We Can Keep the House. But Control Will Come Down to Some Unexpected Places.
Two new polls show that it is not a foregone conclusion that Republicans will regain control of the House this November. A New York Times / Siena College poll, taken last week, gives Democrats a +1 advantage over Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot, with 41 percent polled saying they would vote for the Democrat, 40 percent for the Republican, and 19 indicating “other.” In other good news for Democrats, a Politico / Morning Consult poll out this week gives them a +4 advantage over Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot, with 46 percent choosing the Democrat, 42 percent choosing the Republican, and 12 percent don’t know / undecided.
The polls are somewhat surprising given President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings, which are in the low 30s in some polls. But they may also reflect current voter anger at the third branch of government—the Supreme Court—which most of the electorate now view unfavorably for having overstepped its authority and for acting as a political extension of the GOP. While it’s true that in the midterms voters tend to take their frustrations out on party in power, who is “in power” isn’t necessarily the Democrats when it comes to questions like abortion, guns, and the erosion of democracy. There is a widespread sense that the GOP is wholly responsible for regressive and oppressive laws and policies in these areas.
This therefore seems a good time to take a look at where things stand when it comes to control of the House and to bust two big myths about how the election will shake out—and importantly where control will be decided. For people who feel powerless or frustrated to prevent what “the rest” of the country is doing, I hope this can shake you out of that notion.
Only Around Three Dozen Races Will Truly Matter.
While technically all the House seats are up for grabs, control of the House will come down to just 35-40 races in key swing districts.
The drawing of district lines after the 2020 Census put 190 Republican seats out of reach, but there are also 162 Democratic seats that the Republicans likely will never win, according to experts at the Cook Political Report. Those are seats we don’t really need to think about for November, with Republicans holding a net 28 seat advantage from that batch. That feels unfair, but it is the map from which we must begin.
Looking then at the “likely / lean” seats, Democrats hold a slight advantage of 25 to 23 among this group. Let’s set that batch of seats aside as well, even though these can and do shift, and assume the Republican “structural” advantage over Democrats now lies at 213 versus 187, give or take a seat.
Cook Political presently rates 33 House races as dead even. Most of these are or were held by Democrats who captured the seats during the 2018 Blue Wave and managed to hold onto them in 2020. If Democrats won all of their 25 toss-up seats and Republicans won all of their eight, the House would be pretty much dead even, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi might even keep her job. It’s these races, with a handful of shifts in the “lean” column, that will determine who controls the House. While Democrats have the most seats to lose in this group, the narrowing of the race to these three dozen key ones at least makes our targeting and our work far easier.
The Swing Districts Are Largely in Blue, Not Red States
A common misunderstanding about the House elections and control of the chamber is that they are already pre-determined due to Republican gerrymandering, so what happens in the blue states basically doesn’t matter. But as the above discussion shows, nothing could be further from the truth.
Among the 33 races deemed “toss-ups,” a whopping 27 of them are in states won by Joe Biden. There are four toss-up districts in New York and three in each of California, Michigan, and Nevada. There are two in each of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. And there are hugely important single race toss-ups in Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington states. I want to emphasize again, these are all districts in blue states.
What that means is that folks looking to donate or volunteer to help hold the House often need only look to races in their own home states to make a huge difference. To see what races you might be able to impact through your own local efforts, look for races that may be in or near your state within the gray “toss-up” box in at this link: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
The issues of abortion, guns and creeping fascism are motivating women and college educated whites fairly strongly, particularly in the blue states. But among the wider Democratic base, ethnic minorities have soured on the party because of high inflation—and in particular high gas prices—along with a perceived lack of support by Democrats for working families.
To hold our House majority, we will have to mobilize and reach out to every demographic group, hammering home the message that the GOP, if given back control, will not only strip away important freedoms like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights but will also gut economic aid to working families and go after things like Medicare and Medicaid, all while doing nothing to control inflation. Come November, we will have to keep enthusiasm high among “rights” voters and then turn out in such numbers as to blunt continuing voter dissatisfaction over the state of the economy and Joe Biden’s job performance.
Four months is a political eternity, and a great deal can still happen between now and November. But to win, we need to first understand where we need to focus. Don’t assume the fight is somewhere else. It is often right in your own home state or very nearby, in races that will be decided by a few hundred votes. With that in mind, it’s easy to see how every one of us can help tip the elections in these key swing districts.
In future installations, I will highlight key swing races to support, especially where the Republicans have nominated Trump-supporting MAGA candidates who seem out of touch on things like rights and support for workers and families. Watch this space over the coming weeks and months, but start doing your own homework now by taking a look at those 33 races. The link again is here.
This data filled message neglects to praise Biden for his accomplishments (especially for the middle and lower-than-middle-class voters) and neglects to remind/inform voters that the US is not alone - by a long shot - with inflation and everything that goes with it.
Also starting off with Biden’s “abysmal” ratings certainly isn't going to attract the kind of attention that we need in order to pull this election off. People won’t remember all the “yeah but” numbers in this piece, but they will remember that one word. Abysmal. Biden and his crew and all the rest of the Democrats need to start tooting his and their horns.
If local elections are any indication, we’re screwed. The WA primary is in August, and all the candidates for House & Senate are loons. ALL of them, regardless of affiliation. Ditto Candidates for Secretary of State, Sheriff, & County Assessor. I’ll vote, of course, but I’m disheartened.