New parent tip #1, and the most difficult one is to sleep when they sleep. It turns everything upside down but take heart, it only lasts for a short time. Soon enough she will begin sleeping on your schedule and not the other way around. Tip #2, lean heavily on your support people 🥰 Tip #3, savor every moment. It really does go so very quickly. We have warm weather awaiting you up here in NorCal!
Yes, sleep when the baby sleeps is the best advice but so hard to do when that's your only time to try to get everything done. That is when you learn to let things go or rely on others to help you with things like laundry or cooking/cleaning etc.
My friends with new little ones say that putting their child on top of the clothes dryer and turning it on helps with the baby's sleep. The noise, warmth, and vibration takes the place of spending time and gas riding around in the car.
My son took me on many 2am car trips. He was one of those babies who didn’t sleep until he was a teenager. He’s 45 now, and amazingly, he’s a wonderful person! I don’t for a minute regret not leaving him out in the wild to fend for himself, but it was a close call sometimes. 🤣 Enjoy every moment. They grow up way too quickly.
My son never slept through the night until he was six years old! He's married now with children of his own, and his oldest still doesn't sleep through the night at four years old! I guess what goes around, comes aroundl☺️
It should be noted that, according to Psychology Today, many children during the past decade have been unable to sleep because they are afraid there is a large, orange, slimy monster lurking in their closet.
That same orange devil with the strange hair lurks in my closet too. It keeps me awake shaking all night every night. He has a musky sidekick that makes strange rocket type noises.
(Please excuse my foul language; Fraud Trump brings out the worst in people.)
August 17, 2024
Donald J Trump
Mar-A-Lago
1100 S Ocean Blvd
Palm Beach, FL 33480
Dear Piece-of-Shit Donald,
Let me take just a few minutes to explain why I would never, ever, ever, ever, ever vote for you......
Let me begin by saying that you are a blatant serial liar, you are the ultimate con, you are a fraud, you are a grifter, you are a total bull-shitter, and you are a scumbag. In my humble opinion, you are a racist, a misogynist and a total fucking asshole. And, a Hitler-adoring fascist as well. Almost every time you open your rotten, nasty mouth, you lie about something. You are a totally disgusting person.
And, you are Putin’s Puppet; Putin helped you squeak out a win in 2016, but his attempt to help you get re-elected in 2020, thank God, failed miserably. Putin is trying to get you elected for a second term; he knows that you will hand Ukraine to him on a silver platter and that you will pull the USA out of the NATO Alliance. In my mind, you are a traitor! A god damn fucking traitor!
And, you are a terrible businessperson. Every intelligent person in America knows that had you simply invested in the stock market every penny your KKK- racist father left you, you would, today, be a REAL billionaire many times over. The fact that you are not really a billionaire means that you aren’t a successful businessperson. The only two things that generated whatever wealth you do have today stemmed from two things. The Fake/Fraud/Con Apprentice reality TV show and the hundreds of millions of dollars Putin-directed Russian Oligarchs and Russian Mafia laundered through your condo projects.
Continue to demean women, asswipe. Continue your racist ways, asswipe. You will find out in November that the vast majority of Americans believe, like I do, that you were America’s Presidential Accident and that you are America’s Disgrace.
I hope you rot in hell, scumbag. Perhaps today would be a good day for you to go grab some woman by her pussy. Or shoot someone on 5th Avenue. Or call someone the “n-word” like you did during a planning session for an Apprentice episode. Or reflect on your memories of playing with your former buddy pedophile sex-abuser Jeffrey Epstein. Or invite a fellow racist and a fellow anti- Semite over for drinks and dinner. Or, join a march with your torch-carrying “fine-people” Neo-Nazi’s. Or, work on our next rambling, idiotic, nonsensical, hate-filled, divisive, dumbass rally speech. (I do enjoy listening to you make a fool out of yourself.)
It pisses me off that newspapers and news websites, all across America, don’t have the balls to call you out for the blatant liar you are. The title of the article: “Donald J Trump is a Liar, a Con and a Fraud”. You put up a post on TruthSocial that said, “I know nothing about Project 2025”. You fucking liar. After you said that, someone posted, in the Internet, a photo of you sitting next to Scum, Piece-of-Shit, Fascist Kevin Roberts (President of the Heritage Foundation) on a private jet on your way with Roberts to a Heritage Foundation conference, and you were a speaker at that conference. “Trump told the audience that the Heritage Foundation was ‘going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do.’" You god damn fucking liar.
Unfortunately for you (but, fortunately for Americans) your next “term” will be a prison term. I’ve reached out to Honorable Judge Juan Merchan to ask him to start your prison sentence on President Kamala Harris’ Inauguration Day!
Disrespectfully yours,
Joel
p.s., for intelligence/intellectually-challenged MAGAts (rhymes with maggots), President Kamala Harris’ first name is pronounced “, LA”. That said, you can address Kamala Harris as “MADAM PRESIDENT”!
p.p.s, the size of the crowd that gathers to cheer your entry into prison will most definitely be one of the largest crowds ever on Planet Earth!
I would suggest December 15, the day after the Electoral College votes are certified by the states when he has really lost the election. Less chance of him making another mess.
My dream about the events later this month. Honorable Judge Juan Merchan does the following:
Sept 16. Rules against Trump on his immunity motion.
Sept 16 (afternoon): Trump's DJT drops more. (note: as 12:40 today - Sept 3 it was $18.65)
Sept 18. Sentences Trump to four years (I have heard this was the maximum - hope not). But stays the sentence so that he can appeal to NY state courts. However, there is the matter of his contempt charges. Five days in jail starting immediately.
Sept 20. Trump's lockout on DJT stock expires. He dumps all of the stock making a lots of money.
Sept 20 (afternoon) All the investors with DJT stock are wiped out. It becomes a penny stock.
Sept 21. NY state attorney offices files emergency motion for the full $450M (plus interest) bond reinstatement from the Trump Org fraud trail.
Sept 23. NY motion granted. Trump released from jail. All his unpaid lawyers (including Rudy) file class action suit for back pay. All venues that have not be paid file suit against him.
Carol defamation case files motion for immediate payment of damages.
All Trump Org outstanding loans request immediate pay off.
That would be a very bad week for Mr. T. , and unlike the death wishes many harbor for him, this scenario is actually plausible. He'd be reduced to nearly Giuliani level pauperdom.
“While Trump isn’t able to start selling his shares yet, some other insiders have started shedding their stake in the company. Trump Media’s chief financial officer and treasurer, Phillip Juhan, disclosed last week he’s selling $1.9 million worth of stock, according to SEC filings. Trump Media’s general counsel Scott Glabe, chief operating officer Andrew Northwall, and chief technology officer Vladimir Novachki each also sold shares, according to Aug. 22 SEC filings. Devin Nunes, a former Republican congressman and Trump Media’s CEO and president, also sold off $632,000 worth of stock last Thursday.
While it’s not necessarily uncommon for executives to sell some of their stake in a company, selling at a loss—which they did—can be an indicator for trouble ahead.
“Since selling a stock at a loss is painful, an investor who sells at a loss must have particularly negative information,” Peter Kelly, a finance professor at the University of Notre Dame, wrote in a 2018 paper published by Oxford Academic. “And what you see is when stocks are sold at a loss, it predicts negative returns.”
"Donald Trump is in need of a massive payday to cover his legal expenses and presidential campaign, but he can’t tap into his Truth Social stock. At least not quite yet."
Instead of printing that letter on 8 1/2 x 11 paper, I had a printer-friend print it as a 30” x 120” poster. I folded it down to fit in a Priority Mail envelope.
So, PA is the only state in which the votes count. What kind of a democracy is this? Everyone knows it, and like guns, no one can fix it. But if Harris gets elected we have to try.
For me, speaking very selfishly, it's cool to be at the center of the electoral whirlwind. However, it is long past time for the electoral college to go. Why the hell should my vote matter more than a vote in California or Texas?
Please don’t forget how important down ballot voting is. Whoever gets into the WH (and please God it’s not Trump) the Democrats will need to control the both houses of Congress and as many state legislatures as possible.
In order to have anything close to fair elections, we MUST get rid of the ridiculous Electoral College. And the reds won’t let that happen (at least, not now). If at some stage in our future they’ll vanish, and we have at least two decent political parties, etc., maybe things will be much more democratic. I won’t be around by then (old). Or maybe I will.
I work in a blue-collar section of Delaware County, PA. During my daily commute in the fall of 2020 (yes, I was working from my office during the pandemic), I passed at least two dozen Trump signs. There were pro-MAGA and anti-Biden banners, flags, yard signs of all sizes, everywhere; one business even spray-painted a giant red "TRUMP 2020" on a dumpster outside their office. Today, I looked closely and counted the signs... and I saw ONE. The house I drive by that has "Burma shave"- type Bible verses posted along the road has a "Rigged 2020" banner flying above the front door. But none of the other 20-odd houses that had MAGA displays four years ago now have any Trump/Vance signage. Are they rethinking their vote? Are they embarrassed by their candidate? Who knows. But it feels like a tiny bit of hope, and I will take it.
I live in a red rural, blue city town in Washington State, close to white supremacy Idaho and I have seen less magat flags this cycle and more tRump for prison 2024, tRump is a felon signs and even the 10 things I trust more than Donald Trump. Also after 2 election cycles of my now 80 year old parents voting for the orange turd, and 9 years of my sister and I talking to them about tRumpty Dumpty and his evil ways, for the first time in their lives, they are voting for a democratic ticket! So I would take that tiny bit of hope and ride the big blue wave to the White House! 💙
Unfortunately in my neighborhood in the past week I've seen all the "old trumpers" starting to put up their signs. They just had some sort of TFG gathering of some sort right outside my neighborhood so I think that's where these people got their signs. But I walked the neighborhood and not a single Harris sign (mine is still on it's way). I'm trying not to get discouraged, in 2020 there were many more trump than Biden signs in my neighborhood yet Biden won this area handily.
I would say seeing less in your area is hopeful. I'm hoping my area turns a bit more hopeful here soon!! But my thought in 2020 is the same as it is now- trumpers are much more vocal than us non trumpers. And I mean vocal in the putting up signs, flags, putting shit all over their cars and that kind of stuff. Around here they sit on the side of the road with signs about once a week. You don't see that near as much from the other side. So I always count all the houses without his signs as anti trumpers and feel much better :)
Driving around the far northwestern suburbs of Philly this weekend, I saw so many trump/vance signs, more than in 2020 and 2016. I saw very few Harris/Walz signs; at least 50 trump signs to every 1 Harris sign. I know I fear for my family's safety and the safety of my home (for good reason that I won't go into here) so I won't post Harris signs, so maybe that's the reason some others are not displaying Harris/Walz signs. I commented to my significant other after he voiced disgust at the number of trump signs, that maybe all those lawns with no signage were for Harris but don't want to be threatened or harmed or their properties vandalized. I can only hope.
Same here in AZ. We live in a blue city, but we won’t put out yard signs because of the open violence here. Even cannot do bumper stickers - my car was spray painted in 2010 when I had Gabby Giffords stickers displayed. 😡
I’m in the purple strip of my California county between the predominantly coastal blue with red dot highlights to the west of me and deep dark ruby fascist white-supremacy red to the east. In 2016 and 2020, Trump signs and flags far outnumbered those for Democrats except in the bluest of neighborhoods countywide. This year so far a lot less of both, but the Republican-Democrat mix is about fifty-fifty. My theory is the Trump voters are still there but keeping a low profile because anything identifying them as MAGA is a big banner with neon lights that tells the world “Hi, I’m a racist misogynist moron and proud of it!” The Harris supporters have had enough of it and are slowly putting out the signs.
As did mine but not as a newborn. He was several months older with a dad who had to go to work and a brother in first grade so yes, it was mom who got to get up and try to get HER child back to sleep. This went on for months. I was a zombie and his father had the nerve to bitch about the house being a mess! Looking back, my ex is lucky he didn’t wake up dead.
If my state of Maine would just flip that one seat the maga path to victory would be that much harder. I don't hold my breath for that to happen but it's not impossible. We are a strong tradition of independents in my home state.
Driving in the Saco Valley in 2020, tRumpiness was everywhere apparent, and your homies re-elected Sue Collins to boot. We're lucky to have the EVs we have from the great state of Maine, which I love.
Babies often have their nights and days mixed up even without car rides. My second daughter wouldn’t sleep at all unless she was in a moving vehicle. That was a really rough time. It took about two months, but I don’t think I’ve ever been that tired since.
It's also useful when looking at that map to consider the flipside (discussed frequently when Biden was the nominee): if Harris wins PA, MI, WI, and NE2, that's 270. On a night where she wins PA, she likely wins those others too, and she wins without a single Sunbelt state.
So if Trump wins PA, Harris can still win but has an uphill road. If Harris wins PA, Trump probably cannot win. It's almost surprising to me that they're spending any money in any other state.
Smithley is the guru for PA politics and has a lot more information than someone like Silver ever could. He's plugged into campaigns down to the State Legislature level and sees their internal polling, and more importantly he knows how to read the actual data we'll be getting starting last week about registrations, mail-in ballot requests and returns, etc. by putting it in recent context by county. At the moment, pending the debate and other black swan events between now and November (and with only a tiny bit of hard data), he's projecting Harris by 2.
Safe travels with your precious Riley! Just remember it is impossible to "spoil" a baby by holding it "too much." A baby is a love sponge--she soaks up all the love you have especially when being held.
Bit of a downer reading Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" and "The Oracle" betting line, both having tRump with an edge in PA, *despite* a narrow Harris lead in the polls...Silver uses probability analyses for forecasting, and FWIW his models show tRump as *probable* winner. He argues that the Harris post-DNC "bounce" may have been negated by the RFK Junior's drop-out/tRump endorsement, as she was slightly ahead in his model before the DNC.
Well, it's who you believe, I guess, but I'm still very nervous.
Someone just told me Nate no longer owns 538. So is Peter Thiel funding Nate, and if so what is the website? Or is he funding 538? I stopped paying attn to polls several years ago, so am not personally concerned. However, I wanted to tell my friend the correct information about Nate these days. Thanks for any info you, or any of your readers can give me.
Nate and ABC had a big falling-out over 538, he left, new team took over, and Nate is now concentrating on his "Silver Bulletin" - reader-supported Substack platform.
I’ve lost all respect for Nate Silver. After the last few election cycles, I just believe that we need to put our collective heads down and work like hell. I suspect that polls are no longer representative of anything (if they really ever were).
Probability and betting lines are not useful in predicting elections. I gave link below to Joshua Smithley's Substack, or look him up on Twitter. He, along with Tom Bonier and others, have the useful data, which includes mail ballot requests, voter registrations, and starting in October mail ballot submissions.
Nate Silver is a professional poker player, not a statistician or political strategist.
Silver also relishes being a contrarian. He knows PA is always tight and he's seeing red, like he always does (at least since 2016). PA will be filleted by pollsters and phone bankers and candidate visits and dueling political ads for the next two months. I live in PA and it's overwhelming. Lots of people tune out altogether. Nate's been red waving, or at least red preferring, in every election since 2016. It's not a bug, it's a feature. He denies any breakdown his modeling in 2016 but has been visibly overcorrecting for the GOP ever since.
1 am to 4am? I believe that's called the Riley Time Zone. Have a safe trip and enjoy your visit. These days are precious!
For all the Trump campaign's squealing yesterday over a staffer emailing colleagues that NH is out of play, looks like he was right: the campaign has given up on NH. This spending scheme also explains Trump's sudden kissing up to Brian Kemp in GA. Amazing how people always forget that old adage 'Be careful who you stab in the back on your way up, because you might have to pass them on your way down.' A few weeks ago, Trump couldn't say enough bad things about Kemp, but now he's singing 'Baby, Come Back!'
As far as NC goes, Josh Stein has real momentum in the governor's race, and that's helping down ballot races. As Kamala Harris picks up steam here, I suspect NC will move from Lean R to Toss Up.
Probably not. I was just reading in a Chicago paper today how much money has been given to campaigns from big Chicago donors. It seems like they mostly reported on Republican donations. It seems to mention that a lot is going to Super Pacs. https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2024/08/28/2024-election-chicago-mega-donors
Jay, please take advantage of when Riley is sleeping to sleep also. As an adult you want to sleep during the night, but a newborn baby and said baby’s Ba need to keep similar schedules to stay alert, and sane! And hanging out with a sweet newborn in the wee hours of the night is quite special.
I don't know who's driving, but as a new parent I was the primary car driver and my wife struggled to sleep in the car. Fortunately, since i was behind the wheel, so did I! The good news is that it passes. Eventually. Hopefully, before Jay does.
New parent tip #1, and the most difficult one is to sleep when they sleep. It turns everything upside down but take heart, it only lasts for a short time. Soon enough she will begin sleeping on your schedule and not the other way around. Tip #2, lean heavily on your support people 🥰 Tip #3, savor every moment. It really does go so very quickly. We have warm weather awaiting you up here in NorCal!
Yes, sleep when the baby sleeps is the best advice but so hard to do when that's your only time to try to get everything done. That is when you learn to let things go or rely on others to help you with things like laundry or cooking/cleaning etc.
"her sleeping all day in the car!"
New parent tip #4, Keep plenty of gas in the car. You may be taking her on midnight rides.
My friends with new little ones say that putting their child on top of the clothes dryer and turning it on helps with the baby's sleep. The noise, warmth, and vibration takes the place of spending time and gas riding around in the car.
Be sure to silence the buzzer.
An old fashioned wind up clock wrapped in a towel and place next to the baby also helps them relax and sleep .
Put my 48 year old son in my old VW Beetle and he's fast asleep in 15 minutes and isn't cranky about the lost/wasted time when he wakes up =8-) .
-Nate
What a great tip (#1)! Where were you when I was a new parent?!?
My son took me on many 2am car trips. He was one of those babies who didn’t sleep until he was a teenager. He’s 45 now, and amazingly, he’s a wonderful person! I don’t for a minute regret not leaving him out in the wild to fend for himself, but it was a close call sometimes. 🤣 Enjoy every moment. They grow up way too quickly.
My son never slept through the night until he was six years old! He's married now with children of his own, and his oldest still doesn't sleep through the night at four years old! I guess what goes around, comes aroundl☺️
It should be noted that, according to Psychology Today, many children during the past decade have been unable to sleep because they are afraid there is a large, orange, slimy monster lurking in their closet.
That same orange devil with the strange hair lurks in my closet too. It keeps me awake shaking all night every night. He has a musky sidekick that makes strange rocket type noises.
Don't be scared. They're afraid of women.
Wow! You poor mommy!!
So funny! Thanks even if I am a childless cat lady.
I was right there being a first time parent when you were, learning this all the hard way! 😄
(Please excuse my foul language; Fraud Trump brings out the worst in people.)
August 17, 2024
Donald J Trump
Mar-A-Lago
1100 S Ocean Blvd
Palm Beach, FL 33480
Dear Piece-of-Shit Donald,
Let me take just a few minutes to explain why I would never, ever, ever, ever, ever vote for you......
Let me begin by saying that you are a blatant serial liar, you are the ultimate con, you are a fraud, you are a grifter, you are a total bull-shitter, and you are a scumbag. In my humble opinion, you are a racist, a misogynist and a total fucking asshole. And, a Hitler-adoring fascist as well. Almost every time you open your rotten, nasty mouth, you lie about something. You are a totally disgusting person.
And, you are Putin’s Puppet; Putin helped you squeak out a win in 2016, but his attempt to help you get re-elected in 2020, thank God, failed miserably. Putin is trying to get you elected for a second term; he knows that you will hand Ukraine to him on a silver platter and that you will pull the USA out of the NATO Alliance. In my mind, you are a traitor! A god damn fucking traitor!
And, you are a terrible businessperson. Every intelligent person in America knows that had you simply invested in the stock market every penny your KKK- racist father left you, you would, today, be a REAL billionaire many times over. The fact that you are not really a billionaire means that you aren’t a successful businessperson. The only two things that generated whatever wealth you do have today stemmed from two things. The Fake/Fraud/Con Apprentice reality TV show and the hundreds of millions of dollars Putin-directed Russian Oligarchs and Russian Mafia laundered through your condo projects.
Continue to demean women, asswipe. Continue your racist ways, asswipe. You will find out in November that the vast majority of Americans believe, like I do, that you were America’s Presidential Accident and that you are America’s Disgrace.
I hope you rot in hell, scumbag. Perhaps today would be a good day for you to go grab some woman by her pussy. Or shoot someone on 5th Avenue. Or call someone the “n-word” like you did during a planning session for an Apprentice episode. Or reflect on your memories of playing with your former buddy pedophile sex-abuser Jeffrey Epstein. Or invite a fellow racist and a fellow anti- Semite over for drinks and dinner. Or, join a march with your torch-carrying “fine-people” Neo-Nazi’s. Or, work on our next rambling, idiotic, nonsensical, hate-filled, divisive, dumbass rally speech. (I do enjoy listening to you make a fool out of yourself.)
It pisses me off that newspapers and news websites, all across America, don’t have the balls to call you out for the blatant liar you are. The title of the article: “Donald J Trump is a Liar, a Con and a Fraud”. You put up a post on TruthSocial that said, “I know nothing about Project 2025”. You fucking liar. After you said that, someone posted, in the Internet, a photo of you sitting next to Scum, Piece-of-Shit, Fascist Kevin Roberts (President of the Heritage Foundation) on a private jet on your way with Roberts to a Heritage Foundation conference, and you were a speaker at that conference. “Trump told the audience that the Heritage Foundation was ‘going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do.’" You god damn fucking liar.
Unfortunately for you (but, fortunately for Americans) your next “term” will be a prison term. I’ve reached out to Honorable Judge Juan Merchan to ask him to start your prison sentence on President Kamala Harris’ Inauguration Day!
Disrespectfully yours,
Joel
p.s., for intelligence/intellectually-challenged MAGAts (rhymes with maggots), President Kamala Harris’ first name is pronounced “, LA”. That said, you can address Kamala Harris as “MADAM PRESIDENT”!
p.p.s, the size of the crowd that gathers to cheer your entry into prison will most definitely be one of the largest crowds ever on Planet Earth!
I would suggest December 15, the day after the Electoral College votes are certified by the states when he has really lost the election. Less chance of him making another mess.
My dream about the events later this month. Honorable Judge Juan Merchan does the following:
Sept 16. Rules against Trump on his immunity motion.
Sept 16 (afternoon): Trump's DJT drops more. (note: as 12:40 today - Sept 3 it was $18.65)
Sept 18. Sentences Trump to four years (I have heard this was the maximum - hope not). But stays the sentence so that he can appeal to NY state courts. However, there is the matter of his contempt charges. Five days in jail starting immediately.
Sept 18 (afternoon); Trump's DJT stock drops below $10.
Sept 20. Trump's lockout on DJT stock expires. He dumps all of the stock making a lots of money.
Sept 20 (afternoon) All the investors with DJT stock are wiped out. It becomes a penny stock.
Sept 21. NY state attorney offices files emergency motion for the full $450M (plus interest) bond reinstatement from the Trump Org fraud trail.
Sept 23. NY motion granted. Trump released from jail. All his unpaid lawyers (including Rudy) file class action suit for back pay. All venues that have not be paid file suit against him.
Carol defamation case files motion for immediate payment of damages.
All Trump Org outstanding loans request immediate pay off.
That would be a very bad week for Mr. T. , and unlike the death wishes many harbor for him, this scenario is actually plausible. He'd be reduced to nearly Giuliani level pauperdom.
“While Trump isn’t able to start selling his shares yet, some other insiders have started shedding their stake in the company. Trump Media’s chief financial officer and treasurer, Phillip Juhan, disclosed last week he’s selling $1.9 million worth of stock, according to SEC filings. Trump Media’s general counsel Scott Glabe, chief operating officer Andrew Northwall, and chief technology officer Vladimir Novachki each also sold shares, according to Aug. 22 SEC filings. Devin Nunes, a former Republican congressman and Trump Media’s CEO and president, also sold off $632,000 worth of stock last Thursday.
While it’s not necessarily uncommon for executives to sell some of their stake in a company, selling at a loss—which they did—can be an indicator for trouble ahead.
“Since selling a stock at a loss is painful, an investor who sells at a loss must have particularly negative information,” Peter Kelly, a finance professor at the University of Notre Dame, wrote in a 2018 paper published by Oxford Academic. “And what you see is when stocks are sold at a loss, it predicts negative returns.”
Source? (This I in quotes so I’m guessing it’s a cut-paste of an article?)
https://fortune.com/2024/08/30/trump-truth-social-stock-insider-sales/
Thank you, Doc
Rats scurrying away from the sinking ship? Or throwing T under the bus?
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/top-truth-social-execs-including-193113371.html
"Donald Trump is in need of a massive payday to cover his legal expenses and presidential campaign, but he can’t tap into his Truth Social stock. At least not quite yet."
You had me at "Dear Piece-of-Shit Donald,"
I'm almost asphyxiating here with laugh-tears. That wins the Intar-nets and everything else today. Thank you, Joel.
Damn good.
Instead of printing that letter on 8 1/2 x 11 paper, I had a printer-friend print it as a 30” x 120” poster. I folded it down to fit in a Priority Mail envelope.
😂😂😂🔥💙👊👏
So, PA is the only state in which the votes count. What kind of a democracy is this? Everyone knows it, and like guns, no one can fix it. But if Harris gets elected we have to try.
For me, speaking very selfishly, it's cool to be at the center of the electoral whirlwind. However, it is long past time for the electoral college to go. Why the hell should my vote matter more than a vote in California or Texas?
Please don’t forget how important down ballot voting is. Whoever gets into the WH (and please God it’s not Trump) the Democrats will need to control the both houses of Congress and as many state legislatures as possible.
…And local school boards.
Oh right there with you on this!
In order to have anything close to fair elections, we MUST get rid of the ridiculous Electoral College. And the reds won’t let that happen (at least, not now). If at some stage in our future they’ll vanish, and we have at least two decent political parties, etc., maybe things will be much more democratic. I won’t be around by then (old). Or maybe I will.
I work in a blue-collar section of Delaware County, PA. During my daily commute in the fall of 2020 (yes, I was working from my office during the pandemic), I passed at least two dozen Trump signs. There were pro-MAGA and anti-Biden banners, flags, yard signs of all sizes, everywhere; one business even spray-painted a giant red "TRUMP 2020" on a dumpster outside their office. Today, I looked closely and counted the signs... and I saw ONE. The house I drive by that has "Burma shave"- type Bible verses posted along the road has a "Rigged 2020" banner flying above the front door. But none of the other 20-odd houses that had MAGA displays four years ago now have any Trump/Vance signage. Are they rethinking their vote? Are they embarrassed by their candidate? Who knows. But it feels like a tiny bit of hope, and I will take it.
I live in a red rural, blue city town in Washington State, close to white supremacy Idaho and I have seen less magat flags this cycle and more tRump for prison 2024, tRump is a felon signs and even the 10 things I trust more than Donald Trump. Also after 2 election cycles of my now 80 year old parents voting for the orange turd, and 9 years of my sister and I talking to them about tRumpty Dumpty and his evil ways, for the first time in their lives, they are voting for a democratic ticket! So I would take that tiny bit of hope and ride the big blue wave to the White House! 💙
Unfortunately in my neighborhood in the past week I've seen all the "old trumpers" starting to put up their signs. They just had some sort of TFG gathering of some sort right outside my neighborhood so I think that's where these people got their signs. But I walked the neighborhood and not a single Harris sign (mine is still on it's way). I'm trying not to get discouraged, in 2020 there were many more trump than Biden signs in my neighborhood yet Biden won this area handily.
I would say seeing less in your area is hopeful. I'm hoping my area turns a bit more hopeful here soon!! But my thought in 2020 is the same as it is now- trumpers are much more vocal than us non trumpers. And I mean vocal in the putting up signs, flags, putting shit all over their cars and that kind of stuff. Around here they sit on the side of the road with signs about once a week. You don't see that near as much from the other side. So I always count all the houses without his signs as anti trumpers and feel much better :)
Driving around the far northwestern suburbs of Philly this weekend, I saw so many trump/vance signs, more than in 2020 and 2016. I saw very few Harris/Walz signs; at least 50 trump signs to every 1 Harris sign. I know I fear for my family's safety and the safety of my home (for good reason that I won't go into here) so I won't post Harris signs, so maybe that's the reason some others are not displaying Harris/Walz signs. I commented to my significant other after he voiced disgust at the number of trump signs, that maybe all those lawns with no signage were for Harris but don't want to be threatened or harmed or their properties vandalized. I can only hope.
Same here in AZ. We live in a blue city, but we won’t put out yard signs because of the open violence here. Even cannot do bumper stickers - my car was spray painted in 2010 when I had Gabby Giffords stickers displayed. 😡
I’m in the purple strip of my California county between the predominantly coastal blue with red dot highlights to the west of me and deep dark ruby fascist white-supremacy red to the east. In 2016 and 2020, Trump signs and flags far outnumbered those for Democrats except in the bluest of neighborhoods countywide. This year so far a lot less of both, but the Republican-Democrat mix is about fifty-fifty. My theory is the Trump voters are still there but keeping a low profile because anything identifying them as MAGA is a big banner with neon lights that tells the world “Hi, I’m a racist misogynist moron and proud of it!” The Harris supporters have had enough of it and are slowly putting out the signs.
"The baby decided last night she would pick the hours from 1am to 4am to never fall back asleep."
Yup, that's how it goes!
My youngest pulled these shenanigans as well. 😂
As did mine but not as a newborn. He was several months older with a dad who had to go to work and a brother in first grade so yes, it was mom who got to get up and try to get HER child back to sleep. This went on for months. I was a zombie and his father had the nerve to bitch about the house being a mess! Looking back, my ex is lucky he didn’t wake up dead.
🤣 My sympathies! Glad everyone survived.
My hubby often remarks he cannot fathom why women don’t just smother men in their sleep …
The electoral college needs to go
If my state of Maine would just flip that one seat the maga path to victory would be that much harder. I don't hold my breath for that to happen but it's not impossible. We are a strong tradition of independents in my home state.
Driving in the Saco Valley in 2020, tRumpiness was everywhere apparent, and your homies re-elected Sue Collins to boot. We're lucky to have the EVs we have from the great state of Maine, which I love.
Babies often have their nights and days mixed up even without car rides. My second daughter wouldn’t sleep at all unless she was in a moving vehicle. That was a really rough time. It took about two months, but I don’t think I’ve ever been that tired since.
Love you and Riley, Jay! Thanks for all the baby updates and wise words♥️
It's also useful when looking at that map to consider the flipside (discussed frequently when Biden was the nominee): if Harris wins PA, MI, WI, and NE2, that's 270. On a night where she wins PA, she likely wins those others too, and she wins without a single Sunbelt state.
So if Trump wins PA, Harris can still win but has an uphill road. If Harris wins PA, Trump probably cannot win. It's almost surprising to me that they're spending any money in any other state.
On the subject of analysis/predictions for PA, ignore Nate Silver (it is usually a good rule of thumb to ignore Nate Silver), follow Joshua Smithley: https://pennsylvaniapowered.substack.com/p/the-pennsylvanian-endgame?r=15lzy7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
Smithley is the guru for PA politics and has a lot more information than someone like Silver ever could. He's plugged into campaigns down to the State Legislature level and sees their internal polling, and more importantly he knows how to read the actual data we'll be getting starting last week about registrations, mail-in ballot requests and returns, etc. by putting it in recent context by county. At the moment, pending the debate and other black swan events between now and November (and with only a tiny bit of hard data), he's projecting Harris by 2.
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Thanks. Really helpful
Safe travels with your precious Riley! Just remember it is impossible to "spoil" a baby by holding it "too much." A baby is a love sponge--she soaks up all the love you have especially when being held.
Thank you so much for the update - it's very kind of you to take care of us while you're on this big adventure. Enjoy!
Bit of a downer reading Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" and "The Oracle" betting line, both having tRump with an edge in PA, *despite* a narrow Harris lead in the polls...Silver uses probability analyses for forecasting, and FWIW his models show tRump as *probable* winner. He argues that the Harris post-DNC "bounce" may have been negated by the RFK Junior's drop-out/tRump endorsement, as she was slightly ahead in his model before the DNC.
Well, it's who you believe, I guess, but I'm still very nervous.
Silver is now bankrolled by Peter Thiel. Take things he says with handfuls of salt.
He's also on a national tour to promote his latest book, "On the Edge", all about risks, less about election polling, etc.
Didn't know about the Thiel investment...huh.
Hi Jay,
Someone just told me Nate no longer owns 538. So is Peter Thiel funding Nate, and if so what is the website? Or is he funding 538? I stopped paying attn to polls several years ago, so am not personally concerned. However, I wanted to tell my friend the correct information about Nate these days. Thanks for any info you, or any of your readers can give me.
Nate and ABC had a big falling-out over 538, he left, new team took over, and Nate is now concentrating on his "Silver Bulletin" - reader-supported Substack platform.
I’ve lost all respect for Nate Silver. After the last few election cycles, I just believe that we need to put our collective heads down and work like hell. I suspect that polls are no longer representative of anything (if they really ever were).
Silver is not strictly about polls, but about probability in his modeling forecasts, so take his data whence it comes.
Probability and betting lines are not useful in predicting elections. I gave link below to Joshua Smithley's Substack, or look him up on Twitter. He, along with Tom Bonier and others, have the useful data, which includes mail ballot requests, voter registrations, and starting in October mail ballot submissions.
Nate Silver is a professional poker player, not a statistician or political strategist.
His probabilities aren’t really that impressive. Statistics can be manipulated by changing a few criteria.
Silver also relishes being a contrarian. He knows PA is always tight and he's seeing red, like he always does (at least since 2016). PA will be filleted by pollsters and phone bankers and candidate visits and dueling political ads for the next two months. I live in PA and it's overwhelming. Lots of people tune out altogether. Nate's been red waving, or at least red preferring, in every election since 2016. It's not a bug, it's a feature. He denies any breakdown his modeling in 2016 but has been visibly overcorrecting for the GOP ever since.
I can’t imagine.
1 am to 4am? I believe that's called the Riley Time Zone. Have a safe trip and enjoy your visit. These days are precious!
For all the Trump campaign's squealing yesterday over a staffer emailing colleagues that NH is out of play, looks like he was right: the campaign has given up on NH. This spending scheme also explains Trump's sudden kissing up to Brian Kemp in GA. Amazing how people always forget that old adage 'Be careful who you stab in the back on your way up, because you might have to pass them on your way down.' A few weeks ago, Trump couldn't say enough bad things about Kemp, but now he's singing 'Baby, Come Back!'
As far as NC goes, Josh Stein has real momentum in the governor's race, and that's helping down ballot races. As Kamala Harris picks up steam here, I suspect NC will move from Lean R to Toss Up.
Does this account for Super PAC funding expenditures ?
Probably not. I was just reading in a Chicago paper today how much money has been given to campaigns from big Chicago donors. It seems like they mostly reported on Republican donations. It seems to mention that a lot is going to Super Pacs. https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2024/08/28/2024-election-chicago-mega-donors
Jay, please take advantage of when Riley is sleeping to sleep also. As an adult you want to sleep during the night, but a newborn baby and said baby’s Ba need to keep similar schedules to stay alert, and sane! And hanging out with a sweet newborn in the wee hours of the night is quite special.
I don't know who's driving, but as a new parent I was the primary car driver and my wife struggled to sleep in the car. Fortunately, since i was behind the wheel, so did I! The good news is that it passes. Eventually. Hopefully, before Jay does.