This shouldn’t be remotely close. No matter the outcome of the election, that half the voters in the country would even consider voting for such a vile and failed human being as Donald Trump paints an ugly portrait of America in the twenty-first century. How we as a people could have sunk so low will keep historians busy for a very long time. I am an old man and I will be fine. But quite obviously, my generation has failed our country and diminished its future, and I feel sorrow for our young people because of it. What a damn shame. What a betrayal.
And what exactly happened to that promised “Age of Aquarius,” anyway?
My sentiments exactly. Just so damn tired of hearing people say "Harris is far worse than TFG". WTF are they listening to? Do they hear him speak? Did they not watch J6 unfold before their eyes? It's baffles me to the point of anger
I feel that same exact way, Pam. I also remember watching J6 unfold, like you did, live, before my unbelieving eyes. Now the instigator of all of it wants to be president of the country he tried to steal the election from in order to avoid jail. There are also people (elon musk, putin) who see a unique opportunity to use a powerful and impressionable idiot sitting in our oval office for their own purposes. To them he's a gift. In every way possible he's demonstrated he's a consistent loser.
I hope when the smoke clears from all the election antics, we have a President Harris in our Oval Office and an incarcerated trump who spends his time attending an ever growing list of criminal and civil trials.
The only 'power' Trump has is the power to influence the potential mob and individual deranged folks who think it's fine to threaten people and their families. I really can't see any other kind of power he has.
2 people on one of my friend's FB posts there telling us how wonderful TFG is, how he never called for violence on J6, how he didn't mock a disabled man- basically he has never done any of the bad things we've witnessed him do. When I brought up the 1800+ pages of evidence of treason that Jack Smith has one of them basically called him (and me) deplorable and that the "evidence" is "my opinion". I honestly just don't get the heads stuck so far in the sand that they think a reputable prosecutor is deplorable and an already convicted felon and sexual abuser is some sort of savior. I know there is no help for these people, it just baffles me that they exist and can somehow function in society
Even worse when you see a Hispanic woman say her relatives in the country that don't vote for Trump deserve to be deported. WTF? She doesn't realize that she will be with them.
Didn't see that one but it's consistent with current resident Nicaraguans who live near Doral, FL agreeing with trump in several of his 2024 rallies there, that other Nicaraguans trying to migrate into the US, just like they did to escape Ortega's repressive regime, are bad people. I really thought they'd come out against him in support of their fellow countrymen. Nope.
I'm angry every day about these idiots. It's beyond imagination how far backwards the US slide. Did we ever advance? Yes, I sure felt we did. We've lost do much. We are on the razors edge of fascism.
It's a cult Pam, pure & simple. It's our job to defeat that cult! I have two sayings I abide by : Keep calm & campaign on & NEVER let the bastards wear you down !
What scares the living daylights out of me is Trump wins; after inauguration the R’s declare 25th amendment and we are stuck with proud Project 2025 fore-ward writing Vance as prez.
I totally agree with you, David, wondering all the time and stupefied about how an election between a well documented lawless person who has cheated on everything he's ever said or done and up until last year had no consequences for very clearly wrong actions and an intelligent, well spoken person with proven integrity and ability. I heard yesterday, I think it was MSNBC, that one young trump voter was asked why they were voting for him and they said because "he's funny and entertaining". I have a suggestion, if this is your criteria, then you should do a write in for "Barney" or "Big Bird".
The wounds of the 60s never really closed. The counterculture was a minority that moved the needle in one way, but the rage and disaffection over the defeat in Vietnam and cracking open of racial barriers to housing and education only intensified.
Thanks for your interpretation of the post-Age of Aquarious era. Its something that has puzzled me for decades, ever since Reagan sadly roared into the White House. Your explanation helps me to understand what may have happened to some of the idealism of the 1970's.
The counterculture itself is something that a significant part of the population was reacting against in the 1960s. Straight laced middle-class parents were terrified that their children were being lured into a drug culture world awash in leftist politics with no practical ideas for earning a living. Richard Nixon and his administration falsified a great deal of information about at least some of the drugs, classifying them as schedule one, and then associated them with black Americans and Eddie war protesters as an excuse to arrest them.
I think that many of us have retained our idealism from that era, late '60s to early '70s. I imagine that some of us have improved and intensified our thinking about the best path forward. It's not as easy to spot fellow-travelers on the street as it was in the old days. But my spirit is often uplifted when I read the comments here, and with Joyce, and Heather, and others, and recognize the writing of an old hand from the glory days.
Some years back I read a Paul McCartney "autobiography" called "Many Years from Now." Something he said in that book has always stuck with me. He said that to him, the 60s still feels like the future. Our hopes then for a population with an expanded consciousness, for environmental protections, better education, a social safety net, an end to war, and participation in the arts produced a boundless sense of possibility back then that has burnt down to smoking ash.
I'm an astrology hobbyist, so I love this question. I actually believe we are just entering the age of Aquarius. Here's why (google search):
- Pluto will re-enter Aquarius on January 20, 2024 and remain there until March 8, 2043:
- January 20, 2024–September 1, 2024: Pluto will be in Aquarius, and will briefly retrograde back into Capricorn to tie up loose ends.
- November 19, 2024–March 8, 2043: Pluto will remain in Aquarius.
- Pluto's transit through Aquarius is expected to bring about transformation, personal growth, and social change:
- Technological advancements: Pluto in Aquarius may lead to new technologies, such as flying cars.
- Climate crises: Pluto in Aquarius may lead to climate crises.
- Social shifts: Pluto in Aquarius may lead to social shifts and the collapse of old paradigms.
- Collective action: Pluto in Aquarius may empower the masses to organize and disrupt systems that have failed them.
- Creativity: Pluto in Aquarius may bring forth new dimensions of creativity.
- Pluto's transit through Aquarius is significant because it's the first time in over 200 years that Pluto has been in Aquarius. The last time Pluto was in Aquarius was between 1777 and 1798, which coincided with the French and American revolutions.
I agree! The orange blight caused so much misery during the COVID-19 pandemic. He didn't know what he was doing. He didn't even try to do keep us safe during the pandemic. Now we have horrific storm damage from two hurricanes.
A million Americans died during COVID-19. He's no more prepared to handle our current emergencies than he was to manage COVID-19.
His words, his deeds should prove to anyone with a shred of intelligence or sense that the orange blight is unfit to be called human, much less lead our country.
Can you imagine him telling world leaders another dick antidote???
Please, please if you haven't already voted, vote NOW. Our lives and our Democracy depends on YOUR vote for Kamala Harris and Democrats down your ballot.
I voted for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and Democrats all down my ballot on October 16th, in Colorado.
Early Gen X here and I'm actually more hopeful. There are many things on our side including demographics. I think that MAGA is a death knell, not necessarily of the almost half of the voting public that has been brainwashed into thinking that centimillionaires, billionaires, and giant corporations have their best interests at heart. But of the (primarily white) amoral patriarchy, buttressed by the evangelical movement, who have been used to calling the shots at almost every stage in American history and moreso since the Reagan era. I think that as the old guard of both the GOP and Democratic Party fade into irrelevance, government will become younger and more vibrant. The work that Biden and Harris have reignited, growing the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, will continue because the almost half of the US population that is under age 34 will see improvements in their lives, largely coming from the government and private-public partnerships. The biggest wildcard I see right now is AI but I am optimistic that it will be more useful and democratizing in its early years, like the Internet, rather than deleterious. Beyond that is anyone's guess.
It’s ridiculous to blame your generation (mine, too) for “failing our country.” I may be wrong, but if you’re a Baby Boomer, Harris and Walz are, too (both born at the very end, 1964). Most of us BBs aren’t to blame for what our presidents and other leaders here have or haven’t done during our lifetimes (and many of us marched for various good causes when we were young). And there are plenty of young and middle-aged people voting for Trump.
"And what exactly happened to that promised “Age of Aquarius,” anyway?"
Apparently, a whole bunch of us decided we'd rather be rich than save the world. And then decided "Well, I'd rather stay rich, so I don't wanna pay taxes. So I'll just vote Republican. They'll keep my taxes low, and they don't seem to want to make it hard for me to get richer."
And the water-bearer's pitcher emptied, and then we got old.
I also talk to lot of over-65 (eligible for VBM here in TX) Dem voters who 1) took COVID seriously in 2020 and voted by mail, but 2) have reversed to NOT voting by mail but rather voting in person early, not because of doubt in the vote by mail system but rather lack of confidence in USPS. My husband and I are in that group--we have trust in the election system but not in 1) USPS and 2) not in our state's commitment to ensuring access to voting. I'm sad to say that, because I do admire our (R) SOS and our county elections administrators, but our state government is on a mission to squelch voting.
As an expat from N.C., I could vote electronically, which I did. My ballot has been received and is in good order to be counted when the time comes. Now of course, republicans want to stop any kind of overseas voting which not only would disenfranchise others like me but all of our military members as well.
By the way, I know a lot of people have registered as Unaffiliated. How do those numbers figure into these poll results?
I've voted early in person here in Georgia because I don't trust the mail and I don't want to risk some catastrophe on election day that could keep me from voting.
I’m in Escambia County, FL. I sent my VBM on Oct 4th. I called the elections office on the 11th because it wasn’t recorded as received. 1 hr later it was finally recorded as received (did my lengthy call help?). Now it’s the 21st and my vote hasn’t been counted yet. Early voting has started. This is pathetic. I guess I need to call again. Where is my ballot????
No. If you read the comment directly above, she lives in FL and her vote was counted within 48hrs. You can Google it. FL is one of the earliest reporting states because all early votes are counted before Election Day. All Floridians can track their vote so I highly encourage everyone in FL to track their vote.
Recorded as received, but has NOT been counted yet. "1 hr later it was finally recorded as received... Now it’s the 21st and my vote hasn’t been counted yet."
I live in IL. I received a text from the County that my mail in ballot was on the way. A few days after I mailed it, I received another text telling me it had been received and will be counted when early voting opened up. Nifty
I also know someone who prefers to vote in person because their polling place is at a school, and they see it as part of their civic duty to model this behavior for the kids.
From across the pond here. My sister used to take the kids with her to the school (our polling station) when voting so they would learn how the process works. Since moving in with her and the kids, it's easier for me to use mail in voting. When I leave for the post box I always shout "I'm off to do my voting!" as I leave the house. Quite often one of them will question what's going on, so another opportunity to instil civic duty.
My mom did that with me when I was very young. Then I loudly announced the name of the City Council candidate for whom she was voting, and she had to do some fast talking to avoid getting thrown out.
I always vote early in person, in Floriduh I don’t trust anyone but myself to feed the ballot into the machine, even though my county is very well run.
I'm not gonna trust an outfit run by Louis DeJoy to deliver my ballot. I am not suggesting he'll come up with some cockamamie way to suppress Dem votes. I just think he's incompetent. The other day there was a story from a legit Chicago (sorry, I don't remember which one but I don't read Facebook for news,so it was either the Sun Times, Tribune, or possibly Block Club), about a pile of completed ballots found in a sewer or some such. The person who found them turned them in, but not before reporting the incident to the press.
Thank you for that update. My only knowledge was from the earliest reports. That's good to know. Obviously it's not good that people snatched them out of mailboxes, but that's better than a lot of alternative reasons. That's more of a one-off thing.
Is the livestream available for all, or just paid subscribers? I'm a paid subscriber to this stack, but I noticed some confusion in the comments regarding yesterday's announcement about the livestream, so this is a more general question for everyone else's sake.
Thanks for this early look. It pains me when I see things like, "men favor Trump." Especially given all the information they now have about him.
You aren't kidding - it pains me when I see white people favor trump... and those over 65 do. I was interested to note when Mr. Hubbell went down the Mississippi river and met with groups of readers, in almost every case the photos showed older white people... and heavily women. Those were all Kamala voters.
Is there any indication, even purely anecdotal, that Trump's deteriorating mental state is discouraging Republican votes? The poor voter turnout in 2016 really hurt Hilary Clinton, and it was based upon the dislike of her the GOP had managed to foster. I have been looking for some indication that dementia, 34 felony convictions, and the utter nonsense spewing out of his mouth are depressing Trump's supporters. "I ain' drahvin' the F150 forty plus miles to vote this yar. Trump was my man, but he ain' got it upstairs nuhmore."
I just don't think anything trump has said or done, or could ever do or say, including his obviously deteriorating mental condition, will ever have a negative impact on the vast majority of his followers. Although we've seen people leaving his "rallies" early, and many wanting to vote for Nikki Haley, as well as lots of notable Republicans signing public letters of support for Kamala Harris, I agree with Hillary Clinton who said that trump's supporters may need to be deprogrammed as if they were a cult. I'd really like to see like "Frontline" do a thorough special about how people became and stayed trump followers, and what made any of them leave.
I'm not talking about a negative impact on their devotion to Trump, but rather a discouragement that might cost them to skip voting. Trump is currently avidly trying to court young white males, who are a notoriously non-voting group.
Once again, just an amazing amount of important, well laid out information. I read/heard somewhere that Nevada isn't showing up for the early vote like some other states. Dems should start a competition.
I didn’t discuss Nevada because Clark County was late getting out its mail-in ballots, and they are just starting to come in. No sense getting frantic over what could just be a processing delay.
Anecdote from NV: my mom voted early in person on Sunday morning in Las Vegas, and she said the polling place was essentially empty. She figured it was "church and football," so... yanno. Extrapolate from that data point. :)
My personal observation from Nevada. I voted on the first day of early voting in northern Nevada on Saturday. This year my sister (she convinced me) and I decided to cast a physical ballot. because this vote is just too important to leave anything to chance. There was a line when we arrived that snaked around the parking lot, we were in line for about 1 to 1 1/2 hours. There seemed to be more women than men. After voting, the line waiting to vote was about the same length as when we started. Seeing so many people waiting patiently in line to vote on a beautiful fall day filled me with joy.
The WaPo-Schar School poll is the only "good news" poll I've read this morning, as numerous "forecasting" polls have all flipped to tRump, and FWIW, the trend line for Harris has incrementally but steadily moved downward since mid-September. It seems coincidental that tRump's apparent upticking has been in line with his ever-increasing openly fascistic anti-immigrant and "lock them all up" campaigning...I mean, is his dangerous messaging actually persuading a small but significant chunk of voters to lean his way?
Had been optimistic for a while, but what I'm seeing lately is - as they say - reasons for concern...do hope that "early voting" enthusiasm factor follows through with in-person Election Day turnout for our side.
Here’s what Rosenberg reported today: “We saw polls form Emerson, Fox News, Quantas, RMG, and the right-wing firm TIPP's launched a daily tracker, adding 4 more polls. Senate Republicans even joined the party, dropping a favorable national poll, as did ActiVote and Atlas whatever the f—k they are. 538 moved from 2.6 Harris on Wednesday to 1.8 Harris this morning, and many polling averages and forecasters tipped to Trump over the weekend.” It’s disinformation, not truth.
Reread Simon's and Tom Bonier's reporting, and - guess what? - my "needle" has again moved "positive"! The usual Dem heebie- jeebies...can't completely rid myself from given the wholly asymmetric media coverage and highlighting of "the polls".
What is really obvious is the undercounting of the women's vote, in all demographic categories, when compared to men's, and how the business of "young males" of all races and ethnicity "gravitating" toward tRump simply don't recognize that this cohort are very much the "low-propensity" voter bloc, and cannot be counted as a "likely" tRump voter.
Thank you, Jay. I love your steady calm, your intelligent and articulate analysis that always rings true. I appreciate this so much considering what the country is dealing with in this election and beyond. It's priceless.
This. Please keep reminding people - all polls are NOT created equal. Many are partisan AF and do not reflect the electorate as a whole. These are the ones we've been kvetching about lately, but the actual sound methodology polls show we're in pretty darn good shape. Hang on to your sanity, y'all and VOTE and see to it your friends do the same, and we'll be fine.
I'm looking at the Decision Desk tracker, which today shows tRump with a 52% chance of winning...a week or two ago, it was Harris at 52%. Decision Desk is quite reliable, but perhaps influenced by variables much discussed by you, Rosenberg/Bonier et al.
Most of the "flipped to Trump polls" are junk right wing pollsters. The aggregators do not do a good job of weeding these polls out. This is the same "red wave" narrative we saw in 2022. Their goal is to discourage Dem voters. It's all the GOP has left at this point. Polls generally are no longer useful with so many actual votes already cast.
I love your work, Jay, and thank you for it. As I read this, though, my anxiety went sky high so I’m going to stay away from speculation between now and the election. At this point for me, all there is to do is keep working to get the vote out, counter all the lying with as much truth as we can get out there, vote ourselves and, if it’s up your alley, pray.
What I don't understand are Haley voters who, like her, are "in talks (in their heads) with Trump." Haley's order of importance is #1 herself, #2 her career/party, #3 her country and Constitution. IOW, a McConnell.
Unlike Liz Cheney, who acts, not just talks, to warn us that our democracy and freedom are in danger. How many of us have taken an actual oath to preserve our Constitutional way of life -- and then done it?
I have a question about gen x turning towards trump. I’m gen x and almost all of my fellow gen x friends, family, neighbors, all across the country are actively in the Harris camp. Some of this might be because a lot of us grew up in nyc (with an ingrained trump hatred) but I really feel like the independence that was required of us growing up and the general distrust of authority that my generation has would automatically disqualify anyone who took away our rights, our autonomy, etc. how can gen x be voting for TFG? I can’t even begin to imagine that on more than an outliers scale.
My opinion, it was a generalization that wasn't called for and should be retracted. I was so mad after that statement that I couldn't finish reading the rest of the article. This is how people get disenfranchised. I'm still mad about it. Many of the FB groups I'm in and personal gen X friends I have detest Rump and to have someone in Jay's position say we support him... it's infuriating.
The Musk scheme is illegal. On Joyce Vance Substack, Civil Discourse, she quoted UCLA Law Professor Rick Hassan. He’s a campaign finance and election integrity specialist. It’s 52 USC 10307. In no way am I an attorney. I just hope and pray someone at DOJ is working on the indictment. It’s illegal in PA also. PA has a Democrat for Attorney General.
Some lawyer needs to speak to whoever is being paid for the domain registered by any site putting the fake Harris Walz "sites" up. Being held responsible for hosting an illegal site might get it taken down faster than anything working through the courts. Then go after them in the courts. Remove then punish to discourage copies.
My husband and I voted early in Ohio on Oct. 9th (which was the second day). I saw recently that early returns in Ohio favor Republicans not Democrats, which is nor surprising given the extreme gerrymandering in the state, but still disheartening if true. Waiting for the next two weeks is going to be tough.
Yeah, I know. I'm just hoping that Sherrod Brown and Marcy Kaptur get re-elected. It would be great if Vance drags Trump down, as most people I know hate him, but probably won't happen.
I'm interested in the "40% turnout in Detroit" stat- is that Detroit proper or Wayne county? Do we know? Just wondering because I've done some work in one of the Harris offices (door knocking) and the young woman (very young, very determined awesome person) gave a stat of us needing 35% of the voters in Detroit proper to vote. She said we had 25% show in 2016 and 35% show in 2020. Wayne county is the biggest voter wise in the state (1,462,639) and Detroit being the biggest (515,659) and bluest part of our county. I was really just wondering if somehow we've hit our 35% "Detroit proper" which would be a very good sign. Though honestly I'm trying to not get my hopes up while also trying to curb my anxiety over this. I feel good then run into huge areas of TFG signs. Deep breaths!
As for Wayne County, the Dems have an issue with Arab American voters, once a reliable Dem bloc but currently feeling betrayed by this administration over Gaza. The Arab American mayor of Hamtramck publicly endorsed Trump. Inexplicable, I know, but he did. My guess is that many of those folks will sit this one out as punishment for the betrayal.
Currently I have two concerns. First, Musk paying people $1,000,000 to vote for Trump. How is that even legal and can DOJ do something about it.
Secondly, we all have witnessed the deterioration of Trump and the mainstream media is finally getting their crap together and reporting it. That being said, I am very alarmed at the possibility Trump wins, the 25th amendment is implemented and now we have Project 2025’s biggest advocate as president.
This post reminds me of my days running large-scale employee giving campaigns. We'd watch the numbers every day, diving deep into the data looking for trends and patterns. Mostly it just ratcheted up the tension because on hot days you'd love the velocity and think you'd beat your goals, then the next day it would cool off and you'd go cynical. Occasionally, VERY occasionally, there'd be something actionable in the data. For the most part, though, any "conclusions" we tried to draw from the early days was just a nominally better educated guess than our earlier educated guesses.
This shouldn’t be remotely close. No matter the outcome of the election, that half the voters in the country would even consider voting for such a vile and failed human being as Donald Trump paints an ugly portrait of America in the twenty-first century. How we as a people could have sunk so low will keep historians busy for a very long time. I am an old man and I will be fine. But quite obviously, my generation has failed our country and diminished its future, and I feel sorrow for our young people because of it. What a damn shame. What a betrayal.
And what exactly happened to that promised “Age of Aquarius,” anyway?
My sentiments exactly. Just so damn tired of hearing people say "Harris is far worse than TFG". WTF are they listening to? Do they hear him speak? Did they not watch J6 unfold before their eyes? It's baffles me to the point of anger
I feel that same exact way, Pam. I also remember watching J6 unfold, like you did, live, before my unbelieving eyes. Now the instigator of all of it wants to be president of the country he tried to steal the election from in order to avoid jail. There are also people (elon musk, putin) who see a unique opportunity to use a powerful and impressionable idiot sitting in our oval office for their own purposes. To them he's a gift. In every way possible he's demonstrated he's a consistent loser.
I hope when the smoke clears from all the election antics, we have a President Harris in our Oval Office and an incarcerated trump who spends his time attending an ever growing list of criminal and civil trials.
The only 'power' Trump has is the power to influence the potential mob and individual deranged folks who think it's fine to threaten people and their families. I really can't see any other kind of power he has.
AMEN
2 people on one of my friend's FB posts there telling us how wonderful TFG is, how he never called for violence on J6, how he didn't mock a disabled man- basically he has never done any of the bad things we've witnessed him do. When I brought up the 1800+ pages of evidence of treason that Jack Smith has one of them basically called him (and me) deplorable and that the "evidence" is "my opinion". I honestly just don't get the heads stuck so far in the sand that they think a reputable prosecutor is deplorable and an already convicted felon and sexual abuser is some sort of savior. I know there is no help for these people, it just baffles me that they exist and can somehow function in society
Even worse when you see a Hispanic woman say her relatives in the country that don't vote for Trump deserve to be deported. WTF? She doesn't realize that she will be with them.
Doesn't she realize a vote for him IS a vote for their deportation??
Right? Stephen Miller has come right out and said they plan to "de-naturalize" and then deport those already here who HAVE BECOME CITIZENS.
He asked that, her reply was "that's okay, they can return when they apply for entry the legal way. " I have no idea how she entered the country.
They just don't get it
Didn't see that one but it's consistent with current resident Nicaraguans who live near Doral, FL agreeing with trump in several of his 2024 rallies there, that other Nicaraguans trying to migrate into the US, just like they did to escape Ortega's repressive regime, are bad people. I really thought they'd come out against him in support of their fellow countrymen. Nope.
but they somehow think that he won't deport them. Even though he's said he will deport them even if they are here legally.
It baffles me to the point of white-hot, boiling rage.
ME TOO! My kids tell me to stop with what I say online but I can't- I see this stuff and then I literally see red. My God we can't re-elect him!
I'm angry every day about these idiots. It's beyond imagination how far backwards the US slide. Did we ever advance? Yes, I sure felt we did. We've lost do much. We are on the razors edge of fascism.
Who will be the first to suggest dress codes for women?
Pretty sure it's outlined already in Project 2025 manifesto.
It's a cult Pam, pure & simple. It's our job to defeat that cult! I have two sayings I abide by : Keep calm & campaign on & NEVER let the bastards wear you down !
What scares the living daylights out of me is Trump wins; after inauguration the R’s declare 25th amendment and we are stuck with proud Project 2025 fore-ward writing Vance as prez.
That's the iceberg we are trying not to hit.
I totally agree with you, David, wondering all the time and stupefied about how an election between a well documented lawless person who has cheated on everything he's ever said or done and up until last year had no consequences for very clearly wrong actions and an intelligent, well spoken person with proven integrity and ability. I heard yesterday, I think it was MSNBC, that one young trump voter was asked why they were voting for him and they said because "he's funny and entertaining". I have a suggestion, if this is your criteria, then you should do a write in for "Barney" or "Big Bird".
Or Jon Stewart.
The wounds of the 60s never really closed. The counterculture was a minority that moved the needle in one way, but the rage and disaffection over the defeat in Vietnam and cracking open of racial barriers to housing and education only intensified.
Thanks for your interpretation of the post-Age of Aquarious era. Its something that has puzzled me for decades, ever since Reagan sadly roared into the White House. Your explanation helps me to understand what may have happened to some of the idealism of the 1970's.
The counterculture itself is something that a significant part of the population was reacting against in the 1960s. Straight laced middle-class parents were terrified that their children were being lured into a drug culture world awash in leftist politics with no practical ideas for earning a living. Richard Nixon and his administration falsified a great deal of information about at least some of the drugs, classifying them as schedule one, and then associated them with black Americans and Eddie war protesters as an excuse to arrest them.
I think that many of us have retained our idealism from that era, late '60s to early '70s. I imagine that some of us have improved and intensified our thinking about the best path forward. It's not as easy to spot fellow-travelers on the street as it was in the old days. But my spirit is often uplifted when I read the comments here, and with Joyce, and Heather, and others, and recognize the writing of an old hand from the glory days.
Some years back I read a Paul McCartney "autobiography" called "Many Years from Now." Something he said in that book has always stuck with me. He said that to him, the 60s still feels like the future. Our hopes then for a population with an expanded consciousness, for environmental protections, better education, a social safety net, an end to war, and participation in the arts produced a boundless sense of possibility back then that has burnt down to smoking ash.
I'm an astrology hobbyist, so I love this question. I actually believe we are just entering the age of Aquarius. Here's why (google search):
- Pluto will re-enter Aquarius on January 20, 2024 and remain there until March 8, 2043:
- January 20, 2024–September 1, 2024: Pluto will be in Aquarius, and will briefly retrograde back into Capricorn to tie up loose ends.
- November 19, 2024–March 8, 2043: Pluto will remain in Aquarius.
- Pluto's transit through Aquarius is expected to bring about transformation, personal growth, and social change:
- Technological advancements: Pluto in Aquarius may lead to new technologies, such as flying cars.
- Climate crises: Pluto in Aquarius may lead to climate crises.
- Social shifts: Pluto in Aquarius may lead to social shifts and the collapse of old paradigms.
- Collective action: Pluto in Aquarius may empower the masses to organize and disrupt systems that have failed them.
- Creativity: Pluto in Aquarius may bring forth new dimensions of creativity.
- Pluto's transit through Aquarius is significant because it's the first time in over 200 years that Pluto has been in Aquarius. The last time Pluto was in Aquarius was between 1777 and 1798, which coincided with the French and American revolutions.
I agree! The orange blight caused so much misery during the COVID-19 pandemic. He didn't know what he was doing. He didn't even try to do keep us safe during the pandemic. Now we have horrific storm damage from two hurricanes.
A million Americans died during COVID-19. He's no more prepared to handle our current emergencies than he was to manage COVID-19.
His words, his deeds should prove to anyone with a shred of intelligence or sense that the orange blight is unfit to be called human, much less lead our country.
Can you imagine him telling world leaders another dick antidote???
Please, please if you haven't already voted, vote NOW. Our lives and our Democracy depends on YOUR vote for Kamala Harris and Democrats down your ballot.
I voted for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and Democrats all down my ballot on October 16th, in Colorado.
Amen, amen, amen. I've already apologized to the grandkids for the dimwitted cussedness of 40-50% of so called adults.
The answers lie in manipulation, mass psychology, and the adherence to Big Lies like White Supremacy. More here - MOSF 19.15: TrumpVance and their Proposed Advance of the Plantation of Lies and Weirdness https://eastwindezine.com/mosf-19-15-trumpvance-and-their-proposed-advance-of-the-plantation-of-lies-and-weirdness/
Early Gen X here and I'm actually more hopeful. There are many things on our side including demographics. I think that MAGA is a death knell, not necessarily of the almost half of the voting public that has been brainwashed into thinking that centimillionaires, billionaires, and giant corporations have their best interests at heart. But of the (primarily white) amoral patriarchy, buttressed by the evangelical movement, who have been used to calling the shots at almost every stage in American history and moreso since the Reagan era. I think that as the old guard of both the GOP and Democratic Party fade into irrelevance, government will become younger and more vibrant. The work that Biden and Harris have reignited, growing the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, will continue because the almost half of the US population that is under age 34 will see improvements in their lives, largely coming from the government and private-public partnerships. The biggest wildcard I see right now is AI but I am optimistic that it will be more useful and democratizing in its early years, like the Internet, rather than deleterious. Beyond that is anyone's guess.
It’s ridiculous to blame your generation (mine, too) for “failing our country.” I may be wrong, but if you’re a Baby Boomer, Harris and Walz are, too (both born at the very end, 1964). Most of us BBs aren’t to blame for what our presidents and other leaders here have or haven’t done during our lifetimes (and many of us marched for various good causes when we were young). And there are plenty of young and middle-aged people voting for Trump.
"And what exactly happened to that promised “Age of Aquarius,” anyway?"
Apparently, a whole bunch of us decided we'd rather be rich than save the world. And then decided "Well, I'd rather stay rich, so I don't wanna pay taxes. So I'll just vote Republican. They'll keep my taxes low, and they don't seem to want to make it hard for me to get richer."
And the water-bearer's pitcher emptied, and then we got old.
Correction: I said she would need 15 E.C. Votes to win but I meant 10. It’s been corrected.
I also talk to lot of over-65 (eligible for VBM here in TX) Dem voters who 1) took COVID seriously in 2020 and voted by mail, but 2) have reversed to NOT voting by mail but rather voting in person early, not because of doubt in the vote by mail system but rather lack of confidence in USPS. My husband and I are in that group--we have trust in the election system but not in 1) USPS and 2) not in our state's commitment to ensuring access to voting. I'm sad to say that, because I do admire our (R) SOS and our county elections administrators, but our state government is on a mission to squelch voting.
I’ve heard anecdotally a lot about this.
As an expat from N.C., I could vote electronically, which I did. My ballot has been received and is in good order to be counted when the time comes. Now of course, republicans want to stop any kind of overseas voting which not only would disenfranchise others like me but all of our military members as well.
By the way, I know a lot of people have registered as Unaffiliated. How do those numbers figure into these poll results?
I've voted early in person here in Georgia because I don't trust the mail and I don't want to risk some catastrophe on election day that could keep me from voting.
4 of us in our household voted by mail here in Florida and 48 hours later we were able to check and all 4 votes were counted. Good luck in Texas!
I’m in Escambia County, FL. I sent my VBM on Oct 4th. I called the elections office on the 11th because it wasn’t recorded as received. 1 hr later it was finally recorded as received (did my lengthy call help?). Now it’s the 21st and my vote hasn’t been counted yet. Early voting has started. This is pathetic. I guess I need to call again. Where is my ballot????
Are you in a state that doesn't count all ballots until Election Day? That might explain it.
No. If you read the comment directly above, she lives in FL and her vote was counted within 48hrs. You can Google it. FL is one of the earliest reporting states because all early votes are counted before Election Day. All Floridians can track their vote so I highly encourage everyone in FL to track their vote.
Recorded as received, but has NOT been counted yet. "1 hr later it was finally recorded as received... Now it’s the 21st and my vote hasn’t been counted yet."
I live in IL. I received a text from the County that my mail in ballot was on the way. A few days after I mailed it, I received another text telling me it had been received and will be counted when early voting opened up. Nifty
I also know someone who prefers to vote in person because their polling place is at a school, and they see it as part of their civic duty to model this behavior for the kids.
From across the pond here. My sister used to take the kids with her to the school (our polling station) when voting so they would learn how the process works. Since moving in with her and the kids, it's easier for me to use mail in voting. When I leave for the post box I always shout "I'm off to do my voting!" as I leave the house. Quite often one of them will question what's going on, so another opportunity to instil civic duty.
My mom did that with me when I was very young. Then I loudly announced the name of the City Council candidate for whom she was voting, and she had to do some fast talking to avoid getting thrown out.
I always vote early in person, in Floriduh I don’t trust anyone but myself to feed the ballot into the machine, even though my county is very well run.
I'm not gonna trust an outfit run by Louis DeJoy to deliver my ballot. I am not suggesting he'll come up with some cockamamie way to suppress Dem votes. I just think he's incompetent. The other day there was a story from a legit Chicago (sorry, I don't remember which one but I don't read Facebook for news,so it was either the Sun Times, Tribune, or possibly Block Club), about a pile of completed ballots found in a sewer or some such. The person who found them turned them in, but not before reporting the incident to the press.
Anyway, it's more fun to vote in person.
There were about 12 found, they think someone had just gone along and taken them out of the people's mailboxes. They hadn't been filled out.
Thank you for that update. My only knowledge was from the earliest reports. That's good to know. Obviously it's not good that people snatched them out of mailboxes, but that's better than a lot of alternative reasons. That's more of a one-off thing.
I drove my mail-in ballot to the county recorder’s office for exactly that reason.
We got our ballots in the mail, then I dropped them off in person to the county courthouse. I didn’t want them to get “lost.”
Is the livestream available for all, or just paid subscribers? I'm a paid subscriber to this stack, but I noticed some confusion in the comments regarding yesterday's announcement about the livestream, so this is a more general question for everyone else's sake.
Thanks for this early look. It pains me when I see things like, "men favor Trump." Especially given all the information they now have about him.
Available to all, as is all my content!
That's what lured me in. It's classy.
You aren't kidding - it pains me when I see white people favor trump... and those over 65 do. I was interested to note when Mr. Hubbell went down the Mississippi river and met with groups of readers, in almost every case the photos showed older white people... and heavily women. Those were all Kamala voters.
Your update and analyses are appreciated.
Is there any indication, even purely anecdotal, that Trump's deteriorating mental state is discouraging Republican votes? The poor voter turnout in 2016 really hurt Hilary Clinton, and it was based upon the dislike of her the GOP had managed to foster. I have been looking for some indication that dementia, 34 felony convictions, and the utter nonsense spewing out of his mouth are depressing Trump's supporters. "I ain' drahvin' the F150 forty plus miles to vote this yar. Trump was my man, but he ain' got it upstairs nuhmore."
I just don't think anything trump has said or done, or could ever do or say, including his obviously deteriorating mental condition, will ever have a negative impact on the vast majority of his followers. Although we've seen people leaving his "rallies" early, and many wanting to vote for Nikki Haley, as well as lots of notable Republicans signing public letters of support for Kamala Harris, I agree with Hillary Clinton who said that trump's supporters may need to be deprogrammed as if they were a cult. I'd really like to see like "Frontline" do a thorough special about how people became and stayed trump followers, and what made any of them leave.
I'm not talking about a negative impact on their devotion to Trump, but rather a discouragement that might cost them to skip voting. Trump is currently avidly trying to court young white males, who are a notoriously non-voting group.
Once again, just an amazing amount of important, well laid out information. I read/heard somewhere that Nevada isn't showing up for the early vote like some other states. Dems should start a competition.
I didn’t discuss Nevada because Clark County was late getting out its mail-in ballots, and they are just starting to come in. No sense getting frantic over what could just be a processing delay.
Good to know. Thanks.
Anecdote from NV: my mom voted early in person on Sunday morning in Las Vegas, and she said the polling place was essentially empty. She figured it was "church and football," so... yanno. Extrapolate from that data point. :)
My personal observation from Nevada. I voted on the first day of early voting in northern Nevada on Saturday. This year my sister (she convinced me) and I decided to cast a physical ballot. because this vote is just too important to leave anything to chance. There was a line when we arrived that snaked around the parking lot, we were in line for about 1 to 1 1/2 hours. There seemed to be more women than men. After voting, the line waiting to vote was about the same length as when we started. Seeing so many people waiting patiently in line to vote on a beautiful fall day filled me with joy.
The WaPo-Schar School poll is the only "good news" poll I've read this morning, as numerous "forecasting" polls have all flipped to tRump, and FWIW, the trend line for Harris has incrementally but steadily moved downward since mid-September. It seems coincidental that tRump's apparent upticking has been in line with his ever-increasing openly fascistic anti-immigrant and "lock them all up" campaigning...I mean, is his dangerous messaging actually persuading a small but significant chunk of voters to lean his way?
Had been optimistic for a while, but what I'm seeing lately is - as they say - reasons for concern...do hope that "early voting" enthusiasm factor follows through with in-person Election Day turnout for our side.
Here’s what Rosenberg reported today: “We saw polls form Emerson, Fox News, Quantas, RMG, and the right-wing firm TIPP's launched a daily tracker, adding 4 more polls. Senate Republicans even joined the party, dropping a favorable national poll, as did ActiVote and Atlas whatever the f—k they are. 538 moved from 2.6 Harris on Wednesday to 1.8 Harris this morning, and many polling averages and forecasters tipped to Trump over the weekend.” It’s disinformation, not truth.
Reread Simon's and Tom Bonier's reporting, and - guess what? - my "needle" has again moved "positive"! The usual Dem heebie- jeebies...can't completely rid myself from given the wholly asymmetric media coverage and highlighting of "the polls".
What is really obvious is the undercounting of the women's vote, in all demographic categories, when compared to men's, and how the business of "young males" of all races and ethnicity "gravitating" toward tRump simply don't recognize that this cohort are very much the "low-propensity" voter bloc, and cannot be counted as a "likely" tRump voter.
"Worry less and do more"....I get it!
When you exclude crappy polls, the trend line for Harris has not shifted appreciably at all.
Thank you, Jay. I love your steady calm, your intelligent and articulate analysis that always rings true. I appreciate this so much considering what the country is dealing with in this election and beyond. It's priceless.
This. Please keep reminding people - all polls are NOT created equal. Many are partisan AF and do not reflect the electorate as a whole. These are the ones we've been kvetching about lately, but the actual sound methodology polls show we're in pretty darn good shape. Hang on to your sanity, y'all and VOTE and see to it your friends do the same, and we'll be fine.
I'm looking at the Decision Desk tracker, which today shows tRump with a 52% chance of winning...a week or two ago, it was Harris at 52%. Decision Desk is quite reliable, but perhaps influenced by variables much discussed by you, Rosenberg/Bonier et al.
Hard to believe that the closer we get and the more wildly he speaks that the trend moves towards him. But here we are seeing this crap
Beware of poll contamination
It’s a suppression tactic—also see Rick Wilson’s substack for more info on this, particularly his “Don’t Drink the Poison” post…
Thank you, Kate for this info. It's appreciated!
You’re welcome!!
Most of the "flipped to Trump polls" are junk right wing pollsters. The aggregators do not do a good job of weeding these polls out. This is the same "red wave" narrative we saw in 2022. Their goal is to discourage Dem voters. It's all the GOP has left at this point. Polls generally are no longer useful with so many actual votes already cast.
I love your work, Jay, and thank you for it. As I read this, though, my anxiety went sky high so I’m going to stay away from speculation between now and the election. At this point for me, all there is to do is keep working to get the vote out, counter all the lying with as much truth as we can get out there, vote ourselves and, if it’s up your alley, pray.
Don't lump all Gen-X into Trumpers please. We're not!
What I don't understand are Haley voters who, like her, are "in talks (in their heads) with Trump." Haley's order of importance is #1 herself, #2 her career/party, #3 her country and Constitution. IOW, a McConnell.
Unlike Liz Cheney, who acts, not just talks, to warn us that our democracy and freedom are in danger. How many of us have taken an actual oath to preserve our Constitutional way of life -- and then done it?
I have a question about gen x turning towards trump. I’m gen x and almost all of my fellow gen x friends, family, neighbors, all across the country are actively in the Harris camp. Some of this might be because a lot of us grew up in nyc (with an ingrained trump hatred) but I really feel like the independence that was required of us growing up and the general distrust of authority that my generation has would automatically disqualify anyone who took away our rights, our autonomy, etc. how can gen x be voting for TFG? I can’t even begin to imagine that on more than an outliers scale.
My opinion, it was a generalization that wasn't called for and should be retracted. I was so mad after that statement that I couldn't finish reading the rest of the article. This is how people get disenfranchised. I'm still mad about it. Many of the FB groups I'm in and personal gen X friends I have detest Rump and to have someone in Jay's position say we support him... it's infuriating.
The Musk scheme is illegal. On Joyce Vance Substack, Civil Discourse, she quoted UCLA Law Professor Rick Hassan. He’s a campaign finance and election integrity specialist. It’s 52 USC 10307. In no way am I an attorney. I just hope and pray someone at DOJ is working on the indictment. It’s illegal in PA also. PA has a Democrat for Attorney General.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for the DoJ to do anything in a timely way.
Some lawyer needs to speak to whoever is being paid for the domain registered by any site putting the fake Harris Walz "sites" up. Being held responsible for hosting an illegal site might get it taken down faster than anything working through the courts. Then go after them in the courts. Remove then punish to discourage copies.
My husband and I voted early in Ohio on Oct. 9th (which was the second day). I saw recently that early returns in Ohio favor Republicans not Democrats, which is nor surprising given the extreme gerrymandering in the state, but still disheartening if true. Waiting for the next two weeks is going to be tough.
Ohio is a red state. I'm sorry. Sherrod is favored to hold, barely, but Trump will certainly win in OH.
I'm very glad to see Sherrod will likely hold his seat.
Yeah, I know. I'm just hoping that Sherrod Brown and Marcy Kaptur get re-elected. It would be great if Vance drags Trump down, as most people I know hate him, but probably won't happen.
I'm interested in the "40% turnout in Detroit" stat- is that Detroit proper or Wayne county? Do we know? Just wondering because I've done some work in one of the Harris offices (door knocking) and the young woman (very young, very determined awesome person) gave a stat of us needing 35% of the voters in Detroit proper to vote. She said we had 25% show in 2016 and 35% show in 2020. Wayne county is the biggest voter wise in the state (1,462,639) and Detroit being the biggest (515,659) and bluest part of our county. I was really just wondering if somehow we've hit our 35% "Detroit proper" which would be a very good sign. Though honestly I'm trying to not get my hopes up while also trying to curb my anxiety over this. I feel good then run into huge areas of TFG signs. Deep breaths!
As for Wayne County, the Dems have an issue with Arab American voters, once a reliable Dem bloc but currently feeling betrayed by this administration over Gaza. The Arab American mayor of Hamtramck publicly endorsed Trump. Inexplicable, I know, but he did. My guess is that many of those folks will sit this one out as punishment for the betrayal.
Well would rather they sit it out than vote for TFG. Tho I have seen "pray for Gaza" etc signs in the same yard as Harris signs.
I'm still very curious about Detroit proper
Currently I have two concerns. First, Musk paying people $1,000,000 to vote for Trump. How is that even legal and can DOJ do something about it.
Secondly, we all have witnessed the deterioration of Trump and the mainstream media is finally getting their crap together and reporting it. That being said, I am very alarmed at the possibility Trump wins, the 25th amendment is implemented and now we have Project 2025’s biggest advocate as president.
These two issues are keeping me awake at night.
This post reminds me of my days running large-scale employee giving campaigns. We'd watch the numbers every day, diving deep into the data looking for trends and patterns. Mostly it just ratcheted up the tension because on hot days you'd love the velocity and think you'd beat your goals, then the next day it would cool off and you'd go cynical. Occasionally, VERY occasionally, there'd be something actionable in the data. For the most part, though, any "conclusions" we tried to draw from the early days was just a nominally better educated guess than our earlier educated guesses.