The Week Ahead

With the courts closed, Labor Day Weekend isn’t chock full of legal news. There are some political stories I’m following, but they also aren’t terribly pressing just yet. Time to take stock, take some deep breaths, exhale all the political nonsense, and enjoy time with family and friends, I say!

Here’s what’s on the near horizon. The theme of the week is apparently “impeachment.”

Budget impasse, impeachment hearings

Congress comes back into session this week, and with it another mini-crisis in the making. It’s not one we haven’t seen or experienced before: The government needs to be funded, but the GOP is threatening to shut it down while the two sides argue about appropriations and a continuing resolution to keep it running.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy is facing an internal revolt (again). From the right, he is under pressure to add contingencies to any bill to fund the government. These include threats by extremists like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) to vote against the bill unless impeachment hearings begin against Joe Biden, though on what grounds isn’t really clear. (Somewhat ironically, McCarthy is warning members of his caucus that a government shutdown would actually prevent things like an impeachment hearing from going forward because, well, the government would be shut down.)

Other threatened amendments from the right include a halt on further aid to Ukraine or further federal funding for Covid-19 vaccines. But this is all just empty talk.

Here’s what to remember: The terms of the budget deal were already hammered out and agreed to by the parties earlier in the year when the GOP tied the debt ceiling limit to it. The continued brinksmanship by the GOP has already resulted in enough uncertainty that one major agency downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating, making interest on our national debt more expensive for everyone.

It appears the GOP leadership in the Senate is more realistic about what needs to happen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said this about the budget drama, per reporting by The Hill:

“The Speaker and the president reached an agreement which I supported in connection with raising the debt ceiling to set spending levels for next year,” he said in Kentucky on Wednesday, shortly before appearing to freeze while taking questions from reporters.

“The House then turned around and passed spending levels that were below that level,” he said. “Without stating an opinion about that, that’s not going to be replicated in the Senate.”

Speaker McCarthy has to walk a very fine line in the coming weeks, holding Republicans together enough to move the ball forward, or being forced to seek help once again from Democrats to do so. If he chooses the latter course, his right flank may seek his ouster.

Wisconsin impeachment shenanigans

Joe Biden isn’t the only one Republicans may seek to impeach in the coming month. The GOP is still reeling from a rout in the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race, where the liberal candidate, Justice Janet Protasiewicz, thumped the conservative by double digits.

Her election threatens something the GOP has held onto tightly for over a decade: the politically gerrymandered maps that resulted in a 65-34 GOP supermajority in the Assembly and a 22-11 one in the state Senate. This lopsided legislative representation is in an evenly divided “purple” state with a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator.

Justice Protasiewicz, without saying how she would vote on a case (there was none pending at the time she was elected) has called the maps “unfair” in the past, and the GOP is using that to demand that she recuse herself from the upcoming challenge to the maps, on grounds of bias. But they took it one step further and have raised the specter of impeachment and removal by the Assembly and the Senate, which they could in theory accomplish given their numbers.

Otherwise put, the GOP is threatening to use its illegally gotten supermajority to prevent a justice, elected by an overwhelming majority of the people, from dismantling the very illegal thing that keeps the GOP in power. It is one of the most cynical threats to democracy around, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone who understands the corruption and insanity of the Wisconsin GOP.

Before you freak out, I believe this may also be an empty threat, especially once Republicans actually sit and think about it.

First, under the Wisconsin Constitution, in Article VII, the Assembly can only impeach a sitting officeholder on grounds of “corrupt conduct in office, or for crimes and misdemeanors.” This wouldn’t apply to Protasiewicz, so the move could be unconstitutional right out the gate.

Second, even if she were impeached, it appears Gov. Tony Evers would have the right to fill the vacancy while the Senate considers whether to convict. That would not put the GOP on any better footing with respect to the redistricting cases.

Third, it isn’t even clear, in the 3-3 split of the Court should she be impeached, that all three remaining Republicans would be on board with the maps. One of the conservative justices has voted with the liberals in the past over election-related matters, most famously in rejecting the Trump Campaign’s suit in the 2020 election.

The Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader, Devin LeMahieu, also appeared to throw cold water on the idea of an impeachment just as the new state Supreme Court term begins. “To impeach someone, they would need to do something very serious,” LeMahieu told WISN-TV. “We are not looking to start the impeachment process as a regular occurring event in Wisconsin.”

A Texas-style impeachment

On Tuesday, something remarkable is set to begin in Texas: the impeachment trial of the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton. The proceedings against one of the standard bearers of the far-right, who helped lead an ill-fated, multi-red-state challenge to the 2020 election, have fractured the GOP. Traditionalists such as George W. Bush and Karl Rove have indicated support for Paxton’s trial, while MAGA leaders including Donald Trump and Steve Bannon have come out in support of Paxton.

It’s a test of wills and force, with enormous symbolism and direct “brand” consequences for the GOP going forward.

Among the many offenses alleged, Paxton is credibly accused of corruption and of attempts to use state funds to settle a lawsuit brought by senior aides turned whistle-blowers. He is also under federal indictment for securities fraud, and that case has just cleared a major hurdle to move forward.

Paxton’s woes are a bit like Trump’s: He is facing accountability and loss of his political future due to his abuses of his office, but his policies are adored and loved by the far-right, so they are fighting to keep him right where he is. “People know this is a political witch hunt,” cried Jonathan Stickland, president of Defend Texas Liberty, on conservative talk radio. “They’re doing it to Trump, they’re trying to do it to Paxton.”

Who “they” are remains a bit fuzzy. Perhaps he is referring to the GOP establishment generally? Because that is who is leading the charge against Paxton. Indeed, this is a fight having almost nothing to do with the Democrats, and the allegations of corruption and abuse of office are quite serious and multitudinous. As the New York Times noted,

By a vote of 121 to 23 in late May, the House sent 20 articles of impeachment to the Senate for trial. As a result of the vote, Mr. Paxton has been suspended from office pending the trial. The articles of impeachment include allegations that Mr. Paxton used his office to benefit an Austin donor and real estate developer, Nate Paul, and that Mr. Paul helped conceal Mr. Paxton’s extramarital affair and paid for renovations on one of the attorney general’s houses.

Whether Paxton is convicted will come down to 19 GOP votes in the Senate. The far-right is currently running millions of dollars in ads, on billboards, mailers, text messages and television, to try and pressure some on the right to vote to acquit Paxton. And earlier this summer, Donald Trump came out swinging in favor of Paxton, whom he considers his close ally and supporter, by blasting Gov. Abbott for sitting this one out:

So it may be popcorn time in the Lone Star State as we watch the far-right and the just plain right go to battle over a criminally indicted abuser of his office. Consider it a preview of what’s to come with Trump.

A reminder: Today is the second and final day of my Labor Day Weekend offer of 20 percent off an annual subscription to The Status Kuo. If you’ve been meaning to support my work and believe in paying for good, ad-free content, today’s a great day to do so and receive a discount while you’re at it! Just select the button below to upgrade from free to paid, with 20% off!

Have a great Labor Day!

Jay