Yay!

🌞🌞🌞 😃👊🖖

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I also enjoy * Opinionated VennDiagrams * - like the ones posted by individuals re how they perceive the nature of certain politicians. A picture is worth ....

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Outstanding! Thank you Jay!

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I have no faith in any of these polls. And given they are saying the number for people over 65 is less than 50% is BS. I know most of my fellow seniors, especially Democrats would crawl to the polls, and many vote my mail where they can. I don't need these numbers to tell me the younger generation of voters are getting more involved 1. yes, there is the abortion issue, but 2. they have spent much of their lives wondering if going to school would mean their funeral next week, 3, and when politicians and the rest of us would stop putting band-aids on the gun issue and stop lying about the 2nd Amendment. 4.They are listening less and even avoiding religions (great news). 5. They see the corruption and are young enough and smart enough to know this is not good for them or the country. 6. Climate change is a big issue and they have experienced it all their lives, again waiting for politicians, corporations and the rest of us to get serious about doing something and doing it now, not 2030, or 2050, but now. I am heading into my 8th decade, and I support them 100% and will get out there with them and fight for change NOW.

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