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author

This piece has been corrected to note that Republicans, not Democrats, used to have 32 of the seats, and now they have 33.

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Here is a VERY convincing analysis from the Florida front lines about our chances in Florida courtesy of Scott Dworkin.

https://substack.com/@scottdworkin/p-149060157

Nikki Fried is the new Dem chair there and it looks like she's repaired the damage to the ground game in Florida. She also notes that, as of now, there is virtually no ground game by the Trumpstans in Florida.

Texas is winnable, too. Allred is ahead by a point in at least one poll. This suggests to me that Kamala is doing better than the MSM will lead us to believe.

I want to believe in the highest of goals. I want Florida AND Texas. I've lived in Texas. It's full of ranchers, oil men, and diverse blue cities. It's doable. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

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Thanks for this—as a long suffering Floridian I know we need momentum and to rebuild from the ground up! There are some other things happening here too, like the mobilization of traditionally not so heavily involved Asian Americans, due to the racist legislature passing laws restricting property ownership here, plus Haitians getting more involved for obvious reasons. The national party and Harris campaign have also sent thousands here to help with the ground game!

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your state legislature passed racially restrictive laws? wait. what. how have i not heard of this.

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Thank you for sharing this article. I can't imagine how anyone finds Florida a life sustaining place to live.

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Some of us moved here almost 30 years ago and are pretty entrenched…we are doing our best to change things.

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Commendable. What you're doing IS working! Yeay, Nikki!!!

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Listen to the Scott Dworkin interview with Nikki Fried mentioned elsewhere in the the comments (here: https://substack.com/@scottdworkin/p-149060157). Florida is a beautiful, if threatened place, A lot of people who live there can't move or won't leave their friends and the local communities that have sustained them. A lot of other people care enough about the place and the people that they won't move. That kind of dedication can be inspirational.

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After decades, I did move, but I still support, send money and help with public info. I was in a rural turning populated area and it wasn't real safe territory though I led protests. I am still entrenched, just from safer ground where I can do more good for the people of that once & future great state.

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Florida is winnable if the college students vote. I believe it has I the largest college student population in America.

With abortion rights and marijuana on the ballot, it’s doable. The Dems do have to overcome a 100,000 registered republican gap but again it’s doable.

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author

We must always strive for the possible.

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Winnable in large part because of Rep Anna Eskamani’s (D-Orlando) non-profit People Power For Florida.Rep Anna and her team are boots-on-the-ground. Lots of opportunities and events at Florida colleges.Please share!📣

https://www.mobilize.us/peoplepowerforflorida/

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She is a total rockstar!

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Anna, whom I've followed for years, and now people like Congressman Frost. Hopefully in November, including Debbie Mucarsal-Powell and others. Out with Rick Scott and Matt Gaetz!

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California has the largest by a significant amount.

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Yes, in terms of sheer numbers. But Florida is no slouch either. UCF, FIU, UOF have over 183,000 combined. Now if only half vote our way….

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NPAs are a huge swing vote here too

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DeathSantis is fighting both of those measures. He just got caught red-handed trying to let developers put hotels and pickleball courts in our natural state parks.

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Aim high!

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But remember, Texas Sec of State now has the authority to OVERTURN any election in Harris County and only Harris County (home to Houston and the 2nd largest population of Black Americans) if they believe there were 'issues' at just 2% of the county's polling locations. Past 'issues' considered worthy of tossing out 2 million votes include temporarily running out of the special paper required by our voting machines.

Don't doubt for one second that Abbott et al will try pulling this bs if Texas goes blue. Houston always votes Blue as does every major city in Texas.

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I don’t think Texas will flip this election, but change is coming.

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Terrifying!!!

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As someone who lived in Texas for the last 24 years, don't hold your breath for it to turn blue. The state is held hostage by incredibly corrupt Republicans like Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and Ken Paxton who won't let it happen. I'm pretty sure Beto beat Cruz in 2018 but, due to dirty tricks, wasn't allowed to win.

Just today, a jury refused to hold liable all but one of the nutjobs who almost ran a Biden/Harris campaign bus off the road in 2022. The San Marcos police department never got into trouble over their refusal to help the bus when they asked for it either.

It's very discouraging because Dems have been working hard for years now with few wins in the red areas. But I hope I'm wrong. I'll dance in the streets if Allred wins.

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Unfortunately I think you’re correct. But the margins seem to be narrowing. As the population grows, its tilting toward blue.

Most young, college educated who are moving to your state are independents or Dems.

If Texas goes blue, the republicans will never win another election and they damn well know it so they’re suppressing voting and cheating as much as possible.

I think, demographically, it’s only a matter of time.

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I learned not to hold my breath when I lived in Texas and watched with hope as Beto did his live streams on the road, which were fun, but in the end, a failure.

I'm hopeful that Kamala's surge is much bigger than is being reported. But not hopeful to the point of stupid. Just hopeful. It would end MAGA if she took Texas. Full stop. Game over. I hope the ground game there is good, because that's where these things are won and lost.

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Sadly, the ground game isn't nearly as good as it needs to be. Many people have given up on Texas because of the decades long stranglehold the Republicans have, so money and volunteers are in short supply. And the Texas Democratic Party doesn't have good leadership.

Beto didn't work with county parties during his runs and, until recently, neither did Allred. It's like people don't understand (as you clearly do) that local politics is everything. Beto has finally seen the light, so maybe that will make a difference.

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That’s too bad. That curtails my optimism, because ground game is everything in a state where you’re already hurting. Florida’s ground game seems much, much better. It was awful before. Thanks for the report from Texas!

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And I firmly believe Fried would have won against deathsentence had she gotten the nomination, but maybe it is ultimately better where she has ended up!

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She seems to imply that in the interview. :-)

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I admit I haven’t watched it yet…😉

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Sep 24·edited Sep 24

I have the same concern about MSM. A wolf in sheep’s clothing. Weak responses to egregious statements. If a dragon were running I think they would discuss the merits of its tough scaly skin and its tendency to breathe fire as a fun shake up of the norm, while completely ignoring the fact that it’s a mythical creature.

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This could be like 1980 when a bunch of states broke for Reagan at the last second. The reality is so many people have moved to Texas and Florida and the Carolinas since 2020 that we don’t have a firm grasp on how they will vote. So in SC and Charleston in particular the huge influx actually started prior to the pandemic and SC-1 went Democrat and it caught Republicans off guard.

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I think, unfortunately, Texas and Florida will tilt blue before SC.

SC may as well be Alabama or Mississippi.

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Both Carolinas are seeing big population gains but I agree SC won’t turn blue because it’s a higher percentage of 50 year old high net families that can live anywhere while NC is a higher percentage of younger people without families. Wealthy people love golf and beaches and in SC it’s very easy to get to NYC and Florida.

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Man, this is complicated, but you really simplified things. Lindsay Graham needs to stay in his state-and the electoral college needs to go. It's just further evidence that the Republican Party will attempt nefarious ways to influence the outcome. Great piece today!

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We wouldn't have nail biter elections if we used the one person/one vote standard, or if we awarded electoral votes as Maine and Nebraska do.

It's undemocratic for only seven states that contain 16.5% of the US population to decide the presidency.

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It would also be undemocratic if the election was decided in just three or four big cities, as would have been the case in 2016.

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It is also be increasingly undemocratic that by 2030, the ten most populous states in the country with have 54% of the population will have only 20 senators while the other 40 states with 46% of the population will have the other 80 senators. There is incentive for those 40 states to change their privileged position in the present status quo.

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In response to Kevin’s initial comment, every vote no matter from which state should have equal value!

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That's not undemocratic but the exact reason why the Founding Fathers set up the electoral college to begin with. They wanted a government that was geographically (and thus culturally) diverse. Back in 1789, they had the exact same discussion we are having today. At the time, it was actually even worse than today; the voting power of Virginia would have been all-controlling if they had gone by population size.

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It strikes me that far too many Americans, not the naturalized ones, seem to think that the founding fathers were gods and their words are so sacred that they should be etched in stone. If the foundering fathers really wanted a government that was geographically and culturally diverse, that was the exact opposite of what they gave us. There was no place for women, native Americans, black Americans or any others! I would respectfully suggest that the founding fathers were quite humble and that some, like BF and TJ, were in favor of a frequent reframing of the constitution on a regular basis, say 20 - 50 years to reflect changes. This would have to be done on a referendum basis to minimize the risks of minority rule.

You forgot to mention that 56% of Virginia’s population in 1789 was black and counted as 2/3 of a white but they were all counted in that total of approximately 520,000. Would Virginia and other slave owning states had that extra power so that they got to dominate the presidency, the government and the judiciary without the extra (non)votes of the slaves?

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Yes, they intended for rich, white, land-owning men, hopefully educated, to be the only ones voting, as you pointed out. A very flawed system, not to mention the compromises to get the slave-owning south on board.

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And that reframing of the Constitution has happened. 27 times so far. Mostly it was tweaks around the edges. Not because the Founding Fathers were gods, but because their ideas have stood the test of time. So much so that other democracies around the world actually copied our structure.

What you are proposing, though, would be the most massive rearchitecting of our form of government. If we did that, states like Alaska, Wyoming or Hawaii would be reduced to little more than Puerto Rico or Guam today.

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Interestingly, as you stated, other countries have copied much of our structure but in every case they have made significant changes subsequently with one exception, the USA. Are you proposing that DC, Puerto Rico, Guam, Virgin Islands and Samoa have 2 Senators each?

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They wanted a government controlled by white land-holding elites. That's why legislatures were to choose senators and the electoral college was supposed to eliminate unscrupulous actors. In that respect the EC failed miserably in 2016.

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Nonsense. With either a straight popular vote election, or a nationwide districted electoral college, votes *everywhere* matter. The big cities, as always, would contain many votes, but even the biggest cities could no longer drag their states with them. People in upstate New York and downstate Illinois and rural California could vote Republican and have it matter.

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Exactly. Nobody seems to care about those voters. The advertising blitz in my home state is bad enough but is nothing compared to the nonstop barrage of ads in the swing states!

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That's not because of the electoral college, though, but because of winner-take-all. Unfortunately, the move the R's in Nebraska tried to do has already been pulled by 48 other states, starting with Virginia way back in 1789. And, yes, winner-take-all is clearly an abuse of the electoral college. The Founding Fathers were very smart, but they did mess up on a few things. One obvious mistake is the Second Amendment. Another was that they didn't specify any federal voting standards at all.

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Undoing winner-take-all is what we're talking about.

The main objection to a fully districted electoral college (as Patt said, if we awarded electoral votes as Maine and Nebraska do) is that the districts in several states are gerrymandered, so we'd want to do something about that first, or at the same time.

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Then we are mostly in agreement. We don't have to throw out the electoral college, which I believe has a lot of value, just to get rid of winner take all.

I would favor allocating the electoral college not by district, but allocated by the statewide popular vote.

Or we can go back to what was the original idea behind the electoral college, to have it be a mirror of House and Senate. That would mean, two electors per state are elected by statewide popular vote (just like Senators are already), and the remaining ones are elected by House District.

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Just take the 2 senators out of the equation would be a good first step!

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Not only is it undemocratic for only 7 states with 16.5% of the US population to decide the presidency, that fact makes it so much easier and cheaper for malicious foreign actors to interfere successfully in US politics. With a popular vote, it would be tremendously difficult for foreign interference to succeed!

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Having only a few swing states is why AZ has been ground zero for every nutty election conspiracy and nutty audits. (CyberNinjas). Even proving those conspiracies as complete lies has not mattered to many here. You can't have crazy without R-AZ.

cR-AZy

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Sep 24Liked by Jay Kuo

Good to know there is at least ONE Republican in office who is not totally devoid of personal integrity.

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Sep 24Liked by Jay Kuo

But note, he “was” a dem for 40 years…

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Ya. I wonder if he switched for expediency. More Dems may have to try that in red states!

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He switched over abortion. Let's hope he continues to vote with the Democrats on everything else.

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Former Nebraskan (NE-03) here. My mom still lives there and is a registered Republican though she has voted Democratic since at least the mid-90s; considering the candidates out in her part of the state* it's the only way she gets to vote in most elections at all.

* BTW, with respect, the blue dot on that map is actually over Grand Island, about three hours out of Omaha, heart of NE-03. It's on the correct state, though, so thanks for that! (Joy Reid yesterday... IYKYK)

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News from Arizona per Marc Elias, Democracy Docket: The Arizona Supreme Court will not disenfranchise 97,000 voters.

https://www.democracydocket.com. I’ve subscribed to Democracy Docket for a long time. There is a free daily newsletter. Paid subscribers get more detailed newsletters and can ask questions. Also NBC News poll reported 57% of registered voters do not like Project 2025. The Harris Walz campaign must start speaking up about this more and expand their talking points to include impact on agriculture, climate, veterans, education etc. 42 more days.

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💙 Marc Elias….from a recent newsletter.

“Republicans learn it's easy to sue, hard to win. While Republicans are busy filing lawsuits, it’s the pro-democracy groups that are winning. For the cycle, the good guys have won 192 court cases and lost 81.”

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If 57% already don't like Project 2025, Harris/Waltz speaking out about it is not going to add votes. I'm glad they are focusing on things people *aren't* aware of yet.

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Another reason why this isn't over until it's over...and how the Bloated Yam could still pull it out.

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author

Vigilance.

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Now that the immediate crisis has passed, thank you for not sharing your heightened level of concern with us. Our collective BPs are grateful! Thanks also for explaining the connection between Maine and Nebraska in the Electoral College. And finally, thanks for sharing the good news!

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author

It was just by chance that it worked out this way! I expected today to be a “take a deep breath and don’t stress out too much just yet” post.

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So it came a day early!👏

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Sep 24Liked by Jay Kuo

More evidence that the Electoral College needs to go away. 🤬

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No, but we need a Constitutional Amendment that bans winner-take-all nationwide.

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A lovely explanation, thanks! The latest polls show Harris taking all the swing states, and a take-over of the Electoral College, by some 65-100 votes. I will publish this tomorrow. In the meantime, it is amusing to consider what the Trump loss will mean to Putin:

https://barrygander.substack.com/p/how-trump-would-end-the-russian-war

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Thank you Jay. I read your post before deciding to take a Xanax. Today I didn’t need one.

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Sep 24Liked by Jay Kuo

Jay, we appreciate the coverage

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And the very clear and concise explanations.

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Sep 24Liked by Jay Kuo

Excellent explanation. The details about the timing with Maine, the party switch, and the consideration of the run for mayor were really interesting. Thanks.

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Sep 24Liked by Jay Kuo

Have lived in Nebraska all my life. Pete Ricketts is to Nebraska politics what Trump is to national politics. He couldn't run for Governor again because of term limits. Got Pillen the pig farmer elected and that bought his appointment to the open Senate seat. Democrats here didn't even bother to field a candidate against Deb Fischer, who is horribly unpopular. Hopefully Dan Osborne can unseat her as an Independent candidate.

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Hi Tammy; former Nebraskan here (NE-03), keeping up with the daily politics through my mom. Fischer's a goober. Out of curiosity, are you liking Vargas' chances? What's the vibe on that race?

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I'm not in that district, I live in Lincoln. Bacon barely won the last election, and Vargas has a pretty good war chest. I would like to think he can pull it off. I find it so odd that most people don't seem to care for the Republican incumbents, but still seem to vote for them. Ricketts is mostly despised here, but he has big time money, and unfortunately people in Western Nebraska just continuously vote against their own interests.

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Yeah. Back in the day they'd overlook the party affiliatiion to vote for Virginia Smith, but... too many folks acting like it's football, I swear

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Sep 24Liked by Jay Kuo

McConnell the “Grim Reaper “ is an EVIL POS. He could have stopped Trump ….TWICE and he chose money and power over Democracy. History will not be kind to this bastard!!

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He has been a Heritage Fund operative – THE MAJN operative, really – for DECADES!

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Thank you for your thorough breakdown of what just happened.

Whether his motives were pure or calculated, McDonnell's action has blocked one avenue for the ratf*ckers. The GOP goal is absolutely to hold Harris to under 270 electoral votes and then have the House vote him in. They have their county level MAGA clerks in place all through the battleground states ready to refuse to certify the vote. I know that there is a veritable army of lawyers ready to descend upon them, but lawsuits amount to furtherance of the chaos. State and Federal marshals need to be standing at the ready to arrest on the spot any such clerk refusing to perform their ministerial duties. Even a few such arrests would have a dampening effect on the others.

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Especially if getting arrested on those terms would cause them to be fired from their jobs.

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You would think that refusing to perform the duties of your job would automatically terminate it, wouldn't you?

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Sure, if we're talking about some at-will employee. As I pointed out above, local election chiefs are almost always elected officials. Not fireable in any normal sense.

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Hard to get "fired" from an elected position - which city and county clerks are in most places. There ARE ways to get rid of them, but they generally involve other elected officials who are normally of the same party - hardly ever used except in case of provable malfeasance, such as embezzlement. Do you think a county clerk in, say Texas, would be shitcanned by a county board or executive for doing what all the rest of them want done? I don't.

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