I'm gonna need some Rolaids to get me through this year, aren't I? Deep inside, I have this horrible feeling that SCOTUS will see things in 'rumps favor. It just cant be said enough...every single American must not sit this election out...we all must get involved somehow. Call your local Democratic office....volunteer and by all means, Vote.
I'm the most conservative guy you'll ever meet (at least on this forum), and there is no way I'm voting for "dictator on day one" in 2024. The small circle of normies that he had in his first term have all left him. If Haley doesn't win the nomination, I'm either voting for Biden or I'm sitting it out. Still not sure yet.
It's fine to be a conservative, but it's not fine to be a fascist. And that's what voting for Trump would mean...fascism for America. "Sitting it out" is voting for Trump. I hope the Republican party can find some decency, character, and ethical direction because right now, Comer, Jordan, Stefanik, Cotton and the rest of the rogues haven't done a damn thing for their constituents or the country. Their brand of revenge politics will hopefully grow tiresome. I think we need civil discourse from different points of view (a healthy GOP, not a vindictive one) and come to rational decisions that will have positive outcomes for ALL people, not just the rich. Repeal the Trump tax cuts. Leave women alone. End Citizens United. Instead of encouraging violence, encourage critical thinking. I know. I'm dreaming. End of rant.
The conundrum with being a conservative at this stage is that you DON'T have a party any more. The Republican party simply isn't conservative any longer. The extremists have spent the last couple of decades purging the GOP of "RINO's" (aka sensible conservatives) or driving them into hiding.
In my (moderate liberal opinion), if "conservatism" is to be preserved, the right-wing extremists need to be purged from their political offices everywhere. That means traditional conservatives holding their noses and voting for the Dem candidates where ever possible. If you're in a "purple" district, those seats are going to shift back to a mix within a cycle or two anyhow. Consider it political chemotherapy. Once the cancer has been excised from the body-politic, you can rebuild the conservative party from within, but you can't do it while they're there.
Calling them "M" or "F" won't change the fact that the "R" party infrastructure and fundraising supports them. There's no sunlight between them. If the "R's" don't like being called "M-Fs", they need to do the work to take their party back.
Well, on the other hand, we do have people like Haley, who has proven to be a very strong candidate. I think a lot of politicians out there are in it for themselves, and they get the impression right now that MAGAism is what's in. Should the tide shift, I predict many of them would drop MAGAism pretty quickly.
Brian, I respect your conservative ideals, even though I am far from conservative; but it seems to me that Biden is a decent, moderate Democrat who loves this country and respects its citizens. He knows how to negotiate and compromise because he’s been doing it his entire life. Please think about what not voting could do. Not voting or voting for a third-party candidate is going to usher us into fascism, and I’m sure you don’t want that. Also, keep in mind that although Nikki Haley is nowhere near as vulgar as Trump, she has agreed to implement Project 2025, which is essentially a means of turning America into a dictatorship. The woman can’t even admit what the Civil War was about, for God’s sake. I am a Democrat who was raised in a traditional Republican family, and believe me, we are not dealing with normal Republicans anymore. These folks have gone off the rails.
Guys, you can all calm down! I happen to live in a solidly blue state that hasn't elected a Republican president since 1988. My local district is red, but the winner gets all the delegates.
If you really dislike Trump and would not want to see him in office again then you must vote for Biden! It’s quite clear, in my view, there’s no other option and Biden is a good and decent president.
On a side note I am currently reading “Mom”. What a wonderful depiction of family life. I have fallen in love with your mom and the rest of your family. You have done so while giving a rich history, I being Caucasian, have never been introduced. Thank you for all you do. I wish all of your family peace and safety.
Hi Jay, for various reasons, I try not to use Amazon. How can I get a copy of your book? I sometimes order from Barnes & Noble. I also support my local bookstore and perhaps I can order it from there?
You’re much more optimistic about SCOTUS than I am. The six Republicans on the court (five of whom were appointed by presidents whom the majority of Americans voted against) are bought and paid for; every one of them lied under oath in their confirmation hearings, and (critically) now they know that we know all this. They’re an unelected super-legislature; they hate America more than half of ISIS does, and they’ve got no reason to pretend anymore.
I am not optimistic that SCOTUS will uphold Colorado. But even this Court is extremely unlikely to vote that Trump has absolute presidential immunity. Their rulings to date have not been particularly Trump friendly.
I hope you’re right. The thing is, I know John Roberts is the smartest political operative the Republican Party has, but I don’t think he’s really in charge anymore. We might be at the point in the movie where the secretive villain is found out so he just goes for it.
"The six Republicans on the court (five of whom were appointed by presidents whom the majority of Americans voted against) are bought and paid for..." I don't know about that - by virtue of their lifetime appointments, once they are ON the Court, the President who appointed them has no leverage. Trump, on the other hand, should he return to office and become Dictator-for-Life as he appears to be aiming for, will be able to do anything he wants to anyone he wants, up to and including death or imprisonment. I think they are smart enough to see that. So I can see them allowing him to stay on the ballot, while smacking down his "immunity from prosecution" attempt.
Jay, let me ask you - suppose you were a conservative Justice on the Supreme Court, what would you do? I know that the argument is very strong to disqualify Trump based on the 14th Amendment. Bill Barr recently published an opinion criticizing the Colorado Supreme Court, but the gist of his argument was that such a decision must be decided on the federal level, not the state. It seemed that he did not have an issue with the beef of the argument at all.
But on the other hand, this is a candidate that has roughly a third of the country ready to give up their lives for him. You don't think that disqualifying him from the ballot may raise the ire of tens of millions of people in this country and possibly put our country in danger?
This is a question that's really been troubling me.
If I were a strict textualist I would vote to uphold the Colorado opinion. But I don’t believe the extremists are actually textualists. They use the text of the law or Constitution when it is convenient to do so.
The moment we are too afraid to apply justice fairly to someone who has a cult and claims to be above the law is the moment our democracy ends
Let them get upset. Let them get violent, even. It’s better than the alternative and doing the right thing here by the law is our only option. Whoever decides to break the law because others applied the law to their dear leader will face their own consequences
I can live with them getting violent as long as it does not cause a civil war, which I think you may be underestimating the danger of happening. Don't forget that to MAGAts, Trump is like god. And we're talking about roughly 100,000,000 people, many of them gun owners. I think it's a recipe for disaster. Especially, now that more knowledgeable commenters here have pointed out, it's not even so clear-cut to remove him from the ballot based on the 14th amendment.
Definitely a valid point. Both scenarios would be a disaster. The best solution would obviously be to beat him at the polls, which I can't believe wouldn't happen anyway.
You have a point there. I hope (maybe I'm being too optimistic) that once is a joke, twice is a dope - and his MAGAts won't have the bandwidth to go through it all over again.
I think 100M is a gross exaggeration, Brian. Where did you get that number? Biden earned 81M votes; Trump 74M in 2020. I believe that split is even greater now FOR Biden. When it comes down to it, not that many Americans will fight (literally) for Trump, IMHO. They have seen what has happened to more than 1,000 insurrectionists from J6, after all. Personal ruin, and for what?
Many young people are angry at Biden for siding with Israel, as if Republicans wouldn’t do the same, and have vowed not to vote. They don’t understand what is at risk and the potential damage of staying home.
For me, the fact that Biden has been supportive of Israel is one of his biggest redeeming factors. I don't really understand the leftists who celebrated Hamas's butchering and rape of women and children, and then start crying crocodile tears when Israel tries to eradicate these terrorists from their border, while doing all that is practically possible to spare the life of the human shields that Hamas embeds themselves in, such as by designating target and evacuation zones and dropping leaflets. Hamas certainly didn't do that.
Well, Trump never managed to get less than around a 30% approval rating, even after all the terrible things he did. So that 30% of the population is with him, through fire and water. There are roughly 335M people in the US. 30% of 335M is 100M.
Those polls are usually based on info from likely voters, a far smaller subset than the nation's population as a whole. And there's a healthy chunk of that population who are ineligible to vote, mostly being those under 18 at election time.
All the more reason to get out and vote against Trump and all the MAGAt politicians. Any non-blue vote or no show, is a vote for Trump and fuels his cult. The closer the election numbers, the more ammunition for Trump’s next claims of voter fraud.
In no world will Trump accept a defeat in 2024. He’s already started planting seeds and is now even more desperate. Our best bet, to minimize a violent uprising, is to have an overwhelming majority turnout and win for democrats. Knowing the Democrats are firmly in control, would give rioters the most pause and fear of being prosecuted. Trump losing big in both his court cases and election bid, may not bring them to reality, but might just put the fear of serious consequences in them. They currently believe that Trump will regain power and protect them. That’s a hard sell from a prison cell and a total losers position. Without Trump’s constant lies and incitement, the vast majority of MAGAS, will lose their enthusiasm and their attention will wane. The government would be wise to have some new attention getter in the ready. Helping them to move on to a less violent and destructive obsession.
That's exactly what they're counting on--that fear will triumph over law. DJT's motives for his outrageous comments are so obviously based on just that.
Well, I fear for our country. I think it's safer to defeat him at the ballot box. Or maybe the Mossad can pull a Jeffrey Epstein on him. But I just can't see throwing him off the ballot. I don't think that trust in our institutions of democracy is strong enough to withstand such a drastic move.
Frankly it’s not. It’s about qualifications for office.
There’s nothing about putting an unqualified person on a ballot.
If it was unconstitutional to have unqualified candidates, states probably wouldn’t have write-in candidates.
And that’s not me saying it, that’s essentially the conclusion by left leaning state supreme courts in Minnesota and Michigan.
Colorado got around the argument because arguably Colorado law goes further than the Constitution and affirmatively requires candidates to be qualified.
So you think it would be better to keep him on the ballot and then if he wins, say sorry can’t serve?? We need to put the horse before the carriage. If he cannot serve, he should NOT be allowed on the ballot!
Okay--I stand corrected. What it does say is that, even if such a person wins, that person is prohibited from serving if he has been convicted of being part of an insurrection. Guess we just need to wait a bit, eh?
Well, since it is left to the individual states to determine how their local, state & federal elections will be run, there are plenty options yet to be determined.
After what we lived through on January 6, if the people responsible for that disaster are not punished in some way, in accordance with our constitution, we will never recover from this.
The biggest hurdle I see is though he is obviously directly connected to and inflamed Jan. 6th., he has NOT been convicted of a crime---as I am told a hundred times a day by his following. It seems improbable no court can even seem to catch him in perjury, though we've seen and heard him do it. Just to add, I am nervous about Joe Biden, especially if Haley pulls out a miracle.
It’s a common point. But the Constitution does not require a *conviction* for insurrection, it only requires that they have engaged in it. The disqualification is not a criminal penalty, so why require a criminal level of proof?
And several pontificators have claimed that since both the Colorado court and the Maine Sec State spent days of deliberation over whether Queensman had in fact engaged in insurrection, and having determined "yes he did", those two states are bound to follow the law as writ.
I could be persuaded otherwise if there appeared a superior argument but I've not seen it yet.
Oh, he lies all day every day, but he has not given, in court and under oath, a false answer to a direct question. That's what perjury is. He can go on and on and on with lies everywhere else and not be guilty of perjury. Get him on the stand after he swears to tell the truth and THEN he lies (which he absolutely WILL do - he cannot help himself) - THAT is perjury. And any attorney who allows him on the witness stand in his criminal trials will be committing malpractice.
I so despise Trump, I find it quite surprising that Trump and Biden are within striking distance of each other in the polls. How is it that Trump is slightly ahead of Biden??
After all is said and done, Biden is not as big of a disaster as I thought he would be. Despite wrecking the economy in his first year of office by throwing trillions of dollars at an already stimulated environment, he (or his Fed) has managed to by and large get things back under control. And I was very pleasantly surprised at his steadfast support for Israel in her time of crisis. So I would have really expected him to score higher in the polls.
I agree. Most of them are junk; they do not even specify the demographics that they are polling, and they poll small numbers of people, usually 1000 or fewer. How can that give us a picture of what America is thinking? It’s absolutely ridiculous.
Biden did not wreck the economy; the pandemic wrecked the economy, and he got it back under control by addressing the pandemic, which Trump was never able to do. Even now, our inflation rate is the lowest in the western world. There are still countries in Europe suffering through double digit inflation. Biden is a very very experienced legislator and negotiator.
You can blame it on the pandemic, but when Trump left office, we did not have the inflation of 2021-2022. And the first thing that Biden did when he came into office was poor trillions of dollars on the economy. I'm not saying that it was entirely his fault, but he definitely poured fuel on the fire, and I think (and I thought then too) that it was extremely short-sighted.
Again, to his credit, he's got things back under control. Or at least he can take credit for Powell doing so.
A lot of this inflation had to do with supply chain issues and other factors related to what the pandemic did economically. Here’s the key...the pandemic was a worldwide event, and it affected every country similarly, with shocking amounts of inflation, plus businesses shut down and people out of work. Had Trump stayed in office, it would’ve been even worse. Also keep in mind that those tariffs he put in place had a very negative effect on the economy. For reasons that I don’t understand, Biden has left some of those tariffs in place, but he was able to get things back under control with regard to inflation.
Again, I agree that it was a confluence of events. But inflation started shooting through the roof right after Biden's stimulus act. I recall columns from many respected, non-partisan analysts at the time who could not fathom how trillions of dollars being injected into the economy would not be harmful. And it was. It's pretty hard to ignore.
I always question who these pollsters are asking, and what is the sample size and where are they located and what did they really ask them? Polls make me nervous, but I try to not live and die by them! Biden, for me is a mixed bag and though I like Harris, she is a bit of an anchor b/c should he fall ill, well, people are thinking about her as President and THAT'S a freakout for the MAGA crowd and even some center liberals. He is LIGHT YEARS a better choice than Trump.
Brian, I look at it from a slightly different angle. What if Trump was 30 but had a third of the country ready to give up their lives for him. Do you think the Supreme Court should allow that?
In contrast, Jeff Tiedrich has posted on Substack several vids of tRump in Iowa...absolute gold, the man is mentally addled beyond most standards of compos mentis.
Your take on which way the Supremes go on the tRump cases is spot on, as YES, tRump goes to trial, and NO, he won't be booted off any state's ballot per 14th §3...we're not talking here about strict constitutional interpretation, but the POLITICS of it all. Give a boost to the rule of law, then give a boost to him and his supporters with a guaranteed place on the ballot.
Let's face it, tRump IS an exception when it comes to how hard to slap down someone of his criminal ilk, but how to admit of this and do relatively less damage to a democratic society is the crux of the matter, and I believe the above SCOTUS decisions is the best we can hope for.
Thank you once again for your in depth analysis and also for the optimistic options. I very much hope that you're right on those.
I believe that you are on target about the SCOTUS's rulings. As illogical as it might seem, the 14th amendment does not explicitly bar an insurrectionist from the ballot, only from holding office. Since such a disqualification can hypothetically be removed by Congress (and WOULD be if the GOP got a super-majority, although that won't happen) then I expect the SCOTUS to go full-metal textualist and kick the can down the road to see if Trump actually wins (God forbid). At that point I would expect the 20th amendment, Section 3, to be invoked to make the VP-elect the office-holder until Trump becomes qualified, if ever. If the justices do go down that route, it will open a whole new can of worms. Imagine a 32-year-old getting their name onto the ballot as a presidential candidate, winning the election, only to have to wait and let their VP execute the office until their 35th birthday.
In their abortion rulings, Leonard Leo's court is in full cry. It is going to take federal legislation embodying abortion as a fundamental right, or a new court that is willing to revisit Dobbs, to put the brakes on this. I must admit that I have always been confused about how "equal protection under the law" is being served by these Draconian abortion laws. I suppose that the courts could claim that IF a man ever gets pregnant that they would be subject to the same laws. Maybe the answer is going to come through a scientific breakthrough in which a developing fetus can easily be removed and grown outside the mother's womb in an artificial one. That would not be an abortion in any technical sense.
I'm glad Biden is actually showing some teeth. I'm watching the polling and it's not good. Is it too much to believe his circle finally got the memo that he's losing ground?
The polling this far out is not indicative of what the result of the election will be. But special elections, midterms, and general elections are. And on that count, Democrats appear very strong. I’m going with actual voting patterns over inaccurate polls.
I think the Biden admin has been holding back a little but will start ramping up finally for the election, they understand the info cycles and attention spans of this country
Letting ‘rump spin his wheels shows how unhinged he is, it will get worse as he has to sit in court for his criminal cases for like 7 months this year
We’ve been conditioned to hear something from a President several times throughout the day & night on social media, it feels odd without hearing something stressful or rambling, I think we will hear more from Biden and Dark Brandon especially the accomplishments of his administration
Hi Jay, I really appreciate all the hard work you do. Your pieces are smart, insightful, and have helped me push back against MAGA talking points coming from my family and coworkers.
By refusing to ban Nazi content from their platform, Substack undermines your hard work.
By allowing Nazis to monetize content on their platform, Substack lets them turn hate into funding.
By hosting legitimate, valuable content, such as yours alongside Nazi content, Substack gives Nazis the appearance of legitimacy.
I know switching hosts is not easy. I know it may come with a loss of subscription revenue. But staying on Substack means allowing them to use your subscription money to support Nazis. Please consider moving to a host that does not support Nazis.
This is the subject of a lot of internal discussion with substack and top writers, and I am waiting to see what comes of it. I don’t want to move to a platform that moderates content, however, because in my experience that lands pages like mine into more trouble than before. Facebook for example uses AI to do so and has put me in jail and threatened my page with penalties simply because I quote Nazis. I couldn’t write about fascism on any content moderated site without constantly getting dinged.
Sit tight. If there is a superior alternative platform I have not seen it yet. You'd want something just about the same in terms of function (if not better – Substacks phone app is less than optimal, for instance) with the added assurance that nazis will be thrown out as soon as they appear.
The other argument for staying is being forced to retreat by nazis is on its own not a good look. Sure, Substack is deliberately promoting nazis on its platform for its own profit, but long loud vehement protest from its established stackers could prove decisive. And that would be a famous win. If I had a stack I'd want to be part of that.
Oh, give me a break. The lefties who are busy crying about how substack platforms Nazis are the same ones who celebrated Hamas's butchering and rape of Israeli women and children. A little consistency, guys.
“The left’s” response to the actions of Hamas has nothing to do with my point and only serves to distract from my comment.
By trying to compare the two, you’ve demonstrated that you either don’t understand why Nazis should be de-platformed or you understand why they should and want them to have a platform anyways.
No, I am proving that the people who are showing "moral outrage" at the platforming of Nazis, are in fact complicit in supporting Nazi-like behavior themselves. So it's pretty hard to take such hypocritical people seriously, without the nagging suspicion that it's not the "Nazi" behavior that bothers them, but the fact that these "Nazis" identify with the Right.
So are you also campaigning to deplatform substack columnists who supported the 10/7 attacks as well? Just so you know, it's a large percentage of our academic institutions.
There is no world in which the D.C. Circuit will agree with him....but he seems to live in a different world and I have learned never to assume the courts will do "right". As proven by SCOTUS in kicking the can back to the states. They can not admit (as most MAGAs) that they were wrong. They are just going to let the states hammer it out - at all costs.
Former President Donald Trump on Saturday suggested the Civil War could have been avoided through “negotiation,” arguing that the fight to end slavery in the US was ultimately unnecessary and that Abraham Lincoln should have done more to avoid bloodshed.
In fact, there were a series of efforts before the Civil War began to cut a deal to save the Union. But the future of slavery in the South could not be settled through compromise and the nation went to war with itself. Trump did not say how he would have prevented the conflict, which he also called “so horrible but so fascinating.”
There are two things guaranteed to happen every single day:
1. the Sun will rise every morning and go down every evening.
2. America’s Presidential Accident and Disgrace, Liar Fraud Con Traitor Coward Donald ADOLF Trump, will lie or make a disgusting tweet.
I'm gonna need some Rolaids to get me through this year, aren't I? Deep inside, I have this horrible feeling that SCOTUS will see things in 'rumps favor. It just cant be said enough...every single American must not sit this election out...we all must get involved somehow. Call your local Democratic office....volunteer and by all means, Vote.
I'm the most conservative guy you'll ever meet (at least on this forum), and there is no way I'm voting for "dictator on day one" in 2024. The small circle of normies that he had in his first term have all left him. If Haley doesn't win the nomination, I'm either voting for Biden or I'm sitting it out. Still not sure yet.
It's fine to be a conservative, but it's not fine to be a fascist. And that's what voting for Trump would mean...fascism for America. "Sitting it out" is voting for Trump. I hope the Republican party can find some decency, character, and ethical direction because right now, Comer, Jordan, Stefanik, Cotton and the rest of the rogues haven't done a damn thing for their constituents or the country. Their brand of revenge politics will hopefully grow tiresome. I think we need civil discourse from different points of view (a healthy GOP, not a vindictive one) and come to rational decisions that will have positive outcomes for ALL people, not just the rich. Repeal the Trump tax cuts. Leave women alone. End Citizens United. Instead of encouraging violence, encourage critical thinking. I know. I'm dreaming. End of rant.
I officially 💖 this comment 100 times.
Well shucks! Thank you Janet… it’s frustrating to see common sense being denied. 🤷♀️
Yes, it is, and it’s everywhere around us.
You are 100% correct.
The conundrum with being a conservative at this stage is that you DON'T have a party any more. The Republican party simply isn't conservative any longer. The extremists have spent the last couple of decades purging the GOP of "RINO's" (aka sensible conservatives) or driving them into hiding.
In my (moderate liberal opinion), if "conservatism" is to be preserved, the right-wing extremists need to be purged from their political offices everywhere. That means traditional conservatives holding their noses and voting for the Dem candidates where ever possible. If you're in a "purple" district, those seats are going to shift back to a mix within a cycle or two anyhow. Consider it political chemotherapy. Once the cancer has been excised from the body-politic, you can rebuild the conservative party from within, but you can't do it while they're there.
Haley is a fascist. Strong maybe, but fascist for sure.
And she’ll say anything to get elected which means we don’t really know what she stands for
We need to stop putting an R next to Trump’s name (and other extremists) and put M for Maga instead. They are 2 different parties.
I’ve replaced the R with F for the Fascist Party.
Calling them "M" or "F" won't change the fact that the "R" party infrastructure and fundraising supports them. There's no sunlight between them. If the "R's" don't like being called "M-Fs", they need to do the work to take their party back.
Well, on the other hand, we do have people like Haley, who has proven to be a very strong candidate. I think a lot of politicians out there are in it for themselves, and they get the impression right now that MAGAism is what's in. Should the tide shift, I predict many of them would drop MAGAism pretty quickly.
Haley’s stance on abortion is going to be a problem politically, just like all these other knuckleheads!
Haley couldn’t admit the cause of the civil war. That just makes me wonder what else she believes but won’t admit.
Exactly
Brian, I respect your conservative ideals, even though I am far from conservative; but it seems to me that Biden is a decent, moderate Democrat who loves this country and respects its citizens. He knows how to negotiate and compromise because he’s been doing it his entire life. Please think about what not voting could do. Not voting or voting for a third-party candidate is going to usher us into fascism, and I’m sure you don’t want that. Also, keep in mind that although Nikki Haley is nowhere near as vulgar as Trump, she has agreed to implement Project 2025, which is essentially a means of turning America into a dictatorship. The woman can’t even admit what the Civil War was about, for God’s sake. I am a Democrat who was raised in a traditional Republican family, and believe me, we are not dealing with normal Republicans anymore. These folks have gone off the rails.
Haley has also stated she will pardon Trump.
Yes, that too, which is completely unacceptable.
Brian, please don’t sit this one out--it’s the same as voting for trump.
Guys, you can all calm down! I happen to live in a solidly blue state that hasn't elected a Republican president since 1988. My local district is red, but the winner gets all the delegates.
To sit out, when you dislike Trump, is to allow him to win.
Brian, by sitting it out you give Trump half of a vote.
If you really dislike Trump and would not want to see him in office again then you must vote for Biden! It’s quite clear, in my view, there’s no other option and Biden is a good and decent president.
A vote for Biden is a vote for YOU !❣️!
What are you seeing amongst your similar-minded circle of friends?
I think I’m gonna need something stronger than Rolaids, Susan. 😁
😂 right! I’m saving a Xanax! Ha might need to get the script refilled!
Vote, people. Your life DOES depend on it - there is no "as if" about it.
On a side note I am currently reading “Mom”. What a wonderful depiction of family life. I have fallen in love with your mom and the rest of your family. You have done so while giving a rich history, I being Caucasian, have never been introduced. Thank you for all you do. I wish all of your family peace and safety.
Thank you for reading my book!
Hi Jay, for various reasons, I try not to use Amazon. How can I get a copy of your book? I sometimes order from Barnes & Noble. I also support my local bookstore and perhaps I can order it from there?
You’re much more optimistic about SCOTUS than I am. The six Republicans on the court (five of whom were appointed by presidents whom the majority of Americans voted against) are bought and paid for; every one of them lied under oath in their confirmation hearings, and (critically) now they know that we know all this. They’re an unelected super-legislature; they hate America more than half of ISIS does, and they’ve got no reason to pretend anymore.
I am not optimistic that SCOTUS will uphold Colorado. But even this Court is extremely unlikely to vote that Trump has absolute presidential immunity. Their rulings to date have not been particularly Trump friendly.
I hope you’re right. The thing is, I know John Roberts is the smartest political operative the Republican Party has, but I don’t think he’s really in charge anymore. We might be at the point in the movie where the secretive villain is found out so he just goes for it.
"The six Republicans on the court (five of whom were appointed by presidents whom the majority of Americans voted against) are bought and paid for..." I don't know about that - by virtue of their lifetime appointments, once they are ON the Court, the President who appointed them has no leverage. Trump, on the other hand, should he return to office and become Dictator-for-Life as he appears to be aiming for, will be able to do anything he wants to anyone he wants, up to and including death or imprisonment. I think they are smart enough to see that. So I can see them allowing him to stay on the ballot, while smacking down his "immunity from prosecution" attempt.
Jay, let me ask you - suppose you were a conservative Justice on the Supreme Court, what would you do? I know that the argument is very strong to disqualify Trump based on the 14th Amendment. Bill Barr recently published an opinion criticizing the Colorado Supreme Court, but the gist of his argument was that such a decision must be decided on the federal level, not the state. It seemed that he did not have an issue with the beef of the argument at all.
But on the other hand, this is a candidate that has roughly a third of the country ready to give up their lives for him. You don't think that disqualifying him from the ballot may raise the ire of tens of millions of people in this country and possibly put our country in danger?
This is a question that's really been troubling me.
If I were a strict textualist I would vote to uphold the Colorado opinion. But I don’t believe the extremists are actually textualists. They use the text of the law or Constitution when it is convenient to do so.
I wonder about that. I guess we'll see!
The moment we are too afraid to apply justice fairly to someone who has a cult and claims to be above the law is the moment our democracy ends
Let them get upset. Let them get violent, even. It’s better than the alternative and doing the right thing here by the law is our only option. Whoever decides to break the law because others applied the law to their dear leader will face their own consequences
And in time, things may settle
Exactly! Thanks for putting it out there.
I can live with them getting violent as long as it does not cause a civil war, which I think you may be underestimating the danger of happening. Don't forget that to MAGAts, Trump is like god. And we're talking about roughly 100,000,000 people, many of them gun owners. I think it's a recipe for disaster. Especially, now that more knowledgeable commenters here have pointed out, it's not even so clear-cut to remove him from the ballot based on the 14th amendment.
I hear you, but I’d rather they start an illegitimate war over their anti-American, anti-democratic views while we still control America
Rather than a situation where he’s King and controls the military and we are all powerless
He will only be more dangerous with power
Definitely a valid point. Both scenarios would be a disaster. The best solution would obviously be to beat him at the polls, which I can't believe wouldn't happen anyway.
Brian, beating him at the polls will just start another stolen election fiasco. It won’t matter if he loses like that again.
You have a point there. I hope (maybe I'm being too optimistic) that once is a joke, twice is a dope - and his MAGAts won't have the bandwidth to go through it all over again.
Definitely hoping
I think 100M is a gross exaggeration, Brian. Where did you get that number? Biden earned 81M votes; Trump 74M in 2020. I believe that split is even greater now FOR Biden. When it comes down to it, not that many Americans will fight (literally) for Trump, IMHO. They have seen what has happened to more than 1,000 insurrectionists from J6, after all. Personal ruin, and for what?
Many young people are angry at Biden for siding with Israel, as if Republicans wouldn’t do the same, and have vowed not to vote. They don’t understand what is at risk and the potential damage of staying home.
For me, the fact that Biden has been supportive of Israel is one of his biggest redeeming factors. I don't really understand the leftists who celebrated Hamas's butchering and rape of women and children, and then start crying crocodile tears when Israel tries to eradicate these terrorists from their border, while doing all that is practically possible to spare the life of the human shields that Hamas embeds themselves in, such as by designating target and evacuation zones and dropping leaflets. Hamas certainly didn't do that.
I couldn’t agree more.
Well, Trump never managed to get less than around a 30% approval rating, even after all the terrible things he did. So that 30% of the population is with him, through fire and water. There are roughly 335M people in the US. 30% of 335M is 100M.
Those polls are usually based on info from likely voters, a far smaller subset than the nation's population as a whole. And there's a healthy chunk of that population who are ineligible to vote, mostly being those under 18 at election time.
All the more reason to get out and vote against Trump and all the MAGAt politicians. Any non-blue vote or no show, is a vote for Trump and fuels his cult. The closer the election numbers, the more ammunition for Trump’s next claims of voter fraud.
In no world will Trump accept a defeat in 2024. He’s already started planting seeds and is now even more desperate. Our best bet, to minimize a violent uprising, is to have an overwhelming majority turnout and win for democrats. Knowing the Democrats are firmly in control, would give rioters the most pause and fear of being prosecuted. Trump losing big in both his court cases and election bid, may not bring them to reality, but might just put the fear of serious consequences in them. They currently believe that Trump will regain power and protect them. That’s a hard sell from a prison cell and a total losers position. Without Trump’s constant lies and incitement, the vast majority of MAGAS, will lose their enthusiasm and their attention will wane. The government would be wise to have some new attention getter in the ready. Helping them to move on to a less violent and destructive obsession.
That's exactly what they're counting on--that fear will triumph over law. DJT's motives for his outrageous comments are so obviously based on just that.
Of course it will, but might does not make right!
Well, I fear for our country. I think it's safer to defeat him at the ballot box. Or maybe the Mossad can pull a Jeffrey Epstein on him. But I just can't see throwing him off the ballot. I don't think that trust in our institutions of democracy is strong enough to withstand such a drastic move.
Honestly--"throwing him off the ballot"?? This is not a whimsical decision--it is clearly the law, according to the 14th amendment.
Frankly it’s not. It’s about qualifications for office.
There’s nothing about putting an unqualified person on a ballot.
If it was unconstitutional to have unqualified candidates, states probably wouldn’t have write-in candidates.
And that’s not me saying it, that’s essentially the conclusion by left leaning state supreme courts in Minnesota and Michigan.
Colorado got around the argument because arguably Colorado law goes further than the Constitution and affirmatively requires candidates to be qualified.
So you think it would be better to keep him on the ballot and then if he wins, say sorry can’t serve?? We need to put the horse before the carriage. If he cannot serve, he should NOT be allowed on the ballot!
Hey! I thought you just said that the law is the law!
Okay--I stand corrected. What it does say is that, even if such a person wins, that person is prohibited from serving if he has been convicted of being part of an insurrection. Guess we just need to wait a bit, eh?
Well, since it is left to the individual states to determine how their local, state & federal elections will be run, there are plenty options yet to be determined.
After what we lived through on January 6, if the people responsible for that disaster are not punished in some way, in accordance with our constitution, we will never recover from this.
And whose fault is that? He belongs on the ballot as much as Barrack Obama. The law is the law.
Teri Kanefield had some interesting perspectives/arguments on the 14AS3 issue yesterday:
https://terikanefield.com/section-3-and-the-spirit-of-liberty/
Bottom line, I don't think we can't depend on it, I don't think we can depend on SCOTUS. It's up to all of us to vote and do what we can to GOTV.
The biggest hurdle I see is though he is obviously directly connected to and inflamed Jan. 6th., he has NOT been convicted of a crime---as I am told a hundred times a day by his following. It seems improbable no court can even seem to catch him in perjury, though we've seen and heard him do it. Just to add, I am nervous about Joe Biden, especially if Haley pulls out a miracle.
It’s a common point. But the Constitution does not require a *conviction* for insurrection, it only requires that they have engaged in it. The disqualification is not a criminal penalty, so why require a criminal level of proof?
And several pontificators have claimed that since both the Colorado court and the Maine Sec State spent days of deliberation over whether Queensman had in fact engaged in insurrection, and having determined "yes he did", those two states are bound to follow the law as writ.
I could be persuaded otherwise if there appeared a superior argument but I've not seen it yet.
Oh, he lies all day every day, but he has not given, in court and under oath, a false answer to a direct question. That's what perjury is. He can go on and on and on with lies everywhere else and not be guilty of perjury. Get him on the stand after he swears to tell the truth and THEN he lies (which he absolutely WILL do - he cannot help himself) - THAT is perjury. And any attorney who allows him on the witness stand in his criminal trials will be committing malpractice.
I so despise Trump, I find it quite surprising that Trump and Biden are within striking distance of each other in the polls. How is it that Trump is slightly ahead of Biden??
After all is said and done, Biden is not as big of a disaster as I thought he would be. Despite wrecking the economy in his first year of office by throwing trillions of dollars at an already stimulated environment, he (or his Fed) has managed to by and large get things back under control. And I was very pleasantly surprised at his steadfast support for Israel in her time of crisis. So I would have really expected him to score higher in the polls.
I don’t believe the polls.
I agree. Most of them are junk; they do not even specify the demographics that they are polling, and they poll small numbers of people, usually 1000 or fewer. How can that give us a picture of what America is thinking? It’s absolutely ridiculous.
Biden did not wreck the economy; the pandemic wrecked the economy, and he got it back under control by addressing the pandemic, which Trump was never able to do. Even now, our inflation rate is the lowest in the western world. There are still countries in Europe suffering through double digit inflation. Biden is a very very experienced legislator and negotiator.
You can blame it on the pandemic, but when Trump left office, we did not have the inflation of 2021-2022. And the first thing that Biden did when he came into office was poor trillions of dollars on the economy. I'm not saying that it was entirely his fault, but he definitely poured fuel on the fire, and I think (and I thought then too) that it was extremely short-sighted.
Again, to his credit, he's got things back under control. Or at least he can take credit for Powell doing so.
A lot of this inflation had to do with supply chain issues and other factors related to what the pandemic did economically. Here’s the key...the pandemic was a worldwide event, and it affected every country similarly, with shocking amounts of inflation, plus businesses shut down and people out of work. Had Trump stayed in office, it would’ve been even worse. Also keep in mind that those tariffs he put in place had a very negative effect on the economy. For reasons that I don’t understand, Biden has left some of those tariffs in place, but he was able to get things back under control with regard to inflation.
Again, I agree that it was a confluence of events. But inflation started shooting through the roof right after Biden's stimulus act. I recall columns from many respected, non-partisan analysts at the time who could not fathom how trillions of dollars being injected into the economy would not be harmful. And it was. It's pretty hard to ignore.
I always question who these pollsters are asking, and what is the sample size and where are they located and what did they really ask them? Polls make me nervous, but I try to not live and die by them! Biden, for me is a mixed bag and though I like Harris, she is a bit of an anchor b/c should he fall ill, well, people are thinking about her as President and THAT'S a freakout for the MAGA crowd and even some center liberals. He is LIGHT YEARS a better choice than Trump.
That's true. Biden is clearly a way better choice than Trump. But Harris and Trump is a much tougher call.
Harris is miles ahead of Trump, too. Heck, even my dog is a better pick than Trump for president.
I would probably elect your dog over Harris too.
Brian, I look at it from a slightly different angle. What if Trump was 30 but had a third of the country ready to give up their lives for him. Do you think the Supreme Court should allow that?
You really do a great job with these updates and synopsis’s of our current political dilemma
Thank you for highlighting Biden’s speech.
In contrast, Jeff Tiedrich has posted on Substack several vids of tRump in Iowa...absolute gold, the man is mentally addled beyond most standards of compos mentis.
Sounds cool! Link?
https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/the-american-president-and-some-gibbering?r=1pdf3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Speaking of hilarious videos, you can never watch Kimmel's Obama/Trump mash up too often!
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/pOgasHZH
Your take on which way the Supremes go on the tRump cases is spot on, as YES, tRump goes to trial, and NO, he won't be booted off any state's ballot per 14th §3...we're not talking here about strict constitutional interpretation, but the POLITICS of it all. Give a boost to the rule of law, then give a boost to him and his supporters with a guaranteed place on the ballot.
Let's face it, tRump IS an exception when it comes to how hard to slap down someone of his criminal ilk, but how to admit of this and do relatively less damage to a democratic society is the crux of the matter, and I believe the above SCOTUS decisions is the best we can hope for.
P.S. He WILL lose to Joe Biden in November.
True, but he will claim he won and the election is rigged.
Thank you once again for your in depth analysis and also for the optimistic options. I very much hope that you're right on those.
I believe that you are on target about the SCOTUS's rulings. As illogical as it might seem, the 14th amendment does not explicitly bar an insurrectionist from the ballot, only from holding office. Since such a disqualification can hypothetically be removed by Congress (and WOULD be if the GOP got a super-majority, although that won't happen) then I expect the SCOTUS to go full-metal textualist and kick the can down the road to see if Trump actually wins (God forbid). At that point I would expect the 20th amendment, Section 3, to be invoked to make the VP-elect the office-holder until Trump becomes qualified, if ever. If the justices do go down that route, it will open a whole new can of worms. Imagine a 32-year-old getting their name onto the ballot as a presidential candidate, winning the election, only to have to wait and let their VP execute the office until their 35th birthday.
In their abortion rulings, Leonard Leo's court is in full cry. It is going to take federal legislation embodying abortion as a fundamental right, or a new court that is willing to revisit Dobbs, to put the brakes on this. I must admit that I have always been confused about how "equal protection under the law" is being served by these Draconian abortion laws. I suppose that the courts could claim that IF a man ever gets pregnant that they would be subject to the same laws. Maybe the answer is going to come through a scientific breakthrough in which a developing fetus can easily be removed and grown outside the mother's womb in an artificial one. That would not be an abortion in any technical sense.
I am enjoying your book! Thank you for all you do.
I'm glad Biden is actually showing some teeth. I'm watching the polling and it's not good. Is it too much to believe his circle finally got the memo that he's losing ground?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
The polling this far out is not indicative of what the result of the election will be. But special elections, midterms, and general elections are. And on that count, Democrats appear very strong. I’m going with actual voting patterns over inaccurate polls.
I think the Biden admin has been holding back a little but will start ramping up finally for the election, they understand the info cycles and attention spans of this country
Letting ‘rump spin his wheels shows how unhinged he is, it will get worse as he has to sit in court for his criminal cases for like 7 months this year
We’ve been conditioned to hear something from a President several times throughout the day & night on social media, it feels odd without hearing something stressful or rambling, I think we will hear more from Biden and Dark Brandon especially the accomplishments of his administration
Hi Jay, I really appreciate all the hard work you do. Your pieces are smart, insightful, and have helped me push back against MAGA talking points coming from my family and coworkers.
By refusing to ban Nazi content from their platform, Substack undermines your hard work.
By allowing Nazis to monetize content on their platform, Substack lets them turn hate into funding.
By hosting legitimate, valuable content, such as yours alongside Nazi content, Substack gives Nazis the appearance of legitimacy.
I know switching hosts is not easy. I know it may come with a loss of subscription revenue. But staying on Substack means allowing them to use your subscription money to support Nazis. Please consider moving to a host that does not support Nazis.
This is the subject of a lot of internal discussion with substack and top writers, and I am waiting to see what comes of it. I don’t want to move to a platform that moderates content, however, because in my experience that lands pages like mine into more trouble than before. Facebook for example uses AI to do so and has put me in jail and threatened my page with penalties simply because I quote Nazis. I couldn’t write about fascism on any content moderated site without constantly getting dinged.
Sit tight. If there is a superior alternative platform I have not seen it yet. You'd want something just about the same in terms of function (if not better – Substacks phone app is less than optimal, for instance) with the added assurance that nazis will be thrown out as soon as they appear.
The other argument for staying is being forced to retreat by nazis is on its own not a good look. Sure, Substack is deliberately promoting nazis on its platform for its own profit, but long loud vehement protest from its established stackers could prove decisive. And that would be a famous win. If I had a stack I'd want to be part of that.
Jay, thank you for taking the time to reply and for providing some insight into your perspective. I appreciate that it isn’t an easy decision to make.
Oh, give me a break. The lefties who are busy crying about how substack platforms Nazis are the same ones who celebrated Hamas's butchering and rape of Israeli women and children. A little consistency, guys.
“The left’s” response to the actions of Hamas has nothing to do with my point and only serves to distract from my comment.
By trying to compare the two, you’ve demonstrated that you either don’t understand why Nazis should be de-platformed or you understand why they should and want them to have a platform anyways.
No, I am proving that the people who are showing "moral outrage" at the platforming of Nazis, are in fact complicit in supporting Nazi-like behavior themselves. So it's pretty hard to take such hypocritical people seriously, without the nagging suspicion that it's not the "Nazi" behavior that bothers them, but the fact that these "Nazis" identify with the Right.
So you’re trying to associate my comment with a strawman group of “lefties” and attack them instead of discussing anything I’ve actually said.
So are you also campaigning to deplatform substack columnists who supported the 10/7 attacks as well? Just so you know, it's a large percentage of our academic institutions.
Again, you’re setting up a strawman and arguing against that instead of engaging the actual content of my comment.
There is no world in which the D.C. Circuit will agree with him....but he seems to live in a different world and I have learned never to assume the courts will do "right". As proven by SCOTUS in kicking the can back to the states. They can not admit (as most MAGAs) that they were wrong. They are just going to let the states hammer it out - at all costs.
Is there any possibility of your book being available at other retailers in the future? I try to avoid amazon whenever I can. 🙂
Yes, I am working with my publishers to get it up in bookstores globally. More on that soon.
I was just about to ask the same question. I like to buy from my local independent book store.
Former President Donald Trump on Saturday suggested the Civil War could have been avoided through “negotiation,” arguing that the fight to end slavery in the US was ultimately unnecessary and that Abraham Lincoln should have done more to avoid bloodshed.
In fact, there were a series of efforts before the Civil War began to cut a deal to save the Union. But the future of slavery in the South could not be settled through compromise and the nation went to war with itself. Trump did not say how he would have prevented the conflict, which he also called “so horrible but so fascinating.”
There are two things guaranteed to happen every single day:
1. the Sun will rise every morning and go down every evening.
2. America’s Presidential Accident and Disgrace, Liar Fraud Con Traitor Coward Donald ADOLF Trump, will lie or make a disgusting tweet.
Three J6 fugitives from Lakeland, FL - Pollock, Pollock and Hutchinson - were caught and taken into custody yesterday!!!
https://www.wesh.com/amp/article/lakeland-jan-6-fugitives-florida-ranch-3-years-insurrection-fbi/46302808
MAGAt Jonny is going to be sentenced to at least 15 years in prison!
I would sure love to know the name of the ranch and whether anyone with the ranch was arrested for harboring fugitives!