92 Comments

Thank you for spelling things out so clearly. The Aileen Cannon news made my heart sink, but I continue to have great faith in Jack Smith. I have very little faith in those Americans who continue to condone the behavior of a conman. 🙄

Expand full comment

She’s a problem for sure. But remember this is Act Two of a four act play. More indictments with different juries, judges and jurisdictions to come!

Expand full comment

certainly we will all be watching to see whether Cannon has learned ANYTHING from being whupped down by the 11th Circuit in what is probably the appellant lawyer's dream decision.

Expand full comment

Appreciate your optimism about justice from the Florida courts. I hope your optimism is justified in the end.

Expand full comment

There is no way to know now how things will go. Cannon surely complicated things. The jury pool is not great. But we did just get at least 12 jurors to issue an indictment so that’s a good sign!

Expand full comment

Just heard on the news this morning, so I don't know if this is all completely true, say tRump is found guilty, put in prison, but is still able to run for President. And if he wins (or another sympathetic GQP supporter wins, he could have all charges and prison sentence pardoned before he walks into the White House....so important to not sit back on our heels, thinking he lost if found guilty, a blue wave, a bigly one, is needed to make sure none of this becomes a possibility. IMHO

Expand full comment

Our legal system isn’t well suited to handle political corruption at this level. The voters have to be smart enough not to vote for such a man. I believe they will pass that test.

Expand full comment

so he could win and pardon himself while in jail? This is one of the many reasons people convicted of crimes should not be able to run. But also if he is found guilty how awful is it that the GOP would still leave him on their ballot? I mean to most upstanding citizens it will look bad- not that I think they care because the simple act of defending him shows how much they don't care about national security. It's just dumbfounding to me that it could actually happen. Though there is a part of me that says let it happen- if convicted I think he loses enough of the saner people to lose bigly. I mean he didn't have the popular vote in either election. Hopefully enough people have woken up enough to see how bad it would be for our country.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Jun 10, 2023
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Let's hope at least one of them stick!

Expand full comment

I wouldn't be surprised if all that becomes moot. Of course it is impossible to predict, but he already outlived his life expectancy given his unhealthy lifestyle. By Jan 20, 2025, he will be almost 79 years old. So it is entirely possible that he may have suffered a natural death by then.

Needless to say, that's not something we can rely on (or should hope for), but it is a very real possibility.

Expand full comment

Exactly, Kevin. I'm going to pretend I'm GOD for a minute now (because HE is omnipotent) : lyin' tRump who is currently the domestic terrorist leader for Republican Party will try suicide before the announcement of the verdict for the following MAGA reasons : (1) the trial would immediately terminate so he could not get convicted; and (2) so his legacy will be immortalized by those asslicking, fervent supporters of this "genius".

Expand full comment

People of his personality type don’t usually commit suicide.

Expand full comment

Here's a wild thought. Suppose it stays with Judge Cannon... when she sees the preponderance of evidence, in pre-trial materials and during a trial, perhaps she will become disillusioned and even resentful at having been used by the scumbag. And the gavel comes down hard.

Wishful thinking, no doubt. Perhaps Jay's optimism is rubbing off on me.

Expand full comment

I seriously doubt disillusionment is possible. Most of Trump’s followers don’t believe he is a great person or an honest person. What appeals to them about him is that he gives them permission to be their worst selves.

Trump tells them it’s OK to be racist, OK to be sexist, OK to be anti-democratic and support fascism.

So looking at all the evidence and seeing how it points out that he is a criminal will not cause disillusionment because she already knows that he’s a criminal. She, like his followers, see that as a positive thing.

Expand full comment

She may very well change her mind when she realizes that being the judge in his case paints a big target on her back - for the very people she admired.

Expand full comment

This, Kevin, is where I believe she will recuse herself. Not out of decency, or legal jurisprudence, but out of FEAR! Doing the right thing, and following the law will get her killed, and she has to know that.

Expand full comment

I don't think she can recuse herself on that basis. Recusal would require that she has some form of personal interest in the case, not a general situation that would apply to any reasonable person.

Fear of reprisals is something that would apply to any judge, and a risk that would be considered inherent to being a judge. The remedy for this type of fear would be to provide her with around-the-clock protection. Possibly even to seal the court schedule so nobody would know in advance when the trial is in session.

Of course she could try to recuse herself for other reasons to weasel out of that, even cynically use her own prior bias as evidence that she's biased. I'm not sure if that would work, though, because it's a bias in favor of the defendant.

But this situation could have another effect. She can, and probably will, order Trump to not talk about the case at all. If he so much as peeps to his mob, he may end up getting locked up in pre-trial detention.

Expand full comment

Pre-trial detention, under these charges, should be a given. RE: Jack Texiera. (sp?) It would also be a blessing of sorts, in that he would have no access to his social media platform.

Expand full comment

You mean the mob she supports might actually turn on her? Oh, wouldn’t that be a tragic thing.

Expand full comment

EXACTLY!

Expand full comment

Most of those followers already believe it’s ok to be racist, sexist, and all the rest. It’s even worse, they don’t see themselves as racist, sexist etc. They (most) actually believe they are the side of good and that our side is evil. I recently changed my mind on this subject. I used to believe what you said above Christopher. After reading more responses to this indictment I now see it so much differently. It is much scarier than I thought. They believe Donald J Trump is a good man. A man with a big heart. A man who is looking out for them. Someone who will save democracy. Let that sink in.

Expand full comment

Some do, no doubt. But I’m convinced the vast majority understand exactly what they’re doing. They may be trying to convince themselves at times that they are actually on the side of the Angels, but catch them in an honest, unguarded moment, and they will let slip (if not quite readily admit) that they are aware of their true motivations in much of their vehement declarations that they are “doing it for the children“ and other similar claims are lies. The “I am really the victimized hero“ stories that they recognize they have to tell themselves to get through the day.

Expand full comment

One point I am worried/confused about: if he is found guilty, will his security clearances be revoked? If so, how can a sitting president (if that insanity happens) do their job without security clearances? I know in my low level jobs where I hold clearances this is certainly the case.

And thank you for the writing this in a s simple terms as possible so all can understand!

Expand full comment

I'm not sure, but I think presidents don't have "security clearances" in the sense other folks go through hoops to get them. And I think their right to see secret docs expires with the end of their term, except to the extent of the exceptions to the Presidential Records Act. I would guess an ex-president could GET a security clearance in the normal way, but I've never heard that trump did.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/25/trump-classified-legal/

Expand full comment

Susan - I just heard a discussion of this earlier this afternoon. IF I recall it correctly, you're right that access to Classified documents do expire at the end of the term but that can be waived under specific circumstances and only for a specified short period of time. I don't recall who would issues such a waiver. Hopefully, we'll hear a discussion of this again which will clarify anything I don't have right.

Expand full comment

I think the waiver is for brief access to aid writing presidential memoirs. For everyone but trump that would perhaps be a routine thing to grant. With trump, well--does his ghost-writer have to get a clearance???

Expand full comment

I believe you're correct about when a waiver might be granted. However, I also was reminded by someone on MSNBC that President Biden, 2 weeks after his inauguration, directed that tfg no longer be provided briefings from NSA.

Expand full comment

There's so much "noise." I'd also heard that if he is elected again, he can immediately put a stop to the trial, fire all involved, and walk way scot-free. Then comes the revenge on any and all who even slightly reek of Democratism. BUT-- if the verdict comes in before the election and he's found guilty, he will be unable to run for president.

Someone with further knowledge on this matter please correct me if I'm wrong. Jay? ;)

Expand full comment

No, he can still run if convicted. That’s why the solution ultimately is a political one, not just a legal one.

Expand full comment

What besides demise would prevent him from being qualified to run for president? I mean, I'm pretty sure our allies are scared shitless that he'll be elected again, their state secrets at his fingertips. I'm guessing they're not going to want that sort of risk to their state secrets. He might wake up dead one morning if they feel threatened enough. But I didn't just say that.

Expand full comment

nor did I "like" it 😉 I would say that if he actually gets elected the issue is moot. It will be the end of anything resembling a democracy. He'll just fire any Justices who say him nay.

Expand full comment

Being convicted of espionage and still being able to be president is insane. I know he can, and will, it's just insane. If he is found guilty for this I just find it unfathomable that they would ever give him security clearance again. He has treated our national security as a joke. Can a judge as part of his sentence bar him?

Expand full comment

Even if convicted under the Espionage Act?

Expand full comment

I just looked: the two statutes that forbid holding office are about a) treason and b) insurrection. Those track the 14th Amendment. Problem is that the 14th mentions specific office holders and President isn't one of them.

I'm sure that Alito would say that this means the Founding Fathers didn't intend to bar the president even for such bad acts. It is probably more accurate to say the Founding Amenders, at least, couldn't even conceive that a President would do such acts.

Treason, btw, requires a state of war. Insurrection is what's available, and trump carefully didn't actually STORM the capital. Is ignoring an insurrections because it stokes your ego to see it "insurrectioning?"

Expand full comment

Love it! Here’s hoping the Angry Yam is shaking in his boots now that Justice might just come along and bite him in the ass after all!

Expand full comment

Angry Yam! 😂😂😂

Expand full comment

I’ve always called him that. He’s the right colour and the right shape, and he’s always, always loudly angry about something!

Expand full comment

We occasionally called him the Hate Carrot or Tinpot Cheeto

Expand full comment

He has the right to a speedy trial. Let’s hope so.

Expand full comment

He has the right but you know darn well he doesn't want one. Jack Smith does, however, and will be able to ensure that Judge Cannon doesn't once again seek to help TFG by extending preliminaries.

Expand full comment

One thing I feel doesn't get said enough - Let's pretend Trump DID declassify those docs. That means ANYONE can look at them. So, do we really want a president who will declassify nuclear capabilities of our allies, or war plans of our government? If he DID declassify them (which of course, he didn't) that should make him ineligible for the presidency based on sheer incompetence. Along with the 1000s of other incompetent things he's done....

Expand full comment

His supporters don't care. They have supported him thus far, they will do as he'd said all those years ago: "I can shoot someone dead in the middle of 5th Avenue and not lose any votes" (paraphrased). And he was right.

Expand full comment

In view of the evidence so far, any sensible defendant would plead guilty in hopes of getting a better deal and be done with it. Trump is far from sensible, though, and will insist on treating the American public to yet another three-ring circus with him in the center ring, basking in what he will perceive as 'glory.' (SO sick of narcissists; would much rather see them banned than books and drag queens). I imagine he thinks he can run out the clock and get elected before a verdict comes through. One question, though, Jay: If convicted, will he have Secret Service coverage in prison? One comfort: If he gets convicted, there are no spray tans in prison (and what will happen with his 'do?).

Expand full comment

It's completely unprecedented that someone with secret service protection would be convicted with a custodial sentence. The main thing is that it's really not possible for the secret service to protect someone in prison. So, much as we'd love to see him in gen pop in an orange jumpsuit, it seems more likely that he'd get home confinement or something similar as a sentence.

Expand full comment

I don't know how the courts could justify home detention, considering the other person arrested for espionage recently has been locked up before trial because they don't know what else he might possess or what he's done with it. Trump is still a danger to national security and it doesn't seem like home detention would be sufficient to keep him from spilling secrets.

Expand full comment

I can't see home confinement being an option. He will almost certainly not be in the general population, which basically leaves either solitary confinement, or clearing out a whole wing just for him. Odds are that this will be extremely comfortable for him, since there is a good chance that most of the prison staff is sympathetic to MAGA. Probably not quite as nice as El Chapo lived in the Mexican prison, but nowhere near the ordinary inmate. He may well get privileges like generous visitation and communication policies, catered food, actual medical care, or similar things.

Expand full comment

he won't plea because the longer he can fundraise off of this the better. It's insane to me how many people just hand over their money to this self proclaimed millionaire when I'm betting many of them can hardly pay their bills

Expand full comment

Thank you for keeping us informed in such a clear and concise way.

Expand full comment

There is a lot we don't (yet?) know about these charges and what was/wasn't said or done. But I'm here to tell you, as an average American with what I believe is average intelligence, if I were on the jury and I had been presented with *what we know* I can tell you that I would vote to find him guilty on all counts. Let me also add that I've never been optimistic about tRump ever seeing the inside of a courtroom, let alone a jail cell. Even if he's found guilty, he will appeal until the cows come home, and still will never serve a day of his miserable life behind bars, as deserving as he might be after a lifetime of criming. I'm still cautious in being too optimistic about him being found guilty simply because he has so many ride-or-die supporters willing to take a bullet for him, proverbially, of course, (or literally?) and willing to acquit him just because they see him for the god he thinks he is. We can only hope at this point that the members of the jury are carefully vetted, and are open-minded and reasonable. That's the best we can hope for if we want to see a guilty verdict. Even if he doesn't end up behind bars, he will be ruined in every way. The stress of the proceedings might just kill him.

Well. We can hope.

Expand full comment

Accountability is about the process, not just the end!

Expand full comment

We can only hope that this process doesn't strengthen him. He's already begging for his 'defense fund.' We can hope that it weakens his brand and his supporters realize that his baggage is just too much to bear. Bottom line: We all need to get out and vote BLUE to keep ANY Republican from getting into the White House. Too many of them are promising to pardon him (if he's found guilty) and that's just giving him the chance to wreak more havoc on us, in any way he can. He's out for revenge, even now.

Expand full comment

Trump’s is a world class deny-er. He denies anything he doesn’t like and affirms a make believe world that he does like. In between there is debilitating anger and then his “I will not lose” kicks in. That gives him strength to face another day and look for someone to blame and demonize.

Expand full comment

One interesting question--would trump, if convicted or if it looks like he will be, withdraw from the race and throw his support behind another candidate who would then pardon him? Which is more important to him: his ego in being president or his desire to keep out of prison?

Expand full comment

Trump won’t do that. I can’t see it.

Expand full comment

Agreed. Not with his malignant narcissism and borderline personality disorder. And his fluid sense of self and no boundaries of right and wrong.

Expand full comment

Exactly.

Expand full comment

Not Pence or Christy.

But then there is Georgia. It like a safety switch. If found guilty will the GA governor/parole board let him go?

But in any case the stink will remain.

Expand full comment

And here we sit, in a morning after room reeking of stale beer, sweet, the admixture of vomit and pretzels. Even before the party started we anticipated the end point, but it still assaults the senses and dazes the mind.

Expand full comment

I believe one of those charges includes exclusion from holding federal office.

Wouldn't that preclude him from the election upon conviction?

Expand full comment

Unlikely. That could apply to other federal officers, but the limits of the president are set by the constitution

Expand full comment

Aren't there additional eligibility rules set by the states on who can even run in a primary?

I remember California tried that approach to enforce disclosing tax returns (in that case, it was struck down, but I'm not sure if that was a general ban on all additional requirements for candidates, or just on this specific situation).

Expand full comment

Why, in the world, would they give this case to that judge?? I mean that is just asking for major trouble and delays. Who decided this? To me, it overshadows all the great news.

Expand full comment

It might be by lottery. Dumb bad luck.

Expand full comment

Thank you for a very clear and helpful explanation of the issues as we know them today.

Expand full comment