197 Comments

Thank you! I took one look at that headline and decided to get rid of my NYTimes subscriptions. I really kept it for the cooking section--and they have cooked their goose with me!

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Wow, you lasted waaaay longer than I did. I cancelled my subscription months ago.

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I love to cook...LOL!

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You can buy an awful lot of cookbooks for the price of your NY Times subscription! Or subscribe to some online cooking websites like Epicurious/Bon Appetit (which is currently running a spring special of 50% off an annual membership) or America's Test Kitchen (free 14-day trial)

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Yes! I'm a fan of All Recipes and have the app on my phone.

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Check out food wishes by Chef Jon. I'm only invited to parties because I bring his pastrami chicken wings:-)

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Actually, one can get recipes for anything free online.

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Me too! But not that much... : D

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The NY Times cooking section is great if you like 37-step hamburgers.

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I personally have rarely found it necessary to use more than 26 steps when making a hamburger.

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I prefer medium-rare, 10 step hamburgers

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Stick it on a sheet pan.—NYT Pitchbot

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Me too.

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"and I don’t believe they are intentionally trying to skew the results against Biden."

I do. This latest poll removed any lingering doubt I may have had.

A while back I finally got fed up with WaPo and canceled my subscription but hung on to the NYT because... <thinking hard> ... um... because... ummm... Habit? Misty-eyed nostalgia at what a great paper it used to be? Hope that I was just being grumpy and the NYT really was still a source of actual news delivered without fear or favor? No longer; I'm done with the NYT.

To accompany Jay's post, here's Robert Hubbell's takedown (scroll down to the second half of the post): https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/the-last-piece-of-the-puzzle?publication_id=271358&post_id=144611453&isFreemail=false&r=9fqy2&triedRedirect=true

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Well this is the last straw. I'm cancelling the Times. I already subscribed to Jay and I think I will use the money saved for Heather Cox Richardson and a couple of others who actually analyze using facts and history. I don't need to support bias.

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I cancelled my subscriptions

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Bazinga👏🏻👏🏻

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I have done it the other way around. However, even though my daughter and I like to do the WaPo crossword puzzles together over Signal with screen sharing, she does not have a subscription but does them for free, so it is not necessary to have a subscription to do their puzzles.

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Precisely!

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The NYT seems to be nibbling on Faux News these days. After 50 years of working the NYT crosswords, I'm glad that I can get it through my local paper.

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Goose is not easy to cook. Was the Times recipe data as flawed as that in their recent poll?

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I think about it, but then today there was a great explainer about how Biden's new tariffs with China tech are different from trump's blundering. So I keep the faith that some good lurks in the hearts of men. If there is anything the NY Times does well, however, is keep one's mind alert to how bias works.

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I hung on too, despite their transformation to a Faux competitor. The final straw for me was a full page spread that claimed that "Biden and Trump were two great leaders, who simply had different priorities. Biden focused on the rest of the world, while Trump was fighting for hard working Americans." I thought to myself, "self, if you want to read this quality of news, you could watch Faux with mom." And then immediately cancelled my subscription.

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I subscribe to Matt Stoler's Substack Big, which is an anti-monopoly Substack and he covers things like that tariff effects.

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/

I don't always agree with him because there are ethical considerations that might lend themselves to protectionism, but still he is getting the concerns out there. He will cover both Democrats and Republicans in a non biased way on his issues.

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Whatever you think of protectionism and the use of tariffs, and I am sometimes of two minds about it, there is a huge difference between using it for a specific purpose, protecting fledgling industries, say, and thinking it is somehow a tax that China has to pay, trying to use it as some sort of cudgel having nothing to do with industries that needed protecting.

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I noticed this morning that Germany is freaking out about the US tariffs. Scholz is claiming this is not following International Trade agreements, but what agreements will be followed if Trump is in power?

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you can subscribe to just the cooking section which is what I did when I canceled

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I had that too, but cancelled all because I am not giving them a penny of my money. There are so many other sources for recipes I feel no loss.

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Good to know. Thanks!

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I canceled my subscription today. And I unsubscribe to the breaking news emails, which were a mental health hazard!

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I'm on the verge of canceling, despite the great cooking section. My husband refuses to believe that the times us anything but impartial.

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My fave and the best recipe they ever published IMO is the Maple Syrup Salmon. Easy and quick. Many of the other recipes are too labor intensive for anyone but a sous chef! LOL!

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Sharon, I made the Maple Syrup Salmon last night and it is truly the best salmon dish ever! Thanks for the recommendation.

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I'm so glad you enjoyed that! :) Easy, peasy!

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Agreed! I did that several polls ago, and because their coverage of the election has sucked. I got tired of writing to them and getting asinine answers in response that showed they totally missed the point of what I was saying.

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👏👏

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I canceled my NYT subscription a week ago. Good for you

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May 14Liked by Jay Kuo

Thank you, Jay! I read the headlines from the NYT and Washington Post every morning and think "well that's depressing". Then I ready the daily email from you and Heather Cox Richardson and feel much better. Thank you for all that you do to keep us informed!

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Hopefully this will make you feel better. Polling has been becoming less reliable for years. Part of the reason is people like me, who only uses cell phone and have it set to block all calls from people not on my contacts list. Therefore, no stupid robo calls, no solicitations for donations, no advertisers, much more peace.

So many people not available to get a representative sample for a reliable poll. I believe a better indication of the mood of the people are the results of recent elections where Dems are securing victories.

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One of the problems with the polls, which is not discussed, is who is likely to answer them. Most of the tech savvy people I know will not be giving personal information out over the phone, or by email to any strangers, because they do not know how their data will be used. In fact, on our landline and cell phones we never answer unless we recognize the number or are expecting a call from someone whose number is not in our system. Online we delete things like that. My mom, who has had a stroke might answer because she does not remember my injunction to her not to answer the phone if she does not know the number because she is worried that she might miss someone she forgot. This is how she has had people claiming to be Amazon dupe her into letting them search around in her computer for 90 minutes on more than one occasion. Not to discuss the data mining risks that giving info out to any poll presents is a problem. The biggest problem I have with the NYT poll however is not that it is not trustworthy, but that newspapers should be reporting news, not making it. They are doing this to make news, and I have ABSOLUTELY NO RESPECT for them doing that. It is against what they are supposed to stand for even more than incompetence. It is WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!

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We can’t use our phones, our computers or anything without all the blood sucking ticks and thieves and our government does nothing. Actually they do something. They protect the phone companies from all the research in Europe, South America and Asia showing adverse medical problems created by microwave radiation.

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How about the fact that the new iPhones basically require you to give face identification before it functions properly. So, I have a new phone and must type in my password each time to use it. A nuisance, but there are worse things. I already had to tell my job not to use my photo on their website or I would hold them legally responsible if anyone stole my ID. That had them remove it right away, after asking nicely did not. My daughter uses BeReal. She is a legal adult and I cannot stop her, but I don't think it is great to have her movements recorded like that. I mean, we, her parents have never tracked her, but all kinds of strangers can. Yeech! Creepy. She does not have the phone to her head though. That I instilled in her early on. No phone to your head. Radiation research not developed enough, but what is known is that it is not a good idea. She has wired earbuds instead.

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For three years or so I followed the research on high Voltage Overhead Electric Transmission Lines (HVOETL), microwave cell towers, and cell phone non-ionization radiation research and there is copious amounts of research showing medical problems created that is not just correlational but includes double blind studies that clearly indicates serious medical damage.

It is developed, just not known in USA because this research is suppressed by American research journals just as global warming issues are somewhat, COVID research becoming more so, harmful cigarette usage was. I had professional reasons for doing this.

Can’t interfere with corporate profits.

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I start with Heather Cox Richardson and Joyce Vance, then read Jay Kuo if posted. On each, I read the wiser comments, not the name-calling ones. (Why should we do what the other side does? We're not in kindergarten.) Then I skim headlines from the Guardian, Washington Post, and NYT, always in that order, to see what they're headlining and how. Thanks to Mr. Kuo for offering an amazing breadth of knowledge. That said, I still don't understand "The Times poll is intentionally Trump- and conservative-leaning, both in how it was structured and how it was promoted," if the Times isn't deliberately undermining the Biden administration with their headline.

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Add Robert Hubble to your list. An attorney who has the credentials to critique the SCOTUS and the entire legal apparatus. Thoughtful and encouraging strength and courage in well-written articles in your inbox. Jessica Craven is one who focuses on action: Chop Wood Carry Water is a name to search for her.

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Allison, I do read Robert Hubble too! Not sure I knew he is an attorney, but I appreciate his insights. Thanks for the rec for Jessica Craven. I like the title of her newsletter! That's what we're all trying to do, right?

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I start with the same people, and add in Jeff Tiedrich too. I need his particular brand of humor.

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Jeff’s humor is what keeps me sane amongst all the factual stuff (which I need and appreciate). His little barbs are hilarious, like when he wondered why Mike Johnson and his buds didn’t just go the extra Mike and glue dessicated beaver pelts to their heads outside the courthouse when they were all in dear leader cosplay.

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I totally agree! In fact, today I was laughing so hard explaining the Trump adult diaper line of commentary to my daughter, who was asking, "Is this real?" She does not know what to make of Jeff because usually I am laughing hard if I read her what he is saying.

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Joyce Vance and Robert Hubble read and cite each other! I also read Vance and Richardson, the latter providing an historical lens through which to view current events. The Guardian too! Have u checked out The Irish Times?

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Yes, I read Hubble and Vance too.

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I worry that this kind of coverage is going to be fodder for "the election is rigged" talking points once the votes are counted. MAGA sees all of these polls showing Trump winning, and they feel sure that he will based on these reports.

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I worry too

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It makes me Insane after everything just everything this sick guy has done and we have to worry tgat they can take the election from us? Again? No just NO

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Polls like this also energize trump's base. I'd love to see NYT run a story answering to the points Jay has made here.

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Exactly. Show me the poll that gives results OUTSIDE the margin of error and we can talk!

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They will claim the election is rigged no matter what.

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Chris Ortolano, or they will simply not believe the facts. Period.

Sounds like our local school board minority; they reject facts that do not match what they choose to believe.

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Yes, but when mainstream Americans here from a "trusted" source like NYT that Trump has it in the bag, they will be drawn in by The Big Lie 2024.

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Nancy, I had exactly the same thought! tRump and his cultists look at these polls and crow "hey look! we've already won! no need to have an actual election! the people have spoken!" And tRump's enablers are fine with this, because they see the prospect of another massive tax cut without the necessity of piling up billions more dollars between now and November and lighting them on fire.

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Exactly! That’s why they’re doing it, so they’ll say they have proof the election was rigged. So transparent! Hopefully, it’ll get fence-sitters & despondent people out to vote in droves.

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My understanding is that there is a growing movement that is looking at 2020 as a rehearsal for what is planned if Trump loses. With Mike Johnson as Speaker, who just went to “be with” Trump in court in NYC, btw, I am not feeling secure in the 2024 election process!

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May 14Liked by Jay Kuo

I have been clinging to my ledge waiting for you to post this column and talk me down.

Thank you for writing it.

I’ll come back inside now.

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Me too! I'm making myself a nice cup of tea.

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Jay Kuo: On Wednesday after the 1948 election (which I was alive through as a baby), Harry S Truman gleefully held up the Chicago Tribune: "Dewey defeats Truman".

Almost everyone knows this image:

https://www.trumanlibraryinstitute.org/dewey-defeats-truman/

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May 14·edited May 14Liked by Jay Kuo

I actually lost sleep last night over this poll, but I got up and did what you did - I checked the actually data. I slept better after that! Thank you for validating the results I found questionable, and for pointing out a few that I missed.

Oh, and Jay: For Clark county when they added in third party candidates trump is beating Biden by 12 points. Yeah, not happening...

One other point I did find curious was that trump is getting 20% of the black vote? I don't buy that for a New York minute.

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Or even a Nate Cohn minute!

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I don't know, I think Nate is kinda slow. Or just arrogant.

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May 14Liked by Jay Kuo

You didn't mention that they made half a million phone calls to get that sample. When I was in the survey research business (back when people answered their phones), a response rate like that would not be acceptable. You can't weight your way back to a random sample and the "sampling errors'" that are quoted are not applicable to their convoluted procedures.

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Wow!! Missed that data point. 500,000 calls to get their truly measly respondent numbers? THAT is the story, NYT, if you need a flashlight to find your nose on your face!! You can't fix a broken poll with shims.

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I looked for that data point and couldn't find it. Thank you for rooting it out! So in a survey of 4000 people they made 500,000 phone calls. One other irregularity was they made appx 600 per state but 1000 in PA. Also, about 150 more men than women in total.

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Thank you Jay! I can always count on you to alleviate some of my stress these days. In my experience, I have found that most of the Trump supporters that I know only read the headlines. When I ask them to give me an example of what they’re talking about, they never can. And, they know I will ask now. They no longer own the floor. It has effectively shut up a lot of them up, and I have to you to thank. You do such important work, and I am grateful to you for providing me with “the examples”!

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I’ll take your word for it that the poll was done in good faith. But the reporting on it is playing right into Trump’s hands when he says “the election was stolen” in November. Which the political desk of the Times wants. A Jan. 6 Part II.

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Thanks, Jay, for the reality check.

Something is wrong with Nate Cohn. I've learned to ignore him almost as much as I ignore anything Trump says.

You say:

"This is a curious framing. Likely voter polls are far more predictive and useful than registered voter polls. The New York Times surely knows this."

Cohn has written muchly on this (muchly is a form of "bigly"). He not only knows, but he's punking us all on purpose for a reason only he understands.

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If he's gambling that dems will respond to a challenge, it's a dangerous bet. Nothing fires up conservatives more than blood in the water.

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Conservatives who read the New York Times? Pass me smelling salts.

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Fox will tell them about this poll every hour on the hour for weeks.

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True enough.

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May 14Liked by Jay Kuo

I fear that even though these polls can be discredited with a closer analysis, if (when) Biden wins, Trump and his supporters will be out screaming about how that isn’t possible and the election results are wrong.

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I guess my only point of contention with this piece is that I’m quite willing to believe that the NYT is deliberately skewing such poll results.

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The common denominator in all of the NYT's awful polling stories and polls is Nate Cohn.

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He’s the worst

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The NYT is in large part responsible for Trump’s election in 2016 by their obsession with Hillary’s emails and the 10/31/16 headline announcing no connections found between Russia and the Trump campaign. My question is why is the NYT afraid of Trump? What does he have on them?? They have bent over backwards to soft pedal his criminality

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Why would they do that? Serious question.

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See the previous reply for one. Note also the paper’s editor being miffed about Biden not doing a Big Interview with them. Also the degree to which coverage of DJT drive sales/clicks in a way that no other candidate ever will (no matter how much DJT might abuse the paper or its reporters).

I have no idea if NYT is loading the dice on these polls. I can’t consider it beyond the realm of possibility, however, and in the current media and political climate I won’t rule it out.

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Nate Cohn is just the guy behind bad polling. Joe Kahn’s the guy who has turned his back on democracy itself

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That is my thought as well.

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First rate ! Thak you for the hard work and exemplary writing

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Thank you, Jay. Know what’s behind the polling, and vote.

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Great breakdown/explanation but it still makes my head hurt trying to make sense of it all LOL

For me saying things are still "close" is insane, skewed polls or not. It's insane to me that any person other than his loyal base want trump again. I mean I get there are R's that will never vote D even with a gun to their head but still. All this just reinforces the point- VOTE. That's the only way the orange menace goes away.

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And this is why I don’t read the NYT news anymore. I feel they no longer are impartial.

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I cancelled my NYT subscription over their dreadful political "reporting" and their op/ed page, which seems to be there to launder right-wing talking points (like the "population implosion" and anti-trans BS).

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