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A friend of mine said we can likely expect an attack on American soil as our enemies are now emboldened. I don’t know what to think... Hamas went under the radar to pull this off. Putin must be enjoying the chaos. Thank you Jay. Let’s all be good to one another. ✌️

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Well we're certainly not helped by the efforts of Tubby Tuberville's attempts to decimate our military.

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I am not currently in the US, but my husband is. I did not think about the US being attacked again, from reading this news, but I did think about the problems Israel has had by having Netanyahu in power again, and the direction he is taking things. Israel as an authoritarian state is not a good ally to have. But, we are allies with other authoritarian states, who are also not good allies. Let us look at Italy, and Sweden and the direction they have gone in with their leadership. All of this enmity against people for perceived differences of beliefs, skin color, nationality is a direction our own country is going in that makes me unhappy. It seems that authoritarians are growing more and more in numbers, and democracy is being further and further squeezed. That is a position or point of view that I found somewhat paranoid during the Cold War. Now I am worried about democracy and freedom disappearing because of the long term planning of authoritarians, and the enlightenment that it takes to want democracy. This is missing for so many people. We could not foresee what would happen in Ukraine on February 24 almost 2 years ago, and we cannot foresee what will happen with this declared war between Israel and Hamas, but it does not seem like it will be good for anyone. Look at what just happened with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh is wiped out of Armenians now. These are troubled times and here in Germany I was just hoping that the AfD (renamed Nazi party) would not have a good showing in the election today in Hesse.

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I completely agree with you. I’m mortified by the complacency of so many Americans right now. If we don’t act, our freedom is doomed.

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How can we tell how people lean? All we are exposed to is what we are reading through the news’s eyes of fear, manipulation, or hope. So much manipulation. Smoke and mirrors. I don’t like our current government setbacks like a missing Speaker of the house and Tuberville mucking up our national security. As well as my fear of leaving Ukraine to twist in the wind. It seems like Russia is behind everything in some way or other. What is Europe going through now I wonder?

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Susan I subscribe to several other people on Substack and a couple of them seem to also think that Russia is behind the attack by Hamas. Two reasons they gave were Putin's support for Hamas and Iran with Hamas visiting Russia as recently as this past spring and the other reason being this war between Israel and Hamas would draw attention away from the war that Russia is waging on Ukraine.

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That, if true, ties in to Russia’s usefulness and manipulation of Donald J Trump here in the West, and the high value that his many devotees represent. Bibi’s extreme right, maybe fascist stance, The negation of Ukraine, the strain on NATO, the Saudi’s holding oil over the heads of nations or Russian oil that partly supplies Europe. The Saudi’s becoming sports moguls in our country and using their great wealth to set the stage they want. The so called Republicans in congress who are against funding Ukraine, weirdly. Will someone please make all the pieces fit together for me? I need an explanation. But a true one.

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You can probably tell I don’t know much and that I’m worried.

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I can’t help but think of Pearl Harbor when “under the radar” is brought up.

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We already had that attack on American soil. 9/11 was exactly such an under-the-radar attack, and it was to a large extent motivated by US one-sided support of Israel. And this Hamas attack has already been described as Israel's 9/11.

You are not wrong, though. There may be another attack on US soil. I wouldn't expect it to happen closely timed with this attack, though.

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Oct 8, 2023·edited Oct 8, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

via my good friend, Nobel Laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk, Kyiv

7 hours ago

·

Today is my birthday. And I want to share an important lesson for me. Maybe it will help someone through these trials.

For me, the war started in February 2014. We at the Euromaidan SOS failed to mourn the killed Heavenly Hundred and reflect on three months of work 24/7 as the first mobile groups were sent to Crimea and then to Lugansk and Donetsk oblast. I've started working on testimonies of people who survived captivity. These were some really scary stories. We sent dozens of reports to all possible international organizations, but the situation has not changed. We have conducted successful international campaigns to release people, but the Russians have thrown new prisoners to play. I started to lose sense. You survey a person who has been raped and tortured and you know that at that very minute, other people are going through the same hell, and you have no legal mechanism to stop it.

When the doctor said I had depression, I didn't believe it, because I had three more work appointments after the appointment. I imagined depression as a complete loss of performance. "It depends on the stage," the doctor said. I didn't want to reach this stage. I began to look for what supports me and to regain the joy of life little by little. Books and friends reappeared, yoga and meditation added. And then came February 24th.

I feel pain and rage a lot now. My loved ones know I take everything to heart. I'm not ashamed of my emotions, I'm strong enough to allow myself to be vulnerable. But through it all, I am able to feel joy and happiness, and get back to those moments when I am struggling. Love is my point and pillar. All the ambitious things I've done were born out of love and not hate. I'm a far imperfect person, but I'm alive, and that's an undeniable advantage over icons. I am happy about this day, and although I meet him again on a business trip outside my home, I am warmed by the words of the dearest.

I still don't know what will happen tomorrow, I'm not given a long-term plan, but as long as I have the strength I will fight for the people and our victory, and I will not let this war take all my life and its joys.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10159540749892304&set=a.10151315048027304

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This is an account that is important for us in the US to bear witness to. Thank you for sharing it.

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When the specifics of a situation begin to overwhelm me, it always helps to enlarge the frame. This is a scary moment, but when I spread the time frame to include many past "scary moments" I can see many ways this might play out in the future. Meanwhile, there is a lot of pain and suffering to attend to, but it does me no good to imagine that this is all there is. Change will come. We who believe in freedom, fairness and peace will continue to work always for the greater good (thanks to Richard Reich for the thoughts on the "greater good".)

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Robert Reich. But yes, I agree 100%.

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oops. thanks for the correction. my bad!

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No real mystery about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: It began in 1948 with the expulsion of several million Palestinians from their ancestral lands; that was followed by the 1967 war, and Israeli annexation of the West Bank and Gaza, and the early encroachment by settlers into Palestinian territory; the 1993 Oslo Accords gave vague hope to a "two-state solution", which has now been hollowed out by successive Israeli governments by encouraging massive settler incursions into statutory Palestinian land, building of the "Great Wall", and establishment of countless roadway "checkpoints", completely hobbling normal travel between cities for Palestinians; finally, the "bantu-ization" of remaining Palestinian territory into series of isolated cantons, all under surveillance of the IDF, leading to further colonization of West Bank territory by far-right settlers.

Even today, many Israelis not of the extreme Right or Ultra-Orthodox persuasion speak of a de facto apartheid system existing in contemporary Israel, and legislation by successive Knessets led by Netanyahu-headed coalitions have further delimited not only Palestinian rights in the Occupied Territories, but those of Israeli-Arabs as well. The Palestinian Authority, led by the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas, is the preferred interlocutor by Israel for representing Palestinian affairs, but after decades of frustration and zero progress toward a "two-state" agreement - and regression of Palestinian rights in the Occupied Territories - it is no surprise that more radical groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Lion's Den, and several other local splinter groups have taken the initiative and prefer combat to negotiation.

"Normalization" of relations and true peace between Israel and Arab Palestine remains as elusive as ever, as the erstwhile Arab patrons of Palestinian interests, including the Saudis, Gulf emirates, Egypt, etc., are more concerned with deals countering Iranian influence in the ME, than actually brokering peace between the two adversaries. The Hamas attacks this weekend serve as a reminder that no deals amongst the Arab states and Israel can be achieved without firm guarantees to the Palestinians of restoration of the pre-1967 borders and the end of Israeli occupation and expropriation of Palestinian land as a starting point for negotiations. Really, that's the crux of the matter, but frequently brushed aside by the "facts on the ground" rubric concerning seemingly permanent Israeli settlements, and the "can't turn back the clock" mindset. Maintaining this perspective ensures a never-ending state of war between Israel and the Palestinian people, and violent outbursts as intifadas and rocketing of Israeli cities as we are now witnessing.

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The 1948 partition provided both a Jewish state and a Palestinian state. The Jewish part became Israel -- the Palestinians declined their statehood. There have been Jews in what is now Israel since Moses brought them in so it is also Jewish ancestral lands. In 1948 and 1967 and 1973 Israel was attacked by the surrounding Arab countries, most of which were desirous of "pushing the Jews into the sea". It's also very important to know that in 1948 Jews were expelled from most Arab countries, numbering about the same as Palestinian refugees, but were not in any way expected to remain refugees until their property was returned to them -- and most of them fled with literally only the clothes on their backs. The large majority of the now-refugee Palestinians never lived in what is now Israel as they are the children and grandchildren of the original refugees. As a side note, although an important one, there is no historical Jordan; modern Jordan was established as a home for Palestinians, however neither Jordan nor any other Arab country has allowed the Palestinians to settle in their country, instead choosing to use them as pawns in their power games and as a salvo to their people so that their citizens don't react to what is, in most cases, the alarming authoritarianism by the Aram governments. Yes, a two-state solution is possible but it must take into account the security needs of Israel, which the pre-1967 borders do not. It also requires a Palestinian leader who is willing to make peace -- and unfortunately the only Arab leader who was willing to do so was Sadat, who was murdered by his own people for doing so. Mohammed Abbas is not such a person.

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I’ll be honest too, I feel much calmer and less anxious reading a realistic and concerned piece from you. I was livid last week to read all the gloating about McCarthy being ousted because NO ONE seemed to get how screwed Ukraine was by this. And now, with Israel in trouble, they are toast. Russia will lay waste to that country, and at some point I would absolute to see a realistic wide ranging post from you about what that will mean to the entire world. I am sick. Just sick.

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If you listen to the way Kevin was talking just before he was ousted, (when Zelensky was here) he was on the verge of pulling his tepid support for Ukraine. They were going to get screwed anyway. You are correct. The US will probably drop Ukraine to stand up for Israel, and in my opinion, we give them too much support already.

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I am so glad you put so much emphasis on the so-called third-party movement — and more impressive is that you called it out for exactly what it is — a movement engineered by republicans in an effort to divide and conquer.

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

To all on the left — which includes progressives of all ages (especially frustrated and impatient voters), democrats, and independents. Jay points out the dangers of the math perfectly. There is no room for a protest vote — not even in deep blue California or New York.

Through all of the frustration, impatience and anger that somehow things are not happening fast enough; that Democratic majorities or the Democrat in the white house is "not getting it done," we have to remember that there remains an opposition with enough support to prevent a lot of progress. The Democratic advantage in the Senate is not high enough to kill the filibuster. Fools like Tuberville, Manchin, and Sinema have outsized power that they can wield. We don't need fewer Democrats in the Senate — we need a lot more. And this is our chance in 2024.

The change you seek is not in more republicans. It only comes with more Democrats. No good comes from a protest vote to West or Kennedy or Manchin should he decide to run. Those are mathematical votes for Trump — period, full stop.

And the numbers of Democrats needed in the House and Senate to really make the kinds of changes needed… that number is 290 in the House and 67 in the Senate. That is how you make the kind of changes this nation desperately needs. (In my humble opinion — a few amendments to the Constitution are needed to strengthen the underpinnings of the republic).

Right now — Democracy is on the line pure and simple. If we had 2 parties (or 3, 4 or 5) that all believed in the fundamentals of democracy, believed in science and facts it would be one thing to have a debate between honest brokers. The reality is we don't. Only one party believes in the Democracy and preserving, protecting and defending the Constitution. Republicans have told us and are telling us if put in power they will end the democracy — and we should believe them.

Staying home, and third party or write in votes — are a vote for Trump — pure and simple.

We need the discipline from the left — progressive, liberal, democrat, centrist, independent and those few republicans that have not joined the cult — you need to vote for the Democrat. It's the only choice if you want to preserve the Constitutional Republic and make the necessary changes we need.

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When I lived in L.A., where I was in the political majority, I commonly used my vote as a protest vote because, contrary to what Jay said, the Dems do not have my interests in mind, and I have never believed they do, or ever will.

That being said, I now live in a red state, and I feel it is my civic duty to vote in a practical, rather than an idealistic way. There have been several federal election cycles now where the general consensus has been that "this is the most important election in our nation's history," and I believe that has been true every time it's been said in recent history. And always even more true the next time.

What a state we are in when those of us most harmed by the status quo choose gladly to vote for the "least of the evils" because the worst choice is abhorrent beyond imagination.

Regardless of my several positions of marginalization that are barely even given lip service by either party, I will hold my nose and vote Dem across the ticket because we can't afford to take even the smallest risk of increasing the possibility that the Republicans will gain the White House, or the Senate, or retain control of the House.

I hope everyone else who doesn't enjoy the prospect of living in a dictatorship will do the same.

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I like to think of voting as a chess move, not as a marriage. You vote for the people who will better achieve the things you want for your fellow citizens and your loved ones. It’s fine to vote your conscience when it doesn’t affect the larger election, but when it might, it’s important to remember that no one gets everything they want, and that voting strategically matters a great deal.

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Well said! This is a perfect framing.

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Thanks, Jay, that's what I was getting here, but you said it more succinctly than I did.

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I can't say I've cast a protest vote as I've always voted for whom I hoped (fingers, arms and legs crossed) would eventually, maybe, get around to making a difference. Although I would have liked to. I'm livid with the Dems for only now taking our concerns seriously and absolutely out of my mind with anger that the magats ridiculous BS is causing me to defend the way things used to be. I pray our democratic politicians get it together.

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In 1968, my first election, I was one of many who abhorred Humphrey because "liberals" (a dirty word for the left then) were so involved in the Vietnam War. I wrote in Eugene McCarthy.

What we got was Nixon. I learned my lesson. It is important to realize the while one may feel strongly that Democrats may not have "my" interests at heart one has to look at which party has the country's interests more at heart. Thank you for recognizing the pragmatics.

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Ah, Eugene McCarthy! I hadn't thought about him in ages. What a blast from the past.

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I did the same. As a California Citizen, in 2016 Hillary winning my state was a given. It was clear that the election would be decided in other states. That gave me the freedom to vote for somebody else. The point is that I wanted her to win by a sliver rather than a landslide, to send the message that she doesn't have a "mandate" or is "entitled" to the presidency. Unfortunately, too many people didn't vote that way and she did win California by a landslide (she won just the city of Los Angeles by such a huge margin that it is solely responsible for her winning the popular vote). And just as unfortunately, many people in other states must have felt the same way despite not living in a "safe" state.

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“Nor should we trust for a moment that No Labels is really some independent third party rather than a long-game strategy by the GOP.”

A ruse from the GOP is exactly what it is. They’ve made that obvious. No need to suggest that it isn’t.

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Oct 8, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

Jay . I so look forward to your writing about the Israel and Palestine issues/conflict. I have a very basic understanding of what's going on but no real comprehension regarding the politics involved and how they change and yet always the issue feels like it's the same.

Thank you for your hard work. When something happens in the world, I always seek out your explanation first. Then Heather Cox Richardson. You help keep us grounded.

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Interesting times continues its pervasive march. Global eruptions impact us domenstically, in part due to the allegiances, both overt and hidden, cultivated by some of our erstwhile "leadership," often in direct antagonism to our national ideals.

Like it or or not, we are all interconnected, and must all determine our role, our position, our values, and align accordingly, whether those ideals are simply in favor of humanity.

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Oct 8, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

Re the speakership candidates: as one wag said, the lesser of two evils is still evil.

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Thanks for your insight & calming words today.

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Oct 8, 2023Liked by Jay Kuo

I appreciate your "proactive moderator" comments about Israel and Palestine, Jay. An engaged conversation from all sides doesn't = bothsiderism. It's so complex.

And, I also appreciate your sharing that you don't have an answer either, are just trying to provide an objective-as-possible for one person perspective on all this. There must be some small persistent steps that could be taken. I don't have much of a clue about what they could be, so it's lucky I am not one of the negotiators!

I grieve for the families who are impacted by this.

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We all see the memes, the jokes, the posts on political sites and we laugh. It’s not funny anymore and I’m losing my sense of humor. Our Republican Party is a shit show. It’s not going well and it’s probably not going to end well. We all wonder how millions of people still support it? I’ve always been an optimist and viewed things with rose colored glasses. They are now fogged over and my optimism has turned to confusion and doubt of any good in the foreseeable future. I actually thought about turning myself off to it. Not watch it happen. I love my country but I’m feeling like I did growing up in foster care. Where do I belong? What’s going to happen? Who’s going to make decisions? I seriously don’t know anymore about what will happen or become of things. All I want is to wake up and Donald Trump not being on my feed, or the government not shutting down and the Republican Party being normal again. How did we get here? The escalation began with the escalator ride. My opinion, that’s when millions drank the Kool-aid!

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I hear you. For me, humor about our policies isn’t just about making things funny. When we point out the absurd, we diminish its power. When we satirize, we defang. And when we express joy, it fills the room and chases out the shadow.

And when you feel that doubt and fog, embrace it, too. It is a reminder of your values. The important thing I remind myself is not to become paralyzed by it. Fear and anxiety are tools that we developed over millions of years to recognize danger and survive. We can harness that, but we must be cognizant of what it is.

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When aggrieved Palestinians fight back, U.S. rushes to aid Israelis.

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“Aggrieved Palestinians”? Hamas is a militant terrorist organization.

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Oct 8, 2023·edited Oct 8, 2023

True, but terrorist organizations tend to coalesce and grow by stoking and feeding on the anger of "aggrieved" groups and making any compromise and consensus harder to achieve. In the case of Palestinians, their treatment at the hands of the Israeli government has not been particularly stellar. And that's even if you overlook the fact that the nation itself was formed by taking over and occupying other peoples' land recently enough that people who were overtaken are still alive to remember it.

I completely understand why Jewish people would have such a strong urge for a land of their own after the atrocities of WWII. I really do. That doesn't mean the Palestinians don't have a reason to oppose them. This is even before the never-ending toxicity that religion brings to the table.

There's no excusing Hamas' violent attacks and quite frankly, I have little sympathy for what is done to the terrorists as a result of their actions. They have unquestionably made the situation worse and the consequences will be felt more by the innocent than by them. That doesn't mean automatically giving Israel a bye in all things related to their treatment of Palestinians, and their government's lurch towards hard-right extremism isn't helping either.

It's a very complex problem and complex problems are never, ever solved by violence and extremism. Unfortunately that seems to be the go-to response these days.

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Many in Israel believe that the establishment and permanence of a Jewish State is incompatible with Palestinian aspirations for an independent Palestine, as the "Greater Israel" construct includes all of the West Bank and Jerusalem. Since the "two-state solution" doesn't any longer have creditability with Israel, a shared "one-state" with non-Jews is by definition contrary to the ideal of a Jewish homeland, and here we are, a dangerous and unstable impasse.

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And isn't that exactly where ultra-nationalism leads us? Is there ANY country where all citizens are the same ethic/religious group? The ideal of a Christian America is a large motivator of right-wing terrorism in this country.

Nationalism based on ideals of democracy is one thing. Nationalism based on "land" is quite another. Amongst many other things, it treats immigration as "invasion of the land" without even considering the benefits new people can bring to a those currently in the land. Like every one of our ancestors unless one is pure indigenous. We won't even get into what the "homeland" of the latter has been reduced to.

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You are completely right. I'd just like to emphasize that we aren't automatically talking about the people of Israel, but the leadership (along with a, possibly small, section of the general population). This is of course true in most conflicts, but is particularly important to state here because the slightest criticism of Netanyahu's policies is often falsely cast as "antisemitism".

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Israeli settler violence against West Bank Palestinians is clearly militant terrorism.

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But Hamas does not, and never did represent all the Palestinians, especially those who live in the West Bank. Still, an oppressed people will eventually rise up and fight their oppressors, just like we did in rising up against England. Sadly, we tend to ignore the fact that both sides are human beings and deserve to live free from harm. We Americans don't always remember that.

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It is a scary world we live in at this time. It seems to be in an upheaval. And the "Greatest Nation" is so screwed up that it may be that no one will be able to depend on us for help.

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We the voters must change this!

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And how exactly are we supposed to do that when both parties are aligned on so many topics (including Israel and the Palestinians)?

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