Things are looking good for Biden. Even GOP congresspeople might be seeing that sticking with Trump is a way to lose.
However, we need to be ready for anti Biden street protests during the convention. I think they are coming and must be handled calmly as they will be intended to divide Democrats and give the election to Trump.
Anti-Biden street protests? Are you talking about Pro-Palestinian marches? The best way to handle them is to invite them in - literally. Give voice to their concerns, and offer real solutions. Any MAGA cult or RFK jr. supporters can just be ignored.
Unless things change dramatically, either Biden or Trump will win the election. The important thing to make the Pro-Palestinians understand is that Trump is not just pro-Israel, he's pro-Netanyahu. By all means they should try to make their voices heard, but Biden is the only one who might listen.
I think they do understand that, but don't care because they already feel they are not being listened to by the Biden administration. Trying to "make" them understand would be counterproductive.
I agree that listening to the protesters makes a lot of sense (and the US should be on the side of protecting innocents (NOT Hamas, but the civilians and especially children)).
Personally, I do not see anything is good until the election won because I’m a student of chaos theory and the butterfly effect. The following is just an example of unintended consequences:
Disease Ecology Butterfly Effect
When their preferred trees to chew on were cut down for the tobacco trade, chimpanzees in Uganda began consuming bat guano instead. Researchers recorded videos in the Budongo Forest Reserve between 2017 and 2019 and observed 839 instances of guano consumption, not only by chimpanzees but also by black-and-white colobus monkeys and red duikers, a type of forest antelope. The guano provides the chimps with essential minerals like sodium, potassium, magnesium and phosphorus that they would normally have gotten from the felled trees.
Why this matters: In addition to essential nutrients, the bat guano contained 27 unique viruses, including a novel coronavirus, the researchers found. Illnesses transmitted from animals to humans, called zoonotic diseases, account for about three quarters of new infectious diseases around the world. Those pathogens have a higher chance of jumping from an animal to a human when people encroach on ecosystems and disrupt relationships among species.
What the experts say: “This is the butterfly effect of infectious disease ecology,” says senior study author Tony Goldberg, a wildlife epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. “Far-flung events like demand for tobacco can have crazy, unintended consequences for disease emergence that follow pathways that we rarely see and can’t predict.”
Why this example? Never relax or we could wind up eating shit because of the Farter-in-Chief.
I'm concerned, still, one juror got on the there who has planned all along to vote NOT guilty. Trump could easily skate away with what he'd call "complete vindication." I am also concerned if he loses, what his base will do. I wonder if anyone has heard chatter on that front?
Juror nullification is always a remote possibility. It can happen, but the DA has done everything reasonable to screen against that kind of person getting on the jury. They would have had to have left no trail of their prior love of 45, for example. As for the MAGA, they aren’t even protesting at the courthouse now. I think they won’t care if Trump is convicted. They’re probably expecting it.
I really REALLY hope so. I have hope, but the selection didn't take weeks like thought it would. Being in a jury is a somber thing. I hope these folks take it very seriously.
That is a misreporting of what that juror reads. The juror said that they read Trump’s posts from Truth Social on the X platform but also many other things like Mueller she Wrote. It sounds a lot like me, in fact!
"Suburban women in particular came out strongly against Trump in 2020 after going for him in 2016. If Trump can’t win those voters back, he will have a steep uphill climb..."
How will he do that? The ladies aren't calling it Roevember for nothing 😍
I am still only cautiously optimistic. And Jay - I would appreciate your comments about if Trump picks a strong 🤷♀️VP candidate such as Younkin, and the consequences it might have on the race. I have been reading a bit about Trump being aware that the military vote is slipping away from him and Trump needs to pick a strong VP candidate with a military background to shore him up. Why the military sticks with him is absolutely beyond me. It is also horrifically frightening as a Gold Star family ☹️ Thanks for the great analysis on the Pennsylvania primary.
Encouraging article and I appreciate your responses.
With all due respect, I think sometimes the vice presidential nominee does affect who people vote for. Some people turned away from John McCain in 2008 because they hated the thought of Sarah Palin becoming president if MCain were to die in office.
There's a real chance Trump would not live through a second term. Youngkin might be attractive to people who are not going to vote for Biden but aren't enthusiastic about Trump.
I'm liking Joe's chances in PA this morning. According to the NYT, with 99% of the vote counted, Nikki Haley, who dropped out over a month ago, has pulled close to 157K republican votes from Trump. If even half of those voters go for Biden in the general, that would come close to Biden's margin of victory from 2020.
Trump's petulant 'we don't need Haley voters' stance is costing him. Bigly. Republicans across the board are underwater with women voters already, Biden has a popular Democratic governor in Josh Shapiro to campaign with and act as a surrogate, along with two popular Democratic senators. AND, Trump's sleazy hush money trial in NYC is reminding people what a lowlife he's been his whole life. Not to mention the incredible burn rate Trump's legal bills are imposing on his campaign and all his various superPACS. The money is going out as fast as it comes in - kind of like Paulie's crew in Goodfellas moving merch through the restaurant they took over before they burned it out.
"If even half of those voters go for Biden in the general..." - they don't even have to hold their noses and vote for Biden. They just have to not vote at all, or simply not cast a vote for POTUS. Which I would be willing to risk a small wager on those options being a non-zero number.
Someone not even in the race got 16.5 %? Ha! I think, and I hope, Trump's personal Titanic has already hit the iceberg and is taking on cold, cold water.
Keep in mind that PA has a critical senate race between Casey and McCormick, who lost out to Oz in the last election in the seat that was taken by Fetterman.
Trump’s narcissism, arrogance, ignorance, and blind stupidity will be his undoing. He can’t imagine anyone would think of him as less than god since he thinks so highly of himself.
Other than the numbers which show a 10% higher vote for Biden from Democrats than those from Republicans for the indicted man in court, Biden received 135,000 more votes than that guy. That’s more reassuring to me.
I live in PA (Pittsburgh) and worked the polls. Yes, we have a closed primary. I had two folks who wanted to vote GOP and could not, since they were registered Democrat. (I found this interesting: who does not know what Party they belong to? I assume they don’t normally vote in the Primaries. When this (or any issue) occurs, they are permitted to vote provisionally, and are offered a form to change their party (for next time) if they wish.
PS, a few folks said they were writing in “Anyone but” and one said he was writing in PENCE 🙄.
While it is still a long way from November, I am more encouraged not by the margins of the votes FOR Biden, but by the margins voting 'other' than Trump. There are people over there who are getting out of the brain fog that the leaders of that movement have induced in the rest of their brethren. It's not spreading quickly "enough" to suit many on our side of the middle, but, for me, anything at all that reflects a willingness to come back towards the tenets of democracy is just peachy keen. We're talking millions of people here, so the increments will be tiny. Like the drops of water through the cracks in a dam, it does not seem like much, but the dam will break. I just want the leadership of OUR SIDE to be ready to accept the influx and be able to process the sheer volume of new voices within our ranks. We cannot afford to make mistakes or tolerate corruption. Not after all of this. Plan accordingly. NOW.
Also a big win for Rep. Summer Lee, who was up against a "moderate" ringer trying to tar her with the - wait for it - "anti-Israel = anti-Semitic" brush, and Pittsburgh voters were having none of it. "Bust up the Squad" is "centrist" Dem flavor of the month, but failing badly to date...yay!
I hope so because I do not have a problem with the squad. They are young, passionate, & committed to moving this country forward.
Shame on some Dems trying to oust them just because they have a conscience & disagree with the massive civilian deaths in Gaza AND the West Bank too. That in no way makes them pro Hamas, nor antisemitic.
“Looking at that number—155,829 registered GOP voters casting what amounts to a protest vote—the Trump Campaign has got to be concerned”
My worry is that although these voters may have cast a protest vote NOW, when it comes to the election conservatives have a way of falling right back in the line. ☹️
We should begin from the premise that MOST of these people could return to the GOP fold. But there are so many of them that if a good percent refuse to vote for Trump, it is something of a death knell given how close the race is expected to be.
If even half of them vote for Biden, and the rest stay home or vote RFKjr, that's enough to nearly cover Biden's margin of victory from 2020. And that was before Dobbs....and Trump's sleazy hush money trial.....
As a Delaware County resident, I got my tail to the polls yesterday to vote for Biden. Despite what the "Women for Haley" rep said, I am not frustrated that Biden is one of the choices, neither are any other Democratic women who I have spoken with.
Things are looking good for Biden. Even GOP congresspeople might be seeing that sticking with Trump is a way to lose.
However, we need to be ready for anti Biden street protests during the convention. I think they are coming and must be handled calmly as they will be intended to divide Democrats and give the election to Trump.
Anti-Biden street protests? Are you talking about Pro-Palestinian marches? The best way to handle them is to invite them in - literally. Give voice to their concerns, and offer real solutions. Any MAGA cult or RFK jr. supporters can just be ignored.
Unless things change dramatically, either Biden or Trump will win the election. The important thing to make the Pro-Palestinians understand is that Trump is not just pro-Israel, he's pro-Netanyahu. By all means they should try to make their voices heard, but Biden is the only one who might listen.
I think they do understand that, but don't care because they already feel they are not being listened to by the Biden administration. Trying to "make" them understand would be counterproductive.
Fair enough, 'make' was probably the wrong word to use.
Wow, well THAT'S going to get you a LOT of new readers!
Please keep your tone civil on this page, thank you and do not threaten or condone violence.
👏👏 Thanks for the quick work on that ban!
In the real world Biden is the best option. Gratuitous personal attacks aren't going to change that.
I agree that listening to the protesters makes a lot of sense (and the US should be on the side of protecting innocents (NOT Hamas, but the civilians and especially children)).
..the cost of lives is long planned , mere casualties of war..the same ol’ song directed by derelicts and dictators . Time to end..
Let not that rope slacken -VOTE BLUE 💙 - hold their feet to the fire !
Nice work Jay🫶
While I like both of these women, you know that won’t happen. I doubt that either of them would accept.
Good luck with that!
Must be nice to be so politically aware as you are; strange that I've never heard of you before.
Report and block!!
Personally, I do not see anything is good until the election won because I’m a student of chaos theory and the butterfly effect. The following is just an example of unintended consequences:
Disease Ecology Butterfly Effect
When their preferred trees to chew on were cut down for the tobacco trade, chimpanzees in Uganda began consuming bat guano instead. Researchers recorded videos in the Budongo Forest Reserve between 2017 and 2019 and observed 839 instances of guano consumption, not only by chimpanzees but also by black-and-white colobus monkeys and red duikers, a type of forest antelope. The guano provides the chimps with essential minerals like sodium, potassium, magnesium and phosphorus that they would normally have gotten from the felled trees.
Why this matters: In addition to essential nutrients, the bat guano contained 27 unique viruses, including a novel coronavirus, the researchers found. Illnesses transmitted from animals to humans, called zoonotic diseases, account for about three quarters of new infectious diseases around the world. Those pathogens have a higher chance of jumping from an animal to a human when people encroach on ecosystems and disrupt relationships among species.
What the experts say: “This is the butterfly effect of infectious disease ecology,” says senior study author Tony Goldberg, a wildlife epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. “Far-flung events like demand for tobacco can have crazy, unintended consequences for disease emergence that follow pathways that we rarely see and can’t predict.”
Why this example? Never relax or we could wind up eating shit because of the Farter-in-Chief.
I'm concerned, still, one juror got on the there who has planned all along to vote NOT guilty. Trump could easily skate away with what he'd call "complete vindication." I am also concerned if he loses, what his base will do. I wonder if anyone has heard chatter on that front?
Juror nullification is always a remote possibility. It can happen, but the DA has done everything reasonable to screen against that kind of person getting on the jury. They would have had to have left no trail of their prior love of 45, for example. As for the MAGA, they aren’t even protesting at the courthouse now. I think they won’t care if Trump is convicted. They’re probably expecting it.
I really REALLY hope so. I have hope, but the selection didn't take weeks like thought it would. Being in a jury is a somber thing. I hope these folks take it very seriously.
Is that the one that said that she got her news from Truth Social?
That is a misreporting of what that juror reads. The juror said that they read Trump’s posts from Truth Social on the X platform but also many other things like Mueller she Wrote. It sounds a lot like me, in fact!
You talking to me?
I love that Nikki, who dropped out, is still taking votes away from her former boss!!
"Suburban women in particular came out strongly against Trump in 2020 after going for him in 2016. If Trump can’t win those voters back, he will have a steep uphill climb..."
How will he do that? The ladies aren't calling it Roevember for nothing 😍
It will be hard to pull off, I agree.
You’re darn right about that. I’m an oldster, but I follow some younger feminists, pro abortion women on TikTok & they have huge followers
Jessica Valenti gets 7000-9000 likes on a new vid in 12 hrs.
I won’t be needing an abortion, but I’m angry & insulted by how women’s lives are being treated as if it just doesn’t even matter if we die.
I think Roevember is massively important.
I hope the word "Roevember" is catching on. It seems like it is.
It is
Nice! :-)
I am still only cautiously optimistic. And Jay - I would appreciate your comments about if Trump picks a strong 🤷♀️VP candidate such as Younkin, and the consequences it might have on the race. I have been reading a bit about Trump being aware that the military vote is slipping away from him and Trump needs to pick a strong VP candidate with a military background to shore him up. Why the military sticks with him is absolutely beyond me. It is also horrifically frightening as a Gold Star family ☹️ Thanks for the great analysis on the Pennsylvania primary.
He will pick who he picks, but people don’t vote based on the VP pick.
Encouraging article and I appreciate your responses.
With all due respect, I think sometimes the vice presidential nominee does affect who people vote for. Some people turned away from John McCain in 2008 because they hated the thought of Sarah Palin becoming president if MCain were to die in office.
There's a real chance Trump would not live through a second term. Youngkin might be attractive to people who are not going to vote for Biden but aren't enthusiastic about Trump.
Good point about a bad VP candidate being a drag on the ticket. I’m not sure a strong VP candidate has as much affect.
Biden should remind active and former military that Cadet Bone Spurs called them “losers and suckers” and wondered, “What was in it for them?”
It’s almost as if being as big a jerk as possible to everyone, everywhere, all the time has some sort of downside. So unfair!
And there he is forced to sit, bound and gagged like he was a Gitmo Bay prisoner---um, hostage. Unable to move freely, bed sores forming on his butt.
And freeeezing!
He could don a sweater for that George Santos look.
He probably wouldn’t be willing to wear those Super Fly glasses though. They might make him look weak.
Or hemorrhoids.
I'm liking Joe's chances in PA this morning. According to the NYT, with 99% of the vote counted, Nikki Haley, who dropped out over a month ago, has pulled close to 157K republican votes from Trump. If even half of those voters go for Biden in the general, that would come close to Biden's margin of victory from 2020.
Trump's petulant 'we don't need Haley voters' stance is costing him. Bigly. Republicans across the board are underwater with women voters already, Biden has a popular Democratic governor in Josh Shapiro to campaign with and act as a surrogate, along with two popular Democratic senators. AND, Trump's sleazy hush money trial in NYC is reminding people what a lowlife he's been his whole life. Not to mention the incredible burn rate Trump's legal bills are imposing on his campaign and all his various superPACS. The money is going out as fast as it comes in - kind of like Paulie's crew in Goodfellas moving merch through the restaurant they took over before they burned it out.
Happy Wednesday, Jay and Co!
"If even half of those voters go for Biden in the general..." - they don't even have to hold their noses and vote for Biden. They just have to not vote at all, or simply not cast a vote for POTUS. Which I would be willing to risk a small wager on those options being a non-zero number.
I agree. My assumption is that half will either not vote or vote for RFKjr since he shares a lot of Trump's conspiratorial thinking.
Someone not even in the race got 16.5 %? Ha! I think, and I hope, Trump's personal Titanic has already hit the iceberg and is taking on cold, cold water.
It was curious to see, for sure.
I am so grateful for your daily insights.
Keep in mind that PA has a critical senate race between Casey and McCormick, who lost out to Oz in the last election in the seat that was taken by Fetterman.
Cannot stand McCormick! I hope Casey can pull off the win.
I definitely agree.
Trump’s narcissism, arrogance, ignorance, and blind stupidity will be his undoing. He can’t imagine anyone would think of him as less than god since he thinks so highly of himself.
Which is why he told the Haley voters he didn't need them. He won't even attempt to woo anyone who has already voted against him.
Other than the numbers which show a 10% higher vote for Biden from Democrats than those from Republicans for the indicted man in court, Biden received 135,000 more votes than that guy. That’s more reassuring to me.
I live in PA (Pittsburgh) and worked the polls. Yes, we have a closed primary. I had two folks who wanted to vote GOP and could not, since they were registered Democrat. (I found this interesting: who does not know what Party they belong to? I assume they don’t normally vote in the Primaries. When this (or any issue) occurs, they are permitted to vote provisionally, and are offered a form to change their party (for next time) if they wish.
PS, a few folks said they were writing in “Anyone but” and one said he was writing in PENCE 🙄.
While it is still a long way from November, I am more encouraged not by the margins of the votes FOR Biden, but by the margins voting 'other' than Trump. There are people over there who are getting out of the brain fog that the leaders of that movement have induced in the rest of their brethren. It's not spreading quickly "enough" to suit many on our side of the middle, but, for me, anything at all that reflects a willingness to come back towards the tenets of democracy is just peachy keen. We're talking millions of people here, so the increments will be tiny. Like the drops of water through the cracks in a dam, it does not seem like much, but the dam will break. I just want the leadership of OUR SIDE to be ready to accept the influx and be able to process the sheer volume of new voices within our ranks. We cannot afford to make mistakes or tolerate corruption. Not after all of this. Plan accordingly. NOW.
Also a big win for Rep. Summer Lee, who was up against a "moderate" ringer trying to tar her with the - wait for it - "anti-Israel = anti-Semitic" brush, and Pittsburgh voters were having none of it. "Bust up the Squad" is "centrist" Dem flavor of the month, but failing badly to date...yay!
I hope so because I do not have a problem with the squad. They are young, passionate, & committed to moving this country forward.
Shame on some Dems trying to oust them just because they have a conscience & disagree with the massive civilian deaths in Gaza AND the West Bank too. That in no way makes them pro Hamas, nor antisemitic.
“Looking at that number—155,829 registered GOP voters casting what amounts to a protest vote—the Trump Campaign has got to be concerned”
My worry is that although these voters may have cast a protest vote NOW, when it comes to the election conservatives have a way of falling right back in the line. ☹️
We should begin from the premise that MOST of these people could return to the GOP fold. But there are so many of them that if a good percent refuse to vote for Trump, it is something of a death knell given how close the race is expected to be.
If even half of them vote for Biden, and the rest stay home or vote RFKjr, that's enough to nearly cover Biden's margin of victory from 2020. And that was before Dobbs....and Trump's sleazy hush money trial.....
Criminal trial, please.
:)
Election Interference trial.
Thanks for the edit!
As a Delaware County resident, I got my tail to the polls yesterday to vote for Biden. Despite what the "Women for Haley" rep said, I am not frustrated that Biden is one of the choices, neither are any other Democratic women who I have spoken with.
Agreed! I actually think he’s been the best Presidents of my lifetime.