I’m currently working up a piece on The Big Picture that looks at each of the swings states—first the Blue Wall Great Lakes battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, then the Sunbelt states of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada—to discuss what we can (and cannot) assess from the early turnout.
Thank you so much, Jay. I have been increasingly anxious over the last couple of days as virtually all the reporting out there now has a tie or Trump leading. It’s painful and you are a welcome ray of light and unbiased data.
If you can, see if you can read @tomiahonen on either Mastodon or Spoutible. Each Saturday he average the 10 most recent (reputable) polls and sees Harris ahead in each of the Swing States by a few points and ahead nationally by 5 points.
Remember election night 2020? What a freaking shi#show! It was a nightmare! Trump got behind a podium with the presidential seal on it and DECLARED himself the winner! The votes weren’t even CLOSE to being counted yet.
Counting down the days until election day makes me anxious because when you want something now, 12 days seems like a year! I can't wait to celebrate Harris/Walz EPIC victory wearing this great "We the People means EVERYONE" shirt in the streets on November 5th 👇
And remember election night 2015? When we all KNEW that Hillary had won the election? And then, she didn't? It was a nightmare! I guess I have pretty severe PTSD over that. Hadn't put it that way to myself before...
Thanks jay, in Az the attack ads for tRump and lake are getting more and more desperate and the counter ads show more Republicans not voting the party line choosing country over party which I found encouraging, hotly contested here.
I agree, I was devastated by that election. This one should be different, the Dobbs decision was made since the last presidential election, and I believe that women of all parties will vote for Harris/Walz.
I only know yesterday the 23rd I voted ( had to go to City Hall in Hartford) and there was a lot of people there at 10:15 (early voting started in CT like Monday at 10 AM) and mostly elderly in fact before I went in, There was a line behind me. When I filled out my ballot and put it in the correct area (what district I lived in that drop box was filled I mean tippy top filled maybe it was from the day before or the mail? I didn't look. Just placed mine and left so) People are voting now instead of November 5th but then again elderly
Thank you for everything you are doing. I for one am terrified that Trump will prevail and am suffering extreme anxiety over the election. Your articles help keep me grounded.
Too many people have been deceived into believing the exact opposite of the truth about "the Wall," immigration, Trump's intentions, his opinion of the Constitution, etc. I tried reaching out to my sister, but it's not possible to change her mind. The truth to her is the opposite of what I know to be the truth. Those people will vote for Trump no matter what. They are easily led to think anyone speaking against him is lying.
Mine, too. I am fixated on what's happening, as if my constant thoughts/worry could make a difference. I just realized that part of what I'm experiencing is PTSD from the 2016 election. We all knew that Hillary would win -- and then... It was a nightmare. God, PLEASE don't let that happen again! It would be 100 X worse for our country.
I've been distracting myself from election fraught anxiety by focusing on how to ensure a convicted rapist, 33 count felon and Hitler fan or his ilk, will never again be allowed to run for the presidency.
The problem is, the founders and revolutionaries were prominent, accomplished 18th Century Americans living in mostly small, rural places, where they were well known and respected. They assumed their successors would be as well. Thus, the idea of filtering candidates beyond age and birth was never considered..
Given, the last 9 years, I think it's past time, for filling this gaping, dangerous space.
I have been polled three times in recent weeks. I am in Oregon and the polls were mostly for state legislative races, but they always asked about the presidential race too. Two polls were initiated by text and one on the phone. My local campaign activities mean that for now I have to answer the phone for numbers I don't know.
Polls are usually (or used to be) done by scientifically selecting a certain number of people who are registered to vote for one party or the other, those who have not declared their affiliation, and those who aren't registered. Those numbers are a miniature reflection of the large population. Most of us will never, ever be contacted!
That shows that in the past 12 months there have been 9.1M new Dem vs 6.1M new GOP, and 3.1M new Independents. Very interesting is that around half of all the new Dem registrations have come in the last two months. That *looks* like ~4M folks who wouldn't vote Biden but would greatly prefer Harris to Trump - enough to register and certainly to vote. Nothing similar in the GOP data.
I may be misinterpreting this because AFAIK Tom Bonier of TargetSmart hasn't pointed to it in his recent appearances eg. w Simon Rosenberg on Hopium.
Simon Rosenberg is reporting that early-vote implications are running fairly positive for R's outside the "swing states", where there the Dems are sticking it...we shall see how this is reflected in Election Day in-person voting.
Thank you so much, Jay. I have been increasingly anxious over the last couple of days as virtually all the reporting out there now has a tie or Trump leading. It’s painful and you are a welcome ray of light and unbiased data.
If you can, see if you can read @tomiahonen on either Mastodon or Spoutible. Each Saturday he average the 10 most recent (reputable) polls and sees Harris ahead in each of the Swing States by a few points and ahead nationally by 5 points.
That’s fantastic! Thanks!
Really wish Tomi would start a Substack. Miss him from the heady days of Post.
He's just as good on Spoutible!
I believe things are going to go very well 🙏
Remember election night 2020? What a freaking shi#show! It was a nightmare! Trump got behind a podium with the presidential seal on it and DECLARED himself the winner! The votes weren’t even CLOSE to being counted yet.
Counting down the days until election day makes me anxious because when you want something now, 12 days seems like a year! I can't wait to celebrate Harris/Walz EPIC victory wearing this great "We the People means EVERYONE" shirt in the streets on November 5th 👇
teespring.com/wtpmelb
And remember election night 2015? When we all KNEW that Hillary had won the election? And then, she didn't? It was a nightmare! I guess I have pretty severe PTSD over that. Hadn't put it that way to myself before...
I’m with you! Please pray this goes to our Kamala !
I've been praying for a while, now!
Truly .. every word Thumbs Up.. and I’m adding out loud prayers in my house… my dog is worried about my talking to
Myself w/ such vehemence 😉
Love it! ((( )))
Thanks jay, in Az the attack ads for tRump and lake are getting more and more desperate and the counter ads show more Republicans not voting the party line choosing country over party which I found encouraging, hotly contested here.
I'm already having pre-election anxiety. I'll never forget how hard I cried after the 2016 election....I don't want to relive that.
I agree, I was devastated by that election. This one should be different, the Dobbs decision was made since the last presidential election, and I believe that women of all parties will vote for Harris/Walz.
Praying that you are right.
I have been having severe pre-election anxiety. I just realized that part of it is PTSD from what happened in 2016 -- to everyone's shock and horror.
"Together, we can get through this!" -- and if darkness descends, we can still find ways to get through it together...
Thank you, Jay. Your insight is always appreciated!
I only know yesterday the 23rd I voted ( had to go to City Hall in Hartford) and there was a lot of people there at 10:15 (early voting started in CT like Monday at 10 AM) and mostly elderly in fact before I went in, There was a line behind me. When I filled out my ballot and put it in the correct area (what district I lived in that drop box was filled I mean tippy top filled maybe it was from the day before or the mail? I didn't look. Just placed mine and left so) People are voting now instead of November 5th but then again elderly
Thank you for everything you are doing. I for one am terrified that Trump will prevail and am suffering extreme anxiety over the election. Your articles help keep me grounded.
Too many people have been deceived into believing the exact opposite of the truth about "the Wall," immigration, Trump's intentions, his opinion of the Constitution, etc. I tried reaching out to my sister, but it's not possible to change her mind. The truth to her is the opposite of what I know to be the truth. Those people will vote for Trump no matter what. They are easily led to think anyone speaking against him is lying.
Im sorry that man has come between you and your family.
Don't forget to give us updates now and then about your own little family!
My anxiety is through the roof!!
Mine, too. I am fixated on what's happening, as if my constant thoughts/worry could make a difference. I just realized that part of what I'm experiencing is PTSD from the 2016 election. We all knew that Hillary would win -- and then... It was a nightmare. God, PLEASE don't let that happen again! It would be 100 X worse for our country.
I've been distracting myself from election fraught anxiety by focusing on how to ensure a convicted rapist, 33 count felon and Hitler fan or his ilk, will never again be allowed to run for the presidency.
The problem is, the founders and revolutionaries were prominent, accomplished 18th Century Americans living in mostly small, rural places, where they were well known and respected. They assumed their successors would be as well. Thus, the idea of filtering candidates beyond age and birth was never considered..
Given, the last 9 years, I think it's past time, for filling this gaping, dangerous space.
Really looking forward to the deep dive, particularly on PA. Looks like early vote lead for D's in PA is up to 365K.
Way too much attention to polls and pundits. No one's left to be persuaded. The election's been decided. We just don't know it yet.
I would like to know who has been polled. At lunch today of 25 people not one had answered a pollster.
I have been polled three times in recent weeks. I am in Oregon and the polls were mostly for state legislative races, but they always asked about the presidential race too. Two polls were initiated by text and one on the phone. My local campaign activities mean that for now I have to answer the phone for numbers I don't know.
Polls are usually (or used to be) done by scientifically selecting a certain number of people who are registered to vote for one party or the other, those who have not declared their affiliation, and those who aren't registered. Those numbers are a miniature reflection of the large population. Most of us will never, ever be contacted!
TargetSmart has made some encouraging voter registration data available. See
https://targetsmart.com/the-targetsmart-voter-registration-dashboard/
That shows that in the past 12 months there have been 9.1M new Dem vs 6.1M new GOP, and 3.1M new Independents. Very interesting is that around half of all the new Dem registrations have come in the last two months. That *looks* like ~4M folks who wouldn't vote Biden but would greatly prefer Harris to Trump - enough to register and certainly to vote. Nothing similar in the GOP data.
I may be misinterpreting this because AFAIK Tom Bonier of TargetSmart hasn't pointed to it in his recent appearances eg. w Simon Rosenberg on Hopium.
FINGERS CROSSED!!! ALL OF 'EM!!!
I saw a headline saying that Trump had a two point lead in the national popular vote. I laughed and moved along without reading that garbage.
Simon Rosenberg is reporting that early-vote implications are running fairly positive for R's outside the "swing states", where there the Dems are sticking it...we shall see how this is reflected in Election Day in-person voting.
😨
Has anyone seen the completed Deeper Dive ? I’m a subscriber and can’t find it