It was a high stakes weekend for the Russian state and particularly for its president, Vladimir Putin, who faced a surprise armed mutiny by one of the most fearsome military groups in the country: the Wagner Group of mercenaries, led by his one-time ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Interestingly enough the issue of Prigozhin’s complaint against the top Russian military commanders goes back several months. Much earlier this year Prigozhin entered into an arrangement with Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian installed leader of the annexed Crimea, that resulted in a new private military group (PMC) known only as “Convoy,” this PMC is understood to be well funded, equipped with high technology capabilities and a large number of sniper armaments, all located in a secure underground facility.
Belarusian President Lukashenko also has been known to have been generating large numbers of arrests of numerous types of persons.
British command sources have warned about the whole “mutiny” as being a cover for Prigozhin to make a surprise attack drive from Belarus down into Kiev.
As of yesterday there were reports of Wagner tanks continuing to travel northwards in to Russia, whether they were bound for Moscow or Belarus was unknown at the time of reports.
Also it has been reported/ suspected that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been providing financial support to the Wagner group and by extension Prigozhin and his network of PMCs.
From my perspective there is a distinct possibility that the mutiny was a cover operation with multiple objectives in view. Not least of which might be significant power plays to displace Putin and continue the war against Ukraine from Belarus for the immediate short term.
Fundamentally, it still makes little sense for this to be some kind of ploy. Putin is too badly damaged by it. If it was a ploy, it was a very foolish one that has undermined Putin considerably.
Understood, my contention then is that the ploy was concocted between Lukashenko and Prigozhin and involved Putin only on the surface, and will have as a consequent result the further weakening of Putin's position overall with the whole of Russian government and its allied forces involved in the invasion.
As Machiavelli has said, "It is a double pleasure to deceive the deceiver. "
What keyed me in primarily to this idea was when any statement given by Prigozhin was reported/ repeated with regards to the agreement with Lukashenko, Prigozhin's consistent response was to refer to the agreement as "the plan."
Lukashenko has been suffering from a diminished position and status during the context of the invasion. recent observations back in March noted that Putin was even then attempting to strengthen the appearance of his position as a war commander, while Lukashenko was at the same time asserting his country's ability and readiness to supply important electronic components needed for many types of armaments.
Also, it is my understanding that Prigozhin and Lukashenko have a prior existing relationship that is mutually beneficial and agreeable.
It's been reported in recent weeks that Putin has moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus. If the mutiny is a cover operation, it's logical to assume that it's covering for a major counter-offensive, led by the most effective fighting force, supported by tactical nukes.
Yes, he has bee laying ground for the power grab for a long time, getting louder after they'd failed to take Bakhmut for the ninth consecutive month.
In addition to the repressions in Belarus, also in the picture we have Russian tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus, Prigozhin's playing footsie with the Emirates, as you said, Wagner's history of gold racket in Africa, and Russian military presence at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. This is NOT a comforting situation by any stretch.
i'm sure that US, British and Ukraine intel will be closely monitoring the possibility of a feint with a shift to Belarus but seems most likely this should all just be taken at face value. Putin has suffered quite the black eye out of this and it would be quite out of character for that to be self-inflicted for some maybe or maybe not effective military tactical advantage. Noting that an attack from the Belarus direction has always been a possibility and Ukraine's northern border is not entirely unprepared at this time. And who would there be left besides Putin for whom continued prosecution of the war with Ukraine would make sense? Russia is less a country, much more like the Mafia with a lot of land (if you're in the Mafia, please forgive me, no slight to you intended in the comparison). This was supposed to be just a quick resource grab, a Crimea replay. This whole Ukraine thing has been bad for business in Russia.
What is most troubling is Putin being just that much more isolated, boxed in a corner. Will he resort to nuclear munitions? Blow the nuclear power plant? Not that it would serve any purpose but just to be spiteful, vindictive and cruel?
I am currently inclined to suspect a maskirovka is taking place that might have been concocted between Prigozhin and Lukashenko; Putin has now been demonstrated to be very weak and as some have said the hawks are circling him looking for their opportunity to displace him.
One of the latest fads among the Russian "opposition" is to blame Ukrainians for not coming to Moscow and organizing a revolution for the Russians after they had succeeded at home. This latest episode highlights two things - both of them emphasizing that it's not just Putin, but the entire country is messed up to the n-th degree.
One: 9-1/2 years ago 20,000 Ukrainian civilians, armed with steel bars, tire irons, bricks, and home-made Molotov cocktails showed up in Kyiv and succeeded at overthrowing the pro-Russian government of Yanukovich. I remember reading texts from girls who were traveling to Kyiv by train to join the protesters and making sure to pack pretty underwear because they didn't want to show up at the morgue in ugly old underpants, should they get killed. There were people who stacked together old newspapers and magazines and stuffed them into backpacks, hanging one in the front one in the back by way of body armor. They were faced with elite forces, who were armed with machine guns, grenades, rubber bullets, real bullets, flame throwers, high-pressure water cannons, etc. Nevertheless, those civilians had succeeded at kicking Yanukovich out of the office. Yet, here we have 25,000 elite mercenaries, who have been waging wars all over the world for years, armed to the teeth, with zero qualms about bloodshed - and they failed.
Two: in some of the Russian cities and towns Prigozhin and his forces passed through, people came out to greet them as "liberators". But they refuse to go out and protest the war in Ukraine because it's "too dangerous". So, they have no problem showing up in the streets with flags and posters, shouting loudly.... for SOMETHING. Just not the right thing.
Thank you. I am originally from Ukraine, and my parents still live there. When Crimea was annexed, I asked them point blank whether I should start busting my bum doing everything possible to bring them to the States to stay with me. They refused. They cried, I cried. I have been covering the political events there ever since, trying to help people in the western world gain a better understanding as to what was going on there.
At the time, many of us said: do NOT let Russia get away with this, they will not stop. Especially after the Malaysian Airlines airplane got shot down. We were called rusophobes and accused of fearmongering. Well.... on February 24 , 2022, we felt like Will Smith's character in "I, Robot", "This is when 'I told you so' just doesn't say it."
Very interesting observation. It brings up one question: exactly why did those 20,000 Ukrainian citizens succeed? Not being familiar with Ukraine, I don't know, but I have a hunch. Most dictatorships only survive through the acquiescence of the population. Those 20,000 brave Ukrainians probably made it clear that they were just the tip of the iceberg, and that Yanukovich had utterly lost the support in the population, maybe even of the elite forces he relied on.
Oh, they were definitely only the tip of the iceberg - the whole country was in an uproar. And I think that is the cardinal difference between people in Ukraine and people in Russia, despite their many overlaps and genetic similarities. Ukrainians, as a country, were able to figure out what they want and decide they were willing to go for it at all costs. Ukraine has been existing in Russia's shadow for centuries. In 1991, when the Soviet Union fell apart, people of Ukraine made it clear via a referendum (NOT organized by Russia and NOT held at gunpoint) that they wanted their country back and to determine their own path. That chafed Russia something awful.
Despite Ukraine being a much older country (I mean - Kyiv was a trade and cultural center, when Moscow was a forest clearing), Russia had cultivated an image of Ukraine as a "little brother" - hard-working, but a bit slow and a bit incompetent. Not true, of course, but that's the image they had created. For a while - even after 1991 - Ukraine continued to put up with Russia's constant interference in its affairs. And then, in October 2013, they'd finally had enough, when Yanukovich backed down on an updated political and trade deal with EU to pacify Putin. This, by the way, has been my answer to those who keep saying "Ukraine should have stayed neutral". Ukraine WAS neutral until then. Had Russia not meddled, it would have been neutral still. But no....
And so the stupid, slow little brother suddenly roared into action and succeeded in overthrowing Yanukovich. And the Russia promptly invaded, hacked off Crimea, and trenched in in the Donetsk-Luhansk region. Now look at Russian "opposition". They don't even clearly know what they want. Russian people just repeat what they are told. There are 140 million of them - and they can't get their sh*t together.
Thank you for that concise explanation! And you even answered the second question I couldn't quite formulate: why this didn't happen in Russia, despite more or less the same historic background (for the last four or five generations, at least) and the same indoctrination. If I understand you right, Russia is simply too big (and too diverse) for the population to form a cohesive vision. Makes it much easier to divide and conquer.
Thanks again. A lot of things fell into place because of your explanation.
Size is part of the problem. The fact that bordering regions of Russia are parts of Russia grudgingly because they have been invaded or hacked off from other countries is part of the problem. I am surprised why those areas don't use this opportunity to rebel and demand independence - Russia has no resources to fight multiple civil wars right now.
AND, the last but not the least - people are so brainwashed, so used to being told what to think, they appear to be incapable of doing something for themselves. Foreign observers point at the likes of Naval'ny and Khodorkovski as "Russian opposition", completely missing the fact that NEITHER of those two are against the war in Ukraine. And Naval'ny is a flagrant nationalist and homophobe to boot, who had compared non-Russian nationals in Russia to cockroaches. They condemn Putin's government for corruption - that's their focus, but they are just fine with homophobia, human rights violations, and the war in Ukraine. Same applies to Russian citizens. When there were protests last year - they were protesting the draft, not the war. They are fine if someone else goes and is used as cannon fodder in Ukraine, just as long as they don't have to.
I think those areas that were likely to rebel already did - from the Baltics to many of the Asian parts. The remaining ones probably saw what happened in Chechnya and Georgia, and also that even many of those that weren't invaded ended up no better off. Think of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Ukraine is almost a success story in comparison. Pulling off what the Baltics did, and what Ukraine and Moldova did, is not easy.
Another factor may well be that some of the areas in Asia never were cohesive nations, more tribal-based, similar to Afghanistan.
Agreed on the brainwashing part, but that's what I was wondering about - Ukrainians were subject to the same brainwashing. Maybe they were more immune because of Stalin's atrocities?
Ukraine had always been more European-leaning - throughout history. Sure we had some bad blood with the Poles and the Hungarians, but we traded with them too - even as we waged wars with them. Russia was far more affected by the Mongol invasion - the hive mind, the army-like hierarchy, the "don't ask the questions - do as you are told", all of that stayed deeply seated in the Russian culture since about the 13th century. When it comes to splitting off - yes, the Baltics, but let's also not forget the even earlier split offs. In the 19th century, Poland was still a province of the Russian empire. As was Finland. They'd split off - painfully, soaked in blood, but they had succeeded. And look whom we now have as some of the most vocal Ukraine advocates: the Baltics, Poland, and Finland. Why? Because they know what it's like to live under the Russian heel.
So many questions. Do we really know that the Wagner troops are leaving the battlefield? Don’t they have to sign up with the regular army as part of the deal? Where are they now? Where is Prigozhin? I am very uneasy.
"We have questions" can be our perpetual statement of near half a decade now...
The Russian scenario illustrates quite starkly the issues when motivations are reduced to personal gain, absent of genuine allegiance, ideology or sense of patriotism.
For Putin Trump has always been nothing more than a Tool-Fool with which to sow and seed discord, discontent, disharmony, and division within American Society.
For a professional intelligence operator such a Putin is historically known as, using self-indulgent persons like Trump is always done at a distance and at a removed position.
Once Trump lost the election and the American Justice and Intelligence system and community regained a trustworthy leader in President Biden they were all able to get back to their work without Trumpian interference; while Putin simply abandoned him and went about his grandiose plans for Eastern Europe.
I don't buy that. If Putin had abandoned Trump, you wouldn't still hear Trump's mouthpieces parrot the Russian propaganda on the Ukraine war. And if Putin is still in a position to interfere with the 2024 US election, he will, if only to remove US support for Ukraine.
Another consideration: if I recall correctly, Russia's main propaganda organization, the Internet Research Agency, was Prigozhin's baby.
Putin has no use for a powerless trump. Therefor out of work trump is of no interest to him. I'm guessing the troll farms will be working overtime very soon but it's not likely to be as successful as it was in 2016 for a bunch of reasons. I'm not sure how much money Putin will invest in the endeavor. Yes, it benefits him if trump is president but trump is only so useful. And with Prigozhin on the sidelines, the troll farms might not be what they were. Time will tell.
“Trump’s mouthpieces?” who are these nefarious agents you that seem focused on? Are you suggesting that Putin was operating through these unnamed parties with Trump as their ringleader?
As for Putin and any election interference abilities you ascribe to him I am confident that the American Intelligence & National Security Communities, now under the oversight of the Biden Administration, have taken whatever they will have learned from the past election that installed Trump into the White House and are actively engaged on all fronts to mitigate any election interference from any potential influence operations funded or supported by any anti-American entities.
As for the Internet Research Agency (IRA) and it being “Prigozhin’s baby” what exactly does that have to do with my reply-comment?
Perhaps you are interested to learn more about the IRA, if so here is a very good up to date webpage article with some very good information about the Russian Government supported cyber-subversion outfit, for you to read:
“Inside Russia’s Notorious ‘Internet Research Agency’ Troll Farm”
I read somewhere that this could have all been a stunt to blame the failure in Ukraine on Russian military leaders rather than on Putin. Is that no longer a possibility?
I’ve seen that but it makes little sense to me for Putin to sacrifice the one thing he has going for him: the sense of stability and security that is part of the bargain keeping him in power.
I find it telling that in all this discussion of the weekend's events, not one commentator I've seen or heard here in the US and elsewhere has mentioned our own home-grown mercenary force, X'e (formerly Blackwater) which has committed the same types of atrocities and human rights violations as Prigozhin's Wagner Group. I'm constantly reminded of The Dirty Dozen, which depicted a group of hardcase criminals being used against the German Army in WWII. It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye (usually the innocent bystanders who are considered collateral damage). Widen out the focus to the world at large, and it's clear that we, as a species, have a long way to go to get right.
Thank you for the overview. When I first heard that there was a negotiated conclusion that involved Prigozhin going to Belarus, I wondered if Putin gave Belarus to Prigozhin to buy him off . . .
Putin certainly looks weak in this. There really isn't a way to spin it has "crushing" a rebellion. . .
Another all hat no cattle dictator (thankfully), actually quite predictable in most cases. Having the bulk of the world’s nuclear power does make one hold a long breath of course, because these sociopaths can also predictably snap and become lethally enraged psychopaths. But in the end it seems that predictably, they love their riches even more than power. Thankfully.
Interestingly enough the issue of Prigozhin’s complaint against the top Russian military commanders goes back several months. Much earlier this year Prigozhin entered into an arrangement with Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian installed leader of the annexed Crimea, that resulted in a new private military group (PMC) known only as “Convoy,” this PMC is understood to be well funded, equipped with high technology capabilities and a large number of sniper armaments, all located in a secure underground facility.
Belarusian President Lukashenko also has been known to have been generating large numbers of arrests of numerous types of persons.
British command sources have warned about the whole “mutiny” as being a cover for Prigozhin to make a surprise attack drive from Belarus down into Kiev.
As of yesterday there were reports of Wagner tanks continuing to travel northwards in to Russia, whether they were bound for Moscow or Belarus was unknown at the time of reports.
Also it has been reported/ suspected that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been providing financial support to the Wagner group and by extension Prigozhin and his network of PMCs.
From my perspective there is a distinct possibility that the mutiny was a cover operation with multiple objectives in view. Not least of which might be significant power plays to displace Putin and continue the war against Ukraine from Belarus for the immediate short term.
That’s all I have to report at this time.
Fundamentally, it still makes little sense for this to be some kind of ploy. Putin is too badly damaged by it. If it was a ploy, it was a very foolish one that has undermined Putin considerably.
Understood, my contention then is that the ploy was concocted between Lukashenko and Prigozhin and involved Putin only on the surface, and will have as a consequent result the further weakening of Putin's position overall with the whole of Russian government and its allied forces involved in the invasion.
As Machiavelli has said, "It is a double pleasure to deceive the deceiver. "
What keyed me in primarily to this idea was when any statement given by Prigozhin was reported/ repeated with regards to the agreement with Lukashenko, Prigozhin's consistent response was to refer to the agreement as "the plan."
Lukashenko has been suffering from a diminished position and status during the context of the invasion. recent observations back in March noted that Putin was even then attempting to strengthen the appearance of his position as a war commander, while Lukashenko was at the same time asserting his country's ability and readiness to supply important electronic components needed for many types of armaments.
Also, it is my understanding that Prigozhin and Lukashenko have a prior existing relationship that is mutually beneficial and agreeable.
That's a frightening prospect, Robert.
It's been reported in recent weeks that Putin has moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus. If the mutiny is a cover operation, it's logical to assume that it's covering for a major counter-offensive, led by the most effective fighting force, supported by tactical nukes.
I sure hope you're wrong!
.
Yes, he has bee laying ground for the power grab for a long time, getting louder after they'd failed to take Bakhmut for the ninth consecutive month.
In addition to the repressions in Belarus, also in the picture we have Russian tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus, Prigozhin's playing footsie with the Emirates, as you said, Wagner's history of gold racket in Africa, and Russian military presence at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. This is NOT a comforting situation by any stretch.
Agreed.
Yes, a two front war is my fear as well
i'm sure that US, British and Ukraine intel will be closely monitoring the possibility of a feint with a shift to Belarus but seems most likely this should all just be taken at face value. Putin has suffered quite the black eye out of this and it would be quite out of character for that to be self-inflicted for some maybe or maybe not effective military tactical advantage. Noting that an attack from the Belarus direction has always been a possibility and Ukraine's northern border is not entirely unprepared at this time. And who would there be left besides Putin for whom continued prosecution of the war with Ukraine would make sense? Russia is less a country, much more like the Mafia with a lot of land (if you're in the Mafia, please forgive me, no slight to you intended in the comparison). This was supposed to be just a quick resource grab, a Crimea replay. This whole Ukraine thing has been bad for business in Russia.
What is most troubling is Putin being just that much more isolated, boxed in a corner. Will he resort to nuclear munitions? Blow the nuclear power plant? Not that it would serve any purpose but just to be spiteful, vindictive and cruel?
I am currently inclined to suspect a maskirovka is taking place that might have been concocted between Prigozhin and Lukashenko; Putin has now been demonstrated to be very weak and as some have said the hawks are circling him looking for their opportunity to displace him.
“For more than two decades, Putin has been able to maintain power in Russia by deftly playing rivals off against one another.”
Hitler did this, too. So much for Purim’s de-Nazification claim.
One of the latest fads among the Russian "opposition" is to blame Ukrainians for not coming to Moscow and organizing a revolution for the Russians after they had succeeded at home. This latest episode highlights two things - both of them emphasizing that it's not just Putin, but the entire country is messed up to the n-th degree.
One: 9-1/2 years ago 20,000 Ukrainian civilians, armed with steel bars, tire irons, bricks, and home-made Molotov cocktails showed up in Kyiv and succeeded at overthrowing the pro-Russian government of Yanukovich. I remember reading texts from girls who were traveling to Kyiv by train to join the protesters and making sure to pack pretty underwear because they didn't want to show up at the morgue in ugly old underpants, should they get killed. There were people who stacked together old newspapers and magazines and stuffed them into backpacks, hanging one in the front one in the back by way of body armor. They were faced with elite forces, who were armed with machine guns, grenades, rubber bullets, real bullets, flame throwers, high-pressure water cannons, etc. Nevertheless, those civilians had succeeded at kicking Yanukovich out of the office. Yet, here we have 25,000 elite mercenaries, who have been waging wars all over the world for years, armed to the teeth, with zero qualms about bloodshed - and they failed.
Two: in some of the Russian cities and towns Prigozhin and his forces passed through, people came out to greet them as "liberators". But they refuse to go out and protest the war in Ukraine because it's "too dangerous". So, they have no problem showing up in the streets with flags and posters, shouting loudly.... for SOMETHING. Just not the right thing.
You make some good observations. Particularly the second one, which is quite telling with regards to the mixed civilian behaviors.
Thank you. I am originally from Ukraine, and my parents still live there. When Crimea was annexed, I asked them point blank whether I should start busting my bum doing everything possible to bring them to the States to stay with me. They refused. They cried, I cried. I have been covering the political events there ever since, trying to help people in the western world gain a better understanding as to what was going on there.
At the time, many of us said: do NOT let Russia get away with this, they will not stop. Especially after the Malaysian Airlines airplane got shot down. We were called rusophobes and accused of fearmongering. Well.... on February 24 , 2022, we felt like Will Smith's character in "I, Robot", "This is when 'I told you so' just doesn't say it."
Very interesting observation. It brings up one question: exactly why did those 20,000 Ukrainian citizens succeed? Not being familiar with Ukraine, I don't know, but I have a hunch. Most dictatorships only survive through the acquiescence of the population. Those 20,000 brave Ukrainians probably made it clear that they were just the tip of the iceberg, and that Yanukovich had utterly lost the support in the population, maybe even of the elite forces he relied on.
Oh, they were definitely only the tip of the iceberg - the whole country was in an uproar. And I think that is the cardinal difference between people in Ukraine and people in Russia, despite their many overlaps and genetic similarities. Ukrainians, as a country, were able to figure out what they want and decide they were willing to go for it at all costs. Ukraine has been existing in Russia's shadow for centuries. In 1991, when the Soviet Union fell apart, people of Ukraine made it clear via a referendum (NOT organized by Russia and NOT held at gunpoint) that they wanted their country back and to determine their own path. That chafed Russia something awful.
Despite Ukraine being a much older country (I mean - Kyiv was a trade and cultural center, when Moscow was a forest clearing), Russia had cultivated an image of Ukraine as a "little brother" - hard-working, but a bit slow and a bit incompetent. Not true, of course, but that's the image they had created. For a while - even after 1991 - Ukraine continued to put up with Russia's constant interference in its affairs. And then, in October 2013, they'd finally had enough, when Yanukovich backed down on an updated political and trade deal with EU to pacify Putin. This, by the way, has been my answer to those who keep saying "Ukraine should have stayed neutral". Ukraine WAS neutral until then. Had Russia not meddled, it would have been neutral still. But no....
And so the stupid, slow little brother suddenly roared into action and succeeded in overthrowing Yanukovich. And the Russia promptly invaded, hacked off Crimea, and trenched in in the Donetsk-Luhansk region. Now look at Russian "opposition". They don't even clearly know what they want. Russian people just repeat what they are told. There are 140 million of them - and they can't get their sh*t together.
Thank you for that concise explanation! And you even answered the second question I couldn't quite formulate: why this didn't happen in Russia, despite more or less the same historic background (for the last four or five generations, at least) and the same indoctrination. If I understand you right, Russia is simply too big (and too diverse) for the population to form a cohesive vision. Makes it much easier to divide and conquer.
Thanks again. A lot of things fell into place because of your explanation.
Size is part of the problem. The fact that bordering regions of Russia are parts of Russia grudgingly because they have been invaded or hacked off from other countries is part of the problem. I am surprised why those areas don't use this opportunity to rebel and demand independence - Russia has no resources to fight multiple civil wars right now.
AND, the last but not the least - people are so brainwashed, so used to being told what to think, they appear to be incapable of doing something for themselves. Foreign observers point at the likes of Naval'ny and Khodorkovski as "Russian opposition", completely missing the fact that NEITHER of those two are against the war in Ukraine. And Naval'ny is a flagrant nationalist and homophobe to boot, who had compared non-Russian nationals in Russia to cockroaches. They condemn Putin's government for corruption - that's their focus, but they are just fine with homophobia, human rights violations, and the war in Ukraine. Same applies to Russian citizens. When there were protests last year - they were protesting the draft, not the war. They are fine if someone else goes and is used as cannon fodder in Ukraine, just as long as they don't have to.
I think those areas that were likely to rebel already did - from the Baltics to many of the Asian parts. The remaining ones probably saw what happened in Chechnya and Georgia, and also that even many of those that weren't invaded ended up no better off. Think of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Ukraine is almost a success story in comparison. Pulling off what the Baltics did, and what Ukraine and Moldova did, is not easy.
Another factor may well be that some of the areas in Asia never were cohesive nations, more tribal-based, similar to Afghanistan.
Agreed on the brainwashing part, but that's what I was wondering about - Ukrainians were subject to the same brainwashing. Maybe they were more immune because of Stalin's atrocities?
Ukraine had always been more European-leaning - throughout history. Sure we had some bad blood with the Poles and the Hungarians, but we traded with them too - even as we waged wars with them. Russia was far more affected by the Mongol invasion - the hive mind, the army-like hierarchy, the "don't ask the questions - do as you are told", all of that stayed deeply seated in the Russian culture since about the 13th century. When it comes to splitting off - yes, the Baltics, but let's also not forget the even earlier split offs. In the 19th century, Poland was still a province of the Russian empire. As was Finland. They'd split off - painfully, soaked in blood, but they had succeeded. And look whom we now have as some of the most vocal Ukraine advocates: the Baltics, Poland, and Finland. Why? Because they know what it's like to live under the Russian heel.
So many questions. Do we really know that the Wagner troops are leaving the battlefield? Don’t they have to sign up with the regular army as part of the deal? Where are they now? Where is Prigozhin? I am very uneasy.
"We have questions" can be our perpetual statement of near half a decade now...
The Russian scenario illustrates quite starkly the issues when motivations are reduced to personal gain, absent of genuine allegiance, ideology or sense of patriotism.
I wonder what putin knows as far as trumps indictments go?
Is he thinking Trump is no longer of use to him and thus its best to cover his ass, tuck his tail and run?
Maybe some of the bullshit there is what the look over there and pointing to the LGBT community is all about.
And the Trump indictments threw a major fucking bigly wrench into his gears.
For Putin Trump has always been nothing more than a Tool-Fool with which to sow and seed discord, discontent, disharmony, and division within American Society.
For a professional intelligence operator such a Putin is historically known as, using self-indulgent persons like Trump is always done at a distance and at a removed position.
Once Trump lost the election and the American Justice and Intelligence system and community regained a trustworthy leader in President Biden they were all able to get back to their work without Trumpian interference; while Putin simply abandoned him and went about his grandiose plans for Eastern Europe.
I don't buy that. If Putin had abandoned Trump, you wouldn't still hear Trump's mouthpieces parrot the Russian propaganda on the Ukraine war. And if Putin is still in a position to interfere with the 2024 US election, he will, if only to remove US support for Ukraine.
Another consideration: if I recall correctly, Russia's main propaganda organization, the Internet Research Agency, was Prigozhin's baby.
Putin has no use for a powerless trump. Therefor out of work trump is of no interest to him. I'm guessing the troll farms will be working overtime very soon but it's not likely to be as successful as it was in 2016 for a bunch of reasons. I'm not sure how much money Putin will invest in the endeavor. Yes, it benefits him if trump is president but trump is only so useful. And with Prigozhin on the sidelines, the troll farms might not be what they were. Time will tell.
“Trump’s mouthpieces?” who are these nefarious agents you that seem focused on? Are you suggesting that Putin was operating through these unnamed parties with Trump as their ringleader?
As for Putin and any election interference abilities you ascribe to him I am confident that the American Intelligence & National Security Communities, now under the oversight of the Biden Administration, have taken whatever they will have learned from the past election that installed Trump into the White House and are actively engaged on all fronts to mitigate any election interference from any potential influence operations funded or supported by any anti-American entities.
As for the Internet Research Agency (IRA) and it being “Prigozhin’s baby” what exactly does that have to do with my reply-comment?
Perhaps you are interested to learn more about the IRA, if so here is a very good up to date webpage article with some very good information about the Russian Government supported cyber-subversion outfit, for you to read:
“Inside Russia’s Notorious ‘Internet Research Agency’ Troll Farm”
https://spyscape.com/article/inside-the-troll-factory-russias-internet-research-agency
Prigozhin = Dead Man Walking
I read somewhere that this could have all been a stunt to blame the failure in Ukraine on Russian military leaders rather than on Putin. Is that no longer a possibility?
I’ve seen that but it makes little sense to me for Putin to sacrifice the one thing he has going for him: the sense of stability and security that is part of the bargain keeping him in power.
I had a similar thought. And/or that Wagner group will reappear unexpectedly as a “secret weapon”.
I was wondering the exact same thing.
I find it telling that in all this discussion of the weekend's events, not one commentator I've seen or heard here in the US and elsewhere has mentioned our own home-grown mercenary force, X'e (formerly Blackwater) which has committed the same types of atrocities and human rights violations as Prigozhin's Wagner Group. I'm constantly reminded of The Dirty Dozen, which depicted a group of hardcase criminals being used against the German Army in WWII. It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye (usually the innocent bystanders who are considered collateral damage). Widen out the focus to the world at large, and it's clear that we, as a species, have a long way to go to get right.
I couldn't help but think of Blackwater, as I learned more about the Wagner Group.
Thank you for the overview. When I first heard that there was a negotiated conclusion that involved Prigozhin going to Belarus, I wondered if Putin gave Belarus to Prigozhin to buy him off . . .
Putin certainly looks weak in this. There really isn't a way to spin it has "crushing" a rebellion. . .
Good news for Ukraine.
This is all great analysis and conjecture but this situation is far from predictable at this moment.
We should not predict. But we should assess.
Robert Reich has an interesting take on the whole situation as a well-planned ploy to allow Putin deniability.
Deniability for what?
That he's losing the war? That his generals are incompetent? That he doesn't have the power/support he used to have?
Thanks. Yup, all that. But I don't think it gives him deniability. All that stuff is true, but he still owns it.
From your laptop to God's ears.
Do you think this could have been a ploy all along!! To give false hope to Ukraine!! I would not put anything past Putin and his cronies!!
Another all hat no cattle dictator (thankfully), actually quite predictable in most cases. Having the bulk of the world’s nuclear power does make one hold a long breath of course, because these sociopaths can also predictably snap and become lethally enraged psychopaths. But in the end it seems that predictably, they love their riches even more than power. Thankfully.
Well done!