The Week Ahead

I didn’t expect to be starting off my “Week Ahead” look with the distinct possibility that we have just seen the beginning of the end for Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Yet here we are. Well, Soviet.

Russia, Russia, Russia!

Russia nearly tipped into outright civil war following a brazen mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the one-time caterer to and close associate of Putin, who grew to be the ruthless head of the mercenary Wagner Group. With their own forces decidedly lacking in experience and flexibility, the Russian military made the dubious choice of inviting Wagner to join the war effort in Ukraine. Wagner proceeded to lead the bloody, yet in many ways strategically pointless, siege of Bakhmut over the past months. There, its numbers, largely comprised of former prisoners forced at gunpoint to fight for their jailers, were badly decimated, by some reports with casualties in the high tens of thousands. The experience proved harrowing to Wagner, and Prigozhin angrily accused the Russian Ministry of Defense of starving his group of supplies and ammunition.

Things boiled over when Prigozhin went public with a full denunciation of the war and its false justifications. Claiming his forces had been attacked by Russian missiles, which itself may have been a false flag, Prigozhin ordered them north from Ukraine in a fearsome convoy stretching dozens of kilometers. Facing little resistance, they first seized the Southern Military District headquarters of Russia’s armed forces at the city of Rostov-on-Don then sped up the highway toward Moscow itself. Putin, without mentioning Prigozhin by name, appeared on television to call for suppression of the traitors, vowing to crush the forces of the very monster he had created. By all accounts, it seems Putin had been caught wholly off-guard by the attack.

Some home blood was spilled when Prigozhin’s forces shot down Russian aircraft that sought to intercept the convey. As the Wagner Group forces approached the outskirts of Moscow, Putin reportedly fled to St. Petersburg by private plane, underscoring his weakness. Mayhem was only avoided when the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, who is a pal of Prigozhin, brokered a deal for an off-ramp and a cessation of hostilities: Prigozhin would get to go to Belarus, unharmed, and there would be no prosecution of any of his forces.

I’ll likely do a bigger piece, or perhaps even more than one piece, later this week as we learn more about what has happened inside Russia. It’s fair to say already, however, that while immediate chaos may have been avoided, the ramifications of this challenge to Putin’s total authority, and the disastrous way it played out for him, point toward a likely end to his power. Seen broadly, a warlord who was once a staunch ally gave Putin the middle finger in a very no-take-backsies way, then nearly decapitated Russian leadership in a blitz, and now is apparently being allowed to walk with no consequences—though he should probably stay away from windows and should pour his own tea.

At the same time, Russian leaders and forces in Ukraine are probably wondering how the war possibly progresses from here if the Wagner Group, which was the point of their spear these many months, is functionally no more. The Ukrainians are getting a big boost because this proves that the war is not just being won, albeit more slowly than hoped, on the battlefield but more importantly politically. The powerbrokering class of siloviki (what Republicans might call the “Deep State” here) are more than disillusioned and now smell weakness. On state-run media, guests are being openly critical of the situation and how it was handled. And as of the time of this writing, it should be noted, Putin has not been heard from since his nationally televised address condemning the mutiny.

So many questions remain. The announced deal has not yet been honored, as far as anyone knows. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has emerged publicly. It isn’t clear what other concessions Prigozhin may have achieved, including rumors of a shake-up within the Russian Ministry of Defense. The sudden pull-out of the Wagner forces could open up opportunities for Ukraine in its counter-offensive. The Russian people, having now heard a counter-narrative on the war while suddenly realizing that Putin’s power in fact hangs so precariously, may turn against him and the war. And Russia’s friends around the world, including China and India, may not want to continue to bet on a lame horse.

It will be quite hard for Putin to come back from this.

Jack attack

On this side of the Atlantic, another would-be despot is also fending off attacks, in this case of the legal sort. In recent days, we learned that Special Counsel Jack Smith has hauled fake electors before the grand jury in Washington, D.C. and offered them immunity in exchange for testimony; that Infowars acolyte Owen Shroyer—who was there at the insurrection alongside Alex Jones and attended the War Room meetings the night before at the Willard hotel—has pled guilty and is now cooperating with authorities; and that Smith has delivered non-classified discovery to Trump’s legal team including a list of more than 80 witnesses.

Criminal investigations are often quiet for a long period of time before it’s “everything, everywhere, all at once.” It also looks like Smith is aiming to start the two week trial over Trump’s pilfering of national defense secrets on December 11. And yes, do that the math and it puts a possible jury verdict right at Christmas.

A Supremely bad week

This week is also expected to deliver some big case decisions as the Supreme Court completes its most recent term. A long shadow hangs over the Court after numerous exposes on the corruption, non-reporting and conflicts of interest that now have hit every member of the conservative majority in some way, most notably against Justices Thomas and Alito. It is under this cloud that the Court is set to issue key decisions about race-based admissions, the White House’s power to cancel student debt, the rights of LGBTQ+ people to enjoy the full protections of non-discrimination laws, and a far-fetched “state legislature” theory for deciding elections.

I’m not expecting good decisions on the first three of these cases, and I’m hoping for a big punt on the fourth, which the Court could hold has become moot by the decision of the newly reconstituted North Carolina Supreme Court to rehear a case on redistricting. If any of these go better than expected, however, it may be precisely because Chief Justice John Roberts and at least one of the new justices don’t want to further rock the boat, which is already taking on a lot of water thanks to the greed, hubris and corruption of its most conservative members.

Have a great Sunday, and I’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Jay