The Week Ahead

There are four stories on my political and legal radar this week. Amazingly, only one of them is directly about Donald Trump, so let’s take care of that one, and then look at three others: Gov. DeSantis and his new anti-vax crusade; the GOP-led House in turmoil as budget deadlines loom; and a UAW strike that may be drawing support from curiously divergent politics.

Gag me with an order!

On Friday we learned that Special Counsel Jack Smith has moved for a narrow so-called “gag order” to govern the federal January 6 case in Washington, D.C. against the ex-president. It has long been speculated, after an initial Protective Order was entered, whether Smith would seek further limitations upon Trump’s public missives, given how they directly disparage and threaten witnesses and court officials while tainting the jury pool.

Smith’s office argues that Trump’s statements could “present a serious and substantial danger of prejudicing” the case. Prosecutors are proposing a “narrow, well-defined restriction” that would prevent Trump from making statements “regarding the identity, testimony, or credibility or prospective witnesses” and “statements about any party, witness, attorney, court personnel, or potential jurors that are disparaging, inflammatory, or intimidating.”

Prosecutors cited multiple instances where Trump attacked individuals in order to inspire others to perpetrate threats and harassment against his targets. If you’ve been following my writings, you’ll recognize that this tactic by Trump is classic “stochastic terrorism” because it assumes there is a real probability that someone unstable will act out in response. Prosecutors noted specifically that Trump has called Judge Chutkan a “fraud dressed up as a judge” and called her a “radical Obama hack.” After such statements by the former president, a Texas woman was arrested for leaving racist death threats on Judge Chutkan’s office voicemail.

Trump didn’t take well to the motion, posting on Truth Social, “They Leak, Lie, & Sue, & they won’t allow me to SPEAK?” And on Friday night, before the radical group Concerned Women for America, he added: “These people are sick. They want to silence me because I will never let them silence you.”

It isn’t clear yet how Judge Chutkan will rule. Gagging Trump in any way carries risks that he will defy the order and dare her to sanction or jail him, threatening to turn the proceedings into a circus before a jury has even been sworn. Further, Trump wants the entire case to be about his “First Amendment rights” to say whatever he wanted to, even if it was false, about the election. Any evidence that the government is trying to silence him now could be leveraged by Trump in support of this narrative.

On the other hand, his stream of attacks is having deleterious effects upon the case, and hesitation by the court to enforce a gag order would seem like weakness or special treatment, and that might send the wrong signal to witnesses already fearful of their own safety.

A whole new fall of vax

As Covid cases rise this fall, the CDC has come out with further guidance and support for the safety and efficacy of a new round of vaccines to combat a new strain of Covid. Gov. Ron DeSantis and his administration in Florida, however, have taken a dangerous new step: openly criticizing the new vaccine and increasing vaccine hesitancy in the state and around the country.

The governor, who is running a far second place in the GOP presidential primary, has decided there is an opening when it comes to vaccines. Accordingly, he has decided to attack the government claiming that he will “not stand by and let the FDA and CDC use healthy Floridians as guinea pigs for new booster shots that have not been proven to be safe or effective.” His state surgeon general has discouraged young men from receiving Covid vaccines, erroneously citing risks of heart complications.

All that is hogwash, of course. The new shots, recommended for everyone six months and older, were determined to be safe and effective after a thorough and independent review.

DeSantis is hoping to regain his middle-finger bona fides, earned during the pandemic by insisting on reopening early, by coming after the vaccines themselves now even though he was a big proponent of them before. The strategy is cynical, scientifically unsound, and will cause unnecessary deaths and spread of the virus.

We’ll have to see how the other GOP candidates respond, if at all.

The House is now called to disorder

Speaker Kevin McCarthy is in such a tough spot that he has taken to using expletives with his own caucus, telling them during a closed door session on Friday, “If you want to file a motion to vacate, then file the fucking motion,” according to a recap by Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL).

His frustration is understandable, even if his predicament is of his own making. A simple rules bill for defense spending had to be withdrawn because his party could not agree on whether and how to attach unrelated amendments. (The extremists want to wage their culture war on abortion and trans rights during the budget battle via amendments to the appropriations bills, which is not a great look.)

McCarthy is nearly out of time. With just two working weeks left before the government runs out of money on October 1, it’s looking increasingly likely that the GOP will be unable to vote through any clean appropriations bill, let alone a dozen, or agree upon a continuing resolution to fund the government while the budget gets hammered out.

That will leave McCarthy with few good options. If he caves to demands of the right, the budget will remain dead in the water because the Senate will never agree to it, and the government will shut down. House Republicans likely will bear most of the blame for that, as they have many times before apparently without learning their lesson. But if, as before, McCarthy seeks the help of Democrats to get the budget bills through, including past the conservative-controlled Rules Committee, his own right flank might well “file the fucking motion” to vacate. Then he’ll need Democrats to hang on to power, which will be a huge blow to his prestige and his legacy, if he even survives the challenge to his leadership.

Strike while the economy is hot

The first parts of a UAW strike against the Big Three automakers has begun, with the union rolling out select strikes at local chapters. If negotiations fail, that strike could grow over time and involve up to 150,000 autoworkers. And that could jeopardize chances for a solid national economic recovery.

Democrats have already begun to show support for those on the picket lines. President Biden dispatched his acting Labor Secretary, Julie Su, to Detroit to help reach an agreement. And progressive Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) joined the striking workers in person.

The White House is viewed widely as the most pro-labor administration in several generations. “Auto companies have seen record profits…they have not been shared fairly with workers,” Biden has said. But if the automakers are hoping for support from the other side of the aisle, it may not be forthcoming. Republicans have largely remained mute on the issue, instead calling for a timely settlement of the strike while criticizing the White House for its push on electric vehicles.

And there’s a wild card: Trump, who falsely portrays himself as a champion of working class, has ruminated about showing up at the picket lines himself, even while attacking the UAW’s leader, Shawn Fain, alleging that autoworkers have been “sold down the river” by leadership.

If he really did show up, I wonder if he’d get booed?

Have a great Sunday, and I’ll see you back here tomorrow morning!

Jay