The Week Ahead

The Bipartisan Budget Agreement is now drafted and heading to the House where it faces a somewhat uncertain vote. I say uncertain because, while I believe firmly that it will pass, I cannot say what the make-up of the yes votes will be.

That is because far-right members of the House GOP Caucus are howling and may desert the bill in large numbers. Here are some examples of the choice words they used after being briefed on the agreement by Speaker McCarthy:

“Insanity” — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC)

“Surrender” — Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO)

“You can’t make this crap up” — Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX)

From where I sit, if the Republicans are this unhappy about the deal, it can’t have been so bad for the Democrats.

The question Speaker McCarthy now faces isn’t whether he will lose Republican votes, but how many. More than four, and he will need to rely upon Democrats to rescue the bill. That means a bipartisan Act—which is a win for Biden, another feather to add to his already impressive cap of infrastructure, CHIPS and PACT legislation.

Progressives will get a chance to vote against the bill in protest because of the added work requirements and spending caps on social programs, but it currently appears there are enough Democratic moderates, particularly within the center-left New Dems Caucus and centrist Problem Solvers Caucus, to push through its passage. Failure really is not an option; if the vote counters believed it was going to fail, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries would likely lean on his fellow progressives to vote it through.

In the Senate, both Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have given the bill their support. This means at least 60 votes are likely, enough to overcome the filibuster. Certain senators such as Mike Lee (R-UT) may seek to throw political wrenches into the works by causing a few days’ delay on passage, which could spook markets if it looked like we would go past the X-date of June 5. But the Treasury probably could prioritize debt to keep us from defaulting a few days longer. And President Biden could still invoke the 14th Amendment, though he appears reluctant to do so, or even order an lifting of the debt ceiling under national emergency powers.

In short, I am fairly confident we will see passage of the bill and averting of a crisis. The question in my mind is, “What about Kevin McCarthy?”

He is already in a precarious position. If he loses more than 100 members of his caucus, they may call for his head, just as they did before with John Boehner when they didn’t like the deal he got for them on the budget. Paul Ryan also lasted only a short time, with the far-right always agitating for more extreme positions. McCarthy may be the next casualty. It certainly would fit a familiar pattern.

If McCarthy only loses a few dozen votes, he might be safe, at least for a while. That would probably be better for the country, because the next in line likely would be farther to the right than McCarthy.

A showdown in Texas

There is high drama in Texas as the Republican Party goes after one of its own, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has long been under indictment and investigation. The Texas House voted by a lopsided margin of 121-23 to impeach him on 20 articles for bribery, abuse of power and obstruction. Now he faces a trial in the Texas Senate. While awaiting that trial, he is suspended from his official duties, which is good news for democracy generally.

One interesting thing about the Paxton fight is that national political leaders have begun to weigh in. Trump, for example, considers Paxton an ally ever since Paxton filed a Supreme Court to overturn the results of the 2020 election in four states. Trump has blasted Texas Republicans for going after Paxton, calling them “RINOs” for supporting impeachment.

By wading in to the fight, Trump has put his own credibility on the line a bit, but he knows he can spin this into a win-win. If Paxton is not convicted, Trump will claim it’s because he weighed in. If he is convicted, Trump can point to the “establishment” GOP as corrupt and in need of being voted out, which aligns with his own messaging in the presidential primary.

Jack Smith may strike soon

With the long Memorial Day weekend behind him, at any time now Special Counsel Jack Smith could recall his grand jury to consider indictments against Trump. These would be in connection with Trump’s illegal retention of top secret and other highly classified material and his obstruction of the Department’s efforts to retrieve them.

The grand jury hasn’t met since early May, and no new witnesses, subpoenas or motions have emerged since that time. This suggests to me that Smith has been using the weeks to draft a prosecution brief, complete with legal arguments and evidence, for Attorney Garland to review and consider.

If I’m right, then a decision to indict may be very near, and I would not be surprised if it came in the next week or two. I believe the chances of an indictment are strong, particularly because we now know that, in the course of deciding a motion to compel Trump’s lawyer Evan Corcoran to appear, Judge Beryl Howell found that that there was evidence supporting the crimes of obstruction and of illegal, willful retention of documents Trump was unauthorized to possess. If a federal judge has so ruled, it’s hard to see how Smith or Garland would just ignore that and decide not to indict. Of course it’s possible he skates, based on things no one else knows, but still unlikely.

It’s Memorial Day, and I have to note that no president in history has ever so dishonored our troops, including our fallen heroes, as Trump did. He called them “losers” and “suckers,” and in his second year as president, he bailed out a visit to Aisne-Marne American Cemetery outside of Paris because of the rain.

So it would be particularly fitting if, shortly after Memorial Day, Jack Smith’s grand jury indicted him on obstruction and espionage. Wouldn’t that be a great start to the summer?

Jay

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Given Trump’s existing and future state and federal indictments, I’m offering folks a chance to subscribe as annual supporters at a discounted rate. For the next week only, you can get 20 percent off the usual annual rate under my Indictment Offer! Lol. It’s an incentive for any who have been meaning to upgrade their accounts and help an independent writer out (and keep him working here instead of a law firm). For each new paid subscriber this week, the gods of karma will up Trump’s chances of indictment just a little more, I swear!