From my daily Facebook status update on the war in Ukraine:
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Day 31
As the war continues to go poorly for Russia, it has shifted its publicly stated goals from “demilitarization of the country” to “control of just the Eastern region of the country.” The first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff claimed on Friday, “In general, the main tasks of the ‘first stage’ of the operation have been completed.” He continued, "The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal—the liberation of Donbas."
The liberation of Donbas, however, was never the “main goal” of the war before, so it appears Russia deliberately has moved the “goal” posts to something more achievable. The current Russian strategy to focus on Donbas may be a way to gain a potential bargaining chip in future peace negotiations.
But in their effort to control the eastern region of the country, Russian forces may not be faring that well either. According to a senior Pentagon official, the Russians no longer have full control of Kherson, the first major Ukrainian city that Russia took during the invasion. That assessment was disputed, however, by Russia, as well as by Ukraine which believes there is fighting in certain neighborhood of the city but that on a whole it remains under Russian control—at least so far. But Ukrainian forces are now fighting fiercely in Kherson and pushing back against Russian gains there, making the strategically important port city “contested territory.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine is close to securing a major victory in the northwest suburbs of Kyiv. The British Ministry of Defense said there was now a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces would surround the towns of Bucha and Irpin, which have been partially occupied by Russian forces since the start of the war.
Ukrainian troops also have begun retaking towns east of Kyiv, and Russian forces are now falling back on overextended supply lines, said officials in the U.K. “It is likely that successful counterattacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganize and resume their own offensive towards Kyiv,” said one official. The mayor of a suburb east of Kyiv independently said Ukrainian troops had recaptured a nearby village. Civilians were now leaving the area, after authorities warned them to avoid the path of the counter-attack.
Three more stories out yesterday added to the perception that Russia’s invasion is continuing to fail badly. First, Ukraine claimed it killed yet another top Russian military leader, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezantsev, commander of Russia's 49th Combined Arms Army. Rezantsev’s death is believed to represent the seventh Russian general Ukraine killed in battle in this war.
Second, Russia’s precision-guided missiles apparently are now calculated as having a very high failure rate of 60 percent in Ukraine, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence reports. That poor showing may in part explain why even its missile attacks—well over 1,000 launched to date—have failed to change the calculus on the ground.
Third, Russian state media is beginning to show public cracks, with online commentators even erupting into open argument about how long the war will now take, with some warning that the invasion and capture has stalled and that Russia is looking at years if not decades of deadly conflict.
A grim figure emerged confirming that 300 people were killed during an attack on Mariupol’s Drama Theater over a week ago. Hundreds of people, mostly women and children, had been using the basement of the theater as a bomb shelter. It was unclear how officials arrived at the estimate of deaths, and Russian forces have hindered efforts to find survivors in the rubble since the building was bombed on March 16.
Western experts are in agreement that the war in Ukraine is approaching a new, potentially more dangerous phase. A month of fighting has left Russian forces stalled despite their numerical superiority. Putin and his military planners have been left with some stark decisions, including how and where to replace and resupply ground forces, whether to directly attack the supply of Western arms to Ukraine, and whether to escalate or widen the war. These are inevitable consequences of military failure by Russia and success by Ukrainian forces, but the moment is soon upon Russia to determine its next moves.
Sanctions are putting additional pressure on what those next moves by Russia will be. The Institute of International Finance predicts a 15% contraction of the Russian economy in 2022, followed by a 3% contraction in 2023. “Altogether, our projections mean that current developments are set to wipe out the economic gains of roughly fifteen years," the IIF said. Further, annual inflation has accelerated to 14.5% and should surpass 20% soon. While panic-buying accounts for some of this, weakness of the ruble may keep price pressures elevated. Further, without Russian central bank access to its hard currency reserves, the ruble continues to remain weak after initially plunging to record lows.
Russia is trying to evade sanctions through a demand that "unfriendly" nations must use rubles to buy its oil and gas. German chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed skepticism of Russia’s demand. "There are fixed contracts everywhere, with the currency in which the deliveries are to be paid being part of these contracts... in most cases it says euros or dollars," Scholz said. That position was echoed by Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. "This is basically a breach of contract, this is important to understand," he said. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed, and said the move was an attempt to circumvent EU sanctions against Russia. "We will not allow our sanctions to be circumvented. The time when energy could be used to blackmail us is over," she said.
Asian importers of Russian gas were scrambling to make sense of Russia’s demand, too. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were on the list of countries deemed “unfriendly” yet they all import natural gas from projects in eastern Russia. Japan, the biggest importer in Asia, had questions about the ruble requirement. "Currently, we're looking into the situation with relevant ministries as we don't quite understand what (Russia's) intention is and how they would do this," said the Japanese Finance Minister.
EU leaders, in a full court press, have now also asked Beijing directly to stop Putin. China has so far refused to fully condemn Russia’s invasion and generally has supported Moscow in its grievances with NATO expansion. Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi noted, however, that “China is [the] most important country, they can be crucial in the peace process, they have lots of leverage, a lot of leverage, and so we are all waiting.” Latvia’s Prime Minister Arturs Karins agreed. “China has a choice, it’s rather a simple choice: put your lot in with Russia—that is, waging war against Ukraine, bombing women, children, hospitals—or find a way to work with Europe, with the U.S. and with western democracies.” Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin added that the EU had to ensure “China is on the right side of history with this war.”
President Zelenskyy called out the cozy nature Hungary’s prime minister, Victor Orban, has had with Russia. Because of his strongman persona and crackdowns on LGBTQ+ rights in Hungary, Orban has been a darling of the far-right in America, especially Fox News’s Tucker Carlson. Zelenskyy addressed Orban directly in a video: “When I was on your city's wharf, I saw the memorial, on Danube, devoted to the mass killings. I was there with my family. Listen, Viktor, do you know what is happening in Mariupol?
“Go down to the Danube, take a look at those shoes. They’ll help you realize that mass murder is happening again in the world. There are shoes and people like those in Mariupol today.”
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/25/world/ukraine-russia-war
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukraine-urges-halt-russias-assault-biden-heads-poland-2022-03-25/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainians-close-to-reclaiming-irpin-as-russia-suffers-heavy-losses-mnv8gr2v2
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-claims-its-killed-one-of-russias-top-generals-in-ukraine-2022-3
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/
https://trib.al/fT57A9n?scrolltoken=1rrxGQAjv1rS2oRRok6VHSts-4tH-DkaBsQPuRaXeYPFG3wedOWRzaPXeyd6n8DeMYO0CfntbLL_I5BHXh9BuPIqOXKRwCxNPTFUdxzjwV-nwxLv4nbCySTDtywx0IrjFcDdPu8pA_7ERCtTJOCglgLcWotsiLKJYTyAHueiNB84yEOfw82YCiunQZIny3FlWb5Qc_xVQVfd9jtX_fpyVaTKirNAPxPoM1UALw.eyJraWQiOiIzI
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/world/europe/mariupol-attack-drama-theater.html
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-europe-nato-971463587011b3bf19dde7abb35889ad
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/four-weeks-war-scar-russias-economy-2022-03-24/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-demand-rouble-gas-payments-would-be-breach-contract-eu-leaders-say-2022-03-24/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asian-gas-buyers-puzzle-over-putins-demand-payment-roubles-2022-03-24/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/russia-ukraine-eu-leaders-send-a-message-to-china-to-stop-putin.html
Another outstanding compilation and commentary on what is happening in Ukraine.
With Putin apparently, at least on the surface, "moving the goal posts" back considerably from his original "de-Nazification" and "taking back Ukraine" justifications, perhaps in response to the domestic demonstrations and outspoken protests of some members of the business, professional, and intelligentsia classes, I want to express amassively hopeful thought:
In the post-USSR period, though the oligarchs certainly have thrived, the middle class has also grown, as have rising expectations - until the recent Putin shenanigans, Ukraine invasion, and crackdown on dissent. It's notable that middle-class rising expectations, along with working class strife (especially the massive loss of their sons in wars) has always been a recipe for revolution - especially in Russia. We could be witnessing such a historical process right now.
Some middle-class & professionals are fleeing Mother Russia along with a few Oligarchs.