94 Comments

I think, if Trump did show up, he would get more than booed. He might get clobbered with camshafts and tire irons.

As for Florida - how would they feel if the neighboring states closed borders, citing medical emergency, and turned Florida into one giant quarantine state? I mean if DeSantis wants more Republican voters to die of COVID - fine. Everyone else should vaccinate and do whatever they can to get the hell out of there ASAP.

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Sep 17, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

I was mystified by how many Republicans died during the pandemic due to their leadership's callous contempt for the vaccine. Those were their voters. The Republican Party is already the minority party and especially now after killing off so many of their own voters with their rhetoric. What in the world are they thinking? Do they not have the intelligence to wonder where their votes will be coming from?

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It’s a little baffling that Republicans went almost 50 years on just two principles--racism and no taxes for rich people--and when they finally decided to pick up a third it was the oddly specific “The host of The Apprentice was right when he said COVID-19 was no big deal.”

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Vaccines is one topic where the base has been so poisoned that they even booed TFG when he tried to claim credit for their creation at a rally.

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To encourage their base to vaccinate means admitting they were spinning a false narrative. And we know they are not capable of that.

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This incarnation of today’s Republican Party is not really known for thinking strategically. Unfortunately, we’re in this mess because an earlier generation of GOP played the long game.

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Votes don’t matter to the GQP anymore because they’ve got it sown up in so many places with gerrymandering, voter suppression and intimidating election workers. The GQP doesn’t even bother with a party platform anymore.

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Their plan for the future doesn't involve needing votes to be in power - they've given up on democracy as a viable way to get and maintain power. They'll continue to gerrymander, suppress votes by anyone who doesn't support them and use the state legislatures to take actions to allow them to overturn any election results they don't like. They're fascists - and fascists believe in autocracy and ruling by any means necessary - including force.

As David Frum prophetically said in his 2018 book "Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic", "If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy.”

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All good, but very scary points.

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DeSantis can afford to lose quite a few voters; he won the governorship by something like 0 percentage point. And he is callous enough to actually think that way.

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That was mostly due to gerrymandering (it does affect statewide races too) and pathetic turnout—plus Crist was a crap candidate. So if people actually show up it’s a different story—Obama won Florida twice.

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Maybe gerrymandering affects statewide races if people are more interested in the “down ballot.” But DEsantis and his commie / socialist fear campaign made big inroads in the areas of the state where voters have connections to countries with such dictatorships. The GOP saw its success and used it in other places. I’m a fair distance from FL but we see the impact on our Cuban population which tends to be socially conservative & business oriented.

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10 percentage points, not 0...

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That was then, this is now. Just look at Jacksonville to see the change in attitudes of Floridians.

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Yes, in the mid-terms Jacksonville tossed their Republican mayor in at least parts due to complaints about crime.

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It was 20 points.

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Actually, last time he won was by a big margin. First time it was close.

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?? To think Trump would get _booed_ by a crowd of UAW workers is bizarre...his campaign-rally crowds are full of union shirts and ball caps. His appeal is social not economic; it's about tribalism not policy.

(All of which he realized earlier and better better than most of his opponents in either party, hence 2016.)

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Those Union shirts aren’t necessarily Union members. Trump has been known to seed his crowds with fakes.

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That's....not a good argument.

(Is downright Trumpian actually -- has a big "there are many books saying that the election was rigged" energy.)

I attended part of a Trump rally in 2016, which was alarming enough to get me to start listening to some individual Trump fans. That wasn't and still isn't a pleasant experience. It has though revealed just how poorly our side of the culture war understands Trump-fandom.

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Additionally I’d point out much of what TFG does is all about marketing and keeping his brand in view . . . DeSantis is attempting the same. That means the people in plain view behind the stage/dais/podium will be chosen to maximize the message . . . it won’t be random.

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Oh I understand them, I just believe they ought to be transparent. Seeding rallies with fake participants is not transparent. It is however the tactic of one who is a skilled marketer.

Seriously, if they want progressives to listen to them, then they need to understand where progressives stand. As a transgender woman, I am open to understanding why they have certain viewpoints, but when those stray . . . into open denial of my humanity, even to the point of attempting to legally erase my existence, that is a bridge too far.

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Oh, it’s more cynical than that—he made sure his base was vaxxed FIRST early on, then went anti-vax, plus it’s only ok for those over 65 to get this new one according to Lapdog and DeathSentence, so yeah, the base is protected yet again. But we have our appointments for tomorrow already! Vote blue!

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Sadly, a lot of blue collar workers have been taken in by Trump’s repeated lies. Who knows how the picketers would react if he showed up at the picket line?

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My worries exactly, Robert. I am in the Detroit area, and it's unclear how the strikers would respond to Trump.

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I agree - it amazes me how many unskilled blue collar workers see him as their savior. Showing up at a picket line would support that idea.

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I might agree with this sentiment if there weren't so many people who have neither access to vaccination in a state that makes it much more difficult than most, nor the means to move. Ultimately, those most likely to be the most severely impacted by fascist anti-vax campaigns will not be served at all by "serves-em-right" responses to those in power.

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It's why the GOP is also known as the "Leopards Eating People's Faces Party", with DeSantis being a perfect example of the "leadership" on offer.

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Sep 17, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

DeSantis is a very dangerous, deranged individual. He is putting his beliefs before that of his citizens. The whole GOP and their America First Agenda is so, so dangerous.

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I think it's worse. I don't think these are his beliefs. I think he's a cynical opportunist.

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💯

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There are people who live only to play power games. A lot of CEOs are like that, but most don't propagate evil. FWIW, I recall one book/study that showed that the high-powered people who play those games are mostly unhappy in their personal lives.

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I just saw your post, Mary - obviously, I agree!!!

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I have a Facebook acquaintance who thinks DeS is wonderful because he ‘opened the churches’ and he would willingly get Covid and die for his rights. As usual, the hell with anyone else.

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May his will be realized

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What garbage idiocies people pick in which to put their entire belief. Sad.

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DeSantis is an opportunist. He has no beliefs. Most dangerous situation.

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Sep 17, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

The irony of TFG suggesting that a gag order would prevent him from defending himself against the charges when he keeps trying to delay the court cases which are the processes specifically designed for him to ... (checks notes) defend himself against the charges.

It says a lot about the cult that they don't see this very obvious contradiction.

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Jay, I'm a huge fan of your work but have to disagree with your portrayal of Kevin McCarthy's "understable frustration" at being in "such a tough spot". This framing shifts the focus of attention toward one individual, when it's really our representative form of government that is in a tough spot and needs to be defended.

What the MAGA faction seeks is chaos and disruption, targeted at the very heart of our democratic republic. This is not Speaker McCarthy's problem. Mr. McCarthy's impotent leadership IS the problem, as it empowers those who proudly support convicted January 6 conspirators and openly welcome civil war.

Everyone has to stop talking about MAGA extremists in the House as though they're ordinary politicians, just another minority voting bloc like Libertarians or the Tea Party. They are not. They are a threat to the institution itself. And so long as Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the House, that threat will persist and grow.

(As you know, there's a network of ordinary citizens advocating for a bipartisan coalition in the House to remove Mr. McCarthy and elect a centrist Republican Speaker like Don Bacon (R-NE) who owes nothing to the exremists. All who value our House of Representatives are encouraged to pitch in to help end the chaos, hand MAGA forces a stinging defeat, and restore normal order to the chamber. Learn more here: www.FeathersOfHope.net or jerryweiss.substack.com )

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Jay - do Moderna and Pfizer have a defamation case against DeSantis or the FL surgeon general?

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I think they’d have broad 1st amendment rights here that would essentially immunize them.

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Ah, they’d have to show actual malice vs negligence. That’s the 1A protection for public officials.

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Not sure where 1st amendment comes in here. They can’t say a private companies product causes higher rates of heart disease if they know that to be false. You’d have to prove they know that to be false but they myth has been roundly debunked. It seems like all the elements of defamation are there (well, they have to show loss of revenue perhaps?)

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Why threaten a gag order for Trump if your NOT going to enforce it....seems HE is running this show. Put his ass in jail and he won't be able to get his lying messages out and I bet he will also want a "speedy" trial. Enough is enough with him. So ridiculous.

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Let’s be precise here. The prosecution has moved for a gag order. The judge has not ruled on it. There is no threat by her to enforce it, because it doesn’t yet exist.

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He will NEVER want a speedy trial. Delay, delay, delay! Putting him in jail means more delay for the case, plus extra fundraising for hill!

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The best example of the need for a gag order is what Trump is being charged for!😂

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LactualOL at the notion of Trump joining a picket line. The only reason to report that he said that is to ask him later why he didn’t do it, which no one in our six- and seven-figure political media will actually do because they’ve just sort of decided that Trump saying things he never does is cool and OK and you’re the nerd if you think it matters. (Which, of course, it doesn’t actually, thanks precisely to our media courtiers’ inattention. Well played, I guess.)

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I tend to agree with you.

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Spot on!!!!

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Sep 17, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

Wow, sounds like a week of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t”

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Do you think Judge Chutkin will move up the date like she said she would vs agreeing to the narrow gag order?

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I just don’t know how much she could. It’s already an ambitious trial schedule. Perhaps by a week, and see what he does?

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Maybe not granting delays willy nilly like some judges & providing her decisions on filings/motions promptly.

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Even if she did, she could only do it once, without causing reversible error, and Trump would just triple down on his propaganda.

Either Trump is sanctioned as any other criminal defendant would be, or the case is over.

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I don’t think Judge Chutkan is being given a real choice. She should order Trump’s presence in court for the hearing on Smith’s motion, and she should make it personally clear to him that his violating any order she enters can be considered contempt of court and punishable by incarceration. Bullies only understand being punched in the mouth and tasting their own blood.

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Yes. Perfect solution.

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Jay - I would like to hear your thoughts on two stories from last week that, taken together, should give us concern about the Trump trials. The first was the bio piece on Mitt Romney and the quotes that sub rosa numerous senators and representatives admitted to being afraid to vote for impeachment or even oppose Trump for fear of retaliation or harassment to their families. The other was the story on Jack Smith's motion to restrict the names of persons harassed or threatened as a result of Trump's persistent social media harangues. What is the chance (or the likelihood) that jurors selected for those trials will follow the lead of those senators and representatives and decline to vote to convict, not on the evidence but on the fear that they or their families may be targeted after the trial is over? Isn't that the very thing that happened with Ruby Freeman and Shayhe Moss?

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This is one of the reasons that Fani Willis has moved to keep the names of the jurors secret. It’s a real problem when those charged with safeguarding our democracy—whether it’s prosecutors, judges, jurors or witnesses—are afraid to come forward. This has happened before in mob trials, and so we can learn a lot about how to protect the system and people against undue pressure or threats.

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This opinion article explains so much about how Trump has caused disorder and disrespect, not only in the U.S. but on the international stage: https://bandyxlee.substack.com/p/psychic-contagion?r=4dxvl&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post&fbclid=IwAR3VrPYekTtJLYNTnDuhFNeRbFDY0NsT9LbLufIbOV8ukal9Ut9-8UkT-ko_aem_AQQ82EmRldcgIhtDf6-0L5CkCp6_Wbuiudc-AaovXt2HyJXDt-ApnCkj-j8HfSKjl1Q

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Wow. Thank you for this link. These paragraphs I found quite striking, especially the transmittal of psychosis to healthy individuals:

“Shared psychosis” is a psychosocial phenomenon that has been researched and described since the mid-nineteenth century, then called “folie communiqué,” or “contagious madness.” It results from a person with severe mental symptoms holding an influential position in a dyad (“folie à deux”), family, group, or nation (“folie à millions”). Having worked largely in public hospital and prison settings, where there are high concentrations of severe mental disturbances that go untreated, I have seen this phenomenon a good deal.

Shared psychosis can take the form of transmission to previously healthy individuals; mutual reinforcement of previously ill persons; activation of predisposed individuals; or latent “conversion” of previously resistant individuals. When the psychosocial phenomenon is widespread—affecting not just a household but a nation or the world—then all four types are observed simultaneously.

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Jay, why do you thin Biden has come out about the auto strike and not the AcTors/Writers strike. Exponentially more workers affected, and he’s been silent?

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That’s an excellent question. It may be the optics of it, which is a bad answer, but I fear it is the case. Many Americans wrongly view “creative” workers as entitled and spoiled, while “manufacturing” workers are more salt of the earth hard working. Biden might feel he would do more to hurt the cause by speaking out against the studio execs. More cynically, some of them are probably big dollar donors to the Democrats. I would love to know the answer! (By the way, how are you? We haven’t hung out since the Resistance pot luck back in my old apartment!)

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Actually he has spoken out. It was reported in May and in again in July. Perhaps there is less attention, partly due to not as much coverage. There is less direct financial impact for most of the country & everyone (meaning left, right & center) lives to criticize Biden.

Most of the media ignored this also: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/joe-biden-taking-major-step-151854694.html

I’ve seen reporting that the impact on the CA economy may now be reaching $5B. A few months ago it was predicted to be ending by about now. I think there are less than 200K members of those unions.

The UAW has 300K-400K members, predominantly in the auto industry. A strike against the “Big 3” auto industry could very quickly reduce national GDP and surpass $5B in losses to the economy in about 10 days (according to Anderson Economic Group, East Lansing) because of connected industries and all the local economies that get caught up in the ripple affect.

The UAW opted for a more unpredictable ‘rolling strike’ which will also wreak havoc on ‘just in time’ management of inventory/supplies. This should delay the some of the most damaging impact both for UAW members & the economy.

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My guess is no one’s asked him about it so he can’t be bothered. Of course if they did he’d just belch out basically the same “I haven’t read the book but here’s my book report” response he gives to everything.

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The times for replying seem overly long. Trump can do a lot of damage in that time.

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I like this idea. Move it up a week every time he posts something he isn’t supposed to.

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Thank you again for your efforts to get to the nub of the issues.

Donald Trump's instincts are sound. He has a very dicey case in law, so he has taken his case to the court of of public opinion. His jurors will be selected from that very public whose opinion he is simultaneously trying to either intimidate or cajole (depending on their view of him), and as you have so precisely pointed out those jurors will need to feel secure in order to vote their honest conclusions. If I were selected for the jury, I would absolutely be looking over my shoulder at the possibility of Trump's re-election in the certain knowledge that he would then demand the names of his jurors and punish those who voted to convict.

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As I'm lying here with a (mild?) case of Covid, Duhsantis' "openly criticizing the new vaccine and increasing vaccine hesitancy in the state and around the country" is a far cry from sanity and humanity. The reason my case and my husband's simultaneously, after 3 1/2 years and every vaccine available, is mild and not life-threatening is because of the vaccines he so glibly disparages!!! And his state "health" director 🤬 From what planet? Over 1.1 million deaths in the country since the onslaught. Such a cavalier attitude is truly sinful.

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