Around 9pm on Saturday, after President Biden and Speaker McCarthy held a 90 minute telephonic “summit” to break the logjam between Congressional and White House negotiators, they emerged with a tentative budget and debt limit deal.
Sure they hate the compromise but their choices are pretty limited now. Their megadonors will have had their say this weekend, and this close to default it won’t be “hold firm” because they’re too close to losing their gajillions.
We’ve said it before and I’ll say it again too, no one is more qualified and experienced to negotiate this trainwreck than Joe Biden. Right down to the wire. Who’s hostage now?
I've been wondering about this too. Cheap stock or no cheap stock, a global economic crisis cannot possibly be good for the super-rich. So, why do they keep backing the party that threatens .... wait for it.... wait for it.... aha.... a global economic crisis?
I thought the ricos were okay with default because it lowered stock prices so they could buy more and have even more money when the market came back up.
I’m trying to figure out if there’s a way they can make the budget an issue again this fall. In theory, sure, they could, but they have even less leverage then than they have now, so this feels like it.
I was thinking the same and hope this provides guidelines for budget negotiations later. Compromise is key to politics. This hostage negotiation, my way or we blow up the country was a lousy way to bring it about, but I think you are right, it provides top cover to the necessity of compromise. Thanks Jay for all you do.
My circumstances are the same as you with the exception my disabled adult child is a son. We are a tiny bit luckier than some as we do have a small savings that would carry us through about a month. After that we would lose everything.
Thanks for a concise and insightful analysis, Jay. The GOP is playing with fire and there are sure to be theatrics to come. Bottom line, Team Joe has the upper hand and will get it over the line.
I just watched the glad handing press conference where they praised a "strong leader" McCarthy over and over. It made me giggle. Insecure much? The party that claims to be fiscally responsible (unless it's passing unpaid for tax cuts for their buddies every chance they get) are suddenly grievously offended when the bill comes due and claim that there isn't enough money. Such hypocrisy.
There are loud protestations from the right already. Whether they gather into a big bloc to try and stop the bill remains to be seen. My guess is that they lose dozens of members, but that the moderate Dems make up the diff.
We’re all waiting to see the details of the agreement on the IRS funding. My guess is that it winds up being only a fraction of the $80 billion, something closer to $10 billion or less. That would still permit the IRS to go after wealthy cheats.
It isn't clear whether this involves not hiring replacements for retiring IRS agents. If not, the IRS can just hired the "get the rich welcher" agents to replace the retiree.
The rich who cheat (welsh) on their taxes. The new IRS funding was going to hire specialized agents to audit highly complex returns. Maybe the audit will find them clean. Maybe not. Won’t know until they look
The IRS has been working toward using AI algorithms to do much of the work that would normally require extra auditors. As long as privacy concerns are met, & said algorithms don’t target lower earners or POC--it’s the future & it’s here.
Thank you for the detailed explanation and especially for explaining that it is the BUDGET negotiation. Nearly everything else I’ve seen calls it the debt ceiling negotiation with no mention of the budget.
I’ve been hoping that it was the actual budget deal being worked, and not surprised that the media got it wrong (and the Dem’s messaging failed once again).
The way you’ve described the deal, it sounds like Biden did a masterful job.
I think Biden had to walk a bit of a tight wire. He needed the GOP to believe they were negotiating their bill, when in fact they were negotiating his budget. Compromise bills are a strange mixture of giving enough face to your opponent while taking as much from him as possible so that you get the win yet also don’t lose too much. Now that he has gotten the win, it’s time to message loudly and clearly.
Dems are so very good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And so good at shooting themselves in both feet as well as the hand not holding the gun.
Now it is time to start signing up the (hopefully) blue wave of young people to vote as well as convincing the Independents to vote blue.
Write your representatives and senators and tell them to vote for this bill.
I wonder if McCarthy is counting on some Dems to save his Speakership. Could that be a strategy to let the fascists know that political terrorism is a nonstarter in a democracy?
I was thinking along the same lines. It only takes one Rep to kick McCarthy out. One of the threats may well have been to peel off enough Republicans to make Hakeem Jeffries the new speaker.
Zero Republicans will vote for Jeffries. I don’t see it. It takes one Republican to set McCarthy up to get voted out but my understanding is it still requires a majority of members present to vote for him to keep his seat. Dems are much more interested in getting on with the business of running the country.
You are probably correct that no Repugs will vote for Jefferies.
However, there are several Repug reps that represent districts where Biden won. They have to be concerned.
Here is my fantasy:
1. A vote is called on Just OK Kevin’s speakership.
2. A roll call vote ensues.
3. At least 5 of the not so crazy-more sane Repugs are absent.
4. Just before the vote ends, the not so crazies reappear and vote for Jefferies.
5. They immediately hold a press conference to announce they are changing parties. I would love them to change to Democrat but I realize that is a long stretch goal. Changing to Independents would suffice.
6. Then the members of the Unfreedom caucus howl and Just OK Kevin is crushed.
You are correct in your thinking with the one Congress critter bringing a vote to the floor to relieve Kevin of his duties. If it only took one vote to actually get rid of him, that likely would've happened by now.
The mere threat of a repeat of the 15-round vote last time may have been enough. And some of the more reasonable (I refuse to call them "moderate") Republicans in swing districts may be as anxious about the nutcases as Democrats, and could flip or even switch parties.
Thank you for the concise analysis and summation here.
The Petulant Left is up in arms about this, yelling about the 14th ammendment and other fantasies. One of those also being that Biden shouldn't have negotiated at all. Ridiculous.
What they and so many others keep forgetting: this would not be happening had Dems kept the House. That's it, the end.
I don’t fault progressives for standing up for their constituencies and pushing back on the increased work requirements. It’s what they ran on, and this bill was not going to please everyone for sure. There seems to be more pain on the right, and for that I am satisfied.
Every day that maga Republicans are livid, is a good day for the rest of us. We need the Progressives to not tank this. They can get rather pissy sometimes when they don't get every single thing on their list. Thank you for the insight.
I believe that McCarthy has assurances from Biden that he'll keep his Speakers position.
Biden got a good deal negotiating (as usual), and McCarthy is saying 'nice' things about Biden. The chaoes is over and I agree. Lets go back to (crazies) normal.
Sure they hate the compromise but their choices are pretty limited now. Their megadonors will have had their say this weekend, and this close to default it won’t be “hold firm” because they’re too close to losing their gajillions.
We’ve said it before and I’ll say it again too, no one is more qualified and experienced to negotiate this trainwreck than Joe Biden. Right down to the wire. Who’s hostage now?
I've been wondering about this too. Cheap stock or no cheap stock, a global economic crisis cannot possibly be good for the super-rich. So, why do they keep backing the party that threatens .... wait for it.... wait for it.... aha.... a global economic crisis?
I thought the ricos were okay with default because it lowered stock prices so they could buy more and have even more money when the market came back up.
Thank you so much for explaining things the way you do, and interpreting what is happening to our country. I don't even listen to news media anymore
The fact that this not only resolves the debt ceiling, but the budget, through the end of Biden's first term is huge.
I’m trying to figure out if there’s a way they can make the budget an issue again this fall. In theory, sure, they could, but they have even less leverage then than they have now, so this feels like it.
I was thinking the same and hope this provides guidelines for budget negotiations later. Compromise is key to politics. This hostage negotiation, my way or we blow up the country was a lousy way to bring it about, but I think you are right, it provides top cover to the necessity of compromise. Thanks Jay for all you do.
I am disabled and what the GQP were proposing terrified me to my very core.
Thank you.
Thank you for always writing with clarity.
I can breathe again. ♥️
I'm with you. I'm on Social Security and have an adult daughter on disability. We'd be devastated if either missed even one month's payment.
My circumstances are the same as you with the exception my disabled adult child is a son. We are a tiny bit luckier than some as we do have a small savings that would carry us through about a month. After that we would lose everything.
Thanks for a concise and insightful analysis, Jay. The GOP is playing with fire and there are sure to be theatrics to come. Bottom line, Team Joe has the upper hand and will get it over the line.
I just watched the glad handing press conference where they praised a "strong leader" McCarthy over and over. It made me giggle. Insecure much? The party that claims to be fiscally responsible (unless it's passing unpaid for tax cuts for their buddies every chance they get) are suddenly grievously offended when the bill comes due and claim that there isn't enough money. Such hypocrisy.
The glad handing and back slapping made me want to hurl.
Nice summation.
No way those House Hyenas just go gentle though. Dig in for some cacophonous Lord of the Flies on spiced meth type stuff.
There are loud protestations from the right already. Whether they gather into a big bloc to try and stop the bill remains to be seen. My guess is that they lose dozens of members, but that the moderate Dems make up the diff.
I think we're in a very telling moment.
Here's to interesting times!
Yup, let the fun begin. The toddlers in the House aren't likely to let this go gently into the night.
Maybe the toddlers need a nap and let the adults deal with the budget !!
Well said. 🤪
Bingo. The House 'Freedom For Us Caucus' Might Tank Everything Though, Somehow.
Popping the corn.
I am a bit perturbed about the IRS funding. The deficit reduction depended on it.
We’re all waiting to see the details of the agreement on the IRS funding. My guess is that it winds up being only a fraction of the $80 billion, something closer to $10 billion or less. That would still permit the IRS to go after wealthy cheats.
It isn't clear whether this involves not hiring replacements for retiring IRS agents. If not, the IRS can just hired the "get the rich welcher" agents to replace the retiree.
Who are the "get the rich welcher agents?"
The rich who cheat (welsh) on their taxes. The new IRS funding was going to hire specialized agents to audit highly complex returns. Maybe the audit will find them clean. Maybe not. Won’t know until they look
Aah! Thanks Susan.
The IRS has been working toward using AI algorithms to do much of the work that would normally require extra auditors. As long as privacy concerns are met, & said algorithms don’t target lower earners or POC--it’s the future & it’s here.
Thank you for the detailed explanation and especially for explaining that it is the BUDGET negotiation. Nearly everything else I’ve seen calls it the debt ceiling negotiation with no mention of the budget.
I’ve been hoping that it was the actual budget deal being worked, and not surprised that the media got it wrong (and the Dem’s messaging failed once again).
The way you’ve described the deal, it sounds like Biden did a masterful job.
I think Biden had to walk a bit of a tight wire. He needed the GOP to believe they were negotiating their bill, when in fact they were negotiating his budget. Compromise bills are a strange mixture of giving enough face to your opponent while taking as much from him as possible so that you get the win yet also don’t lose too much. Now that he has gotten the win, it’s time to message loudly and clearly.
Yes!
Clear, honest, understandable, consistent messaging.
And stop all the whining. We won!
Dems are so very good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And so good at shooting themselves in both feet as well as the hand not holding the gun.
Now it is time to start signing up the (hopefully) blue wave of young people to vote as well as convincing the Independents to vote blue.
Write your representatives and senators and tell them to vote for this bill.
I wonder if McCarthy is counting on some Dems to save his Speakership. Could that be a strategy to let the fascists know that political terrorism is a nonstarter in a democracy?
I was thinking along the same lines. It only takes one Rep to kick McCarthy out. One of the threats may well have been to peel off enough Republicans to make Hakeem Jeffries the new speaker.
Zero Republicans will vote for Jeffries. I don’t see it. It takes one Republican to set McCarthy up to get voted out but my understanding is it still requires a majority of members present to vote for him to keep his seat. Dems are much more interested in getting on with the business of running the country.
You are probably correct that no Repugs will vote for Jefferies.
However, there are several Repug reps that represent districts where Biden won. They have to be concerned.
Here is my fantasy:
1. A vote is called on Just OK Kevin’s speakership.
2. A roll call vote ensues.
3. At least 5 of the not so crazy-more sane Repugs are absent.
4. Just before the vote ends, the not so crazies reappear and vote for Jefferies.
5. They immediately hold a press conference to announce they are changing parties. I would love them to change to Democrat but I realize that is a long stretch goal. Changing to Independents would suffice.
6. Then the members of the Unfreedom caucus howl and Just OK Kevin is crushed.
You are correct in your thinking with the one Congress critter bringing a vote to the floor to relieve Kevin of his duties. If it only took one vote to actually get rid of him, that likely would've happened by now.
The mere threat of a repeat of the 15-round vote last time may have been enough. And some of the more reasonable (I refuse to call them "moderate") Republicans in swing districts may be as anxious about the nutcases as Democrats, and could flip or even switch parties.
"You know, normal crazy GOP kind of stuff. The kind that doesn’t have a bomb attached to it."
- Thanks, I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
Thank you for the concise analysis and summation here.
The Petulant Left is up in arms about this, yelling about the 14th ammendment and other fantasies. One of those also being that Biden shouldn't have negotiated at all. Ridiculous.
What they and so many others keep forgetting: this would not be happening had Dems kept the House. That's it, the end.
I don’t fault progressives for standing up for their constituencies and pushing back on the increased work requirements. It’s what they ran on, and this bill was not going to please everyone for sure. There seems to be more pain on the right, and for that I am satisfied.
Oh same here, re: more pain on the right. All told, this is a win for Biden, Dems, and, ultimately, America.
Hopeful! And once again, this is no way to run a country. Bleh.
Every day that maga Republicans are livid, is a good day for the rest of us. We need the Progressives to not tank this. They can get rather pissy sometimes when they don't get every single thing on their list. Thank you for the insight.
I don’t think the Progressives have the votes to tank it.
Good to know.
I believe that McCarthy has assurances from Biden that he'll keep his Speakers position.
Biden got a good deal negotiating (as usual), and McCarthy is saying 'nice' things about Biden. The chaoes is over and I agree. Lets go back to (crazies) normal.
I’m less certain about this, but no way to know.
Yeah maybe a little under the table quid pro quo here.
Thank you once again for keeping us informed.
Could the entire bill be inserted into the discharge petition to guarantee its passage?
The discharge could be amended, yes, but it sounds like the faster route is a House vote on the bill now scheduled for Wednesday.
Thank you, Jay!