Nikki Fried is the new Dem chair there and it looks like she's repaired the damage to the ground game in Florida. She also notes that, as of now, there is virtually no ground game by the Trumpstans in Florida.
Texas is winnable, too. Allred is ahead by a point in at least one poll. This suggests to me that Kamala is doing better than the MSM will lead us to believe.
I want to believe in the highest of goals. I want Florida AND Texas. I've lived in Texas. It's full of ranchers, oil men, and diverse blue cities. It's doable. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Thanks for this—as a long suffering Floridian I know we need momentum and to rebuild from the ground up! There are some other things happening here too, like the mobilization of traditionally not so heavily involved Asian Americans, due to the racist legislature passing laws restricting property ownership here, plus Haitians getting more involved for obvious reasons. The national party and Harris campaign have also sent thousands here to help with the ground game!
Listen to the Scott Dworkin interview with Nikki Fried mentioned elsewhere in the the comments (here: https://substack.com/@scottdworkin/p-149060157). Florida is a beautiful, if threatened place, A lot of people who live there can't move or won't leave their friends and the local communities that have sustained them. A lot of other people care enough about the place and the people that they won't move. That kind of dedication can be inspirational.
After decades, I did move, but I still support, send money and help with public info. I was in a rural turning populated area and it wasn't real safe territory though I led protests. I am still entrenched, just from safer ground where I can do more good for the people of that once & future great state.
Winnable in large part because of Rep Anna Eskamani’s (D-Orlando) non-profit People Power For Florida.Rep Anna and her team are boots-on-the-ground. Lots of opportunities and events at Florida colleges.Please share!📣
Anna, whom I've followed for years, and now people like Congressman Frost. Hopefully in November, including Debbie Mucarsal-Powell and others. Out with Rick Scott and Matt Gaetz!
But remember, Texas Sec of State now has the authority to OVERTURN any election in Harris County and only Harris County (home to Houston and the 2nd largest population of Black Americans) if they believe there were 'issues' at just 2% of the county's polling locations. Past 'issues' considered worthy of tossing out 2 million votes include temporarily running out of the special paper required by our voting machines.
Don't doubt for one second that Abbott et al will try pulling this bs if Texas goes blue. Houston always votes Blue as does every major city in Texas.
And I firmly believe Fried would have won against deathsentence had she gotten the nomination, but maybe it is ultimately better where she has ended up!
As someone who lived in Texas for the last 24 years, don't hold your breath for it to turn blue. The state is held hostage by incredibly corrupt Republicans like Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and Ken Paxton who won't let it happen. I'm pretty sure Beto beat Cruz in 2018 but, due to dirty tricks, wasn't allowed to win.
Just today, a jury refused to hold liable all but one of the nutjobs who almost ran a Biden/Harris campaign bus off the road in 2022. The San Marcos police department never got into trouble over their refusal to help the bus when they asked for it either.
It's very discouraging because Dems have been working hard for years now with few wins in the red areas. But I hope I'm wrong. I'll dance in the streets if Allred wins.
Unfortunately I think you’re correct. But the margins seem to be narrowing. As the population grows, its tilting toward blue.
Most young, college educated who are moving to your state are independents or Dems.
If Texas goes blue, the republicans will never win another election and they damn well know it so they’re suppressing voting and cheating as much as possible.
I think, demographically, it’s only a matter of time.
I have the same concern about MSM. A wolf in sheep’s clothing. Weak responses to egregious statements. If a dragon were running I think they would discuss the merits of its tough scaly skin and its tendency to breathe fire as a fun shake up of the norm, while completely ignoring the fact that it’s a mythical creature.
Man, this is complicated, but you really simplified things. Lindsay Graham needs to stay in his state-and the electoral college needs to go. It's just further evidence that the Republican Party will attempt nefarious ways to influence the outcome. Great piece today!
Former Nebraskan (NE-03) here. My mom still lives there and is a registered Republican though she has voted Democratic since at least the mid-90s; considering the candidates out in her part of the state* it's the only way she gets to vote in most elections at all.
* BTW, with respect, the blue dot on that map is actually over Grand Island, about three hours out of Omaha, heart of NE-03. It's on the correct state, though, so thanks for that! (Joy Reid yesterday... IYKYK)
It is also be increasingly undemocratic that by 2030, the ten most populous states in the country with have 54% of the population will have only 20 senators while the other 40 states with 46% of the population will have the other 80 senators. There is incentive for those 40 states to change their privileged position in the present status quo.
That's not undemocratic but the exact reason why the Founding Fathers set up the electoral college to begin with. They wanted a government that was geographically (and thus culturally) diverse. Back in 1789, they had the exact same discussion we are having today. At the time, it was actually even worse than today; the voting power of Virginia would have been all-controlling if they had gone by population size.
News from Arizona per Marc Elias, Democracy Docket: The Arizona Supreme Court will not disenfranchise 97,000 voters.
https://www.democracydocket.com. I’ve subscribed to Democracy Docket for a long time. There is a free daily newsletter. Paid subscribers get more detailed newsletters and can ask questions. Also NBC News poll reported 57% of registered voters do not like Project 2025. The Harris Walz campaign must start speaking up about this more and expand their talking points to include impact on agriculture, climate, veterans, education etc. 42 more days.
“Republicans learn it's easy to sue, hard to win. While Republicans are busy filing lawsuits, it’s the pro-democracy groups that are winning. For the cycle, the good guys have won 192 court cases and lost 81.”
If 57% already don't like Project 2025, Harris/Waltz speaking out about it is not going to add votes. I'm glad they are focusing on things people *aren't* aware of yet.
Now that the immediate crisis has passed, thank you for not sharing your heightened level of concern with us. Our collective BPs are grateful! Thanks also for explaining the connection between Maine and Nebraska in the Electoral College. And finally, thanks for sharing the good news!
A lovely explanation, thanks! The latest polls show Harris taking all the swing states, and a take-over of the Electoral College, by some 65-100 votes. I will publish this tomorrow. In the meantime, it is amusing to consider what the Trump loss will mean to Putin:
Excellent explanation. The details about the timing with Maine, the party switch, and the consideration of the run for mayor were really interesting. Thanks.
Have lived in Nebraska all my life. Pete Ricketts is to Nebraska politics what Trump is to national politics. He couldn't run for Governor again because of term limits. Got Pillen the pig farmer elected and that bought his appointment to the open Senate seat. Democrats here didn't even bother to field a candidate against Deb Fischer, who is horribly unpopular. Hopefully Dan Osborne can unseat her as an Independent candidate.
Hi Tammy; former Nebraskan here (NE-03), keeping up with the daily politics through my mom. Fischer's a goober. Out of curiosity, are you liking Vargas' chances? What's the vibe on that race?
Thank you for your thorough breakdown of what just happened.
Whether his motives were pure or calculated, McDonnell's action has blocked one avenue for the ratf*ckers. The GOP goal is absolutely to hold Harris to under 270 electoral votes and then have the House vote him in. They have their county level MAGA clerks in place all through the battleground states ready to refuse to certify the vote. I know that there is a veritable army of lawyers ready to descend upon them, but lawsuits amount to furtherance of the chaos. State and Federal marshals need to be standing at the ready to arrest on the spot any such clerk refusing to perform their ministerial duties. Even a few such arrests would have a dampening effect on the others.
The timing was noticeably corrupt, if this was truly a "thing" the constituents of Nebraska had been calling for it would have been believable back in '23, possibly plausible in Q1 '24. Less than 45 days ahead of election reeks of election interference and Lindsey Graham involvement stinks of repeat offender BS. GA Grand Jury got it right when they referred him for indictment. Vote 💙
Tom Miller, the election forecaster who uses the betting site "PredictIt" to see what odds the bookies are laying, thinks that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are going to get a landslide. The bookies are laying odds on up to 400 electoral votes. Since betting sites have to pay out once the results are in, they are REALLY thorough in their researching.
Here is a VERY convincing analysis from the Florida front lines about our chances in Florida courtesy of Scott Dworkin.
https://substack.com/@scottdworkin/p-149060157
Nikki Fried is the new Dem chair there and it looks like she's repaired the damage to the ground game in Florida. She also notes that, as of now, there is virtually no ground game by the Trumpstans in Florida.
Texas is winnable, too. Allred is ahead by a point in at least one poll. This suggests to me that Kamala is doing better than the MSM will lead us to believe.
I want to believe in the highest of goals. I want Florida AND Texas. I've lived in Texas. It's full of ranchers, oil men, and diverse blue cities. It's doable. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Thanks for this—as a long suffering Floridian I know we need momentum and to rebuild from the ground up! There are some other things happening here too, like the mobilization of traditionally not so heavily involved Asian Americans, due to the racist legislature passing laws restricting property ownership here, plus Haitians getting more involved for obvious reasons. The national party and Harris campaign have also sent thousands here to help with the ground game!
your state legislature passed racially restrictive laws? wait. what. how have i not heard of this.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/17/homes/florida-law-bans-chinese-citizens-buying-homes/index.html
Thank you for sharing this article. I can't imagine how anyone finds Florida a life sustaining place to live.
Some of us moved here almost 30 years ago and are pretty entrenched…we are doing our best to change things.
Commendable. What you're doing IS working! Yeay, Nikki!!!
Listen to the Scott Dworkin interview with Nikki Fried mentioned elsewhere in the the comments (here: https://substack.com/@scottdworkin/p-149060157). Florida is a beautiful, if threatened place, A lot of people who live there can't move or won't leave their friends and the local communities that have sustained them. A lot of other people care enough about the place and the people that they won't move. That kind of dedication can be inspirational.
After decades, I did move, but I still support, send money and help with public info. I was in a rural turning populated area and it wasn't real safe territory though I led protests. I am still entrenched, just from safer ground where I can do more good for the people of that once & future great state.
Florida is winnable if the college students vote. I believe it has I the largest college student population in America.
With abortion rights and marijuana on the ballot, it’s doable. The Dems do have to overcome a 100,000 registered republican gap but again it’s doable.
We must always strive for the possible.
Winnable in large part because of Rep Anna Eskamani’s (D-Orlando) non-profit People Power For Florida.Rep Anna and her team are boots-on-the-ground. Lots of opportunities and events at Florida colleges.Please share!📣
https://www.mobilize.us/peoplepowerforflorida/
She is a total rockstar!
Anna, whom I've followed for years, and now people like Congressman Frost. Hopefully in November, including Debbie Mucarsal-Powell and others. Out with Rick Scott and Matt Gaetz!
California has the largest by a significant amount.
Yes, in terms of sheer numbers. But Florida is no slouch either. UCF, FIU, UOF have over 183,000 combined. Now if only half vote our way….
NPAs are a huge swing vote here too
Aim high!
But remember, Texas Sec of State now has the authority to OVERTURN any election in Harris County and only Harris County (home to Houston and the 2nd largest population of Black Americans) if they believe there were 'issues' at just 2% of the county's polling locations. Past 'issues' considered worthy of tossing out 2 million votes include temporarily running out of the special paper required by our voting machines.
Don't doubt for one second that Abbott et al will try pulling this bs if Texas goes blue. Houston always votes Blue as does every major city in Texas.
I don’t think Texas will flip this election, but change is coming.
Terrifying!!!
And I firmly believe Fried would have won against deathsentence had she gotten the nomination, but maybe it is ultimately better where she has ended up!
She seems to imply that in the interview. :-)
I admit I haven’t watched it yet…😉
As someone who lived in Texas for the last 24 years, don't hold your breath for it to turn blue. The state is held hostage by incredibly corrupt Republicans like Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and Ken Paxton who won't let it happen. I'm pretty sure Beto beat Cruz in 2018 but, due to dirty tricks, wasn't allowed to win.
Just today, a jury refused to hold liable all but one of the nutjobs who almost ran a Biden/Harris campaign bus off the road in 2022. The San Marcos police department never got into trouble over their refusal to help the bus when they asked for it either.
It's very discouraging because Dems have been working hard for years now with few wins in the red areas. But I hope I'm wrong. I'll dance in the streets if Allred wins.
Unfortunately I think you’re correct. But the margins seem to be narrowing. As the population grows, its tilting toward blue.
Most young, college educated who are moving to your state are independents or Dems.
If Texas goes blue, the republicans will never win another election and they damn well know it so they’re suppressing voting and cheating as much as possible.
I think, demographically, it’s only a matter of time.
I have the same concern about MSM. A wolf in sheep’s clothing. Weak responses to egregious statements. If a dragon were running I think they would discuss the merits of its tough scaly skin and its tendency to breathe fire as a fun shake up of the norm, while completely ignoring the fact that it’s a mythical creature.
Man, this is complicated, but you really simplified things. Lindsay Graham needs to stay in his state-and the electoral college needs to go. It's just further evidence that the Republican Party will attempt nefarious ways to influence the outcome. Great piece today!
Good to know there is at least ONE Republican in office who is not totally devoid of personal integrity.
But note, he “was” a dem for 40 years…
Ya. I wonder if he switched for expediency. More Dems may have to try that in red states!
He switched over abortion. Let's hope he continues to vote with the Democrats on everything else.
Former Nebraskan (NE-03) here. My mom still lives there and is a registered Republican though she has voted Democratic since at least the mid-90s; considering the candidates out in her part of the state* it's the only way she gets to vote in most elections at all.
* BTW, with respect, the blue dot on that map is actually over Grand Island, about three hours out of Omaha, heart of NE-03. It's on the correct state, though, so thanks for that! (Joy Reid yesterday... IYKYK)
We wouldn't have nail biter elections if we used the one person/one vote standard, or if we awarded electoral votes as Maine and Nebraska do.
It's undemocratic for only seven states that contain 16.5% of the US population to decide the presidency.
It would also be undemocratic if the election was decided in just three or four big cities, as would have been the case in 2016.
It is also be increasingly undemocratic that by 2030, the ten most populous states in the country with have 54% of the population will have only 20 senators while the other 40 states with 46% of the population will have the other 80 senators. There is incentive for those 40 states to change their privileged position in the present status quo.
That's not undemocratic but the exact reason why the Founding Fathers set up the electoral college to begin with. They wanted a government that was geographically (and thus culturally) diverse. Back in 1789, they had the exact same discussion we are having today. At the time, it was actually even worse than today; the voting power of Virginia would have been all-controlling if they had gone by population size.
Another reason why this isn't over until it's over...and how the Bloated Yam could still pull it out.
Vigilance.
News from Arizona per Marc Elias, Democracy Docket: The Arizona Supreme Court will not disenfranchise 97,000 voters.
https://www.democracydocket.com. I’ve subscribed to Democracy Docket for a long time. There is a free daily newsletter. Paid subscribers get more detailed newsletters and can ask questions. Also NBC News poll reported 57% of registered voters do not like Project 2025. The Harris Walz campaign must start speaking up about this more and expand their talking points to include impact on agriculture, climate, veterans, education etc. 42 more days.
💙 Marc Elias….from a recent newsletter.
“Republicans learn it's easy to sue, hard to win. While Republicans are busy filing lawsuits, it’s the pro-democracy groups that are winning. For the cycle, the good guys have won 192 court cases and lost 81.”
If 57% already don't like Project 2025, Harris/Waltz speaking out about it is not going to add votes. I'm glad they are focusing on things people *aren't* aware of yet.
Now that the immediate crisis has passed, thank you for not sharing your heightened level of concern with us. Our collective BPs are grateful! Thanks also for explaining the connection between Maine and Nebraska in the Electoral College. And finally, thanks for sharing the good news!
It was just by chance that it worked out this way! I expected today to be a “take a deep breath and don’t stress out too much just yet” post.
So it came a day early!👏
More evidence that the Electoral College needs to go away. 🤬
No, but we need a Constitutional Amendment that bans winner-take-all nationwide.
A lovely explanation, thanks! The latest polls show Harris taking all the swing states, and a take-over of the Electoral College, by some 65-100 votes. I will publish this tomorrow. In the meantime, it is amusing to consider what the Trump loss will mean to Putin:
https://barrygander.substack.com/p/how-trump-would-end-the-russian-war
Jay, we appreciate the coverage
And the very clear and concise explanations.
Excellent explanation. The details about the timing with Maine, the party switch, and the consideration of the run for mayor were really interesting. Thanks.
Have lived in Nebraska all my life. Pete Ricketts is to Nebraska politics what Trump is to national politics. He couldn't run for Governor again because of term limits. Got Pillen the pig farmer elected and that bought his appointment to the open Senate seat. Democrats here didn't even bother to field a candidate against Deb Fischer, who is horribly unpopular. Hopefully Dan Osborne can unseat her as an Independent candidate.
Hi Tammy; former Nebraskan here (NE-03), keeping up with the daily politics through my mom. Fischer's a goober. Out of curiosity, are you liking Vargas' chances? What's the vibe on that race?
Thank you Jay. I read your post before deciding to take a Xanax. Today I didn’t need one.
Thank you for your thorough breakdown of what just happened.
Whether his motives were pure or calculated, McDonnell's action has blocked one avenue for the ratf*ckers. The GOP goal is absolutely to hold Harris to under 270 electoral votes and then have the House vote him in. They have their county level MAGA clerks in place all through the battleground states ready to refuse to certify the vote. I know that there is a veritable army of lawyers ready to descend upon them, but lawsuits amount to furtherance of the chaos. State and Federal marshals need to be standing at the ready to arrest on the spot any such clerk refusing to perform their ministerial duties. Even a few such arrests would have a dampening effect on the others.
Especially if getting arrested on those terms would cause them to be fired from their jobs.
You would think that refusing to perform the duties of your job would automatically terminate it, wouldn't you?
The timing was noticeably corrupt, if this was truly a "thing" the constituents of Nebraska had been calling for it would have been believable back in '23, possibly plausible in Q1 '24. Less than 45 days ahead of election reeks of election interference and Lindsey Graham involvement stinks of repeat offender BS. GA Grand Jury got it right when they referred him for indictment. Vote 💙
Democracy is going to need to win by more than one electoral vote, this is going to be a contested election unless it is a total blue tsunami.
Tom Miller, the election forecaster who uses the betting site "PredictIt" to see what odds the bookies are laying, thinks that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are going to get a landslide. The bookies are laying odds on up to 400 electoral votes. Since betting sites have to pay out once the results are in, they are REALLY thorough in their researching.
Let’s hope that this is NOT one of those times when the house wins.