119 Comments

My biggest concern is not who (in theory) is likely to get the most votes. In spite of the polls showing the two neck-and-neck, from everything else I've seen, f heard, read, argued about, etc., I don't believe Trump has the backing to win. My concern - and what I believe should be our primary focus between now and November - is how, and to what degree, is voter suppression going to be used to prevent non-MAGAs from voting AND having their votes counted and respected by the many Republican state entities (legislatures, judges, etc.) that have the power and opportunity to block the proceedings. The MAGAs have had four years to strategize since the last time they attempted to disregard the people's choice. The guilty verdict may well have an impact on the vote, but what do we do to ensure that both the execution and the outcome of the election are not disrupted in a way that perverts the integrity of the election?

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The important states—PA, WI, MI, AZ, GA—all have election supportive governors and secretaries of states thankfully! It will be tough for MAGA to throw out those votes. 2022 was key to helping us in 2024!

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I share this concern. There is already so much happening in state legislatures to either block votes or get ready to undermine an election. They are laying plans in all the states. I doubt that trump can win fairly, but then again, when has he ever let that stop him?

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Voter suppression, etc, is all they've got. Trump can only "win" through cheating.

What we've got is strength in numbers. They cannot grow their base like we can.

It's all about turnout.

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Yes, and - all the turnout in the world won't help if they manage to subverting the whole process. We need both: massive turnout, and preemptive diligence as to the strategies they employ to disrupt a legitimate result.

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100% agreed. Can you imagine if Chief Justice Roberts whimsically decides to swear in Trump instead of Biden on Jan 20th?

(of course, any complaints can be taken up with SCOTUS.)

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We need to use mail in ballots wherever possible to help mitigate this critical issue

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Yes - and everyone should take photos of their ballot before it leaves your hands--before you put it in a drop box, mail box, or even at the polling station.

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Great idea!

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apparently the RNC (or some group of GOP) has changed course on how mail in ballots encourage fraud; they want their older voters to be able to stay in during storms, I guess. Also, the company that produced 2000 Mules has repudiated its accuracy and taken the film and book off its platform and will no longer distribute them.

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Saw a report yesterday or the day before that Trump himself has reversed course on mail ballots.

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Yes! And, if your state has it, VOTE early. This is key. For many states, early voting starts September 20!

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I think they know they can't win a fair election. Their only chance to "win" is to cheat in every possible way. Hopefully, before the election, we will see many of the "fake electors" and others associated with that scheme go to prison which might make anyone considering involvement in another scheme to think twice before they FAFO.

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We as democrats are great at worrying ourselves into a tizzy. For my own sanity I have to believe democrats and democracy-loving non-democrats throughout the government and law enforcement are well aware of the planned shenanigans and have answers ready to go. True, we must each be diligent and watchful, but to think the GQP will simply get away with a continuation of what they tried in 2020 with no one prepared to thwart it basically says we think our leaders are incompetent.

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I once was a person of similar blind faith — that our democracy will prevail. But while out and about, I’ve come to understand the very vast number of uninformed (disinterested? lazy? just generally clueless?) people there are outside of our more-informed bubble. Add to that the legions of those misinformed by the very concerted efforts of the voluble sycophantic mouthpieces — in no particular order, the likes of Steve Bannon, Sean Hannity and other Fox personalities, Tom Scott, Peter Navarro, DeSantis, Jim Jordan, Mike Johnson, MTG, Elise Stefanik, Michael Whatley and too many others who are escaping my fingertips at the moment — who will continue to voice the disingenuous demonization of Biden, the Biden administration, and the DOJ to the preëmption of all reasonable contrary argument, and I’m afraid I’ve lost my innocent blind faith.

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If I were Steve Bannon, Sean Hannity and other Fox personalities, Tim Scott, Peter Navarro, Ron DeSantis, Jim Jordan, Mike Johnson, MTG, Elise Stefanik, Michael Whatley and too many others, I'd be quaking in my boots once the electorate starts to pay attention this fall!

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I thought they were prepared for J6 and they weren't. I saw it coming a mile a way but what thinking if I see it then the people in charge will see it too. That they weren't prepared doesn't help me trust in law enforcement this time around.

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Trump was the Commander in Chief on Jan. 6th. Many of us were very worried that a coup would be successful because he was the one with the power to stop it. Thankfully he had patriots still in his administration. Biden is the current Commander in Chief. I have ten if not a hundred times more faith in his ability.

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I just really hope they get out of that mind set "that what shouldn't be won't be". How many times since 2015 has Trump done something where everyone was saying oh he won't do that and then he did?

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Fort Knox will be jealous of the Capitol Bldg come Jan 6, 2025.

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As Jay notes, the critical swing states don’t have election deniers for Secretary of State, what worries me is voter suppression at the county level and voter ID and voter address laws that have been passed by republican legislators. I believe Arizona and maybe other republican run states with indigenous populations have passed laws requiring a physical, numerical residential address for voter registration. Vast reaches of the Navajo Nation and other reservations in the Southwest do not have street names and addresses, let alone residences with running water or electricity. (The major reason most cities have an address system is not postal delivery, but for assigning water meters and for fire department emergency response.)

I can see a scenario where local officials question many cast ballots, states cannot certify votes, and 2000 Deja vu all over again.

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I think that the MAGAs have been strategizing even longer than 4 years, because there has been voter suppression since the first time that Black Men and then Women in general got the vote. So, these methods are just being updated. Still, intimidation and legislation and hijinks on the day of are what lead to this. Trying to get rid of women as voters is on the agenda I see. That is a big worry, but my bigger worry is that Alito and Thomas sit on the Supreme Court and perhaps 4 others to hand the election to Trump on some Trumped up reason when he appeals the election results to them. They are already testing the waters with getting Americans to accept outrageous decisions. They stopped the vote count in Florida for Gore, and later on when the votes were all tallied, they threw out ballots with "hanging chads and butterfly ballots." Who were those voters with hanging chads. I do not believe they were in Republican strongholds, but the opposite. So, seeing them do that, and the courts backing them, we needed to be controlling the courts. To all of the people I know he voted for Nader instead of Gore, and told me I was wrong, I will point out that their votes helped to get Bush into the White House, and he appointed people to the judiciary, which are helping a Republican minority take over the USA.

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This is my main concern too.

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This is my concern also. Too many red states will be working hard to circumvent a “fair & legal election”.

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I appreciate the analysis, but I'm not getting too excited about polls so soon after the verdict (as you said). I look forward to the debates - if the treason weasel has a the courage to show up, and the Democratic Convention. This year the democrats go second, an important advantage since the candidate normally gets a post convention bounce. Then we need to keep up the pressure between the convention and November 5th. Remember no one is coming to "save" us, the hard work will continue to be ours.

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Jun 3Liked by Jay Kuo

I was on my semi-annual visit to the pedi salon and happened to check my phone because my NYT page was pinging with Maggie Haberman updates. "Verdict coming soon!!" And then they came, one after another until there were 34. I called out to no one in particular "Hey, Trump convicted on all 34 counts!" I looked around for other clients who might at least give me a thumbs up, but saw none. So I said it again, louder. A few people looked up, faces blank. The food show on TV droned on.

I showed my screen to Tracy, who was busy trying to make my geezerly toes presentable for summer shoes, and she rolled her eyes and gave me a dismissive wave. Tracy was born in Vietnam and is incredibly smart, hard-working and Americanized. I don't think she likes Trump, but I think she regards all politics with skepticism and sees this trial as political, thus meaningless.

But to me it was one of the top 5 headlines of my life, a 'where were you when you learned JFK was dead?" sort of thing, and a shared moment, but no one was remotely interested. Then again, the mani-pedi crowd is likely not as fervid about such things as I am. But they are perhaps representative of many Americans who are just numb and tuned out. And that is a sad state of affairs.

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I know. It’s amazing how many Americans don’t seem to realize that we are on the brink.

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I was so grateful I was in my car on my daily run to the post office. I literally ran through the door, tears streaming down my face and called out to my two wonderful workers, "He's guilty!! He's guilty of all 34 counts!!" They were overjoyed with me and we shared a hug together.

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A friend and I were seated outside in a diner on First Avenue in Manhattan when I checked my NYT app around 6:00 PM. “Guilty on All Counts”!!!!!! We started yelling, “Guilty!” Big smiles on our faces.

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Trump is a criminal. A serial Liar. He answers to Putin . He’s all in with the 2025

Those solution. That would in fact assure a fascist United States of America.

Anyone who is willing to obey Putin , should vote for Trump . Anyone who wishes our president to support Democracy and its freedoms should vote for Biden . Those Maga Republicans who support Trump/ Putin , and have attacked our democracy and our Justice System with their red tie March on the Courthouse. They must be relieved of their Office as representatives of the People of this Country.

Maga is not the majority in this country, however they may spin it and however corrupt they may have become.

Those members of the Supreme Court that have refused to follow obvious ethics should also be removed. Supporting an attempted coup, is not an acceptable thing for an appointed Justice , it is a dishonorable, corrupt and fascist thing to do .

Justices Alito and Thomas have pushed the pendulum of Constitutional Law way too far to the right in overt support of Maga cult.

It’s wrong , it’s corrupt and their attempt to minimize their corrupt actions is unconscionable behavior. They must recuse from any conversation or decision regarding Trump and his attempt to overturn our government as elected by the people .

If they are even allowed to remain on the Supreme Court .

They have already violated their oath .

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They need to be arrested. And thrown in jail for insurrection imo

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You are on a roll, Patricia💙

👍👍

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I think like most of us who care about Democracy , I’m just done with Maga BS . They think they are the Majority . It’s a game they play .

They are a crazy broken minority

arranged and encouraged by Donald, his hatred , his violence and his need to submit to Putin

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They KNOW they're the minority now. It is why they will try every underhanded trick and tell every kind of lie, and they WILL try to steal this election. And you know they will declare victory on election night far before any possible accurate results are available.

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Why is it still being referred to as hush money when in fact it was election interference? If there had not been so much interference, we might have had Hilary Clinton as President and may have faired better during the pandemic. Why isn't that being discussed?

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I wrote an email to the Guardian to point that out. No reaction and no change in wording. So frustrating.

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Jun 3·edited Jun 3Liked by Jay Kuo

Thank you for taking the trouble to parse the polls and report on them.

Trump's sentencing immediately prior to the Convention, especially after having been assessed and counseled in NY to determine his attitude, should have some interesting results. The population seems to be divided between people who "already knew" and were convinced that Trump was already a criminal, those who steadfastly refuse to believe he is a criminal, those who don't care whether he is a criminal or not, and those who are so utterly uninformed that it still hasn't occurred to them that anyone considers him to be a criminal. Short of requiring people to pass a weekly knowledge test in order to be allowed to leave home and buy groceries, I don't see a remedy. The lines of the breakdown follow "Do you read? If so, what? If not, do you watch or listen to any form of news? If so, which? If not... :-<

I'd like to register an aside related to your NYT comment. There was an opinion piece in the NYT the title of which baldly stated that Justice Merchan had blocked many of Trump's avenues of appeal. Without reading the piece, hundreds of commenters were howling for Merchan's blood for "denying Trump his Constitutional rights." If you actually READ the article however, what the authors said was that Merchan had been SO very fair and correct in his conduct of the trial that Trump's legal team have very few options in appealing their case. The contrast was so jarring that I immediately suspected that a senior editor or manager chose the title after the piece had been submitted. Indeed, the title has been changed from the original in electronic media since the article first came out, but it seems as though the NYT is messing around with their own staff's output just to put a finger on the scales.

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Jun 3Liked by Jay Kuo

I've noticed these titles that don't accurately reflect the articles too and wondered who was in charge of choosing the erroneous click bait title. It's interesting what you noted about yhis one. These do a lot of damage with the vast population that don't have the attention spans to read articles. Super frustrating.

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"click bait" - that's the operative phrase. It's all about the clicks - never mind accurate presentation of the news. 😡

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.That was exactly my concern. I appreciate your echoing it.

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Snap polls are just that, an "instant" reaction by a group of people, not all of whom will eventually vote in November. The trick is for not only the MSM and social media, but the Dems as well, to KEEP IT GOING, don't let the 34 felony convictions become yesterday's story - old news, let's move on - e.g., to the Hunter Biden trial(s).

Sure, don't look to the courts, yadda-yadda, to save us from tRump, but when we actually GET a win from the justice system, USE IT, ffs!

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Exactly.

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Agree, Lance

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Jun 3Liked by Jay Kuo

These people who "don't care" that they'd be voting for a criminal who has no remorse for breaking the law, are telling me two things: If they're politicians, they're cowards who just want to stay as far up the food chain as possible, and if they're not politicians or lobbyist they've drunk the cool aid and are too blind and stupid to know what the results of 45 being elected would mean to our constitution and country.

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AND the convicted felons surrounding him too - he’s just a mob boss with henchmen, most of whom have already been convicted of doing his dirty work! All the other convictions are really material in the story and need to be connected for some people to see the full picture.

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Exactly, by dangling pardons and/or offering to pay for legal services for doing his bidding, he is corruptly influencing people to break laws for him. The fact that (at least) three people have entered a plea of guilty in GA should have been enough to move that trial ahead, the appeal regarding (since re-elected) Willis is obstruction IMO. Another related case with a co conspirator guilty plea is in Mesa County Colorado - Tina Peters trial scheduled for late July (after numerous musical attorney chair game delays) dots connect directly to pillow guy and I believe he is deserved of Federal charges for receiving stolen property over State lines (among other things) so many in Republican/GOP crime circle of jerks.

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I am convinced that the most damaging for Trump is that suburban women will be reminded that what start this criminal conspiracy was to hide that when Melania had a baby Donald had sex with Stormy Daniels.

That’s the kind of person he is. Yukky.

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I don't believe for a second that Melania was in his thoughts at all: he said something to the effect of "how long do you think I'd stay on the market?" meaning if she left him, other women would be lined up to take her place.

It was all about his election chances, same as his despicable neglect of the Covid pandemic--he was afraid the pandemic would hurt his chances of reelection.

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Exactly. The sex with Stormy when Melania had a baby was hidden from women voters for the election.

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I worry about the Electoral College. Hopefully, Biden will win by so large a margin that the Electoral College vote is rendered moot.

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Yeah, I'm anxious about that, as well. There are a large number of republican-controlled state legislature that will attempt to negate a dem win in Their state (mine included - I'm in Ohio).

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I just wish we had something that would limit candidates from advertising or running for office more than six weeks out from an election. People get so tired of all the rhetoric they start tuning out and ignore the whole process. Our mute button is going to wear out by November.

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Agree! This is how they do it in so many other countries- UK and France bring two that come to mind. Maybe 2 months of campaigning for general election. And some countries also limit how much money can be spent by the campaign. A shorter and “less bought” campaign would be so much better! People would follow it and pay attention! And be more informed voters.

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Thank you for the great analysis. It vis adding to my continued hope.

Let’s take this home for Biden and blue candidates and see how we can each influence those undecided that we may know or come into contact with. 💪🏼🗳️💙

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“In good news for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, most of the 2,500 Americans surveyed in the Reuters/Ipsos poll—around 54 percent—agreed the prosecution was about upholding the law and was not politically motivated.”

Only 54%? What the heck?!!!!!!!

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Exactly. But we must remember what people read and listen to ... all they hear is that it WAS politically motivated. As fortunate as we are to have Jay and Joyce and Heather (and countless others) they have their people that they read as well who are spinning the story to match what they want. They are NOT reading facts.

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And that is it in a nutshell. Well said Linnae.

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If President Biden doesn't hammer home the criminal and civil records of Trump in the upcoming debates, he doesn't deserve to be President. Trump has provided a target-rich environment and Biden needs to take the gloves off and exploit it.

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If the only reason to elect Biden was because he deserves the win, I wouldn't vote for him. I will vote for him because Trump is too horrible to contemplate, but I won't be happy about doing it, and I don't feel he deserves it. We have to elect him regardless because of the unthinkable alternative.

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THIS!!!

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Sorry, but I can’t ‘predict’ what I will have for breakfast tomorrow, or if I might sleep in. Asking voters to commit to something months away (and actually follow thru) is silly. Too many genuine variables yet to happen/not happen.

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