Red, Wine, and. Blue, an organization of mainly suburban women in Ohio, has been very active in the women’s health movement in Ohio and continues to be active in the area of gerrymandering and book banning. They are currently collecting signatures for a constitutional amendment to ban gerrymandering. People are speaking out.
This also shows how hard Dem volunteers are willing to work. Thousands of us volunteered for the NY3 special, which I believe drove the Dem performance to the upper end of what’s possible. Republicans have no such grassroots machine and it will matter in November.
I'm in Toledo, Ohio, which is rather blue despite heavy Republican gerrymandering (check out Marcy Kaptur's district map - just insane!) One thing I've noted in the back of my mind recently that also gives me hope are the lack of Republican ads for the Senate. I've seen a lot of ads for Sherrod Brown (love him, has always gotten my vote and will again) but none for Bernie Moreno. I'm sure this because the RNC is spending all their money on TFFG legal fees and trying to get him re-elected instead of spending on down ballot races.
Trump’s takeover of the RNC means many GOP down ballot candidates are left fending for themselves. Sure many of them are rich but that doesn’t replace political infrastructure needed to reach out to voters.
Not only are they not getting ad money, there are no district offices being set up which would work on getting out the vote for the entire GOP ticket.
I'm quite happy that Lara trump is heading up the RNC, it only helps Democrats. And all the Republican donations are going to trump's legal fees, not the campaign. I really don't know what they are smoking over there unless they figure they can just try another insurrection.
They are counting on voter suppression and insurrection from state legislatures, and probably Trump goons. I expect this will all fail, but it worries me just that it is happening.
If you want more hope check out Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles here on Substack. He provides this kind of analysis daily plus recommendations where to put your time and money for maximum effect. We were a big part of the special elections Jay references.
Thanks so much for this! I keep sharing your posts on FB to give my doom and gloom Dem friends hope. I found you from a friends FB post, so hopefully I’ll get others to sub to you as well.
In a way I feel bad for him. His vaunted system that he felt he had honed to a fine point that was going to predict everything has come to nothing in the new ecosystem we have in politics.
Thanks for a realistic and optimistic take on state of the election, Jay.
In addition to Democratic enthusiasm to deny Trump a second term and with it his chance to put more extremists on the supreme court, there's also a cadre of republican/right leaning voters who went for Nikki Haley in the primaries but who are turned off by Trump in general and even more so by his 34 felony convictions. Sarah Longwell at the Bulwark has done a couple of focus groups since Trump's conviction, and those voters aren't swinging back.
Personally, I think pollsters and republicans in general are underestimating the drag of having Trump at the top of the ticket, combined with extremist decisions by a politicized supreme court. The recent stories about the Alitos haven't helped.
Red, Wine, and. Blue, an organization of mainly suburban women in Ohio, has been very active in the women’s health movement in Ohio and continues to be active in the area of gerrymandering and book banning. They are currently collecting signatures for a constitutional amendment to ban gerrymandering. People are speaking out.
I’m following that effort closely. The results in Michigan and Wisconsin speak for themselves!
Ok......I'm nitpicking here. But your commas change the meaning. The orgnization is Red Wine & Blue.
This also shows how hard Dem volunteers are willing to work. Thousands of us volunteered for the NY3 special, which I believe drove the Dem performance to the upper end of what’s possible. Republicans have no such grassroots machine and it will matter in November.
Readers here and on my social media donated over $30K to Tom Suozzi!
I'm in Toledo, Ohio, which is rather blue despite heavy Republican gerrymandering (check out Marcy Kaptur's district map - just insane!) One thing I've noted in the back of my mind recently that also gives me hope are the lack of Republican ads for the Senate. I've seen a lot of ads for Sherrod Brown (love him, has always gotten my vote and will again) but none for Bernie Moreno. I'm sure this because the RNC is spending all their money on TFFG legal fees and trying to get him re-elected instead of spending on down ballot races.
Good! Let’s hope the RNC continues to poor money into Trump’s legal defense and forgets that winning the Senate is important too!
Trump’s takeover of the RNC means many GOP down ballot candidates are left fending for themselves. Sure many of them are rich but that doesn’t replace political infrastructure needed to reach out to voters.
Not only are they not getting ad money, there are no district offices being set up which would work on getting out the vote for the entire GOP ticket.
I'm quite happy that Lara trump is heading up the RNC, it only helps Democrats. And all the Republican donations are going to trump's legal fees, not the campaign. I really don't know what they are smoking over there unless they figure they can just try another insurrection.
They are counting on voter suppression and insurrection from state legislatures, and probably Trump goons. I expect this will all fail, but it worries me just that it is happening.
Trump believes that if he is elected he makes himself dictator and Congress no longer matters.
Gives me hope!
If you want more hope check out Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles here on Substack. He provides this kind of analysis daily plus recommendations where to put your time and money for maximum effect. We were a big part of the special elections Jay references.
I fully agree. Simon's Hopium Chronicles are a worthwhile read.
Thanks so much for this! I keep sharing your posts on FB to give my doom and gloom Dem friends hope. I found you from a friends FB post, so hopefully I’ll get others to sub to you as well.
I’m sharing Jay’s posts, too.
Yet again, Jay, I see you there... holding that light at the end of the long dark tunnel. Thanks for the ray of hope.
Thank you for this excellent analysis and insight. Let’s continue to stay motivated and engaged!
Somewhere, Nate Cohn is typing furiously about how his little collection of 500 Siena landliners are not impressed with these results.
In a way I feel bad for him. His vaunted system that he felt he had honed to a fine point that was going to predict everything has come to nothing in the new ecosystem we have in politics.
You would think they would have learned by now!
I'm always so happy to read The Ststus Kuo in the morning! It makes my day.
Thanks Jay! Couple this with the (small) shift towards Biden in the polls, and my hope for the November election grows. - GOTV!!
This election is very winnable. The White House, the House, and even possibly the Senate.
Woo hoo!! 👍 That is what I am starting to think, too! Thanks for confirming my feelings about the November election outcome!!
Love this breakdown. Thank you!
Our message, on the fingers of one hand:
1. Vote.
2. Vote as early as you can.
3. Vote Democrats for freedom and democracy.
4. Vote Democrats all the way down your ballot.
5. Government will get more done for us if the fight is between Good-Better-Best than if it's between Convicted, Corrupted, and Crazy.
As for point #5, I'd say the fight is between G-B-B over C-C-C.
Thank you. That is definitely going on Our Wins for the Week list. :-D
Thanks for a realistic and optimistic take on state of the election, Jay.
In addition to Democratic enthusiasm to deny Trump a second term and with it his chance to put more extremists on the supreme court, there's also a cadre of republican/right leaning voters who went for Nikki Haley in the primaries but who are turned off by Trump in general and even more so by his 34 felony convictions. Sarah Longwell at the Bulwark has done a couple of focus groups since Trump's conviction, and those voters aren't swinging back.
Personally, I think pollsters and republicans in general are underestimating the drag of having Trump at the top of the ticket, combined with extremist decisions by a politicized supreme court. The recent stories about the Alitos haven't helped.
This is why Republicans cheat. Their policies are incredibly unpopular. They can't win without cheating.
Excellent Analysis!