I personally think the U.S. could absorb millions of migrants and actually benefit from it, but if he says that, he loses the election, so yeah, your suggestion is my fallback. Gotta call out the hypocrisy wherever possible.
Adding more immigrants would enable the building of more housing. The construction industry is desperate for the cheaper labor. The biggest issue with housing is private equity and corporate ownership of housing. Not new migrants
Exactly right. This is a perfect time to hit the GQP HARD on the border and their unwillingness to address it. I really like the idea of getting the GQP weenies to punch themselves in the face like they did on Social Security a few years ago. . . .
He actually did that at the border. He told Trump he would work with him to solve the problem if Trump would quit telling the congress not to fix the border problem. He needs to keep at it though
It is the immigrants that are keeping our economy alive. Again, racism trumps logic in the understanding of immigrants and the role they are playing in keeping the USA from becoming the EU. The EU is aging rapidly with no one to replace the workers who are retiring. No one learning the skills. It is a big problem that the White Supremacist European countries also do not seem to recognize. The only country that I see recognizing that is Canada. It says in their immigration plan that they recognize that immigrants are necessary to their country. People who are isolationist do not understand that one gets a flow of ideas, and can replace people who are dying out, find those to fill roles in industries that have a shortage etc...However, math and logic and economics are not strong suits of the Republican Party. I am living part of the year in a city in Germany where over 50% of the people are over 60. Germans also like to retire early when they can. So, you do the math. They need a lot more immigrants. Africa, a very reviled continent perhaps because there is so much governmental chaos, has the youngest average age, 19 of any continent. That could be useful. The median age in the EU is 44.5 years. The country in Europe that I live in has a median age of 44.9 years and rising. The median age in the USA is 38.9 years, so that 6 year difference is a lot of working hours. The members of the press are woefully unprepared to discuss age and what it means. While we have aging populations we also have people living longer. It is individual biology. It would be good if doctors were better at discussing biological age. It is clear that biologically Biden is younger than Trump, something people don't seem to understand.
You have to wonder why the NYTimes, with access to high quality universities like NYU, Columbia, Fordham, NYCU/ CUNY, Barnard, Cooper Union, Rutgers, SUNY-Stonybrook—just to name a FEW!—chooses to use tiny, Catholic Siena College for its polling. . .
Aw, gee. He only holds a BA—a BA—in politics! What passes for journalism these days . . . He may never have taken a basic statistics course! That degree doesn’t get you to applied sciences. Bash away!
I'm no statistician but I took some statistics in college and among the first things we learned were the nullifying effects of insufficient sample sizes. This article notes that 2500 is more normal for a sample size with modern pollsters than the Siena Poll's 900, but that polling errors are a feature, not a bug:
"it's a feature and not a bug" is a disparaging phrase about the poor quality of a process. It may be used mostly in the tech industry, where I've spent a lot of time.
Understood. It just seems like a small sample size is a major problem in determining results. It reminds me of another a computer based phrase: "garbage in, garbage out” - or gigo - which reflects the situation of using inaccurate samples.
Is it still hard to accept that MSM are out there for their own interests? They are, and *regardless* of ownership. And once there, their business strategies follow their monetization goals. Any donations are more likely to come from a higher paid, more liberal cohort, and that's why they constantly teeter between good and evil, by design. Whether their biz strategy is right depends on... those who support it by subscribing.
Polls are made up news. Polls are media outlets like the NYT creating "news" to report on. I don't pay any attention to polls after the 2016. They have been more wrong than right. As far as I'm concerned, 538 has no credibility. Their polls don't jive with actual voting behavior.
The polls were wrong, and much of the media reporting is bassackwards as well, portraying Biden as weak and Trump as strong. The truth is the opposite. Biden performed well, and Trump continues to shed Republican voters who actually pay attention to the news, care about facts and can think rationally.
I haven’t read any one piece that explains why the mainstream media is doing this, which it obviously is. It’s not a plot, it’s a compunction, so I don’t think they can or will course correct unless we make it painful enough for their editors that they stop.
I think writing to them constantly would be more effective. I have actually seen biased headlines CHANGED in a later edition. I doubt cancellations caused that to happen. Lots of complaints may well have.
“I haven’t read any one piece that explains why the mainstream media is doing this”
That surprises me. Seems unbelievable, actually.
Granted you don’t see the mainstream media calling themselves out, but I’ve seen plenty of articles here in Substack and many other places very clearly explaining the financial motives behind their reporting that the presidential election is a horse race.
It’s my experience that far more people don’t know about Substack than do. Also, when I first began reading substacks, there were relatively few. Now, the few I want to read are nearly obscured by suggestions for others. As a retired person, I have far more time to hunt down and read the quality analysis I crave than most working folks, and I have stronger motivation than most of my friends. I keep sharing and recommending, but I don’t see too many of the people I know making a habit of coming here a priority.
You need to be a true political nerd to sift through Substack. Most people are out there TikToking themselves to death, and I don't mean that as figuratively as I'd like.
Been tolling about cancellations all over substack, no notice...
Yes, I have already cancelled all my msm sources long ago, nor, wapo, nyt, Atlantic (yep), With an explanation, but only mass event might make it useful - has to be measured in millions, and Along with a reasoning!!
Aldo, writing **10s of Millions** of simple thank you postcards to Biden is guaranteed to become known, and make MSM pay heed!
I'm still subscribed to NY Times, but mostly so I can call them out on BlueSky with their shared (non paywall) links and update my Trump Headline Corrector here on Substack.
Simon Rosenberg at Hopium Chronicles lists this as only one of the actions he's suggesting to his substack readers. You'll find it at the end of any of his recent posts.
Look at who owns MSM: Billionaires backing Libertarian fascism. And if they don’t “cooperate”—they will get the hatchet job, just like journalists did in Pinochet’s Chile. Truth is, those billionaires bought media outlets to assist the LIbertarian takeover, which wants to “privatize” everything—translate that to absconding with all the money. US foreign investigations are STILL finding billions that Pinochet and a few of his Corporate Benefactors stole. Chile never rebounded from the Libertarian destruction of their Constitution. Now, Koch is spearheading the same changes for the US. Read Nancy MacLean’s book, “Democracy in Chains.”
The polls in 2020 were wrong "but identifying conclusively why polls overstated the Democratic-Republican margin relative to the certified vote appears to be impossible with the available data." [American Asso. for Polling Research} If you don't know the problem, you can't fix it. Polls suck. Keep voting! Hopefully Democratic and keep fascists and convicted rapists out of public office.
Hmmmm, the "weirdos" vs. the "actuals." Loved this comparison. Makes con-jecture the true "con" job that it is, right? The NYT deserves to be flogged for its ridiculous 3-day flogging of its own fatally flawed poll. Unacceptable political partisanship by this once-great newspaper of record. Frankly, the steep fall of the Times makes me ineffably sad. I graduated from an accredited school of journalism, and I aspired to work at the Times then. My career took a different path, but I always admired the Times. No more :-(
Even if it’s wrong there is still too many. Trump offers no solutions other than fostering hate and division. We have to get people to show up in November.
It seems all he is campaigning on is the election was stolen, what about the border and if they can sick the DOJ on me they will on you too. No solutions for anything. Even the stuff he campaigned on in 2016 never came to fruition- health care, border wall, etc. Yet people still shift the blame to anyone but trump and will vote for him again because of "all he did for us the first time" (SMH)
Let’s get ahead of the subversive attempts to split the anti-trump votes with the minority candidates. In my opinion that is the biggest threat to the Blue team.
We need to inoculate the public against believing that protest votes about Gaza or any votes other than to the Democrats are meaningful except in helping the fascist MAGA movement.
Show that the minor parties are backed by Trump supporters including Russia and aided by Netanyahu’s disrespect for Biden.
Apparently quite a few of the pro-Palestinian protesters urging non-committal voting, at least the ones seen in Michigan, have conveniently forgotten how tRump wanted to ban any and all Muslims from entering the United States - and that wasn't so very long ago.
To be anything other than a conservative white Christian male was to be suspect.
The fact that gazza is overwhelming the "news", and subsequently a portion of the population is odd and should cause suspicion!
Million-s about to starve in Sudan, entire population of what's known as Nagorno Karabakh -120K people - "suddenly" left their ancestral lands, Ukraine suffering a genocidal war perpetuated by Putin, all "forgotten" suddenly?! Nooo! It's Putin's well organized propaganda machine, it never stopped its efforts! You know that, it's documented!
The only way to help Gaza is to support Democratic Party and President Biden, and *making that support known".
As an aside, I don't know how many people realize the unhuman levels of stress Biden is facing every day juggling between extremes.
Yep. This is the most strictly BINARY election in a long time. No candidate outside the parties stands any kind of chance, and any vote NOT for Biden is essentially a vote for Trump. I am willing to believe Jill Stein is earnest and honestly well-meaning, Cornel West is a brilliant and accomplished man, and Bobby Kennedy is... well... frankly nuts.
And none of them is going to be taking the Oath next January. This is not the time for a protest vote.
Even though I'm on a limited income I donate 30 dollars monthly to Biden and harris fund and I have given a one time donation of 130 dollars. I feel no matter what I have to give!!!!
Mitch McConnell endorsed Trump today, driving the final into his coffin as the greatest political hack of a generation. History will forever brand him as a political mastermind and a personal failure. Much like Donnie, as a matter of fact.
Remember: While Trump has called Mitch every name in the book, he even called his wife terrible things. Just like he did with Ted Cruz. And they now grovel at Trump’s feet. This tells you everything you need to know about their character.
Keep in mind that primaries are for the most engaged voters. Most voters are not yet participating, especially those uneducated ones that Trump loves. They are the most susceptible to the fear mongering that the GOP will be running on and least interested in analyzing why prices are high or that tax breaks to the rich are stealing from them.
They have the least ability to do critical thinking and or interest in media literacy.
This is a cohort of possible trump voters that has yet to be interested in the election.
This Election cycle should be very interesting. Just keep in mind that Jimmy Carter should of had a second term, (Exit Polls showed people voted for him) that stopped people from going to the polls. (Okay Jimmy doesn't need our vote) DON'T let that happen ever again! in fact don't listen to the pollsters on Election Day only after the polls have closed. VOTE BLUE no matter who! The sit back and enjoy the fireworks!! And trust me there will be fireworks !
I don't have any particular trust in polling. About all they do for me is galvanize me to vote if I feel like polls are showing a trend in the wrong direction (wrong defined as contrary to my personal preferences, of course).
Sure, I get that anywhere from 20-40% Repubs voting in the primaries - and voted for Haley - were saying that they "could never vote for tRump". And there's a not insignificant slice of Dem voters who are down on Joe Biden, but the take on them is that after showing their displeasure with Joe, they will "come back home" and support him in November.
So, my question is, why not treat all those Haley/no tRump voters as "primary" recusants who also will "come back home" and inevitably vote for the Orange Gobshite? Isn't that as likely?
The only scenario I see that would argue against that proposition is that Haley will not only NOT endorse tRump (unlikely, IMHO), but urge her voters to withhold support for tRump (even more unlikely). However, if Haley wants to remain a national figure, there is ZERO room for her in the MAGA GOP, and she has a lot to gain and little to lose in speaking out as a "traditional" Repub "conservative", willing to pick up the pieces if the electorate turn against the Repubs and tRump in November. Frankly, Haley could play an interesting role this election season, IF she has the courage of her convictions...yes, agreed, a tough call. Let's see how she plays it.
Some of them will certainly go back to the fold. It is always a question of who loses more of their baseline support by taking positions that cause fracture. The GOP is wedged on many fronts—abortion, IVF, Ukraine, election denialism, Trumpism—while we are wedged on Gaza and immigration.
I relegate exit polling to "heat-of-the-moment" snapshots, and failing the presence of a national Repub voice voicing disapproval of tRump, most of those Haley voters will show up and X-in tRump in November, IMHO.
David, I believe you are correct: the anti-Trump Haley voters are *far* more vocal and motivated than the disaffected Biden Democrats are. It’s up to the Biden campaign, now that we’re pretty clearly moving on to the general, to work hard to bring them back.
Don't forget the crossover vote, where several states allowed registered Dems to vote for either party's candidate, artificially raising the "anti-tRump" profile.
She and Liz Cheney should both join the Lincoln Project; I think they would both be welcomed with open arms. If the MAGA GOP is consumed in flames by the American electorate, I think the L.P. could provide the "egg" from which a new phoenix (the "Lincoln" party?) could rise. Haley and Cheney could still have political careers in that new party.
Biden needs to press the Republicans on the border in his speech. Draw them out like he did with social security.
Most Americans don't actually know it was the Republicans that killed the border bill. Mostly because their echo chamber keeps placing blame on biden.
I personally think the U.S. could absorb millions of migrants and actually benefit from it, but if he says that, he loses the election, so yeah, your suggestion is my fallback. Gotta call out the hypocrisy wherever possible.
Agreed.
I disagree; the biggest bottle neck is housing. If we built more, sure
Adding more immigrants would enable the building of more housing. The construction industry is desperate for the cheaper labor. The biggest issue with housing is private equity and corporate ownership of housing. Not new migrants
Exactly right. This is a perfect time to hit the GQP HARD on the border and their unwillingness to address it. I really like the idea of getting the GQP weenies to punch themselves in the face like they did on Social Security a few years ago. . . .
That would be absoeffinglutely beautiful❣️
He actually did that at the border. He told Trump he would work with him to solve the problem if Trump would quit telling the congress not to fix the border problem. He needs to keep at it though
This!!!
It is the immigrants that are keeping our economy alive. Again, racism trumps logic in the understanding of immigrants and the role they are playing in keeping the USA from becoming the EU. The EU is aging rapidly with no one to replace the workers who are retiring. No one learning the skills. It is a big problem that the White Supremacist European countries also do not seem to recognize. The only country that I see recognizing that is Canada. It says in their immigration plan that they recognize that immigrants are necessary to their country. People who are isolationist do not understand that one gets a flow of ideas, and can replace people who are dying out, find those to fill roles in industries that have a shortage etc...However, math and logic and economics are not strong suits of the Republican Party. I am living part of the year in a city in Germany where over 50% of the people are over 60. Germans also like to retire early when they can. So, you do the math. They need a lot more immigrants. Africa, a very reviled continent perhaps because there is so much governmental chaos, has the youngest average age, 19 of any continent. That could be useful. The median age in the EU is 44.5 years. The country in Europe that I live in has a median age of 44.9 years and rising. The median age in the USA is 38.9 years, so that 6 year difference is a lot of working hours. The members of the press are woefully unprepared to discuss age and what it means. While we have aging populations we also have people living longer. It is individual biology. It would be good if doctors were better at discussing biological age. It is clear that biologically Biden is younger than Trump, something people don't seem to understand.
part of the EU worry is that as Islamic immigrants come in, they may want to impose Sharia and other Islamic religious beliefs.
The US doesn't have that worry. We have the Evangelical Taliban already in place.
Ditto
You have to wonder why the NYTimes, with access to high quality universities like NYU, Columbia, Fordham, NYCU/ CUNY, Barnard, Cooper Union, Rutgers, SUNY-Stonybrook—just to name a FEW!—chooses to use tiny, Catholic Siena College for its polling. . .
Fair question!
Columbia, NYU and Rutgers actually have schools for applied statistics and actuary science—right there at the doorstep of the NYTimes. . .
But then, the math might be more accurate, which doesn't fit the narrative the NYT is desperate to keep pimping . . .
Good point.
Accurate results are boring.
I'm up for some boring results.
Is this my opportunity to bash Nate Cohn again?
Aw, gee. He only holds a BA—a BA—in politics! What passes for journalism these days . . . He may never have taken a basic statistics course! That degree doesn’t get you to applied sciences. Bash away!
I'm no statistician but I took some statistics in college and among the first things we learned were the nullifying effects of insufficient sample sizes. This article notes that 2500 is more normal for a sample size with modern pollsters than the Siena Poll's 900, but that polling errors are a feature, not a bug:
https://www.surveypractice.org/article/11736-sample-size-and-uncertainty-when-predicting-with-polls-the-shortcomings-of-confidence-intervals
Wouldn't a poor sampling size of amount to it being a bug rather than a feature?
"it's a feature and not a bug" is a disparaging phrase about the poor quality of a process. It may be used mostly in the tech industry, where I've spent a lot of time.
Understood. It just seems like a small sample size is a major problem in determining results. It reminds me of another a computer based phrase: "garbage in, garbage out” - or gigo - which reflects the situation of using inaccurate samples.
Be my guest.
What reason is there to wonder???
Is it still hard to accept that MSM are out there for their own interests? They are, and *regardless* of ownership. And once there, their business strategies follow their monetization goals. Any donations are more likely to come from a higher paid, more liberal cohort, and that's why they constantly teeter between good and evil, by design. Whether their biz strategy is right depends on... those who support it by subscribing.
Polls are made up news. Polls are media outlets like the NYT creating "news" to report on. I don't pay any attention to polls after the 2016. They have been more wrong than right. As far as I'm concerned, 538 has no credibility. Their polls don't jive with actual voting behavior.
I've been wondering about that.
The polls were wrong, and much of the media reporting is bassackwards as well, portraying Biden as weak and Trump as strong. The truth is the opposite. Biden performed well, and Trump continues to shed Republican voters who actually pay attention to the news, care about facts and can think rationally.
I haven’t read any one piece that explains why the mainstream media is doing this, which it obviously is. It’s not a plot, it’s a compunction, so I don’t think they can or will course correct unless we make it painful enough for their editors that they stop.
Absolutely. Cancel subscriptions to publications that perpetuate these inaccuracies,
misinterpretations and outright falsehoods. Fire off letters to their editors, and call them out whenever they engage in this false reporting.
I think writing to them constantly would be more effective. I have actually seen biased headlines CHANGED in a later edition. I doubt cancellations caused that to happen. Lots of complaints may well have.
“I haven’t read any one piece that explains why the mainstream media is doing this”
That surprises me. Seems unbelievable, actually.
Granted you don’t see the mainstream media calling themselves out, but I’ve seen plenty of articles here in Substack and many other places very clearly explaining the financial motives behind their reporting that the presidential election is a horse race.
It’s my experience that far more people don’t know about Substack than do. Also, when I first began reading substacks, there were relatively few. Now, the few I want to read are nearly obscured by suggestions for others. As a retired person, I have far more time to hunt down and read the quality analysis I crave than most working folks, and I have stronger motivation than most of my friends. I keep sharing and recommending, but I don’t see too many of the people I know making a habit of coming here a priority.
You need to be a true political nerd to sift through Substack. Most people are out there TikToking themselves to death, and I don't mean that as figuratively as I'd like.
Sad, but oh so true . . .
At the Caucus I was at last week, in talking with other progressives 45 years old and up none had heard of Substack. I of course recommended Jay!
Jay's report can also be found on FB. It often gets featured on the the Blue Rev page.
Wow, I finally found the right place!
Been tolling about cancellations all over substack, no notice...
Yes, I have already cancelled all my msm sources long ago, nor, wapo, nyt, Atlantic (yep), With an explanation, but only mass event might make it useful - has to be measured in millions, and Along with a reasoning!!
Aldo, writing **10s of Millions** of simple thank you postcards to Biden is guaranteed to become known, and make MSM pay heed!
I'm still subscribed to NY Times, but mostly so I can call them out on BlueSky with their shared (non paywall) links and update my Trump Headline Corrector here on Substack.
Is someone organizing such a postcard flood? Great idea!
Simon Rosenberg at Hopium Chronicles lists this as only one of the actions he's suggesting to his substack readers. You'll find it at the end of any of his recent posts.
And it's so simple to do. Just do it today, literally. Don't fret about what to write, just thanks and support for 4 more years.
Thanks.
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/biden-leads-in-2-new-polls-raise?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=k9lb9
Thank you. Passing the word along to friends. . . .
Look at who owns MSM: Billionaires backing Libertarian fascism. And if they don’t “cooperate”—they will get the hatchet job, just like journalists did in Pinochet’s Chile. Truth is, those billionaires bought media outlets to assist the LIbertarian takeover, which wants to “privatize” everything—translate that to absconding with all the money. US foreign investigations are STILL finding billions that Pinochet and a few of his Corporate Benefactors stole. Chile never rebounded from the Libertarian destruction of their Constitution. Now, Koch is spearheading the same changes for the US. Read Nancy MacLean’s book, “Democracy in Chains.”
I'll second Democracy in Chains. It's a real eyeopener.
A thousand ❣️
Compulsion? not Compunction?
I wish I had faith that that would happen.
Another given in this discussion. I'm glad you said it though because it needed saying for the emphasis factor.
Thank GOD!!!!!!!
Why we can't trust the polling. Thank you Jay Kuo.
Of course not, what, 2016 is, like, prehistoric now?
Thank you for keeping me sane, Jay. You are a calm voice in the shit storm of craziness!
The polls in 2020 were wrong "but identifying conclusively why polls overstated the Democratic-Republican margin relative to the certified vote appears to be impossible with the available data." [American Asso. for Polling Research} If you don't know the problem, you can't fix it. Polls suck. Keep voting! Hopefully Democratic and keep fascists and convicted rapists out of public office.
Hmmmm, the "weirdos" vs. the "actuals." Loved this comparison. Makes con-jecture the true "con" job that it is, right? The NYT deserves to be flogged for its ridiculous 3-day flogging of its own fatally flawed poll. Unacceptable political partisanship by this once-great newspaper of record. Frankly, the steep fall of the Times makes me ineffably sad. I graduated from an accredited school of journalism, and I aspired to work at the Times then. My career took a different path, but I always admired the Times. No more :-(
That 538 person essentially said why the polls are, essentially, meaningless!
Even if it’s wrong there is still too many. Trump offers no solutions other than fostering hate and division. We have to get people to show up in November.
It seems all he is campaigning on is the election was stolen, what about the border and if they can sick the DOJ on me they will on you too. No solutions for anything. Even the stuff he campaigned on in 2016 never came to fruition- health care, border wall, etc. Yet people still shift the blame to anyone but trump and will vote for him again because of "all he did for us the first time" (SMH)
I am calling it the Retribution Tour. I’m curious as to what form his voters think this retribution will take.
"Back in the good old days..." Gauzy mis-memory is a powerful and dangerous force. Especially when helped along by a Non-Stop drum beat of loud lies.
Let’s get ahead of the subversive attempts to split the anti-trump votes with the minority candidates. In my opinion that is the biggest threat to the Blue team.
We need to inoculate the public against believing that protest votes about Gaza or any votes other than to the Democrats are meaningful except in helping the fascist MAGA movement.
Show that the minor parties are backed by Trump supporters including Russia and aided by Netanyahu’s disrespect for Biden.
The only way to stop Trump is to VOTE BLUE.
Apparently quite a few of the pro-Palestinian protesters urging non-committal voting, at least the ones seen in Michigan, have conveniently forgotten how tRump wanted to ban any and all Muslims from entering the United States - and that wasn't so very long ago.
To be anything other than a conservative white Christian male was to be suspect.
Short memories = stupid voters.
They won’t vote for Trump but maybe another candidate, which is helping trump by siphoning a vote from Blue.
The fact that gazza is overwhelming the "news", and subsequently a portion of the population is odd and should cause suspicion!
Million-s about to starve in Sudan, entire population of what's known as Nagorno Karabakh -120K people - "suddenly" left their ancestral lands, Ukraine suffering a genocidal war perpetuated by Putin, all "forgotten" suddenly?! Nooo! It's Putin's well organized propaganda machine, it never stopped its efforts! You know that, it's documented!
The only way to help Gaza is to support Democratic Party and President Biden, and *making that support known".
As an aside, I don't know how many people realize the unhuman levels of stress Biden is facing every day juggling between extremes.
Yes. This. I was just thinking the same this week. This is all orchestrated.
Yep. This is the most strictly BINARY election in a long time. No candidate outside the parties stands any kind of chance, and any vote NOT for Biden is essentially a vote for Trump. I am willing to believe Jill Stein is earnest and honestly well-meaning, Cornel West is a brilliant and accomplished man, and Bobby Kennedy is... well... frankly nuts.
And none of them is going to be taking the Oath next January. This is not the time for a protest vote.
Keep up the good work, Jay. I’ll even break the piggy bank for your birthday appeal.
Me too
Even though I'm on a limited income I donate 30 dollars monthly to Biden and harris fund and I have given a one time donation of 130 dollars. I feel no matter what I have to give!!!!
I also donate monthly, and more occasionally.
Every donation counts!!!!
I will also break the piggy bank for Jay's birthday appeal!
Same here! As always, Jay's analysis is spot-on.
Mitch McConnell endorsed Trump today, driving the final into his coffin as the greatest political hack of a generation. History will forever brand him as a political mastermind and a personal failure. Much like Donnie, as a matter of fact.
Remember: While Trump has called Mitch every name in the book, he even called his wife terrible things. Just like he did with Ted Cruz. And they now grovel at Trump’s feet. This tells you everything you need to know about their character.
Moscow Mitch proved once again that he is a despicable, corrupt coward. Loser.
Keep in mind that primaries are for the most engaged voters. Most voters are not yet participating, especially those uneducated ones that Trump loves. They are the most susceptible to the fear mongering that the GOP will be running on and least interested in analyzing why prices are high or that tax breaks to the rich are stealing from them.
They have the least ability to do critical thinking and or interest in media literacy.
This is a cohort of possible trump voters that has yet to be interested in the election.
THIS
Good point.
Well, this is an interesting analysis.
Ditto
This Election cycle should be very interesting. Just keep in mind that Jimmy Carter should of had a second term, (Exit Polls showed people voted for him) that stopped people from going to the polls. (Okay Jimmy doesn't need our vote) DON'T let that happen ever again! in fact don't listen to the pollsters on Election Day only after the polls have closed. VOTE BLUE no matter who! The sit back and enjoy the fireworks!! And trust me there will be fireworks !
I'm always amazed at the number of people who respond to the Exit Polls. It's nobody's damn business who they voted for!
In which case, one can simply decline to answer. Exit polls offer useful information and clearly, many voters don't mind responding.
I don't have any particular trust in polling. About all they do for me is galvanize me to vote if I feel like polls are showing a trend in the wrong direction (wrong defined as contrary to my personal preferences, of course).
Sure, I get that anywhere from 20-40% Repubs voting in the primaries - and voted for Haley - were saying that they "could never vote for tRump". And there's a not insignificant slice of Dem voters who are down on Joe Biden, but the take on them is that after showing their displeasure with Joe, they will "come back home" and support him in November.
So, my question is, why not treat all those Haley/no tRump voters as "primary" recusants who also will "come back home" and inevitably vote for the Orange Gobshite? Isn't that as likely?
The only scenario I see that would argue against that proposition is that Haley will not only NOT endorse tRump (unlikely, IMHO), but urge her voters to withhold support for tRump (even more unlikely). However, if Haley wants to remain a national figure, there is ZERO room for her in the MAGA GOP, and she has a lot to gain and little to lose in speaking out as a "traditional" Repub "conservative", willing to pick up the pieces if the electorate turn against the Repubs and tRump in November. Frankly, Haley could play an interesting role this election season, IF she has the courage of her convictions...yes, agreed, a tough call. Let's see how she plays it.
Some of them will certainly go back to the fold. It is always a question of who loses more of their baseline support by taking positions that cause fracture. The GOP is wedged on many fronts—abortion, IVF, Ukraine, election denialism, Trumpism—while we are wedged on Gaza and immigration.
I relegate exit polling to "heat-of-the-moment" snapshots, and failing the presence of a national Repub voice voicing disapproval of tRump, most of those Haley voters will show up and X-in tRump in November, IMHO.
Lance; I believe Haley voters are much more strident in their opposition to Trump than the anti Biden cohort is to Biden.
David, I believe you are correct: the anti-Trump Haley voters are *far* more vocal and motivated than the disaffected Biden Democrats are. It’s up to the Biden campaign, now that we’re pretty clearly moving on to the general, to work hard to bring them back.
👍👍
Don't forget the crossover vote, where several states allowed registered Dems to vote for either party's candidate, artificially raising the "anti-tRump" profile.
P.S. I will concede that her dropping-out speech today was not all that encouraging re: righteousness of her convictions...oy vey.
She and Liz Cheney should both join the Lincoln Project; I think they would both be welcomed with open arms. If the MAGA GOP is consumed in flames by the American electorate, I think the L.P. could provide the "egg" from which a new phoenix (the "Lincoln" party?) could rise. Haley and Cheney could still have political careers in that new party.